The Hawkeye State chooses

[barahona44]

The 2016 presidental campaign starts its playoffs, I mean primary season, this evening with the caucuses in the great state of Iowa.Thoughts, discussions, brickbats, predictions, winners & losers can be written about right here.My predictions are Trump edging out Cruz and Rubio and Tom's girl Hillary :) squeaking by Bernie Sanders.If Sanders doesn't win Iowa, I think that he is dead meat.

[Rookies]

1) Trump
2) Rubio
3) "Fries with that" getting ready for his post campaign job! :lol:
4) Nobody cares!

1) Bernie
2) Absolutely NOT Bernie
3) Nobody cares & "who is that guy, anyway"?

[NJ Stinks]

Can I be the first today to say I could care less what Iowa thinks/prefers?

Our primary system here is a joke. And so is each state getting two senators for that matter.

Of course, the length of these campaigns is the biggest joke of all. :bang:

[classhandicapper]

I'm the worst political handicapper in the world because I start with assumption that our population actually understands our problems so they'll know who is best suited to fix them. Not only is that a bad assumption, I'm pretty sure our population doesn't even know what some of the problems are let alone understand them.

I'm picking Cruz in a minor upset.

I'm picking Clinton because well, she's way too corrupt to not have figured out a way to win there given all the time she's had to prepare this time.

[MutuelClerk]

Can I be the first today to say I could care less what Iowa thinks/prefers?

Our primary system here is a joke. And so is each state getting two senators for that matter.

Of course, the length of these campaigns is the biggest joke of all. :bang:

Spot on!!!

[Tom]

Boxing Trump, Cruz and Rubio in the tri.
Bernie over Hillary straight.

[_______]

Cruz edges Trump, daylight finishes third with Rubio in 4th.

Clinton edges Sanders.

Betting on organization over enthusiasm in both contests.

[reckless]

Trump wins in Iowa.

Cruz and Rubio just too, too close for second, truly putting a damper on Cruz's overall prospects.

Cruz's last debate will prove to be his death-knell; he did horribly and showed a lot of supporters that he cannot win a national election. Trump will benefit mostly from this, with Rubio becoming his main foe now.

Now, Rubio needs to win New Hampshire or else. And, that's a big, big if despite all the media experts and GOP fan-boys are going all in for Rubio.

Rubio needs to say something different and presidential for a change. In all the debates and media interviews he has said basically little of substance; the same old, same old stump speech talk. He is not main event material, in my opinion, so he needs to show some brains and basic street smarts, which he hasn't demonstrated that he has any to date.

[classhandicapper]

Rubio is the most electable, but we'll get the same nonsense on immigration and trade that got us into these messes and caused all the anger in the electorate to begin with.

He's smart enough to learn from his previous political mistakes on immigration, but he's bought and paid for by the same people that want open borders and free trade that will continue gutting our jobs and putting downward pressure on wages.

I'd rather him than Clinton, but if he's the president it's more of the same. We need someone that will at least try to do the right things for the country. The word "nationalist" has a negative connotation, but we need a nationalist. The globalists have demonstrated they don't give a shit.

[Greyfox]

Of course, the length of these campaigns is the biggest joke of all. :bang:

Truer words were never spoken. :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

John Scott, of course.

[Rookies]

Truer words were never spoken. :ThmbUp:

I don't comprehend why this ridiculous, Barnum n Bailey sideshow isn't completely revamped into a max 30 day campaign for choosing candidates & one more for the General Election.

The present set up ensures that these payola filled wankers spend 50% of their taxpayer paid time running for public office.

Get up to speed with the rest of the Western democracies!

[Rookies]

John Scott, of course.

Wasn't that the greatest? :jump:

A sideshow act turning the tables on the boring,anal, establishment!

[Ocala Mike]

Cruz underperforms, and Bernie wows 'em.

Trump
Cruz/Rubio DH

Sanders
Hillary

[zico20]

I am going with Trump in a very, very close race with Rubio second and Cruz third. Long way back to the 4th place finisher, whoever that is. Thinking 27-25-24 percent wise. Nobody else gets close to double digits.

Hillary wins by 3-5 percent, thus starting the end of the communist's run for the WH. We certainly can't afford another president who wants to crush the middle class. The sooner Bernie is gone, the better.

[Clocker]

I don't comprehend why this ridiculous, Barnum n Bailey sideshow isn't completely revamped into a max 30 day campaign for choosing candidates & one more for the General Election.

It is called freedom of speech. The federal government has little direct control over the primary system. The primaries are run by the states, the campaigns are run by the parties and the candidates. If people, like many here, were not talking about it more than a year ahead of the election, the campaigns would not start so early. It's bread and circuses for the political junkies. The campaign process is driven more by the media than by the government.

[Tor Ekman]

The final Des Moines Register poll has been on the mark in 8 of the last 9, missing Santorum 4 years ago (although it did note his closing strength down the stretch). This year they have Trump winning with 28%, Cruz with 23% and Rubio with 15%. They have Hillary ahead of Bernie 45% to 42%.

[Kash$]

Boxing Trump, Cruz and Rubio in the tri.
Bernie over Hillary straight.

Little chalky Tom:lol: :lol:

[Tom]

Little chalky Tom:lol: :lol:

I'm hoping for a rebate.:D

[zico20]

Fox news showed a poll on who shares your values. Trump comes in with a dismal 6% for a 5th place showing. Rubio won the poll on who is the most likely to win in November.

[Rookies]

The final Des Moines Register poll has been on the mark in 8 of the last 9, missing Santorum 4 years ago (although it did note his closing strength down the stretch). This year they have Trump winning with 28%, Cruz with 23% and Rubio with 15%. They have Hillary ahead of Bernie 45% to 42%.

Well, looks like they sure muffed this one, albeit somewhat closer on the Dems side.

It would appear that some Republicans have woken up to the fact that a raving, nut case and someone who really pisses people off, ain't going to beat Hillary in the Fall.

[davew]

Well, looks like they sure muffed this one, albeit somewhat closer on the Dems side.

It would appear that some Republicans have woken up to the fact that a raving, nut case and someone who really pisses people off, ain't going to beat Hillary in the Fall.


Then why is Cruz winning?

[Rookies]

Then why is Cruz winning?

Evangelical strength and a very strong get out the vote machine. Blowhard, I suspect, did himself no favours, by ducking the FOX debate. Don't believe people liked getting stiffed.

But, the key is Rubio- as I suspected. All of the rest of the also rans, including Carson, should get out the Golf clubs. It's over for them and Rubio shouid pick up a lot of their chump change.

I really don't believe the vast majority of people like Cruz. Hell, I saw his wife answer questions on CNN in a polished, pleasant manner. She should be the candidate- confident, attractive and intelligent! Cruz always appears somewhat smarmy, smarter than thou and a trifle mean spirited.

It will be Cruz v.s. Rubio in the next couple of months, as sideshow Don bangs his clown drum into further ridicule. Watch both of them start to get much, much more media play, while falling away from every Trump fart.

[Clocker]

I really don't believe the vast majority of people like Cruz.

According to Gallup, 60% of Americans view Trump unfavorably. Only 37% view Cruz unfavorably.

P.S. 52% don't like Hillary.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188936/trump-negative-image.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/188936/trump-negative-image.aspx)

[barahona44]

On the Democratic side, Clinton has a razor thin lead which is slowly ,Chinese water torture style, evaporating.Has a very slight lead in delegates.Martin O' Malley has seven delegates he can release (it's being reported he's packing it in) .Let's Make A Deal time ? "Marty, looking for a job this November?" Sure, Hil, is Secretary of Labor a hard job?" "Well can you name the current one ,because I can't? (snorts laughter), it's yours if you want it"."Sounds good, the 7 delegates are yours. Pleasure doing business with you, Madame President"

[zico20]

Huckabee has called it quits. A few more should drop out after New Hampshire.

[highnote]

"Polls tend to underestimate momentum candidates." -- Leighton Vaughn-Williams, Ph.D.

Rubio's price in the betting markets shortened as the night goes on.

You could have gotten a bet down on Rubio yesterday as high as 13-2 ... and 7-1 a few days ago.

Cruz projected to win Iowa. You can still get 6-1 on him to win the nomination.

[_______]

On the Democratic side, Clinton has a razor thin lead which is slowly ,Chinese water torture style, evaporating.Has a very slight lead in delegates.Martin O' Malley has seven delegates he can release (it's being reported he's packing it in) .Let's Make A Deal time ? "Marty, looking for a job this November?" Sure, Hil, is Secretary of Labor a hard job?" "Well can you name the current one ,because I can't? (snorts laughter), it's yours if you want it"."Sounds good, the 7 delegates are yours. Pleasure doing business with you, Madame President"

She needs 2383 delegates to secure the nomination. You can't seriously think she is worried about 7 of them with more than 99% yet to be selected.

[highnote]

Anybody read "The Gamble"?

Huff Post quote:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/iowa-republican-caucus-winner_us_56b00db1e4b057d7d7c7f5c3

"Cruz’s top advisers have relied on the work of a handful of political scientists to shape their view of the 2016 race, though these scholars dispute some of their conclusions. Cruz’s team points to the dozens of scholarly articles written by Jim Campbell of the University at Buffalo, who has spent decades measuring the impact of swing voters on presidential elections, and to the 2013 book The Gamble, a data-driven account of the 2012 election by the professors John Sides and Lynn Vavreck. (When I tell the Cruz adviser I’m not familiar with the book, which I have since read, he looks at me blankly and says, “It is an incredible disservice to you and your employer and anybody who does what you do, the fact that you haven’t read that book.”)"

[_______]

"Polls tend to underestimate momentum candidates." -- Leighton Vaughn-Williams, Ph.D.

Rubio's price in the betting markets shortened as the night goes on.

You could have gotten a bet down on Rubio yesterday as high as 13-2 ... and 7-1 a few days ago.

Cruz projected to win Iowa. You can still get 6-1 on him to win the nomination.

Polls tend to underestimate the importance of organization. It's one thing to say you like someone. It's something else entirely to be willing to invest a few hours sitting around while party business is conducted just so you can write their name on a piece of blank paper.

Organization wins caucuses. I underestimated Rubio's. Glad to see him do well enough to exceed expectations.

[barahona44]

She needs 2383 delegates to secure the nomination. You can't seriously think she is worried about 7 of them with more than 99% yet to be selected.
Psychology, she does not want Sanders to win anything to prevent his gaining any kind of traction.As I write this, her lead is .8 and she has an 11 delegate lead, both up slightly in the last half hour.

[highnote]

It was announced in England two hours ago that Clinton won Iowa -- that would have been 6:30pm central time in the U.S.

[_______]

Psychology, she does not want Sanders to win anything to prevent his gaining any kind of traction.As I write this, her lead is .8 and she has an 11 delegate lead, both up slightly in the last half hour.

Sanders will win New Hampshire easily. Everybody knows it. I suspect someone might have whispered that fact in Hillary's ear.

Whatever happens in the next 8 days will get lots of attention because there isn't much else to talk about. But it won't change the inevitable grinding toward 2383 for the Clinton machine.

[Racetrack Playa]

delagates 21 to 21 tie, so far right , that's what I see ,
A win for the Bernmeister ,

[barahona44]

Sanders will win New Hampshire easily. Everybody knows it. I suspect someone might have whispered that fact in Hillary's ear.

Whatever happens in the next 8 days will get lots of attention because there isn't much else to talk about. But it won't change the inevitable grinding toward 2383 for the Clinton machine.You're right, I should have specified Iowa in my post.Even a thin win is a win and she would like to get rid of Sanders as early as possible.Besides, somebody has to be Secretary of Labor. :)

[Tom]

It was announced in England two hours ago that Clinton won Iowa -- that would have been 6:30pm central time in the U.S.


They are on metric.

[PaceAdvantage]

Well, looks like they sure muffed this one, albeit somewhat closer on the Dems side.

It would appear that some Republicans have woken up to the fact that a raving, nut case and someone who really pisses people off, ain't going to beat Hillary in the Fall.I have news for you. If Trump can't beat Hillary, then NOBODY on the GOP side can beat Hillary.

[PaceAdvantage]

Evangelical strength and a very strong get out the vote machine. Blowhard, I suspect, did himself no favours, by ducking the FOX debate. Don't believe people liked getting stiffed.

But, the key is Rubio- as I suspected. All of the rest of the also rans, including Carson, should get out the Golf clubs. It's over for them and Rubio shouid pick up a lot of their chump change.

I really don't believe the vast majority of people like Cruz. Hell, I saw his wife answer questions on CNN in a polished, pleasant manner. She should be the candidate- confident, attractive and intelligent! Cruz always appears somewhat smarmy, smarter than thou and a trifle mean spirited.

It will be Cruz v.s. Rubio in the next couple of months, as sideshow Don bangs his clown drum into further ridicule. Watch both of them start to get much, much more media play, while falling away from every Trump fart.Well, if he appears smarter than thou, then that's because he probably is...by all accounts, he's a brilliant man. Try as they might, lefties can't take that away from him. They have Alan Dershowitz to thank for that...

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, only a few short weeks ago, wasn't Iowa basically a given for Cruz? Yes, Trump made a late surge, but really, did anyone think Trump was going to beat Cruz in the Iowa caucuses? The fact that he beat Rubio should tell you something...

[Tom]

This small sample hardly is representative of anything.
The Donald is hardly toast.

[elysiantraveller]

I have news for you. If Trump can't beat Hillary, then NOBODY on the GOP side can beat Hillary.

This is based on?....

[elysiantraveller]

BTW, only a few short weeks ago, wasn't Iowa basically a given for Cruz? Yes, Trump made a late surge, but really, did anyone think Trump was going to beat Cruz in the Iowa caucuses? The fact that he beat Rubio should tell you something...

?...

Please explain?

[PaceAdvantage]

This is based on?....Based on the fact that the "same old same old," which I regard everyone but Trump on the GOP side to be a part of, definitely won't cut it against Clinton and the Dem machine.

Only Trump has a chance to beat Hillary in November. He's the only one who can surprise and pull enough new voters out of his ass to beat her.

[PaceAdvantage]

?...

Please explain?Explain what? If I am to take what you and others have been saying about Trump on here, he basically should have ZERO chance when the REAL VOTING begins. Well, the real voting began last night, and Trump finished second to Cruz, beating Rubio in the process.

To guys like you and certain others on here who don't like me to name them in my replies, this should NEVER have happened....but it did.

Which should make all Rubio supporters out there very nervous...in my opinion of course.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Only Trump has a chance to beat Hillary in November. He's the only one who can surprise and pull enough new voters out of his ass to beat her.

I like this: a prediction. I disagree (Rubio can beat Hill, imo), but you're putting a stake in the ground.

[PaceAdvantage]

I like this: a prediction. I disagree (Rubio can beat Hill, imo), but you're putting a stake in the ground.You know how annoying I am to you at times? You constantly criticizing my posts for not taking some massive stand (as if any intelligent person would at this point) is now officially equally annoying.

I didn't realize there were certain requirements for posting here.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You know how annoying I am to you at times? You constantly criticizing my posts for not taking some massive stand (as if any intelligent person would at this point) is now officially equally annoying.

I didn't realize there were certain requirements for posting here.

Just as I know annoy you, you annoy me. I just admit it. But I liked the stand you took. That was genuine statement, not sarcasm.

[_______]

Based on the fact that the "same old same old," which I regard everyone but Trump on the GOP side to be a part of, definitely won't cut it against Clinton and the Dem machine.

Only Trump has a chance to beat Hillary in November. He's the only one who can surprise and pull enough new voters out of his ass to beat her.

Republicans can't win in November if the only ones voting for their candidate are Republican's. There just aren't enough of us. They have to draw in independents and Democrats to overcome the demographic advantage Democrats have in high turnout elections.

Trump polls significantly worse in those groups than ANY other Republican candidate. Not better. Not a little worse. Significantly worse.

You may have a feeling about this. Lambo may have a double secret source that reinforces his feelings. But there is publically available polling that shows it isn't true. Trump is disliked more than he is liked by those who will vote in November.

[elysiantraveller]

Based on the fact that the "same old same old," which I regard everyone but Trump on the GOP side to be a part of, definitely won't cut it against Clinton and the Dem machine.

Only Trump has a chance to beat Hillary in November. He's the only one who can surprise and pull enough new voters out of his ass to beat her.

With all the evidence to the contrary... That being Trump is the worst candidate to face Hillary your defense is "your gut"?

[Greyfox]

Republicans can't win in November if the only ones voting for their candidate are Republican's. There just aren't enough of us. They have to draw in independents and Democrats to overcome the demographic advantage Democrats have in high turnout elections..

If Trump can't bring in the Independents and Democrats, none of the others in GOP can.
Trump is the Republican's best hope to beat Hillary.

[classhandicapper]

The best chance the republicans have of winning is on the anti open borders and anti free trade platform of Trump but with someone other than Trump pushing hard on those positions without all the distasteful rhetoric.

There are LOADS of independents and democrats whose jobs have gone overseas because of bad trade deals and whose incomes are stagnant because of the flood of new labor due to our immigration policies.

The hard core republicans and conservatives are going to vote for whoever the republicans put when the alternatives are an economic illiterate like Sanders and one of the most corrupt liars in America like Clinton. Go for the middle on trade, immigration, and defense and you can win.

[elysiantraveller]

Explain what? If I am to take what you and others have been saying about Trump on here, he basically should have ZERO chance when the REAL VOTING begins. Well, the real voting began last night, and Trump finished second to Cruz, beating Rubio in the process.

To guys like you and certain others on here who don't like me to name them in my replies, this should NEVER have happened....but it did.

Which should make all Rubio supporters out there very nervous...in my opinion of course.

1) He Lost PA... He didn't win. Though he probably will win NH.
1A) He narrowly defeated Rubio who has invested very little time in Iowa as that doesn't fit in which his strategy to the nomination. Everyone knew the Cruz camp was heavily invested in taking the state and the evangelical voting base there was a good stepping stone for him.

2) I said, in the middle of December, he will finish a distant second and possibly third. It happened EXACTLY how I said it would.

3) This was a HUGE win for Rubio. He spent very little money and effort in the state and has solidified himself as the "electable" GOP candidate. If Kasich, Jeb, and Christie weren't running New Hampshire would be Rubio territory... its an outside possibility but it still may be.

Finally... Unlike the Monday Morning Quarterbacking I've been consistently on record stating Trump is a joke and that he will win very few if any primaries... also I declared Rubio the nominee months ago.

Your post is nothing more than a weird attempt at deflecting away from what happened because what happened is what I predicted...

[_______]

If Trump can't bring in the Independents and Democrats, none of the others in GOP can.
Trump is the Republican's best hope to beat Hillary.

What is this belief based on? Rubio polls far better than Trump among independents. Hell, Ted Cruz polls better than Trump among independents.

I'm not going to tell you not to believe whatever you want. But you should understand that there are facts that don't support this particular belief.

If Trump is the nominee, don't join the "they stole another election" chorus if he loses. Badly.

[Greyfox]

What is this belief based on? Rubio polls far better than Trump among independents. Hell, Ted Cruz polls better than Trump among independents.
.

Polls in recent years have significantly lost their predictive validity. I quit watching them several years ago.

[elysiantraveller]

What is this belief based on? Rubio polls far better than Trump among independents. Hell, Ted Cruz polls better than Trump among independents.

I'm not going to tell you not to believe whatever you want. But you should understand that there are facts that don't support this particular belief.

If Trump is the nominee, don't join the "they stole another election" chorus if he loses. Badly.

In forum about a sport which requires objectivity its truly baffling how much its lacking in regards to certain things.

Don't worry when Rubio wins the General those that didn't support Rubio will say anyone could have beaten her and those who are vehemently anti-establishment will call Rubio a RINO.

Happens around these parts.

[elysiantraveller]

Polls in recent years have significantly lost their predictive validity. I quit watching them several years ago.

No... you quit because you personally disagree with them. They've been very accurate so far. They were insanely accurate last General Election as well.

[Greyfox]

No... you quit because you personally disagree with them. They've been very accurate so far. They were insanely accurate last General Election as well.

Yeah sure. :rolleyes: Yesterday they predicted Trump ahead in Iowa.
You must be quite the wizard elysiantraveller to be able to read other peoples motivations as you claimed to do in the above post. :rolleyes:

[elysiantraveller]

Yeah sure. :rolleyes: Yesterday they predicted Trump ahead in Iowa.
You must be quite the wizard elysiantraveller to be able to read other peoples motivations as you claimed to do in the above post. :rolleyes:

Funny... I was able to determine a Cruz victory from those polls...

[Greyfox]

Funny... I was able to determine a Cruz victory from those polls...

And what polls yesterday (not several weeks ago) were predicting Cruz?
Show us the links please.

[elysiantraveller]

And what polls yesterday (not several weeks ago) were predicting Cruz?
Show us the links please.

Its a caucus state not a voting state. Apples and oranges. But hey... hang your hat on it if you feel you've made a "point" here.

[banacek]

And what polls yesterday (not several weeks ago) were predicting Cruz?
Show us the links please.

I don't think any polls predicted Cruz to win, but in reality few of them predicted Trump to win. Last two taken:

Emerson 1/29 - 1/31 298 LV 27 26 Trump +1
Opinion Savvy 1/29 - 1/30 887 LV 20 19 Trump +1

Trump by 1. That means no one knows who will win.

[Tom]

This was the Hawkeye Cauci - polls were not supposed to be right.
The purpose was to caucus and THEN decide.

But for Hillary.....deja vous all over again, almost.

[classhandicapper]

In forum about a sport which requires objectivity its truly baffling how much its lacking in regards to certain things.

Don't worry when Rubio wins the General those that didn't support Rubio will say anyone could have beaten her and those who are vehemently anti-establishment will call Rubio a RINO.

Happens around these parts.

I agree that Rubio is the most electable candidate on the republican side, but IMO he's not a good candidate if we want to solve our problems.

He couldn't have been any more open borders than he was until the political winds went against that position and caused him to flip.

He's an overly aggressive interventionalist neo-con on foreign policy.

He's in the hip pocket of Goldman Sachs to a way greater extent than even Cruz. That's more or less like having the demons of Hell jumping on your bandwagon.

He's been aggressively for all the bad trade deals including fast tracking them for Obama.

The best things that can be said about him is that he bright, attractive, Hispanic, electable, more competent than Obama, and less corrupt than Clinton. I hate to say it, but that's not fixing our country.

[elysiantraveller]

I don't think any polls predicted Cruz to win, but in reality few of them predicted Trump to win. Last two taken:

Emerson 1/29 - 1/31 298 LV 27 26 Trump +1
Opinion Savvy 1/29 - 1/30 887 LV 20 19 Trump +1

Trump by 1. That means no one knows who will win.

Virtually every poll was within the margin of error. Its a caucus state. Actually having a real life campaign is slightly important.

[highnote]

Is it better to finish second -- below expectations, or finish third -- above expectations?

[elysiantraveller]

Is it better to finish second -- below expectations, or finish third -- above expectations?

If your expectation was to win then finishing second is a tremendous blow. When a campaign is predicated on your "winning" at everything and your record is 0-1 its a blow. No one reminds me how much better Trump is doing than everyone else but Trump. Not even the folks on here.

[Ocala Mike]

Gotta believe Rubio is now the "wiseguy horse" in the race - feel that he is the one of the three that the Dems want to face the least.

[elysiantraveller]

Gotta believe Rubio is now the "wiseguy horse" in the race - feel that he is the one of the three that the Dems want to face the least.

A few on here have been declaring him the nominee for months now. You are absolutely correct on your second point.

[barahona44]

One thing about Trump is that yesterday afternoon he was saying he was going to win and when he lost he said, well nobody expected me to win when most polls taken in the last week had him winning.Sounds like the spin doctors are at work on his campaign.I still think he will win the nomination but it will be a bigger struggle then he envisioned.

[Rookies]

Gotta believe Rubio is now the "wiseguy horse" in the race - feel that he is the one of the three that the Dems want to face the least.

Correct!

Easy to beat Trump, because he's the antithesis of the hoi polloi- a boorish, loudmouth Billionaire who has never heard of the words 'calibration' or 'nuance' to establish any position.

Easy to beat Cruz, who wants everyone to know that he's the smartest in the room AND the Universe and would prefer winning every argument by bludgeoning his opponent. Very unlikeable, looks like a beady eyed weasel & lacks charisma.

All the rest are has beens, too dull or to far out there.

BUT Rubio has the perfect combo. Smart, photogenic, part of the fastest growing minority group and reasonably calm. HE is the real opponent.

[highnote]

If your expectation was to win then finishing second is a tremendous blow. When a campaign is predicated on your "winning" at everything and your record is 0-1 its a blow. No one reminds me how much better Trump is doing than everyone else but Trump. Not even the folks on here.

Rubio finishing third was not unexpected. That he surged to the lead in the betting markets after the IA caucus is an important indicator. He has momentum.

The NH vote will be very interesting.

[highnote]

BUT Rubio has the perfect combo. Smart, photogenic, part of the fastest growing minority group and reasonably calm. HE is the real opponent.

The knock on Rubio is his age and experience. If he wins the nomination it will be interesting to see how he does in a debate against Clinton or Sanders.

[Greyfox]

BUT Rubio has the perfect combo. Smart, photogenic, part of the fastest growing minority group and reasonably calm. HE is the real opponent.

For the Republican ticket, I agree Rubio brings a lot to the table.
He's going to be Trump's biggest opponent when the field thins out.
Against Hillary, I have reservations.
He looks very youthful, even at 44.

[lamboguy]

there is no chance in life that Hillary won Iowa yesterday on the square. there were people going from one table to the next voting about 20 times each for her.

the same thing happened in the republican side but not to that great extent.

Trump had no idea what he was doing with that election last night and got his clock cleaned. i think he got a quick education in elections last night and don't think its going to happen again in the other voting parlor's.

[Tom]

So, Hillary wins it all by winning 6 out of 6 coin tosses.

Right. :lol:

[lamboguy]

So, Hillary wins it all by winning 6 out of 6 coin tosses.

Right. :lol:what coin tosses you talking about? were they playing closest to the wall?

[_______]

there is no chance in life that Hillary won Iowa yesterday on the square. there were people going from one table to the next voting about 20 times each for her.

the same thing happened in the republican side but not to that great extent.

Trump had no idea what he was doing with that election last night and got his clock cleaned. i think he got a quick education in elections last night and don't think its going to happen again in the other voting parlor's.

This kind of opinion can only exist in a fact free vacuum. Democrats in Iowa caucus by standing in rooms (or corners of rooms) to support a particular candidate. If a candidate doesn't get at least 15% of the attendees at that particular caucus, no delegates will be awarded and they can switch to a 2nd choice candidate. There are no paper ballots to be cast 20+ times.

Republican's, if they are willing to sit through up to 2 hours of party business, do cast a paper ballot which is counted with the result announced to the attendees immediately. It's harder to vote multiple times when you are sitting with your neighbors and anyone can compare the vote total to those sitting in the room.

I'm not suggesting that gaming this is impossible. Just far less likely than the supporters of a particular candidate using cheating as an excuse for their failure to organize their own supporters.

[Clocker]

This kind of opinion can only exist in a fact free vacuum. Democrats in Iowa caucus by standing in rooms (or corners of rooms) to support a particular candidate. If a candidate doesn't get at least 15% of the attendees at that particular caucus, no delegates will be awarded and they can switch to a 2nd choice candidate. There are no paper ballots to be cast 20+ times.

You don't think the Clintons can figure out how to cheat on a head-count vote? :rolleyes:

[Fager Fan]

there is no chance in life that Hillary won Iowa yesterday on the square. there were people going from one table to the next voting about 20 times each for her.

the same thing happened in the republican side but not to that great extent.

Trump had no idea what he was doing with that election last night and got his clock cleaned. i think he got a quick education in elections last night and don't think its going to happen again in the other voting parlor's.

He did not get his clock cleaned. I love how all the know it all's act as though he got 1%. He was a close second, and he with two others were open lengths clear if the rest of the field.

[Fager Fan]

So, Hillary wins it all by winning 6 out of 6 coin tosses.

Right. :lol:

What are the odds of that? Anyone?

And how ridiculous is it that we should pay attention to elections decided on coin tosses?

Stupid, antiquated system which gives voice to the machines instead of the people. Give us one nationwide primary day. That's all we need.

[PaceAdvantage]

Republicans can't win in November if the only ones voting for their candidate are Republican's. There just aren't enough of us. They have to draw in independents and Democrats to overcome the demographic advantage Democrats have in high turnout elections.

Trump polls significantly worse in those groups than ANY other Republican candidate. Not better. Not a little worse. Significantly worse.

You may have a feeling about this. Lambo may have a double secret source that reinforces his feelings. But there is publically available polling that shows it isn't true. Trump is disliked more than he is liked by those who will vote in November.I'm also drawing on people I know in my own life...life-long Democrats in fact...who are seriously considering Trump...highly educated people in fact...might just be a NY thing though...who knows...

Polls are always right as we have seen...

[reckless]

Bottom line, in our electoral system Iowa is the least significant of all the states.

For 11 months of the year no one talks to Iowans, no one cares about Iowans, no one even wants to be seen in Iowa.

But for just one lousy month, every four years for heaven's sake, the whole political world becomes unglued, accompanied by their partners in crime, the media.

Iowa can keep its GMO corn, it's greasy mayonnaise drowned fried pork sandwiches and its welfare pimps in the ethanol industry.

They all are 'Conservative' phonies of the highest order.

[PaceAdvantage]

With all the evidence to the contrary... That being Trump is the worst candidate to face Hillary your defense is "your gut"?Polls have never been considered evidence. You poo-pooed the polls when they kept showing how popular Trump was getting...so now I poo-poo your polls that show that everyone and their mother-in-law hates Trump...

Nobody is amazed Trump finished 2nd in Iowa? Really?

It absolutely AMAZES me that Trump's second place finish is being seen by some on here as some sort of DEATH KNELL, when in all reality, it's kind of a spectacular achievement when you step back and really think of it.

[PaceAdvantage]

1) He Lost PA... He didn't win. Though he probably will win NH.
1A) He narrowly defeated Rubio who has invested very little time in Iowa as that doesn't fit in which his strategy to the nomination. Everyone knew the Cruz camp was heavily invested in taking the state and the evangelical voting base there was a good stepping stone for him.

2) I said, in the middle of December, he will finish a distant second and possibly third. It happened EXACTLY how I said it would.

3) This was a HUGE win for Rubio. He spent very little money and effort in the state and has solidified himself as the "electable" GOP candidate. If Kasich, Jeb, and Christie weren't running New Hampshire would be Rubio territory... its an outside possibility but it still may be.

Finally... Unlike the Monday Morning Quarterbacking I've been consistently on record stating Trump is a joke and that he will win very few if any primaries... also I declared Rubio the nominee months ago.

Your post is nothing more than a weird attempt at deflecting away from what happened because what happened is what I predicted...One of us has slipped way of the reality zone, and it ain't me.

HUGE WIN for Rubio? IOWA? :lol:

Sad the lengths some will go....

In the same vein, I'll say that finishing 2nd was a UUUUGGGGEEEE win for Trump....nobody thought he'd even be in the race at this point, let alone finish SECOND in Freakin' I O W A ....WOW...he's just going to roll now that quirky I O W A is out of the way....

[PaceAdvantage]

Funny... I was able to determine a Cruz victory from those polls...I can guarantee you one thing. If Trump had won I O W A yesterday, there is no way I would be thumping my chest around here like you have been doing for MULTIPLE posts so far...as if it means anything.

What's the delegate count so far?

Cruz 8
Trump 7
Rubio 7


WOW! Start shoveling the dirt on Trump... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

BTW, congrats elysiantraveller...I'm sorry I have not until this point acknowledged your superior political handicapping skills.

I had no idea you and I and the rest of us were in some sort of contest...I guess that's why thask and Saratoga Mike (ooops...there I go again...mentioning SM) are on my ass for making wishy-washy prognostications.... :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

I said that Rubio will be the GOP candidate a while back, and I stand by that.
Very often, what I think will happen opposes what I want to happen.
This is one of those situations. I believe Rubio is much more electable than
either Trump or Cruz.

Cracks me up seeing the quote from Trump saying that skipping the debate
probably cost him a win in Iowa. Horse pucky! His failure to even slightly
resemble a religious person cost him far more in that state. Cruz benefited
from that and, even though the people of Iowa are more religious than most,
Trump really suffered. He doesn't enjoy losing, now, does he?

Rubio's showing was strong.
That trend will continue in the month's ahead.

[PaceAdvantage]

Rubio's showing was strong?

You just went through the effort of telling us how much religion plays a part in Iowa.

The least religious guy of them all finished SECOND...and that's seen as an utter failure and the start of his downfall.

Yet the guy who is way more religious then Trump finishes behind Trump, yet this is seen as some sort of huge victory.

I'm not ashamed to say at this point, I have no idea what the hell some of you are attempting to sell. :lol:

[reckless]

Correct!

Easy to beat Trump, because he's the antithesis of the hoi polloi- a boorish, loudmouth Billionaire who has never heard of the words 'calibration' or 'nuance' to establish any position.

Easy to beat Cruz, who wants everyone to know that he's the smartest in the room AND the Universe and would prefer winning every argument by bludgeoning his opponent. Very unlikeable, looks like a beady eyed weasel & lacks charisma.

All the rest are has beens, too dull or to far out there.

BUT Rubio has the perfect combo. Smart, photogenic, part of the fastest growing minority group and reasonably calm. HE is the real opponent.

Since every Canadian I've ever met always talk and act like they are the smartest people in the room, such as yourself, I figured you'd be more empathetic toward Ted Cruz... :lol:

As for Trump's 'boorishness', Canada has nuanced themselves into a totalitarian country where free speech is denied and individualism and national sovereignty is quickly on the way out. Your cowardly new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau already signed Canada's death warrant by publicly rolling out the red carpet to every Syrian 'refugee' and Islamo terrorist on earth, so the clock is now ticking.

It is no wonder that little pretty boys with a history of lying and zero accomplishments in the real world -- in addition to a low level of testosterone -- such as Marco Rubio (and Justin Trudeau) -- have earned your kudos.

[Rookies]

It is no wonder that little pretty boys with a history of lying and zero accomplishments in the real world -- in addition to a low level of testosterone -- such as Marco Rubio (and Justin Trudeau) -- have earned your kudos.

FYI, didn't vote for the latter and would never vote for the former! ;)

The only person I'd vote for is the old man whose political philosophy is closet to mine and most importantly- hasn't whored himself out to the Capone like PACs.

[horses4courses]

Rubio's showing was strong?

You just went through the effort of telling us how much religion plays a part in Iowa.

The least religious guy of them all finished SECOND...and that's seen as an utter failure and the start of his downfall.

Yet the guy who is way more religious then Trump finishes behind Trump, yet this is seen as some sort of huge victory.

I'm not ashamed to say at this point, I have no idea what the hell some of you are attempting to sell. :lol:


Consider this.
A good portion of people who vote, do so like they are at the mutuel window.
They want to be on a winner, just as long as that candidate's message is not
completely opposed to the voter's M.O. - Iowa is no different than anywhere
else when it comes to favorite backers. Not everyone does it, but a significant percentage does.

Rubio was barely on the ratings chart before last night.
The religion factor hurt Trump, but his poll numbers were so strong
before last night's event, that he had a lot of momentum going for him.
He lost, and yes, Rubio's showing was strong.

[elysiantraveller]

One of us has slipped way of the reality zone, and it ain't me.

HUGE WIN for Rubio? IOWA? :lol:

Sad the lengths some will go....

In the same vein, I'll say that finishing 2nd was a UUUUGGGGEEEE win for Trump....nobody thought he'd even be in the race at this point, let alone finish SECOND in Freakin' I O W A ....WOW...he's just going to roll now that quirky I O W A is out of the way....

Do you not actually take in anything I say? Rubio.spent very little time and effort in Iowa. Winning in Iowa was never the "must win" it was for Cruz and to a lesser extent Trump. For the "establishment" to coalesce behind him in that way was huge. Those votes came from somewhere. They came from the establishment and Trump camps.

Since the summer we've been talking about how if the standard candidates were to drop out and falter Trump would fade as they would form around one guy. I was wrong in that it's taking longer than I expected but it's happening now. :cool:

Rubio will be the guy... I, along with a few others on here, have been saying it for months. It's fairly obvious because we are avle to remove our own bias' from consideration. Hell, Rubio isn't even my 1st or 2nd choice but he is the nominee.

I'm sure everyone will be on here yakking away when Trump wins NH. I'm expecting it. You can post your delegate counts then. I won't be eating crow in the long run. :cool: You won't either of course since you never really say anything just disagree with the realist and pragmatic posters on here for the sake of doing it.

[elysiantraveller]

Polls have never been considered evidence. You poo-pooed the polls when they kept showing how popular Trump was getting...so now I poo-poo your polls that show that everyone and their mother-in-law hates Trump...

I have not poo pooed polls. Not at all actually. I've said Trump won't be the nominee and that he polls so badly demographically in certain areas he has ZERO chance of beating Hillary.

And mostly I've made fun of his fans because they deny reality at every turn. We've got thousands of posts here to prove it. :D

[PaceAdvantage]

You won't either of course since you never really say anything just disagree with the realist and pragmatic posters on here for the sake of doing it.Right...I just post to disagree...I don't believe anything I type...

If that's the case, then why don't you see me disagreeing with what many call the "vast majority" here on PA off-topic...the "right-wingers?"

I could have an absolute field day with them if my only goal was to disagree with someone, no matter the topic.

[_______]

I'm also drawing on people I know in my own life...life-long Democrats in fact...who are seriously considering Trump...highly educated people in fact...might just be a NY thing though...who knows...

Polls are always right as we have seen...

I'm okay if you want to dismiss head to head polling of possible November match ups (Trump-Clinton, Rubio-Sanders, etc.). Those are subject to huge moves based on the news cycle and 9 months out have poor correlation.

What I think is a mistake is dismissing favoribility polling where voters are asked if they have an overall positive or negative impression of a particular candidate. Those ratings tend to have a stickiness that is less likely to go away.

Can Donald Trump convince large sectors of the electorate whose current view of him is negative? It's possible. But I'll note that the numbers I've looked at haven't changed all that much since June. I don't think people are unfamiliar with Trump after years of reality TV and months of a campaign. I'm not sure he's going to get a chance to make a second impression.

Regarding Iowa, the issue was one of managing expectations. Trump was the one who called everyone else losers and stated he would be the winner we all wanted. That is why a narrow win by Cruz is being viewed as a big loss for Trump. Rubio, on the other hand, was expected to be in the low to possibly high teens. That is why his finishing just behind Trump in the low 20's is seen as a win.

Iowa may be insignificant but it is the first ground test of a campaign organization. I'm really looking forward to seeing what happens in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina before the real campaign starts with the SEC primaries.

[PaceAdvantage]

Was Trump himself ever guaranteeing victory in Iowa or anything even close to a guarantee?

[_______]

"Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful - and, by the way, a very expensive waste of time"

Guarentee? No.

But the danger of building a campaign around the idea of being a "winner" is that people might expect that you win regardless of any actual guarentee.

[PaceAdvantage]

"Unless I win, I would consider this a big, fat, beautiful - and, by the way, a very expensive waste of time"

Guarentee? No.

But the danger of building a campaign around the idea of being a "winner" is that people might expect that you win regardless of any actual guarentee.So he was specifically talking about the Iowa primary in the first line quoted above, or the election as a whole?

[_______]

So he was specifically talking about the Iowa primary in the first line quoted above, or the election as a whole?

He was addressing a crowd in Iowa. I don't have additional context. On the road right now. Wii get back to this in a few hours.

[Greyfox]

He's said before several times that if he doesn't become President, this whole thing will have been a waste of time and energy.

[elysiantraveller]

So he was specifically talking about the Iowa primary in the first line quoted above, or the election as a whole?

You put a lot of effort into defending and/or interpreting Trump's statements...

[PaceAdvantage]

You put a lot of effort into defending and/or interpreting Trump's statements...And you put a lot of effort into beating your chest about your prognostication skills regarding Mr. Evangelical, Ted Cruz, winning Iowa.

I'm not interpreting anything in this instance by the way. It should be the easiest thing in the world to answer the question I had about his statement.

I'm pretty much guessing by the responses thus far that he wasn't talking about Iowa specifically, but his campaign as a whole.

Thanks.

[Tom]

I heard he said he probably would not win Iowa, but he WANTED very much to win it. That seems reasonable to me.

[zico20]

Rand Paul just dropped out of the race. I think this helps Cruz and Rubio just a little bit. As the field shrinks in size, the one most hurt will be Trump.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Hopefully Paul leaving will get Johnson out of the grow room and into the race finally so I can have someone to at least kind of support as an alternative.

[classhandicapper]

I finally started warming up to Rand Paul after having been a huge Ron Paul fan for a long time and then Rand drops out. It figures. It's hopeless. I'm just going to short the market and root for Armageddon to get here sooner rather than later.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Okay, apparently he did join the race a few weeks ago and left the grow room in order to do so. Let me amend that to hopefully he does something with his campaign other than announce on FBN and tweet about other candidates.

[PaceAdvantage]

Santorum is also suspending his campaign, which is code word for dropping out... :lol:

I guess the RNC is pushing these guys off the plank in order to turbo charge the perceived anti-Trump and pro-Rubio momentum that started picking up steam Monday night...might be their last chance to topple ol' Donny-boy so it's full steam ahead...everybody off!

Gots to convert those also-ran supporters to Rubio supporters while the iron is hot!

[elysiantraveller]

Santorum is also suspending his campaign, which is code word for dropping out... :lol:

I guess the RNC is pushing these guys off the plank in order to turbo charge the perceived anti-Trump and pro-Rubio momentum that started picking up steam Monday night...might be their last chance to topple ol' Donny-boy so it's full steam ahead...everybody off!

Gots to convert those also-ran supporters to Rubio supporters while the iron is hot!

Paul and Santorum voters aren't going to Rubio. Makes for good conspiracy though...

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/e0/8a/be/e08abe33e06a8417779f8e12b58b0b83.jpg
[/list]

[classhandicapper]

Paul and Santorum voters aren't going to Rubio. Makes for good conspiracy though...



Santorum support should go to Cruz or Carson, but if Carson starts fading further, most of it will go to Cruz. Santorum had very little support anyway. So more important to Cruz is what happens with Carson.

Paul is the libertarian wing. Some of those people will be attracted to Cruz on the constitution and small government issues, but they could be very turned off by his foreign policy. So let's say a portion of Paul's support goes to Cruz and some may go to a guy like Kasich (at least through NH).

Rubio needs for Kasich, Bush, and Christie to drop out, but those guys aren't going anywhere until after NH. The big question is who among those 4 does really well in NH. If it's not Rubio, then Rubio is back in trouble because it will encourage whoever among the 4 does well to continue and HE might become the momentum candidate to stop Trump and Cruz instead of Rubio.

Right now everyone thinks the establishment lane is going to consolidate around Rubio because of his performance in Iowa. Maybe that's likely, but it's not a foregone conclusion until after NH because quite a few candidates have been focusing most of their energy on NH, not Iowa. One could break out and finish a strong second.

[elysiantraveller]

Right now everyone thinks the establishment lane is going to consolidate around Rubio because of his performance in Iowa. Maybe that's likely, but it's not a foregone conclusion until after NH because quite a few candidates have been focusing most of their energy on NH, not Iowa. One could break out and finish a strong second.

We agree on my original point. Paul and Santorum voters aren't jumping on the Rubio bandwagon.

As for your last paragraph sure I guess its plausible that the traditional voters could break to one of the other 3 candidates but its extremely unlikely. At some point that average everyday GOP voter bloc was going to break and all indications since September have shown that its going to Rubio. Iowa was the just the watershed moment. Its extremely unlikely there would be a reversal of that.

I say this and out of the 4 we are discussing Rubio would likely be my 3rd choice. Its just way the cookie crumbles, has crumbled, since the end of last summer.

[_______]

So he was specifically talking about the Iowa primary in the first line quoted above, or the election as a whole?

Getting back to you. I am unable to find any further context for the original quote posted. I agree that, by itself, it's unclear he is speaking of Iowa specifically. I did, however, find this:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/iowa-caucus-2016-live-updates/2016/02/donald-trump-iowa-caucus-2016-win-218550

That does appears to be a prime example of how not to manage expectations.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Santorum voters may or may not be going to Rubio, but the candidate is.

“So thankful & grateful for your support. Just not our year. So today please join me in supporting @marcorubio,”

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/rick-santorum-drops-out-of-presidential-race-192243397.html

[reckless]

Santorum support should go to Cruz or Carson, but if Carson starts fading further, most of it will go to Cruz. Santorum had very little support anyway. So more important to Cruz is what happens with Carson.

Paul is the libertarian wing. Some of those people will be attracted to Cruz on the constitution and small government issues, but they could be very turned off by his foreign policy. So let's say a portion of Paul's support goes to Cruz and some may go to a guy like Kasich (at least through NH).

Rubio needs for Kasich, Bush, and Christie to drop out, but those guys aren't going anywhere until after NH. The big question is who among those 4 does really well in NH. If it's not Rubio, then Rubio is back in trouble because it will encourage whoever among the 4 does well to continue and HE might become the momentum candidate to stop Trump and Cruz instead of Rubio.

Right now everyone thinks the establishment lane is going to consolidate around Rubio because of his performance in Iowa. Maybe that's likely, but it's not a foregone conclusion until after NH because quite a few candidates have been focusing most of their energy on NH, not Iowa. One could break out and finish a strong second.

As you know the great Rick Santorum endorsed Marco Rubio today. Rick is the true, consistent conservative of the bunch and it's a shame he couldn't gain any traction this time around.

His window of opportunity was 2012 and if the 'journalists' in the media and on cable TV were honest, in addition to being real journalists, things should have been different. He truly won Iowa but the corrupt mainstream establishment GOP infrastructure wouldn't allow it that their hand picked boy, Mittens Romney, lost in Iowa. At the time, the phony Romney was trying to sell himself as a conservative, and if he had lost in conservative bible-toating Iowa then the bloom would have been off the rose real quick.

Rick won, but it wasn't announced until 18 days later -- way too late obviously. Rick also beat Mittens in his home state of Michigan, but the corrupt GOP operatives held back many districts. Again, Romney probably had the nomination wrapped up by then but it would not have bode well for the GOP if their standard bearer lost in his home state.

Rick appealed to conservatives, families and working class Democrats; Romney didn't. Today, he still does and is a more viable, winnable candidate than most of those that polled better than he did. But, that's life, as the song goes, and this time around, Rick was simply ignored.

I said originally, many months ago, that Rubio would be the establishment candidate. And Rubio is aggressively vying for that spot now and the GOP seems to have also decided that with all these endorsements.

No better evidence of this comes from my favorite 'journalist', barbie doll Megyn Kelly, who threw herself at Rubio the other night, acting like the cheap nothing she truly is.

Megyn lobbed so many softballs at baby boy Rubio I thought I was at some 50-Plus Bar League game in the sticks. Megyn once again proved that not only is she's no Eddie R. Morrow, she's no Eddie Feigner!

Rubio is a fraud and a lightweight, and despite his new-found advantages, he might finish 4th or 5th next Tuesday. If he does, it'll be a crushing reminder that the USA today needs strong and forceful leaders, tough and creative men, and people who have attained success over decades not elections. Rubio has more to lose than anyone in NH, with the possible exception of Trump, who also needs to get his act together real fast.

But the real reality is Rubio simply doesn't measure up to the other establisment candidates -- not to Kasich, not Christie and not even Jeb!, none of whom are worth two-thin dimes in the scheme of things. The question is: will they go all in and expose Rubio as a fraud or will they succumb to GOP/Rove pressure and go easy on Rubio. If they go easy, then the 'fix' is really in to try and carry Rubio across the nominating finish line. So, far, only Christie has mentioned that Rubio is unoriginal and programmed and uses the same stump speech every time he opens his mouth. Fat Chris must be a PA subscriber for I've been saying exactly that for months now, but no one listens to me here, shame on them. :) :)

Rand Paul is an honest, decent guy who also came into the fray at the wrong time. He did the right thing dropping out because he's up for re-election in Kentucky and he'll probably win that race. He's great and deserved more than 3-4-5 % poll numbers. And he is much more smarter than Marco Rubio, but so are a few dozen others in the GOP.

[Greyfox]

Rand Paul is an honest, decent guy who also came into the fray at the wrong time.

Rand Paul is a very smart man.
Unfortunately people haven't forgotten his somewhat cuckoo Dad's ideas and that likely stopped him from getting any traction.

[Mandrake]

Let's face facts, this is all pomp and circumstance. When it comes to the election these days it always comes down to a few key states. Should a republican vote in Massachusetts, New York, California, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Washington DC, Illinois, Minnesota?. Don't waste your time. Should a democrat vote in Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arizona, Oklahoma? Don't waste your time. Get rid of the electoral college BS, and maybe people will think their vote means something again.

[highnote]

Rand Paul is a very smart man.
Unfortunately people haven't forgotten his somewhat cuckoo Dad's ideas and that likely stopped him from getting any traction.


That, and the fact that his name reminds a lot of people of RuPaul. :D

[Clocker]

Rand Paul is a very smart man.

So was Obama. And like Rand Paul, a first term senator with no executive or administrative or foreign relations experience. Ditto Cruz. Ditto Rubio.

And sadly, all of those GOP newbies make more sense than Trump. This is shaping up as a Super Bowl election for me: stay home, watch it on TV, and consume vast quantities of food and alcohol.

[fast4522]

Let's face facts, this is all pomp and circumstance. When it comes to the election these days it always comes down to a few key states. Should a republican vote in Massachusetts, New York, California, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Washington DC, Illinois, Minnesota?. Don't waste your time. Should a democrat vote in Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arizona, Oklahoma? Don't waste your time. Get rid of the electoral college BS, and maybe people will think their vote means something again.

Bullshit, while there are uphill battles the vote counts.

[highnote]

So was Obama. And like Rand Paul, a first term senator with no executive or administrative or foreign relations experience. Ditto Cruz. Ditto Rubio.

And sadly, all of those GOP newbies make more sense than Trump. This is shaping up as a Super Bowl election for me: stay home, watch it on TV, and consume vast quantities of food and alcohol.


Trump is a smart man, too, with no foreign relations experience. He has plenty of executive and administrative experience, though -- probably more than Cruz and Rubio combined.

[Mandrake]

Bullshit, while there are uphill battles the vote counts.

Maybe in an irrelevant state like New Hampshire. Live free or die hard.

[Clocker]

He has plenty of executive and administrative experience, though -- probably more than Cruz and Rubio combined.

How much of it, outside of the real estate empire he inherited, was successful? Trump Casinos? Trump Airlines? Trump University?

OK, he is also good at mindless TV shows where his major executive ability is dramatically saying "You're fired".

A man's got to know his limitations.

[barahona44]

How much of it, outside of the real estate empire he inherited, was successful? Trump Casinos? Trump Airlines? Trump University?

OK, he is also good at mindless TV shows where his major executive ability is dramatically saying "You're fired".

A man's got to know his limitations.
Never hurts your argument to quote Clint Eastwood.

[PaceAdvantage]

How much of it, outside of the real estate empire he inherited, was successful? Trump Casinos? Trump Airlines? Trump University?

OK, he is also good at mindless TV shows where his major executive ability is dramatically saying "You're fired".

A man's got to know his limitations.The bar has been set so low in recent years...we've seen what the electorate is capable of putting in the White House, that I for the life of me can't believe this argument about Trump's qualifications is still being raised.

I mean,, it's laughable...are you honestly saying he's not qualified? Kooky talk.

[Clocker]

The bar has been set so low in recent years...we've seen what the electorate is capable of putting in the White House, that I for the life of me can't believe this argument about Trump's qualifications is still being raised.

I mean,, it's laughable...are you honestly saying he's not qualified? Kooky talk.

You are correct. But in my little world, I don't see anyone that is qualified, so I just like to point out that the emperor has no clothes, and I refuse to support the lesser of a bunch of evils. My vote for the current crop is none of the above. For better or worse I don't see any of them as being capable of leading, or of cleaning up the mess known as "Obama's legacy".

Trump being elected might be a good thing. I can't see him working with Congress to get anything done, and with him doing nothing is better than anything he wants to do. Once the Dems lost their supermajority in Congress, Obama couldn't get anything done because he couldn't or wouldn't work with the GOP. Trump's ego is bigger than even Obama's, and he isn't going to have the Republicans in Congress automatically on his side. I don't see him making major compromises with anyone.

Which means business as usual in Washington, blindly stumbling from crisis to crisis, with the government getting bigger, the debt getting bigger, and the common man getting the shaft. Trumps is good at pointing out some of the problems. I have zero confidence that he can fix any of them.

[Fager Fan]

I have not poo pooed polls. Not at all actually. I've said Trump won't be the nominee and that he polls so badly demographically in certain areas he has ZERO chance of beating Hillary.

And mostly I've made fun of his fans because they deny reality at every turn. We've got thousands of posts here to prove it. :D

An untrained chimp can beat Hillary.

[rastajenk]

I don't see him making major compromises with anyone.His whole schtick is The Art of the Deal. Deal or No Deal is the domain of Howie Mandel, and he ain't running. :cool:

[Tom]

Really disappointing that the dems were not able to put together any kind of diversified field of candidates. Looked pretty old and white.

The repubs had White, Hispanic, Black, female, Indian, Joisey.......the party of the people.

When will the left come into the 21st century?

[zico20]

You are correct. But in my little world, I don't see anyone that is qualified, so I just like to point out that the emperor has no clothes, and I refuse to support the lesser of a bunch of evils. My vote for the current crop is none of the above. For better or worse I don't see any of them as being capable of leading, or of cleaning up the mess known as "Obama's legacy".

Trump being elected might be a good thing. Congress to get anythingI can't see him working with done, and with him doing nothing is better than anything he wants to do. Once the Dems lost their supermajority in Congress, Obama couldn't get anything done because he couldn't or wouldn't work with the GOP. Trump's ego is bigger than even Obama's, and he isn't going to have the Republicans in Congress automatically on his side. I don't see him making major compromises with anyone.

Which means business as usual in Washington, blindly stumbling from crisis to crisis, with the government getting bigger, the debt getting bigger, and the common man getting the shaft. Trumps is good at pointing out some of the problems. I have zero confidence that he can fix any of them.

I look at it differently. I see Trump cutting deals with Democrats to get the things Trump wants passed. I think a lot of Republicans will be both happy and upset at some of the deals Trump makes.

[Rookies]

Really disappointing that the dems were not able to put together any kind of diversified field of candidates. Looked pretty old and white.

The repubs had White, Hispanic, Black, female, Indian, Joisey.......the party of the people.

When will the left come into the 21st century?

Well aside from a Black Prezzy for the past 8 years and a woman running for it in the same time period!

Funny monkey, Tricks are for Raphael! :lol:

[dkithore]

You are correct. But in my little world, I don't see anyone that is qualified, so I just like to point out that the emperor has no clothes, and I refuse to support the lesser of a bunch of evils. My vote for the current crop is none of the above. For better or worse I don't see any of them as being capable of leading, or of cleaning up the mess known as "Obama's legacy".

Trump being elected might be a good thing. I can't see him working with Congress to get anything done, and with him doing nothing is better than anything he wants to do. Once the Dems lost their supermajority in Congress, Obama couldn't get anything done because he couldn't or wouldn't work with the GOP. Trump's ego is bigger than even Obama's, and he isn't going to have the Republicans in Congress automatically on his side. I don't see him making major compromises with anyone.

Which means business as usual in Washington, blindly stumbling from crisis to crisis, with the government getting bigger, the debt getting bigger, and the common man getting the shaft. Trumps is good at pointing out some of the problems. I have zero confidence that he can fix any of them.

I see differently. He is, first and foremost a deal maker. Rest is noise. He wants to win. We want to win. America wants to win. In the long line of losers he is the only one who IMO has potential for winning for us.