2 starts in 2016

[sbcaris]

In the last 10 years 7 Derby winners made only two starts as a 3 year. That looks like a new trend. Race them lightly so there is some juice still in the tank come Triple Crown time.

Perhaps American Pharaoh was able to pull off the Triple Crown because of his light schedule as a 3 year old.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Perhaps American Pharaoh was able to pull off the Triple Crown because of his light schedule as a 3 year old.

I am certain that is what really helped him. Would still like to know what type of injury he had to that left foreleg to have the protective plate placed on.

After he ran in the Haskell, I remember visiting Del Mar's backstretch to take a look at him about two weeks before he was confirmed to run in the Travers. He looked like hell, on the thinner side, and just dull. I was surprised they ran him looking like that - and that he held onto finish second place. That major break after the Travers really did him well, as he looked like a completely different horse going into the Classic.

[f2tornado]

Interesting stat. I knew there were more winners with just two races but didn't realize that many. Others will probably disagree with me but I believe AP won the crown because his competition was very weak. It's not like his winning times were blowing up the clock. I was impressed with his Belmont and Breeder's Cup races but everything else was a yawn. What was once touted as a strong crop ended up being overrated and reduced through injury. Tale of Verve placing in Preakness? Keen Ice, at the time a nw2, beats the Crown winner in Travers? Hopefully we get a few more competitors this year.

[azeri98]

Interesting stat. I knew there were more winners with just two races but didn't realize that many. Others will probably disagree with me but I believe AP won the crown because his competition was very weak. It's not like his winning times were blowing up the clock. I was impressed with his Belmont and Breeder's Cup races but everything else was a yawn. What was once touted as a strong crop ended up being overrated and reduced through injury. Tale of Verve placing in Preakness? Keen Ice, at the time a nw2, beats the Crown winner in Travers? Hopefully we get a few more competitors this year.
I agree with you, the crop is not looking that good, if Frosted has a good year then I will retract my statement, I think California Chrome's crop could be worse, I know Tonalist was in that crop but they only faced each other in the Belmont and BC so its hard to tell and Tonalist didn't win outside of New York. Still its an incredible feat to win the TC, win 3 races in 5 weeks.

[PowerUpPaynter]

there is no reason to pick on the first Triple Crown winner is 37 years. His Belmont was extremely impressive as with his BCC... He is a legit superstar horse we all should be thrilled to have seen run....

PS... Keen Ice I actually think is a good horse and the Tale Of Verve Preakness place means nothing due to the down pour weird stuff was bound to happen but Pharoah remained unfazed... special horse

[f2tornado]

there is no reason to pick on the first Triple Crown winner is 37 years.

Nobody in this thread is picking on AP. He made it look easy but it was easy. Perhaps I yearn for another epic Sunday Silence - Easy Goer battle. Silence would have won the Crown that year had Easy took a rest instead of battling back in New York. Real Quiet lost it by a nose and arguably a brain dead Desormeaux. The Crown just doesn't mean much to me but breaking the drought certainly brought some buzz back to the sport.

[azeri98]

I think if any horse is good enough, he can win off two starts, it also "makes it easier" to complete the TC.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The trend is obviously moving towards 2 starts in the previous 4 months leading up to the Derby. I'm sure that "mythical" 3rd race in cycle has some play in it, but the reality is the new points system is probably the major player.

Why wear down a great horse with 3 or 4 preps when you only need a single race to get in? With the 100 point major prep races now in hand, a 1st or 2nd place finish in those races just about guarantees a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

Keep a horse fresh, get him geared up for his final prep and Derby, and take your major run at it without risking him in lesser races along the way.

Makes sense to me, especially with the millions of $'s at stake for the connections.

[Sinner369]

I think if any horse is good enough, he can win off two starts, it also "makes it easier" to complete the TC.

If the horse wins both races than most trainers would wait until the first Saturday in May for his third start.

Otherwise, the trainer would start the horse three times just to earn enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.

[delsully]

How many of those seven had an issue that kept them from three starts? AP didn't make his first start until the Rebel last year due to injury. I suspect he would of had another prep had he been healthy.

[sbcaris]

Since 7 of the last 10 Derby winners made only two starts as a three year old it seems to me that a new trend has developed. Trainers now believe that a lighter schedule is the best as evidenced by the following info:

American Pharoah did not make his 3 year old debut until March and then another in April before the Derby

I'll Have Another was very lightly raced with one start in Feb and another in April of his 3 year old year leading up to the Derby.

Animal Kingdom made only two starts at age 3 before the Derby and both of which were in March.

Super Saver made only two starts at age 3 before the Derby-- one in March and one in April.

Mine That Bird made only two starts at age 3 before the Derby--one in Feb and another in March.

Big Brown made only two starts--both in March. Interestingly, he had only 3 lifetime starts coming into the Derby since he ran only once at age 2.

Street Sense made only two starts at age 3 before the Derby-- one in March the other in April.

Note: the other three winners of the last 10 years made 3 starts at age 3 before the Derby:

70% of the last 10 Derby winners made only 2 starts at age 3 before the run for the roses. That certainly seems to be an established new trend when in fact in the years before that the majority of Derby winners made 3 or more starts at age 3 before running in the Derby.

[depalma113]

Others will probably disagree with me but I believe AP won the crown because his competition was very weak.

Anyone who knows anything about horse racing should disagree with you. There have been plenty of "very weak crops" and no Triple Crown winner. Isn't it time that you just accept you witnessed a phenomenal horse and stop the endless bashing.

[delsully]

Anyone who knows anything about horse racing should disagree with you. There have been plenty of "very weak crops" and no Triple Crown winner. Isn't it time that you just accept you witnessed a phenomenal horse and stop the endless bashing.

Part of that weak crop just bested the track record at Meydan today by more than a full second.

[cj]

Part of that weak crop just bested the track record at Meydan today by more than a full second.

I don't disagree with your point, but how long has the dirt been in place at Meydan? I think this is only the second year, so take any track records with a grain of salt. They've probably run like 10 races total at the distance.

[ronsmac]

Part of that weak crop just bested the track record at Meydan today by more than a full second.
The 2nd place horse broke the old track record also.

[chaz63]

I am certain that is what really helped him. Would still like to know what type of injury he had to that left foreleg to have the protective plate placed on.

After he ran in the Haskell, I remember visiting Del Mar's backstretch to take a look at him about two weeks before he was confirmed to run in the Travers. He looked like hell, on the thinner side, and just dull. I was surprised they ran him looking like that - and that he held onto finish second place. That major break after the Travers really did him well, as he looked like a completely different horse going into the Classic.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/97572/el-nio-could-present-triple-crown-challenge Baffert brings up the injury and plate issue in this article

[delsully]

I don't disagree with your point, but how long has the dirt been in place at Meydan? I think this is only the second year, so take any track records with a grain of salt. They've probably run like 10 races total at the distance.

Understandable, just thought he looked good coming back. I think he's a solid horse.

[dilanesp]

too much post hoc ergo propter hoc here.