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Ghostzapper04
01-30-2016, 10:13 PM
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.

Dr Gonzo
01-31-2016, 07:17 AM
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.

Welcome, Ghostzapper04.

Every software program that I've seen, including ones costing $1500+, fall way short of the mark setting a reasonably accurate odds line. If anyone knows of software that does this calculation well, I'd sure like to know about it.

That being said, I create my own odds line based upon the number of true contenders in the race. For example, 3 contenders might be 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1 totaling about 80% of the win pool. I always leave about 20% for the other horses to make allowances for surprises, bad handicapping etc.

Here is a good place to start : http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/07/making-fair-odds-line.html

Good luck to you.

Doc

Capper Al
01-31-2016, 07:31 AM
Welcome Ghostzapper04.

Checkout the thread 'Morning Lines are Just Wrong' for another view of MLs.

upthecreek
01-31-2016, 10:41 AM
Hi all, I'm new to the forum. From what I've seen there are a lot of sharpies here.

I'm not a math guy so I'm hoping to calculate a formula or find software that will. What I am specifically looking for is an equation/software that will allow me to assign a win percentage to a horse. In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

I feel this would allow me to find overlays/underlays based on my handicapping skills (ha) much more accurately. Thanks for your help.

You could try the FREE Handifast program from a member here Allows you to weight certain factors and gives you fair odds(see attached)
In the example R9 Tampa today the #6 is 10-1 Ml fair odds 3-1

Ghostzapper04
01-31-2016, 12:06 PM
Welcome, Ghostzapper04.

Every software program that I've seen, including ones costing $1500+, fall way short of the mark setting a reasonably accurate odds line. If anyone knows of software that does this calculation well, I'd sure like to know about it.

That being said, I create my own odds line based upon the number of true contenders in the race. For example, 3 contenders might be 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1 totaling about 80% of the win pool. I always leave about 20% for the other horses to make allowances for surprises, bad handicapping etc.

Here is a good place to start : http://blog.twinspires.com/2012/07/making-fair-odds-line.html

Good luck to you.

Doc

Very good info. Thanks.

Dave Schwartz
01-31-2016, 01:14 PM
In turn I should receive what the correct odds should be, solely dependent on what percentage I assigned to the horse. It should also take the takeout into account.

Indeed you would like that, as would every player on the planet.

This is known in horse racing as "The Holy Grail."

Ghostzapper04
01-31-2016, 01:31 PM
Indeed you would like that, as would every player on the planet.

This is known in horse racing as "The Holy Grail."

LOL. Not in that sense. 'correct' in a mathematic sense i.e. a 3% horse should be 32:1.

Dave Schwartz
01-31-2016, 01:36 PM
And that would be "The Holy Grail."

The goal is to be able to say, "#1 has a 32.2% chance of winning" (and be correct, of course).

(Please note: Not trying to be critical. Just trying to understand.)

Ghostzapper04
01-31-2016, 01:42 PM
And that would be "The Holy Grail."

The goal is to be able to say, "#1 has a 32.2% chance of winning" (and be correct, of course).

(Please note: Not trying to be critical. Just trying to understand.)

Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.

Capper Al
01-31-2016, 01:56 PM
Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.

What are your numbers worth if two-thirds of the time they are wrong?

Dave Schwartz
01-31-2016, 02:22 PM
Of course, but it's much more about being able to identify massive overlays based on your handicapping than being actually able to compute exact chances of winning, which is impossible.

IMHO, raising the tolerance for errors does not negate the need for accuracy and verification.

Ghostzapper04
01-31-2016, 02:41 PM
IMHO, raising the tolerance for errors does not negate the need for accuracy and verification.

Agreed. After I've used this method and have a sample size, if what I think are 15% horses are coming in at 3%, I'm going to have problems. I'll have to keep a sturdy database of this, which I likely wouldn't have if we weren't having this conversation. Thanks, Dave.

Dave Schwartz
01-31-2016, 03:44 PM
Agreed. After I've used this method and have a sample size, if what I think are 15% horses are coming in at 3%, I'm going to have problems. I'll have to keep a sturdy database of this, which I likely wouldn't have if we weren't having this conversation. Thanks, Dave.

Good job! The secret to success!


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

crestridge
02-01-2016, 01:51 PM
Check out, "The Signal And The Noise" and "Precision: Statistical Mathematical Methods In Horse Racing", can find them on Amazon.

Ghostzapper04
02-10-2016, 01:39 PM
Got what I was looking for with this Odds Calculator from Derek Simon.

(excel download)

https://valuewagering.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/fairoddscalculator.xls

green80
02-10-2016, 01:43 PM
what is used for the numerator and denomonator?

Ghostzapper04
02-15-2016, 01:29 PM
what is used for the numerator and denomonator?

I set the denominator to 1 for every horse. Thus, a horse that's 10:1, should have a numerator of 10 and a denominator of 1.

JoeLong
02-16-2016, 05:38 PM
There are three books I'd recommend reading in search of odds-line calculation.

1). Thoroughbred Handicapping as an Investment - Dick Mitchel
2). Money Secrets at the Racetrack - Barry Meadow
3). The Four Quarters of Horse Investing - Steve Fierro

After reading and understanding these publications you will discover what goes into building a credible rating system or odds-line.

After years of trying to perfect an odds-line I have come to the conclusion that the Four Quarters approach to odds-line construction is about as good as it gets. Couple that with Barry Meadow's Win Bet Chart and you have a viable means to attack racing from a edge/odds probability window of your own making.

Ghostzapper04
02-16-2016, 10:58 PM
There are three books I'd recommend reading in search of odds-line calculation.

1). Thoroughbred Handicapping as an Investment - Dick Mitchel
2). Money Secrets at the Racetrack - Barry Meadow
3). The Four Quarters of Horse Investing - Steve Fierro

After reading and understanding these publications you will discover what goes into building a credible rating system or odds-line.

After years of trying to perfect an odds-line I have come to the conclusion that the Four Quarters approach to odds-line construction is about as good as it gets. Couple that with Barry Meadow's Win Bet Chart and you have a viable means to attack racing from a edge/odds probability window of your own making.

Thanks for the advice; going to read these.

Capper Al
02-17-2016, 07:14 AM
All rubbish! By definition, if one could nail an odds line they would be rich. All they need to do is bet on horses with post time odds above their line. It would be like getting 6/1 odds on a roll of a die. One could be certain with a fair die that in the long run they would come out ahead. If they are not rich then it's rubbish.

raybo
02-18-2016, 06:11 PM
I agree, odds lines are only as good as their long term results. The odds maker must, consistently, know how the horse compares to all the others in the race, and if the horse will demonstrate that edge today. Nobody knows that, all the time! But, the astute odds maker, who concentrates on the long term, can make long term profit, even if his line is not perfect in individual races. Individual races, and individual race lines, mean little to the long term. It's all about "consistently being good enough" to mean something long term.

Alas, I have never seen or heard of an odds maker who has a good enough line to bet it all the time, and make long term profit from doing so.