Mohaymen

[magwell]

Seen him today, at 2.2 mil. did not expect any flaws and didn't see any, his action was good and he wasn't really tested, the jock was a passenger on "much the best" today, lets hope he stays sound, he's a strong contender, but its still way early......:cool:

[Ghostzapper04]

Finished the race as if he was completing a workout. His stride is incredibly efficient, such as last year's Derby winner, whatever his name was.

[PowerUpPaynter]

WOW this horse has legit super star potential.

[MutuelClerk]

Seemed like a jockey was sweating more than the horse. Alvardo looked nervous almost like the weight of the world was off his shoulders after the race.

[f2tornado]

I would have liked to have seen a little faster pace through 6F but really liked the closing speed. For me, the one to beat in May (at this time and it is early). I will add to my Future wager in a couple weeks. Not much else out there impresses me much yet but I do want to see additional racing from Lani and Airoforce.

[Hoops McCann]

he looked great. gotta be the early derby fave.

[magwell]

He looked just fine again today, just walked his beat, and there's nothing wrong with Zulu he's a great looking colt by Bernardini with no wasted action, it was only his 3rd start so lot of potential here ........:cool:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Seen him today, at 2.2 mil. did not expect any flaws and didn't see any, his action was good and he wasn't really tested, the jock was a passenger on "much the best" today, lets hope he stays sound, he's a strong contender, but its still way early......:cool:

Mohaymen may have won but he sure did not gallop out very well...stopped real fast after finish line..I have doubts whether he can get the mile and quarter distance now...

[Mc990]

No chance this colt gets 10f in May. So know we have a potential match race between Mohaymen and Nyquist in the Florida Derby... Seriously how many are they going to draw for that race? 5? 6 entries?

We have the potential of seeing them the derby favorite and a top 5 choice with a 1-2 finish in Florida. All that with beating small fields and with Nyquist, only 1 route this year. I know I'll be betting against with both fists. Some bettors out there may have lost the battle yesterday but couldn't be positioned more perfectly to win the war May 7th.

[classhandicapper]

He's not as fast as Nyquist, but I thought he looked good. His pedigree doesn't scream 10F, but I didn't see anything yesterday that made me think he clearly can't get 10F. At this stage I think he's more likely to handle 10F than Nyquist.

I don't see him as so dominant that someone can't move past him between now and the Derby, but he's the Derby favorite right now.

[magwell]

Mohaymen may have won but he sure did not gallop out very well...stopped real fast after finish line..I have doubts whether he can get the mile and quarter distance now...He did the same thing after the Holy Bull, if there is a problem coming it will be physical not the distance.....just my opinion

[Appy]

Will he or won't he? All I know is he has proven to be everything I love to find in a horse and is therefore too good for my money.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Why all of a sudden the question on whether he'll get the distance? He's already won easily in the 9F Remsen at 2 YO and seemed to gallop out strongly there. He's also not been tested yet, so there should be plenty of bottom to travel the extra furlong in the derby. I think some are just reaching for another horse so they don't have to bet chalk. Until he's been beaten or is stricken with illness or injury he'll be the horse to beat for the roses.

It is one thing to search for value in a race and quite another to take a horse with very little chance to win at long odds. Fellowship was 22-1 in a 6 horse race, but had little chance to win against the favorites. There were horseplayers who understood he didn't have a chance to win and took him as a solid play underneath despite the attractive win odds. Others were swayed by the 3/5 on Mohaymen and "hoped" Fellowship somehow stumbled up for the win despite never proving he could against this quality before. Fellowship could have been 60/1 and I would never take him in that race. Not against those quality horses and not at Gulfstream Park where speed and racing forwardly early is the best trip.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I wouldnt worry about his gallop out i think he is a tough horse to get a read on based on his mannerisms. He looks like hes half asleep pre race. One thing for sure he wont get spooked come derby day if his demeanor was any calmer he would curl up and take a nap during the post parade. Kiaran McLaughlin always says how this horse never is winded

[Robert Fischer]

I don't see him as so dominant that someone can't move past him between now and the Derby, but he's the Derby favorite right now.
This. I agree.


Distance questions?
There's no reason he can't get 10furlongs.

Mohaymen will contend for a top placing if
1. He holds his current form
2. He gets a good trip

Maybe he will appear more brilliant closing from mid-pack into a collapsing pace. His brilliance hasn't been jaw-dropping yet. He's simply 'better' than his competition.
Or maybe this horse 'has' to make a middle-move like he has in his last two regardless of the fact that it would better be used later in the Derby, and it will be a grind late.

Kiaran McLaughlin has also had horses in recent years that peaked early and declined in form by the triple crown series. Mohaymen's form is not guaranteed to hold.

But if the Derby were yesterday at 10f he'd have to be the favorite.

[Spiderman]

I wouldnt worry about his gallop out i think he is a tough horse to get a read on based on his mannerisms. He looks like hes half asleep pre race. One thing for sure he wont get spooked come derby day if his demeanor was any calmer he would curl up and take a nap during the post parade. Kiaran McLaughlin always says how this horse never is winded

Alvarado eased-up about 70 yards from wire. Fast gallop-out was not in the plan. He has one more test before Derby, the Florida Derby, where you may get a faster gallop-out in prep for Derby.

[raybo]

I don't see a thing wrong with the horse, so far. Yes, lots can happen between now and May, but this one only has to remain sound, physically and mentally, and he'll be a contender in the Derby. Can he get 10f? Sure, why not? Can he get 10f better than some others? We won't know that until deep stretch in the Derby.

We all must keep in mind, 3yos can improve, and decline, quickly without warning. Just as it has always been, nothing is guaranteed. It's horse racing, and anything can happen, at any time.

[f2tornado]

I have yet to see anything I'd use to beat Mohaymen come May. If I only had that attitude last year after AP's walk in the Rebel then I could have loaded up at 9-1 in the Future Wager. Nyquist is probably faster through 7 or 8 panels but has a very weak Derby distance pedigree. Will certainly know a lot more when he runs at 9F. Mohaymen has a nice Derby pedigree. Bold Ruler line on top, 26 dosage points and 3.00 index. Cherokee Rose in tail female. The horse has barely been asked to this point much like AP last year. He's my pick unless he tanks the FL Derby or I see a sub 1:48 time in the Santa Anita Derby and I don't expect either. I'll be shopping for bombers underneath. Chrome over Curve and Orb over Golden Soul certainly rewarded players handsomely. No shame in picking the favorite.

[PowerUpPaynter]

I have yet to see anything I'd use to beat Mohaymen come May. If I only had that attitude last year after AP's walk in the Rebel then I could have loaded up at 9-1 in the Future Wager. Nyquist is probably faster through 7 or 8 panels but has a very weak Derby distance pedigree. Will certainly know a lot more when he runs at 9F. Mohaymen has a nice Derby pedigree. Bold Ruler line on top, 26 dosage points and 3.00 index. Cherokee Rose in tail female. The horse has barely been asked to this point much like AP last year. He's my pick unless he tanks the FL Derby or I see a sub 1:48 time in the Santa Anita Derby and I don't expect either. I'll be shopping for bombers underneath. Chrome over Curve and Orb over Golden Soul certainly rewarded players handsomely. No shame in picking the favorite.


Whitmore had long odds 'clunk up' potential

[Mc990]

Regarding his Remsen, 9f is a world away from 10f IMO. I recall Normandy invasion (another Tapit colt by the way) just a few years back running well in the Remsen as well as the Wood (faster Remsen figure than Mohaymen) but then hitting the wall at the top of the derby stretch. Derby trail is littered with 9f wonders that just do not want that last furlong.

There is a lot to like about this horse... Nice pattern, good 2yr old number, probable 5 weeks rest into the derby, calm demeanor but he's hard to swallow as the favorite at this point. Would need to improve on speed figures and that holds true regardless of what figures you use.

[Stoleitbreezing]

Regarding his Remsen, 9f is a world away from 10f IMO. I recall Normandy invasion (another Tapit colt by the way) just a few years back running well in the Remsen as well as the Wood (faster Remsen figure than Mohaymen) but then hitting the wall at the top of the derby stretch. Derby trail is littered with 9f wonders that just do not want that last furlong.

There is a lot to like about this horse... Nice pattern, good 2yr old number, probable 5 weeks rest into the derby, calm demeanor but he's hard to swallow as the favorite at this point. Would need to improve on speed figures and that holds true regardless of what figures you use.

IMO there is no comparison to Normandy Invasion. While NI was competing in derby preps he was still eligible for the N2L condition, a condition he didn't break since he returned from injury at 4 YO. Additionally, I thought the jockey of NI made a premature move on the far turn that emptied out NI in the lane. I think most horseplayers who watch the replay would agree he was used too early.

As far as Mohaymen, he's already a multiple graded stakes winner and has won at 9F already. What are you basing on him not getting the extra furlong in the derby? Pedigree? His pedigree is as solid as most on the trail this year. His speed figures this year based on his TFUS numbers go have been at the top of those that already ran this season. I just don't understand your argument.

[PowerUpPaynter]

IMO there is no comparison to Normandy Invasion. While NI was competing in derby preps he was still eligible for the N2L condition, a condition he didn't break since he returned from injury at 4 YO. Additionally, I thought the jockey of NI made a premature move on the far turn that emptied out NI in the lane. I think most horseplayers who watch the replay would agree he was used too early.

As far as Mohaymen, he's already a multiple graded stakes winner and has won at 9F already. What are you basing on him not getting the extra furlong in the derby? Pedigree? His pedigree is as solid as most on the trail this year. His speed figures this year based on his TFUS numbers go have been at the top of those that already ran this season. I just don't understand your argument.


he might lay down and take a nap in between furlongs 9 and 10... just kidding. but really has anyone ever seen a horse as good as him yet so nonchalant. He looked like he was totally sleeping in the paddock this last race...

[f2tornado]

He looks every bit as good as AP did at this juncture last year and in my opinion has far superior dam side breeding for classic distance. Mohaymen ran fast final fractions in his previous 9F race suggesting 10F should be no issue. If you don't like him at the Kentucky Derby window then you will get paid very well should you beat him but by who? He's already laid waste to some of the best NY and FL have to offer which perhaps isn't saying much but it's not like another horse has dominated elsewhere.

[BIG49010]

He looks every bit as good as AP did at this juncture last year and in my opinion has far superior dam side breeding for classic distance. Mohaymen ran fast final fractions in his previous 9F race suggesting 10F should be no issue. If you don't like him at the Kentucky Derby window then you will get paid very well should you beat him but by who? He's already laid waste to some of the best NY and FL have to offer which perhaps isn't saying much but it's not like another horse has dominated elsewhere.

On the Dam side, I am a little worried, being her foal New Years Day won the Breeder's Cup then was retired for soundness issues, but then Baffert doesn't baby anything. She was a real runner in her own right, with a spectacular start of her 3 year old year at Gulfstream, then missed the KY Oaks etc for some reason.

[SecretAgentMan]

I have yet to see anything I'd use to beat Mohaymen come May. If I only had that attitude last year after AP's walk in the Rebel then I could have loaded up at 9-1 in the Future Wager. Nyquist is probably faster through 7 or 8 panels but has a very weak Derby distance pedigree. Will certainly know a lot more when he runs at 9F. Mohaymen has a nice Derby pedigree. Bold Ruler line on top, 26 dosage points and 3.00 index. Cherokee Rose in tail female. The horse has barely been asked to this point much like AP last year. He's my pick unless he tanks the FL Derby or I see a sub 1:48 time in the Santa Anita Derby and I don't expect either. I'll be shopping for bombers underneath. Chrome over Curve and Orb over Golden Soul certainly rewarded players handsomely. No shame in picking the favorite.



Mohaymen is as good as they come these season, but he's not trained by Baffert, so I will.try to beat him in Kentucky.

Baffert knew exactly what he had in AP, & we were hearing about it for 2 solid months. Mohaymen IMO is definitely better than Nyquist, & we should see a good match race in Florida, but with 5 solid Saturdays of prep races left, a horse or two should pop out that looks good enough to beat the favorite.

[f2tornado]

Mohaymen is as good as they come these season, but he's not trained by Baffert, so I will.try to beat him in Kentucky.

Baffert knew exactly what he had in AP, & we were hearing about it for 2 solid months. Mohaymen IMO is definitely better than Nyquist, & we should see a good match race in Florida, but with 5 solid Saturdays of prep races left, a horse or two should pop out that looks good enough to beat the favorite.

Baffert had a long drought until AP fell in his lap. Still, much respect for the trainer. I too will be shopping for a horse to beat the current favorite as I already have plenty on it through the first three future wagers. I will be looking for a horse that runs one of the final 9F preps with fast closing fractions (and will be watching to see if Mohamen accomplishes same), also has Raise A Native or Bold Ruler sire line, preferably has Buckpasser and/or conduit mare in tail female, has female family 1 or 23b, and preferably a top jockey. That has been a winning formula for many years.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Baffert had a long drought until AP fell in his lap. Still, much respect for the trainer. I too will be shopping for a horse to beat the current favorite as I already have plenty on it through the first three future wagers. I will be looking for a horse that runs one of the final 9F preps with fast closing fractions (and will be watching to see if Mohamen accomplishes same), also has Raise A Native or Bold Ruler sire line, preferably has Buckpasser and/or conduit mare in tail female, has female family 1 or 23b, and preferably a top jockey. That has been a winning formula for many years.


what do you mean family 1 or 23b? =where would you get that info and what does it mean?



and unrelated but obviosuly you knwo bloodlines so id figure ill ask... what is the significance of 'Ribot' in the bloodline? Read something about that years ago when Chrome was a 3yo and read something earlier in the year about Whitmore having Ribot in the sire line

[f2tornado]

what do you mean family 1 or 23b? =where would you get that info and what does it mean?

and unrelated but obviosuly you knwo bloodlines so id figure ill ask... what is the significance of 'Ribot' in the bloodline? Read something about that years ago when Chrome was a 3yo and read something earlier in the year about Whitmore having Ribot in the sire line

The tail female family can be found on pedigreequery.com. If you look up Danzing Candy you will see {1-l}. Family 1 and 23b have won a disproportionate share of recent derby races. 15 winners out of the last 41 races.

Ribot was an undeafeated 16/16 in Europe during the mid 1950s. He was their version of Citation but for less purse money. Ribot is the sire line for Whitmore. It is also in the tail female line of California Chrome via Princess Ribot. Princess Ribot leads back to Countess Wanda. California Chrome also has a double dose of Buckpasser and ran a fast Santa Anita Derby. He was a logical Derby choice.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The tail female family can be found on pedigreequery.com. If you look up Danzing Candy you will see {1-l}. Family 1 and 23b have won a disproportionate share of recent derby races. 15 winners out of the last 41 races.

Ribot was an undeafeated 16/16 in Europe during the mid 1950s. He was their version of Citation but for less purse money. Ribot is the sire line for Whitmore. It is also in the tail female line of California Chrome via Princess Ribot. Princess Ribot leads back to Countess Wanda. California Chrome also has a double dose of Buckpasser and ran a fast Santa Anita Derby. He was a logical Derby choice.

Sometimes it is not even necessarily the direct sire/damsire that create the big picture but the combination of descent lines. I had a 1st turfer at Remington Park last fall that had Blushing Groom/Ribot combination that won at 14-1. Not going to pull every example but have found it works all over the place.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Baffert had a long drought until AP fell in his lap. Still, much respect for the trainer. I too will be shopping for a horse to beat the current favorite as I already have plenty on it through the first three future wagers. I will be looking for a horse that runs one of the final 9F preps with fast closing fractions (and will be watching to see if Mohamen accomplishes same), also has Raise A Native or Bold Ruler sire line, preferably has Buckpasser and/or conduit mare in tail female, has female family 1 or 23b, and preferably a top jockey. That has been a winning formula for many years.

Just to tack on to your observation here are the male descendant lines of Derby winners since Northern Dancer won it in 1964. That line for all it's world dominance is incredibly underachieving in the Derby.

The 3 sons of Nearco-Nasrullah(Bold Ruler,AP Indy lines),Royal Charger(Turn-To line),Nearctic(Northern Dancer line) and Native Dancer(Mr Prospector line dominantly with 1 direct line through Maria's Mon), dominate the winners having won 41 of 50 Derbies from 1964 to 2014. This makes Phalaris the new Eclipse starting in 1958 with Tim Tam this line pushed out all the old bloodlines by the end of the 60's.

Kentucky Derby 1964-2014(Tail Male)

Native Dancer-19 winners

Nasrullah-12

Royal Charger-5

Nearctic-5


Buckpasser-3

Ribot-2

1 each from Isinglass,Rose Prince,Holy Bull,Bois Roussel

[SecretAgentMan]

Do you guys have a list of this years derby horses that fall under the category you're presenting for the derby winner?

[f2tornado]

Do you guys have a list of this years derby horses that fall under the category you're presenting for the derby winner?

Horses from last future wager that have two or more items on my list. I have yet to dig with fine tooth comb so may have missed one:

Cupid - Bold Ruler, Lygie in tail female
Danzing Candy - Raise A Native, Family 1
Economic Model - Bold Ruler, Family 1, Marchetta in tail female
Matt King Coal - Bold Ruler, Buckpasser-x
Mohaymen - Bold Ruler, Cherokee Rose in tail female
Swipe - Raise A Native, Family 1, Doxa in tail female, Buckpasser-x
Zulu - Bold Ruler, Lygie in tail female, Buckpasser-x

If any of these run fast final fractions in one of the pending 9F preps then will be a live play for a board hit or better yet the win.