Holy Bull

[f2tornado]

There is a relatively short field for the 2016 edition of the G2 stakes. Mohaymen looks to be the one to beat and a win here will likely propel this one as the clear betting favorite in next month's Derby Future Wager 2. There is simply very little to dislike about this Tapit colt. Should this one falter then the Bernardini colt Greenpointcrusader should be on the improve. The other Tapit, Conquest Big E is improving a little each race. Getting Mike Smith is always a plus. Perhaps Fellowship could hit the board if one of the above have an off day otherwise the remainder are field filler.

My bet: Mohaymen/Greenpoint, Conquest trifecta and will probably have to bet it big to get any decent money out of the deal.

[PowerUpPaynter]

What you think he will be pool 2 if he wins this one? 7-1? If that drives Nyquist north of 10-1 then Nyquist is worth $100 bet

[f2tornado]

What you think he will be pool 2 if he wins this one? 7-1? If that drives Nyquist north of 10-1 then Nyquist is worth $100 bet

That would be a good estimate on both. I'm not as impressed with Nyquist but that's why we wager.

[PowerUpPaynter]

That would be a good estimate on both. I'm not as impressed with Nyquist but that's why we wager.


Im not the biggest Nyquist fan but for futures pools i always like to have futures tickets north of 10-1 on horses that are less then 10-1 on derby day

[classhandicapper]

If I play I'll be tempted to try to beat Greenpointcrusader for 2nd. On my ratings the Champagne was pretty weak from a qualitative perspective, the track was off that day (which may have favored him), and the winning margins were kind of exaggerated all day.

In the Juvenile, he barely beat Conquest Big E even though the latter was close to what I rated as a "+" pace while 2 to 3 wide for most of the trip (GPC was very wide on turn 2).

I think there's a reasonable Conquest Big E gets the lead in a moderate pace with Mohayem stalking him (or vice versa) and they could go around the track together. I like those boxed with the favorite heavier on top. Not sure there's much of a chance to get value out of that ticket by post time though because it's not like GPC is terrible.

[Kash$]

Mohaymen .........is more sizzle then steak...Not buying his stock quite yet.

[letswastemoney]

The horse Mohaymen was beating up on in New York, Flexibility, won the Jerome easily. I think Mohaymen's hype is justified, although it doesn't mean I'd be excited to bet him.

[PowerUpPaynter]

The horse Mohaymen was beating up on in New York, Flexibility, won the Jerome easily. I think Mohaymen's hype is justified, although it doesn't mean I'd be excited to bet him.


I do question how good Flexibility is... looks like another just horrible new york crop

[Parson]

I think it is a whiskey sipping race, that means just sit sip a bit and watch. If someone put a gun to my head and made me wager, I just don't see anyone getting past the :2: . Kiaran has the Tapit colt working well since the calander turned over and made all of these 3 yr olds. It is also hard to disregard the blow out on 1/21.
These colts can improve almost over night at this time of the year. If any of them make a significant move forward, it just might open the door for a price horse. I look for the :3: -Fellowship to make that move forward. It might not be enough to get there against the :2: -Mohaymen.

All that being said, if i had to, which I won't , I play a tri with the 2 key 3,4,6 with a small w/p bet on the 3

[Kash$]

The horse Mohaymen was beating up on in New York, Flexibility, won the Jerome easily. I think Mohaymen's hype is justified, although it doesn't mean I'd be excited to bet him.

Flexibility off the board at 1/2 you can have Mohaymen

[PowerUpPaynter]

Flexibility off the board at 1/2 you can have Mohaymen



never trust a gray horse

[Robert Fischer]

MOY is tough from what I remember.

In the 9th race the 1m msw... - the 5 could be tough as a 2nd choice or so. I think he can beat the 10. That matchup comes down to whether the 5 has any health issues and is physically capable of making a strong lead change for the stretch today. He certainly is strong on the turns.

[Robert Fischer]

MOY is tough from what I remember.

In the 9th race the 1m msw... - the 5 could be tough as a 2nd choice or so. I think he can beat the 10. That matchup comes down to whether the 5 has any health issues and is physically capable of making a strong lead change for the stretch today. He certainly is strong on the turns.

5 is sitting @ 6-1 very early. IF the 'public' can see what I see, then it is a very bad sign for the 5.
Or if the public can't see what I see, he's a huge overlay and the odds are a function of ignorance rather than information.

The 10 Mo Power is pumped up and fundamentally sound, he just didn't strike me as a stakes quality horse.
The 5 Dixie Runner has the questions that I mentioned regarding soundness and ability to change leads. I will say that if 5 makes a strong change of leads upon entering the stretch that I will be surprised if he is not 1st or 2nd.

[Robert Fischer]

faltered in the stretch. He did change leads even if it was weak.

I was wrong.

[cj]

faltered in the stretch. He did change leads even if it was weak.

I was wrong.

Taking on Pletcher at Gulfstream is like walking a mine field in clown shoes.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Garbage field.

One would expect at least a single speed horse might want to take on Mohaymen.

Nope. Not one.

:4: looks to have the best chance at a huge upset, and it is a small one.

[BCOURTNEY]

:4:

[Robert Fischer]

Taking on Pletcher at Gulfstream is like walking a mine field in clown shoes.

So true.

Mo Power (the 10) was an underlay, but he was certainly the most likely winner. I got suckered into the 5 Dixie Something. The 5 was an interesting alternative to an underlaid favorite, but I was taking 'tradeoffs' there.
I don't think my 1unit Win bet on 5 would be a big long-term loss over a significant series of wagers, but I was taking a tradeoff so 3-1 or whatever he went off at isn't as good as it looks. I knew there was a certain probabilty that he wasn't going to be able to do something he hadn't shown on debut (change leads with authority and finish well).

Castellano seemed to err a bit by doing his normal by-the-book ride easing into the far turn on the lead( considering that 5's only real known competitive advantage coming in was his strong left-lead running on the turn), but then Johnn V decided to press early on the turn so Castellano was forced into staying a bit active, and the 5 actually showed no real move on the turn anyway.

10 paid $3.60 , and even after the fact and using an end-justifies-the-means philosophy, he still may have been a long term loser.

Sometimes you have to concede a race and pass. Pletcher's 9th , and perhaps Mohaymen's 11th.

I haven't Handicapped the 11th. 4 has decent form, but on paper it looks like a walkover for Mohaymen

[letswastemoney]

Flexibility off the board at 1/2 you can have MohaymenI would forgive Flexibility's race. They just seemed to stay in the same positions the entire time, so maybe the flow favored Sunny Ridge.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not so sure there's much to be learned by the Holy Bull. The pace was very slow (as I expected) and the winner finished very well, but we already knew he was good. I was a little surprised to see Conquest Big E behind GPC early. That pretty much eliminated his chances of getting 2nd. Not sure what Smith was thinking. Good ride by Johnny V to realize the pace was going to be slow and get GPC in position to have any chance.

[classhandicapper]

I would forgive Flexibility's race. They just seemed to stay in the same positions the entire time, so maybe the flow favored Sunny Ridge.

This is after the fact, but most pace figures (and my notes) suggested that Flexibility took advantage of what was probably a fast pace last time. So maybe he wasn't as good as he looked going into the race yesterday. He and Vorticity (who was on that pace) flipped positions yesterday. That would tend to help verify it.