1/30/16 Race 3 TUP

[chadk66]

Handicap the third at Tup on 1/30/16. Maidens. several first timers. Brother has one in it. Looks like a pretty soft bunch.

[ultracapper]

Thanks for the heads up. Wishing him luck.

[chadk66]

he seems to be a pretty decent horse. first time out with some good works. they were actually meaningful honest works lol. never really asked to run in the morning, did them all pretty easy. However, he is bred to run long on the grass so who knows at 5.5F.

[EMD4ME]

he seems to be a pretty decent horse. first time out with some good works. they were actually meaningful honest works lol. never really asked to run in the morning, did them all pretty easy. However, he is bred to run long on the grass so who knows at 5.5F.

I apologize for the ignorance....but who is your brother please? An owner or a trainer?

[chadk66]

I apologize for the ignorance....but who is your brother please? An owner or a trainer?He owns part of My Kingdom with the trainer Val Lund.

[EMD4ME]

He owns part of My Kingdom with the trainer Val Lund.

Thank you. I'll take a look, not that my 2 cents matter and report what I see.

[chadk66]

it's your typical maiden race with questionable talent;) A handicappers delight:cool:

[NorCalGreg]

He owns part of My Kingdom with the trainer Val Lund.

Valerie has her best rider on 'KINGDOM--check out that T/J combo line. Only problem--she obviously doesn't "send" her first-timers. That 6f w/o looks good, but that will be 10 days ago by race-time. A sweet 3f blowout, maybe today....might sweeten the deal.
This is all how I 'cap...you may see it differently.

As it is, @ anything near 3-1 --pass.

[Tall One]

I do like seeing those steady 7 day works 11/25-12/30, so those last two at 5&6 fall right into schedule, jmo.

Thanks for the heads up Chad. Don't follow TuP, but will add to the stable and keep up with the progress... :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

I'm going to print the pps for this race simply because of the heads up, and the horse itself doesn't look bad at all, but of course that's all relative to the rest of the field.

As for the trainer's FTS stats, read a little deeper into it. 3% winners in 36 starts (1 win), but 36% in the money (13 ITM finishes). Can't tell just from this alone, but I would guess a break here or a break there, and Lund would be an 8 to 14% FTS trainer (3 to 5 wins). She's an overall 20% trainer, and being that she has gotten plenty of FTS to finish ITM, it's indicating to me that this particular result may be irregular for her and it wouldn't surprise me to see her get a handful of FTS winners in the near future. 13 for 36 ITM you'd guess 4 or 5 winners. I'm guessing her FTS have been victims of circumstances rather than not being prepared. You don't get 13 out of 36 ITM without having the horses ready to go.

The 5.5 may be the deal breaker here. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one chug along filling a spot on the ticket, but 5.5 may be a tad sharp for him. This horse may well ultimately excel anywhere from 1 1/8th all the way up to "all day".

[chadk66]

I'm going to print the pps for this race simply because of the heads up, and the horse itself doesn't look bad at all, but of course that's all relative to the rest of the field.

As for the trainer's FTS stats, read a little deeper into it. 3% winners in 36 starts (1 win), but 36% in the money (13 ITM finishes). Can't tell just from this alone, but I would guess a break here or a break there, and Lund would be an 8 to 14% FTS trainer (3 to 5 wins). She's an overall 20% trainer, and being that she has gotten plenty of FTS to finish ITM, it's indicating to me that this particular result may be irregular for her and it wouldn't surprise me to see her get a handful of FTS winners in the near future. 13 for 36 ITM you'd guess 4 or 5 winners. I'm guessing her FTS have been victims of circumstances rather than not being prepared. You don't get 13 out of 36 ITM without having the horses ready to go.

The 5.5 may be the deal breaker here. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one chug along filling a spot on the ticket, but 5.5 may be a tad sharp for him. This horse may well ultimately excel anywhere from 1 1/8th all the way up to "all day".great observations. I've been a little puzzled on her lack of success on first timers myself. The distance is suspect but the 5/8 gate workout was really good so I think the horse possesses good tactical speed.

[maclr11]

Took a full look at the field.

Gunfire is Mercedes/Diodoro and that's one of the leading combos in the country right now. Tino leads the nation in wins right now in 2016. Gunfire is regally bred and didn't go to Oaklawn which probably means he's not a world beater and his form shows that as well. The horse did come back with a couple of good workouts since the poor race Dec 13th although the race came back very live. Gunfire was highly thought of going off at 5/2 in his career debut and we got the tip on him all the way up here in Canada through some sources. Gunfire is a horse to respect but a horse you can also play against.

Drinkatthebar goes for Dale Greenwood who I assure you is better than his 0 for 24 record. The horse is a Minnesota bred and races for Jim Leatherberry who has had his shares of winners and normally is worth betting as they can keep one under the radar if they want to. Normally Clay Brinson runs Leatherberry's horses, but this one shows up in PHX and has okay works. This is the first foal for a mare who won her only start and he goes for a stallion who's offspring tend to take longer to develop. Israel Hernandez is 3 for 8 for Greenwood. A worthy price play if he stays at a price.

Political Debate goes for Kenneth Pearson and Jennifer Reid who has had a good run of late. The barn produces 21% winners first time out and has some okay works coming into the race. The pedigree for this horse is the cool part of him. Misremembered was a nice speedy miler and the damn was the champion Silverbulletday. This mare hasn't thrown anything close to her talent though. It's interesting to think about how this horse got to Kenneth Pearson in Phoenix. Some good stats, okay works, have to respect him.

My Kingdom is the Lund trainee. Good works, total route turf pedigree. Purchased for 15k at Kee 2014. Ramgeet has been good of late. The mare has had 4 winners. Another contender. Watch the tote board.

The 5 The Boss is Back ran okay in some maiden claimers at Emerald. He's been okay and should get a good stalking trip. Good barn in Lucarelli, should stalk the pace but I think he's a likely board finisher but possibly not a winner.

Last time out Bradwell was hustled along early before backing out of it. He now adds Blinkers but he didn't take much money in his first start. I wouldn't expect him to get loose either, but he might set the race up for someone coming from off the pace.

Youcancallmetruman I bet last time but he really didn't get in the race in time. He ran well first out, but had slight excuses. That wasn't the best MOC last time and I think this is tougher so I would go other ways.

I think in the p4 I'd go 1,2,3,4. But I honestly think one of the firsters will win this, I'd like to see who takes the money early and who looks good.

[ultracapper]

Took a full look at the field.

Gunfire is Mercedes/Diodoro and that's one of the leading combos in the country right now. Tino leads the nation in wins right now in 2016. Gunfire is regally bred and didn't go to Oaklawn which probably means he's not a world beater and his form shows that as well. The horse did come back with a couple of good workouts since the poor race Dec 13th although the race came back very live. Gunfire was highly thought of going off at 5/2 in his career debut and we got the tip on him all the way up here in Canada through some sources. Gunfire is a horse to respect but a horse you can also play against.

Drinkatthebar goes for Dale Greenwood who I assure you is better than his 0 for 24 record. The horse is a Minnesota bred and races for Jim Leatherberry who has had his shares of winners and normally is worth betting as they can keep one under the radar if they want to. Normally Clay Brinson runs Leatherberry's horses, but this one shows up in PHX and has okay works. This is the first foal for a mare who won her only start and he goes for a stallion who's offspring tend to take longer to develop. Israel Hernandez is 3 for 8 for Greenwood. A worthy price play if he stays at a price.

Political Debate goes for Kenneth Pearson and Jennifer Reid who has had a good run of late. The barn produces 21% winners first time out and has some okay works coming into the race. The pedigree for this horse is the cool part of him. Misremembered was a nice speedy miler and the damn was the champion Silverbulletday. This mare hasn't thrown anything close to her talent though. It's interesting to think about how this horse got to Kenneth Pearson in Phoenix. Some good stats, okay works, have to respect him.

My Kingdom is the Lund trainee. Good works, total route turf pedigree. Purchased for 15k at Kee 2014. Ramgeet has been good of late. The mare has had 4 winners. Another contender. Watch the tote board.

The 5 The Boss is Back ran okay in some maiden claimers at Emerald. He's been okay and should get a good stalking trip. Good barn in Lucarelli, should stalk the pace but I think he's a likely board finisher but possibly not a winner.

Last time out Bradwell was hustled along early before backing out of it. He now adds Blinkers but he didn't take much money in his first start. I wouldn't expect him to get loose either, but he might set the race up for someone coming from off the pace.

Youcancallmetruman I bet last time but he really didn't get in the race in time. He ran well first out, but had slight excuses. That wasn't the best MOC last time and I think this is tougher so I would go other ways.

I think in the p4 I'd go 1,2,3,4. But I honestly think one of the firsters will win this, I'd like to see who takes the money early and who looks good.

Nice write up. Political Debate has Baffert written all over the breeding. It would be interesting to see the route this horse took to Phoenix.

[maclr11]

The horse was bred by Pegram. I'm sure Baffert had him at Los Al. They never even started him so that's probably not a great sign for his talent level.

[chadk66]

great info Mac. There are a couple dandy bred horses in it but they're at Tup for a reason. Maiden races don't interest me generally but for a seven horse maiden field it's a rather interesting race. One of Diodoro's clients bought a Kela yearling from us in the 2014 yearling sale in MN. They never messed with him as a two year old. The mare was a late bloomer so they just decided they would let him continue to grow up. He is now three and down in AZ. I haven't seen any works from him or anything. My brother was going to see what he could find out when he goes down there in Feb. Can any of you tell me if he has had any published works. Name is Bye Bye Bennie. thanks

[johnhannibalsmith]

He has not and thanks for the reminder on the name. I knew Bye Bye Ladies colt had to be two by now and somewhere in the back of my skull I keep an eye out for him and now and again when I read your posts I kick myself into trying to remember the name so I can take the burden off of my tired brain.

[chadk66]

He has not and thanks for the reminder on the name. I knew Bye Bye Ladies colt had to be two by now and somewhere in the back of my skull I keep an eye out for him and now and again when I read your posts I kick myself into trying to remember the name so I can take the burden off of my tired brain.LOL. I'm hauling Bye Bye's just turned two year to MN to get broke tomorrow. She is bigger than Bennie and very athletic. Not as good looking as Bennie, she is solid bay like her momma. I've had Bye Bye here in ND since last June. She is due to foal in late April.