Betting Public Accuracy Improving?? --Says Who?

[NorCalGreg]

I got to thinking one day...after closely surveying late tote blinks (I find myself doing that a lot now) --the "true favorite" sometimes doesn't end up being the actual favorite. Let me see if I can explain this:

This is based on my experience with my software, the "true favorite" will meet certain conditions....in a sprint, he'll be near the top @ E-1 E-2, class and last SR. Routes, near the top Late, class, and last SR.

This is just loosely based parameters, the discussion isn't about the merits of solid favorites----my point is---I've capped enough to know---and watched enough betting to know--who should be favored, and which favorite is completely false. Now this "true favorite" is usually obvious to all, is well bet, and is afforded well-earned favorite status on the toteboard.

But what I've noticed is---OFTEN....another horse, one that was already well-bet, say late in the betting, was 5-2....is suddenly HAMMERED DOWN...and last blink after the race has started--is suddenly the 6-5 FAVORITE . And way more often than should happen--this horse wins easily. While the "true favorite" doesn't even hit the board.

The point is....someone said the public is better @ picking the favorite now--the win % has increased steadily, because it's the "Information age" they say--a new day is upon us. We have stats, graphs, algorithms, sheets, software, hardware, on and on....

My question is this----is this really "THE BETTING PUBLIC"???
That isn't my money going in, at the last blink-- as the horses are into the far turn, and turning for home. What good are my stats then??

[Stillriledup]

I got to thinking one day...after closely surveying late tote blinks (I find myself doing that a lot now) --the "true favorite" sometimes doesn't end up being the actual favorite. Let me see if I can explain this:

This is based on my experience with my software, the "true favorite" will meet certain conditions....in a sprint, he'll be near the top @ E-1 E-2, class and last SR. Routes, near the top Late, class, and last SR.

This is just loosely based parameters, the discussion isn't about the merits of solid favorites----my point is---I've capped enough to know---and watched enough betting to know--who should be favored, and which favorite is completely false. Now this "true favorite" is usually obvious to all, is well bet, and is afforded well-earned favorite status on the toteboard.

But what I've noticed is---OFTEN....another horse, one that was already well-bet, say late in the betting, was 5-2....is suddenly HAMMERED DOWN...and last blink after the race has started--is suddenly the 6-5 FAVORITE . And way more often than should happen--this horse wins easily. While the "true favorite" doesn't even hit the board.

The point is....someone said the public is better @ picking the favorite now--the win % has increased steadily, because it's the "Information age" they say--a new day is upon us. We have stats, graphs, algorithms, sheets, software, hardware, on and on....

My question is this----is this really "THE BETTING PUBLIC"???
That isn't my money going in, at the last blink-- as the horses are into the far turn, and turning for home. What good are my stats then??

One factor is warmups, win bettors get to see warmups and horizontal Bettors are betting before seeing the warmups.

And no, it's not the 'public' it's probably one or two bettors who have information from vets on which horses are 'plugged in' and which ones to avoid.

[cutchemist42]

Yep, I know what you're saying. Its why Im so sad about us Canadians being blocked from Betfair. I knew what prices I wanted on faves/2nd/3rd choices and could pass or not if I didnt get automatically matched.

With the tote, I can make a bet based on my odds line and see it change by the 1st call and be pissed.

[ebcorde]

to see who was liked an hour ago. I have no clue, I tend the think the Public don't know squat. Some days favorites get killed everywhere, like last Monday.

What I do notice is there is not much separation of the top 3-4-5 Horses and sometimes the top 6-7-8 horses and the public watching the board leans toward the Horses bet down. I know I am guilty of this, then we're all slamming our foreheads when a 16-1 wins for fun.

and yes many times the board tells all, but the board can lead you off a bomb you like, meaning bet more Horses! yours and theirs :lol:


I'm just a layman with some math skills and a PC

[ReplayRandall]

and yes many times the board tells all, but the board can lead you off a bomb you like, meaning bet more Horses! yours and theirs :lol:

Just make sure you use separate bankrolls when betting both....

[ebcorde]

exceptions are big price drops (15-1 to 6-1) and like 2 weeks ago when Chrome ran. I saw the odds bump up to 3-5 had my son put $200 on it just before the gate opened, I simply planned to watch, BUT mY poker playing son asked who will win I said Chrome then Hoppertuntiy and imperal-whatever. the odds bumped to 3/5, I said "Joe, put $200 on Chrome" That was a steal.

My son was reading off the big money being dumped on Hopportunity a clear example of the Public betting the wrong Horse.

IMHO that's the best way to bet american Pharoah, Cal Chrome to win at 3/5- 6/5 odds. MAKE ONLY THAT ONE BET. AND GO HOME

My oldest son has that Poker instinct, when he's around I always do well. like that same Saturday Baffert had two Horses in the same race, one chalk the other like 10-1. My son sniffed that out, I told him "yeah these guys like to fool people and the 2nd horse wins" . Bam! we win, Then next race Doug O'Neil with the same angle Bam! ,we win that too. PUBLIC IS FOOLED BACK TO BACK.
we were done for the day then I see 3/5 on Chrome.

[EMD4ME]

I loved the 2 in the last at AQU Sunday. Was 5/1 ML I believe. Opened 14/1 stayed there. Drifted down to 9/1 late.

I was shocked he was sent and wired the field. Kash kept telling me bet to win, don't be scared of the board. I had a $5 pick 3 and a $34 DD closing to him, so betting to win wasn't on my mind. Being DEAD ON THE BOARD was on my mind :(

But he won and did it the manly way. Took no prisoners and fought on tenaciously till the wire.

You never know. Even in "they know" NY....

[horses4courses]

Isn't the higher strike rate for favorites
due mainly to smaller field size?

The betting public can't overpower
the law of averages....... :bang:

[Cratos]

Isn't the higher strike rate for favorites
due mainly to smaller field size?

The betting public can't overpower
the law of averages....... :bang:
You are correct because as field size decrease, the random probability of the favorite winning increase.

[NorCalGreg]

You are correct because as field size decrease, the random probability of the favorite winning increase.

Well, thanks a lot--you two just blew my thesis statement all to hell, with your probabilities, and laws of averages..damn you!

Seriously...both of you are betting men, you've seen this late "last-blink" betting occur--what do you make of it? I've mentioned previously--I was away from the game since 2003--never seeing a toteboard, racing form, anything---and suddenly about a year ago I come back to this?

Whoever is doing this late betting, this unknown wagering juggernaut, that's only referred to as "THEM" or "THEY" are everywhere, now. They seem to be uncanny in their handicapping skill (far too good to blame it on a few seconds of past-posting)

I gave this some thought....and the only OTHER conclusion I can come up with is---THEY are not as accurate as they seem. THEY are hammering the favorites--who would already be favorites, with or without THEIR money--or THEY are hammering other horses that just aren't winning as often as it appears-- so not affecting the public favorite strike rate.

When did horseracing forums start to read like science fiction?

NCG

[Mandrake]

This is why horizontals should pay consolations. Numerous times after a scratch you think the "x" horse is the favorite, so I'm covered because I didn't use him, or I have it another time and by the time the race is over, he wasn't the favorite after all.

[green80]

Well, thanks a lot--you two just blew my thesis statement all to hell, with your probabilities, and laws of averages..damn you!

Seriously...both of you are betting men, you've seen this late "last-blink" betting occur--what do you make of it? I've mentioned previously--I was away from the game since 2003--never seeing a toteboard, racing form, anything---and suddenly about a year ago I come back to this?

Whoever is doing this late betting, this unknown wagering juggernaut, that's only referred to as "THEM" or "THEY" are everywhere, now. They seem to be uncanny in their handicapping skill (far too good to blame it on a few seconds of past-posting)

I gave this some thought....and the only OTHER conclusion I can come up with is---THEY are not as accurate as they seem. THEY are hammering the favorites--who would already be favorites, with or without THEIR money--or THEY are hammering other horses that just aren't winning as often as it appears-- so not affecting the public favorite strike rate.

When did horseracing forums start to read like science fiction?

NCG

Who? CRW syndicates at offshore adw's.

[ebcorde]

Well, thanks a lot--you two just blew my thesis statement all to hell, with your probabilities, and laws of averages..damn you!

Seriously...both of you are betting men, you've seen this late "last-blink" betting occur--what do you make of it? I've mentioned previously--I was away from the game since 2003--never seeing a toteboard, racing form, anything---and suddenly about a year ago I come back to this?

Whoever is doing this late betting, this unknown wagering juggernaut, that's only referred to as "THEM" or "THEY" are everywhere, now. They seem to be uncanny in their handicapping skill (far too good to blame it on a few seconds of past-posting)

I gave this some thought....and the only OTHER conclusion I can come up with is---THEY are not as accurate as they seem. THEY are hammering the favorites--who would already be favorites, with or without THEIR money--or THEY are hammering other horses that just aren't winning as often as it appears-- so not affecting the public favorite strike rate.

When did horseracing forums start to read like science fiction?

NCG

There was a movie called "The Grifters" about affecting the odds

[no breathalyzer]

I loved the 2 in the last at AQU Sunday. Was 5/1 ML I believe. Opened 14/1 stayed there. Drifted down to 9/1 late.

I was shocked he was sent and wired the field. Kash kept telling me bet to win, don't be scared of the board. I had a $5 pick 3 and a $34 DD closing to him, so betting to win wasn't on my mind. Being DEAD ON THE BOARD was on my mind :(

But he won and did it the manly way. Took no prisoners and fought on tenaciously till the wire.

You never know. Even in "they know" NY....


they don't know shit :D

[Stillriledup]

This is why horizontals should pay consolations. Numerous times after a scratch you think the "x" horse is the favorite, so I'm covered because I didn't use him, or I have it another time and by the time the race is over, he wasn't the favorite after all.

I'm of the very small minority's that says if your horse gets late scratched in a horiz bet, you just lose. No conso and no refund. Highly controversial I know.

[therussmeister]

I'm of the very small minority's that says if your horse gets late scratched in a horiz bet, you just lose. No conso and no refund. Highly controversial I know.
Way too much opportunity for shenanigans. It would be like telling the jockey to fall off, but without the jockey risking life and limb.

[Stillriledup]

Way too much opportunity for shenanigans. It would be like telling the jockey to fall off, but without the jockey risking life and limb.

Racing comissions and judges need to do their jobs and prevent shenanigans and heavily punish who engage in them. Racing is 90 pct honest, it's the 10 pct of the slime that ruin it for everyone else.

[Mandrake]

Sru, why it is ok if your horse gets scratched in the current race you get your money back, if he gets scratched in the second half a double you get a conso. If you are you consistent, then you should lose, lose, and lose. Am I missing something?

[ReplayRandall]

Sru, why it is ok if your horse gets scratched in the current race you get your money back, if he gets scratched in the second half a double you get a conso. If you are you consistent, then you should lose, lose, and lose. Am I missing something?

No, you aren't missing a thing Mandrake. Welcome to the selective reasoning world of SRU.....Where everyone is a loser and a winner, simultaneously.

[Mandrake]

That was good.

[NorCalGreg]

Something I've noticed....the word "shenanigans". Is that word even in popular use today? Seems like a word that's fallen out of favor in today's pop culture....like the word "cahoots", or "hijinks", or even worse: "tomfoolery."

You wanna know who is responsible for "shenanigans" being bandied about so often on this forum----SRU.

I get a chuckle out of that--you use the word so often, you got everyone else using it. I'm not bashing you at all, SRU--just noting the influence your posts have on this board. :cool:

[Mandrake]

We took the hook for all these horizontal bet nonsense. Some tracks pay consos on last leg of p3, some tracks you get the favorite. Someone said it before, we are making bets without seeing post parades, which is a very good point, because I have changed my bet many a time when I see the dapples, the horse that looks really good. But do we get a break? No. Will we ever stop betting these bets? No. But instead of creating something that is fair, they take the easy way out. I'd rather them say you get the third or fourth choice and be on your way. (a little Nicholson, Few Good Men).

[Mandrake]

NCG, a lot of us NY, NJ'ers call it a fugazi race. Without being crude, here is what I mean.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fugazi

[NorCalGreg]

We took the hook for all these horizontal bet nonsense. Some tracks pay consos on last leg of p3, some tracks you get the favorite. Someone said it before, we are making bets without seeing post parades, which is a very good point, because I have changed my bet many a time when I see the dapples, the horse that looks really good. But do we get a break? No. Will we ever stop betting these bets? No. But instead of creating something that is fair, they take the easy way out. I'd rather them say you get the third or fourth choice and be on your way. (a little Nicholson, Few Good Men).

What would you consider "fair" Mandrake? Do you have any answers? Of course you can't see any post parades--that's just one reason those horizontals pay so much.
And about late scratches---your "3rd or 4th" betting choice you find more than fair? Really? I've read your posts---you seem a lot more intelligent than that, bro.
I don't see any other FAIR solution. Life isn't fair, either. In case of a scratch-- I definitely don't want some low-paying conso...I'll take my chances with the favorite, thank you very much.
The only thing more ridiculous ....is to just kill any "live" tickets with a scratched horse-- even SRU knows that's crazy. Drunken mobs, carrying torches, would descend on the stewards offices, and burn the track down.

[Mandrake]

I'm just looking for consistency. With all the genius and all the software and all the intelligence out there, racing came up with some lame, take it or leave it rule. Look around your local OTB, track, whatever. The rules were made for those people, not me and you, we are the minority. Do you think they give a sh**? Not in the least. We are our own worst enemy, I am not saying I am any better than anyone else. I am just saying it should be so much easier then this you get the favorite. Just tell me if I won or lost or got a consolation for using a horse that didn't even make it to the gate. Here is one for you, my buddy bet the p4 at Fairgrounds Monday which paid 3 of 4 but he had 6 horses in the race where the bomb 9 hit so he hit 315 six times. Do you see the irony? If you picked the scratched horse, you get the fave. If you didn't pic the bomb you get paid. A little too inconsistent for me. If you are alive 3 of 3 and this is the 4th leg and you singled and the single got scratched, you should be able to replace, not get some arbitrary horse according to the stupid rules.

[Stillriledup]

Sru, why it is ok if your horse gets scratched in the current race you get your money back, if he gets scratched in the second half a double you get a conso. If you are you consistent, then you should lose, lose, and lose. Am I missing something?

Lets say it's a pick 4, the rules are that if you pick 4 winners, you win. Are we also going to start paying people for picking THREE winners? Or, letting them change to another horse after the bet has already started? That's what 'post time favorite' means. If I watch a replay and decide that a certain horse in leg 4 has some kind of problem and then leg 4 comes around and the problem horse goes to warm up, turns out my prediction was correct and the horse unravels and has to be scratched, why am I not allowed to capitalize on this in a horiz bet? If you bet a pick 4 and you don't pick 4 winners, you lose. You don't get your money back.

If you bet on a horse in the derby futures and your horse doesn't run, they don't refund your cash or put you in the favorite, you just lose and we are ok with it because we know in advance what the rules are.

[ReplayRandall]

Back in the late 80's, early 90's, they used to have bet cards that you penciled in for pick-3's and pick-6's, where you had the option to mark an alternate for each race in case of a scratch.....One day, the cards just simply vanished, no explanation, no recourse......gone.

[Mandrake]

First of all, anyone who bets a derby future, god bless. They are taking a shot. Good for them, they know they are taking a shot. I don't know three races from now that a horse I used threw his jock an he refused to ride because he thinks the horse is a basket case. In my previous post who would have said what the hell, give me the 9 since the horse I used scratched. Yes, the rules are stated, but they are just plain stupid. If I don't get the fave this race when my horse scratched and I bet him to win, then I shouldn't have to get the fave when my horse scratched in a horizontal. I'm betting (using) him to win, aren't I?

[Stillriledup]

Back in the late 80's, early 90's, they used to have bet cards that you penciled in for pick-3's and pick-6's, where you had the option to mark an alternate for each race in case of a scratch.....One day, the cards just simply vanished, no explanation, no recourse......gone.

Must be the racing illuminati.

[Mandrake]

Honestly, I don't want a conso. Just give me my money back. That is fair. Just like when you box 5 in a tri. One scratches, I'm not looking for free money, just give me the residual. I really wouldn't care if you used 5x5x5x1 and the 1 scratched. Give me my money back. I'm not looking for consos or gifts of any kind.

[Stillriledup]

Honestly, I don't want a conso. Just give me my money back. That is fair. Just like when you box 5 in a tri. One scratches, I'm not looking for free money, just give me the residual. I really wouldn't care if you used 5x5x5x1 and the 1 scratched. Give me my money back. I'm not looking for consos or gifts of any kind.

I think the key though is that the only way you get your money back is to take it out of the winners pockets.

[Mandrake]

Horse racing shouldn't make us feel like cocoa future traders in Brazil that have to predict the weather 1 yr. from now. Please, make it simple.

[horses4courses]

Well, thanks a lot--you two just blew my thesis statement all to hell, with your probabilities, and laws of averages..damn you!

Seriously...both of you are betting men, you've seen this late "last-blink" betting occur--what do you make of it? I've mentioned previously--I was away from the game since 2003--never seeing a toteboard, racing form, anything---and suddenly about a year ago I come back to this?

Whoever is doing this late betting, this unknown wagering juggernaut, that's only referred to as "THEM" or "THEY" are everywhere, now. They seem to be uncanny in their handicapping skill (far too good to blame it on a few seconds of past-posting)

I gave this some thought....and the only OTHER conclusion I can come up with is---THEY are not as accurate as they seem. THEY are hammering the favorites--who would already be favorites, with or without THEIR money--or THEY are hammering other horses that just aren't winning as often as it appears-- so not affecting the public favorite strike rate.

When did horseracing forums start to read like science fiction?

NCG

I haven't worked in a racebook since 2004.
Back then, I clearly remember lamenting with some co-workers
(one guy in particular is very knowledgeable on the sport)
for at least 5-10 years before that about late odds changes.
As a player, there are few things more annoying than making
a wager around post time, only to see your odds tumble
as the race is in progress. Win or lose, it leaves a bad taste.

I believe a combination of increased satellite wagering
combined with a rise in the number of tech savvy whales
taking advantage of perceived value in wagering pools
is the cause of these late fluctuations. Unless wagering
gets shut down at zero minutes to post, it's going to continue.

These whales are good - very good. It's a business for most
of them, and they make it pay at others' expense.

As far as past posting goes, I don't believe it exists to any major extent.
Is the sport completely free of it? Of course not.
However, it's very isolated and happens by accident more
often than being a pool-skimming conspiracy.

[SG4]

I'm of the very small minority's that says if your horse gets late scratched in a horiz bet, you just lose. No conso and no refund. Highly controversial I know.

When did the term "small minority" come to mean the same thing as only person ever?

There is no great simplistic fix to the issue of late scratches in multi-race bets, but it's part of the caveat emptor consideration to the wager. I've loaded up into a single in some pick 4's or 5's & gotten scratched out late & lost & it absolutely stinks, but I knew the risks & if I didn't think the risk was worth the reward I'd stick to win betting.

If tracks really wanted to make more fairness for the bettor, I would think consolation payoffs should be in order for any late scratch in a multi-race wager, refund if the horse scratches in leg 1. This really shouldn't be that hard to do with current technology, and it also keeps fairness in the payouts of the actual winning tickets.

[horses4courses]

When did the term "small minority" come to mean the same thing as only person ever?

:lol:

[HuggingTheRail]

Is it "smart money" that comes in at the end, or is it "dumb money" that is already in the pool?

[NorCalGreg]

Is it "smart money" that comes in at the end, or is it "dumb money" that is already in the pool?

Very good food for thought, there. If this money was so "smart"...why are they hammering the 8-5 shots, down to 4-5? I think we've already concluded this "smart" late money hasn't caused the favorite's win percentage to skyrocket--like one would think.

Maybe this money isn't so smart, after all.

[Stillriledup]

When did the term "small minority" come to mean the same thing as only person ever?

There is no great simplistic fix to the issue of late scratches in multi-race bets, but it's part of the caveat emptor consideration to the wager. I've loaded up into a single in some pick 4's or 5's & gotten scratched out late & lost & it absolutely stinks, but I knew the risks & if I didn't think the risk was worth the reward I'd stick to win betting.

If tracks really wanted to make more fairness for the bettor, I would think consolation payoffs should be in order for any late scratch in a multi-race wager, refund if the horse scratches in leg 1. This really shouldn't be that hard to do with current technology, and it also keeps fairness in the payouts of the actual winning tickets.

If you make a derby future book bet in vegas or w Churchill and your horse is injured and knocked off the derby trail, you don't get a refund. But people know the rules in advance, so they're ok with it.

[MONEY]

The bettors have gotten smarter. Just think about, how many times you thought that you
might get 8/1 on a horse, then look up at the board & get disappointed to see 8/5 or 7/2.
Also years ago the Whales used to bet to make a profit. Now they try to just have small
losses or break even and make money by cashing in on rebates.

The late money being stupid money shouldn't surprise you. I go to the track daily and
about one minute to post time the lines get long. I know most of the gamblers & they are
all regulars & only $1.00 & $2.00 bettors. Multiply all those 1s & 2s by all of the places
that people can bet from & it looks like someone is placing a large bet.

[azeri98]

The bettors have gotten smarter. Just think about, how many times you thought that you
might get 8/1 on a horse, then look up at the board & get disappointed to see 8/5 or 7/2.
Also years ago the Whales used to bet to make a profit. Now they try to just have small
losses or break even and make money by cashing in on rebates.

The late money being stupid money shouldn't surprise you. I go to the track daily and
about one minute to post time the lines get long. I know most of the gamblers & they are
all regulars & only $1.00 & $2.00 bettors. Multiply all those 1s & 2s by all of the places
that people can bet from & it looks like someone is placing a large bet.
I agree and most of them don't know what they are doing so they just bet chalk all the time , I don't know how many times I have seen bettors place an exactor bet with the chalk on top and the next 3 lowest odds horses behind it. My home track is Woodbine there is a guy there who made a lot of money in another business who is now retired and comes to play the ponies, he plays tris and supers always with the chalk on top and the next 3 lowest odds horses behind it and gets mad when it doesn't come in that way. There are more of these guys than you would think, It's no different than NFL betting where the public will bet the favorite over the underdog. Its a perceived mentality that the favorite is the better team and should always win, just like racing if it were that easy they wouldn't have janitors sweeping up all the torn up tickets 5 times a day.

[ebcorde]

I haven't worked in a racebook since 2004.
Back then, I clearly remember lamenting with some co-workers
(one guy in particular is very knowledgeable on the sport)
for at least 5-10 years before that about late odds changes.
As a player, there are few things more annoying than making
a wager around post time, only to see your odds tumble
as the race is in progress. Win or lose, it leaves a bad taste.

I believe a combination of increased satellite wagering
combined with a rise in the number of tech savvy whales
taking advantage of perceived value in wagering pools
is the cause of these late fluctuations. Unless wagering
gets shut down at zero minutes to post, it's going to continue.

These whales are good - very good. It's a business for most
of them, and they make it pay at others' expense.

As far as past posting goes, I don't believe it exists to any major extent.
Is the sport completely free of it? Of course not.
However, it's very isolated and happens by accident more
often than being a pool-skimming conspiracy.


I think you are on to something. My memory is bad, a year or so ago 60 minutes did a story on how wall street guys installed a faster communications system that allowed them to make buys/sells faster than most.

so why not Horses? I would think it would be easier to pull off for I doubt they invest a lot of money into the electronic betting platforms. I recall turning down Autotote in the 80's their salary structure was low.

I worked in gaming for a long time, one time a IGT employee technical enough to know code, would modify the machine code inside the chip. He installed a jump to an empty location installed a "virus" which would allow
a player to win based on a combination of quarters to play. Then he would find the location of the machine on the casino floor and have his friend win.

That guy cost me a 1 year pressure filled re-write because all the State gaming commission wanted to verify the CRC of the chip at any time. Old shitty software had to be re-written.

Please accept my poor english I'm not a writer , I'm a coder.

[Tall One]

If you make a derby future book bet in vegas or w Churchill and your horse is injured and knocked off the derby trail, you don't get a refund. But people know the rules in advance, so they're ok with it.


yeah, but you're talking months in advance, not 20 mtp.


ive completely backed off the multi race play--sans the DD--so, it doesn't really affect me, but I could see how those with some live action in those pools would be more concerned with their wagered monies.

[Stillriledup]

yeah, but you're talking months in advance, not 20 mtp.


ive completely backed off the multi race play--sans the DD--so, it doesn't really affect me, but I could see how those with some live action in those pools would be more concerned with their wagered monies.

If regular overnight races were able to be drawn months in advance and open betting as soon as entries came out, they would still have same rules. It's tough for bettors who specifically bet against a horse they believe to have a medical problem and that horse comes out of the race after multi betting has started (and closed) and the people who bet that horse get a cut of the profits from the winning bettors and some winning bettors specifically bet the sequence because of a runner in s later race they had an edge against.

Most ironic thing is that you could bet against a problem horse and not pick the winner and lose, while the people who bet ON that horse get their money back while you get stuck holding a ticket you never would have played in the first place had the problem horse been scratched at 9am.