Decisions

[traynor]

"Group conformity stands in marked contrast to the “wisdom of crowds” effect, whereby aggregating the opinions of large numbers of people gives answers or predictions more accurate than those of any individual. This happens only when members of a crowd make their judgements independently of each other, and it is most effective when a crowd is diverse. In cohesive groups, on the other hand, where members share an identity, the urge for unity overrides all."

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20160113-are-your-opinions-really-your-own

Huh. Must be why the serious bettors use Delphi models. And the losing bettors console themselves with their expertise in sharing identity and striving for unity.

[Robert Fischer]

Interesting.

I think the conformity is strongest in HR when there is a star horse.

[dkithore]

Sorry Traynor, what is Delphi Model? How you see this affecting bettors or other gamblers (barring obvious note made by Robert). Can you elucidate?
Thanks.

[traynor]

Sorry Traynor, what is Delphi Model? How you see this affecting bettors or other gamblers (barring obvious note made by Robert). Can you elucidate?
Thanks.

Popular source for those interested in predictive analytics:
http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook.pdf

Wikipedia has a good overview (considerably shorter).

It is a major topic in business modeling and executive decision-making. And serious wagering by groups.

[traynor]

Interesting.

I think the conformity is strongest in HR when there is a star horse.

Conformity in humans is much like that in simians (or "in other simians," depending on your view of reality). Basic survival dictates following the lead of the 800-pound gorilla or "alpha male"---whichever group member is assumed (or assumes, or even presumes, depending on your linguistic leanings) to fill that role.

Think of Tony Soprano being told his cronies don't laugh at his jokes because they think the jokes are funny, but because they are afraid of (or choose to defer to, or shamelessly schmooze) Tony Soprano.

Most don't realize how much their behavior (and the behavior of those around them) is dictated by "nature."

Specifically, I was referring to group decision-making processes in serious wagering syndicates.

An interesting counterpoint can be found in analysis of the Challenger space shuttle disaster, and Janis' works on "groupthink."

"Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people, in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome. Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints, by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

An expensive habit for bettors.

[Stillriledup]

Interesting.

I think the conformity is strongest in HR when there is a star horse.

Or in football with a star QB. ;)

[traynor]

Or in football with a star QB. ;)
Or in New York horse bettors (and those in a few other locales) who cannot seem to bet enough on favorites. Not because they want to win money, but because they want validation of their self-perception of "being right."

So what? An astute bettor can readily discover the traits that set off the chalk chasers, and do otherwise. Simple strategy. Study the relationship between certain factors, the average odds offered by entries that exhibit those factors, and the number of winners among entries that exhibit those factors.

Consider it the opposite of looking for overlays. It doesn't take much to identify key motivators for the chalk bettors, that are pretty much guaranteed to cost you money if you choose to follow the foolishness of crowds. The motivators are remarkably consistent for a single track or circuit.

Not my brilliant insight. Basic strategy for most serious bettors I know. And I know more than a few.

If you yearn to swim out beyond the breakers in the domain of whales, rather than piddling around in the shallows with the minnows, discovering such basics is a good place to start.