Joe T. on making your own M/L

[karlskorner]

Part 4, the best one yet

http://www.americanturf.com/newsletter/show.cfm?id=437

[cj]

Joe makes a morning line, whether he knows it or not, as does most every other horse bettor.

Every time you decide to bet or not bet a horse, the price is a consideration. It may not be written down or scientifically calculated, but every good player I know uses price as a guideline. We are all very happy when a horse we bet wins and pays $26. But, would you have bet that same horse if he was 1 to 5? A little drastic example, but its just to make a point.

[JimG]

Maybe what Takach and Karlskorner have been saying is there is a minimum they will accept if they are betting to win (say 8-5 for arguments sake) but rather than apply that to an individual horse that is the lowest they will accept for any win bet. As long as the odds look like they will go off at that or higher, it is a bet, regardless of the makeup of the race as long as it is their top selection.

I prefer to look at each race individually and my "line" fluctuates on my top horse from race to race, many times leading me to pass or consider a horse other than my top horse. I do not think Karl or Takach bet horses to win other than their top horse, but I could be wrong.

Jim

[cj]

Some people make a line for all the horses, some for only the ones they consider contenders, and some others only for their top pick. All of them are still making a line of some sorts.

[JimG]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Some people make a line for all the horses, some for only the ones they consider contenders, and some others only for their top pick. All of them are still making a line of some sorts.

I agree with you if your are essentially using the term:

Line=Decision to Bet to Win

Very few people I know bet a horse to win without regard for the payoff. Although, I guess they are out there as horses do go off at 1-9 occasionally. Personally, I have never bet one, even for a souvenir.

Jim

[karlskorner]

I belive what Joe T. has been saying all along "I did my homework (pp's. charts, notes and personal knowledge) I like what I saw in the paddock, I like the warm up etc. and if his choice won, how much did he win (value). I doubt if he would play a 1-9 horse, but if the horse went off at 9/5 and dropped to even money during the race, he is not ashamed to go to the window to collect. It's the end of the day that counts.

[cj]

Originally posted by karlskorner
... It's the end of the day that counts.

The end of any one day doesn't mean much to me, nor does a week. Its months and years that I count up.

[Hosshead]

I like his words,- "manufactured malpractice by the track employee" (track oddsmaker). It's SO true. Some tracks are worse than others, and the ones that are bad, are REALLY bad, and Guilty (of malpractice) in the 1st Degree.

Goes to show that if you use ML odds as part of your "system", and can STILL show a +ROI, you've really accomplished something.

Of course a lot of cappers will say, hey that's great, the more the public is intentionally lied to (which is what it is), the better for me, since I've done my homework, (own ML) and I know where the lies lay. (Or is it lies lie?)