Timeformus question

[kdavis7837]

If a horse has much higher pace numbers on the turf, is labeled a tracker
And switches to dirt for the first time since it's first out Maiden, some 20 or so starts ago, how well do these pace numbers translate to dirt?
Very low turf to dirt trainer number, it should sit behind a leader type but the second pace numbers are 20 or so higher and accordingly should crush this race if they translate or am I looking at this the wrong way from a pace handicapping point of view ?

[cj]

If a horse has much higher pace numbers on the turf, is labeled a tracker
And switches to dirt for the first time since it's first out Maiden, some 20 or so starts ago, how well do these pace numbers translate to dirt?
Very low turf to dirt trainer number, it should sit behind a leader type but the second pace numbers are 20 or so higher and accordingly should crush this race if they translate or am I looking at this the wrong way from a pace handicapping point of view ?

There is no easy answer for this. Some horses switch surfaces fine and run as well or better. Some regress a little, and some can't handle it at all. There are other clues like the trainer and breeding that are probably more reliable than figures in these cases.

I do look deep in the history of the PPs for help. For example, if a horse ran on dirt long ago and ran 60 but is now running 90s on turf, I won't necessarily assume he can't run on dirt. I'll look to see what he ran on turf around the same time. Maybe he was running 60s then too.

And of course, the odds play a big part. I need extra price to back a turf to dirt horse with question marks.

There were a couple turf horses trying dirt for the first time at Santa Anita Saturday. Boozer was in Race 7, an allowance, and had never run on dirt in 17 tries. I checked his breeding ratings and tossed him. He had an 87 turf route rating compared to a 72 dirt route rating. There was no reason to think he'd run as well. He ran a so so 5th at 8-1.

In the Sham, Collected was the race favorite for Bob Baffert. He came in with only two turf races in his PPs. His figures were the best in the race and he was favored at 3-2. His dirt route breeding rating of 83 topped his 78 in turf routes, so it was reasonable to expect he'd handle dirt fine. I wouldn't bet this horse at those odds, but he was a must use in exotics and probably not worth taking a stand against.

There were a few other turf to dirt horses on the card, all with worse dirt ratings in pedigree, and none ran very well, including one that ran last as the 5-2 favorite.

[kdavis7837]

Thanks for reply, it would seem to me a good reason to avoid the race altogether with pace and speed numbers so high on turf compared to rest of the field, unless odds high enough, this horse did run a good 2nd against much better 2 starts back on the dirt (didn't see before because of green lettering ) but should I throw it out ? because I read in your blog about races not being truly run, the final figure was higher than the pace numbers, not by much, the running line was 72 74 83 84, it lost an easy no pressure lead in that race, the trainer's turf to dirt is only a 5. But the funny part is it's listed as a 90 dirt sprint rating compared to a 71 turf route rating at which it has been more successful
There is another turf to dirt in this race with no turf to dirt listed
Just trying to get a handle on these switching surfaces types, it seems to happen regularly and often they do not run like the pace line suggests
looking for a general rule, to use the turf running line, slow it down, or throw out the race altogether
Thanks again

[fiveouttasix]

There is no easy answer for this. Some horses switch surfaces fine and run as well or better. Some regress a little, and some can't handle it at all. There are other clues like the trainer and breeding that are probably more reliable than figures in these cases.

I do look deep in the history of the PPs for help. For example, if a horse ran on dirt long ago and ran 60 but is now running 90s on turf, I won't necessarily assume he can't run on dirt. I'll look to see what he ran on turf around the same time. Maybe he was running 60s then too.

And of course, the odds play a big part. I need extra price to back a turf to dirt horse with question marks.

There were a couple turf horses trying dirt for the first time at Santa Anita Saturday. Boozer was in Race 7, an allowance, and had never run on dirt in 17 tries. I checked his breeding ratings and tossed him. He had an 87 turf route rating compared to a 72 dirt route rating. There was no reason to think he'd run as well. He ran a so so 5th at 8-1.

In the Sham, Collected was the race favorite for Bob Baffert. He came in with only two turf races in his PPs. His figures were the best in the race and he was favored at 3-2. His dirt route breeding rating of 83 topped his 78 in turf routes, so it was reasonable to expect he'd handle dirt fine. I wouldn't bet this horse at those odds, but he was a must use in exotics and probably not worth taking a stand against.

There were a few other turf to dirt horses on the card, all with worse dirt ratings in pedigree, and none ran very well, including one that ran last as the 5-2 favorite.

Good Stuff!

[cj]

Thanks for reply, it would seem to me a good reason to avoid the race altogether with pace and speed numbers so high on turf compared to rest of the field, unless odds high enough, this horse did run a good 2nd against much better 2 starts back on the dirt (didn't see before because of green lettering ) but should I throw it out ? because I read in your blog about races not being truly run, the final figure was higher than the pace numbers, not by much, the running line was 72 74 83 84, it lost an easy no pressure lead in that race, the trainer's turf to dirt is only a 5. But the funny part is it's listed as a 90 dirt sprint rating compared to a 71 turf route rating at which it has been more successful
There is another turf to dirt in this race with no turf to dirt listed
Just trying to get a handle on these switching surfaces types, it seems to happen regularly and often they do not run like the pace line suggests
looking for a general rule, to use the turf running line, slow it down, or throw out the race altogether
Thanks again

What is the name of the horse and the race. I can tell you how I'd handle it, not that I'm right all time of anything, but I play the percentages.

[kdavis7837]

1st race Gulfstream, tomorrow 01/13/16
the 4 horse, Lying Eyes
not looking to profit, just trying to figure out the best way to see surface changes as either a negative or positive, Have seen these types go both ways
looking for consistency as it almost common place
Started using TimeformUs about a year ago, exclusively for the last couple of months, went from a 25% win rate to just under 40%, still trying to figure things out, like a horse with the best overall pace numbers and why it falls apart in certain types of races, Have discovered a couple of tricks by comparing pace lines that have worked with a positive ROI just have not mastered surface changers yet
Its been it and miss in that department
Thanks again

[cj]

1st race Gulfstream, tomorrow 01/13/16
the 4 horse, Lying Eyes
not looking to profit, just trying to figure out the best way to see surface changes as either a negative or positive, Have seen these types go both ways
looking for consistency as it almost common place
Started using TimeformUs about a year ago, exclusively for the last couple of months, went from a 25% win rate to just under 40%, still trying to figure things out, like a horse with the best overall pace numbers and why it falls apart in certain types of races, Have discovered a couple of tricks by comparing pace lines that have worked with a positive ROI just have not mastered surface changers yet
Its been it and miss in that department
Thanks again

I see our computer generated Power Picks have him selected on top. He ran 80 on dirt in that off the turf contest after setting a slow pace (see the fractions/pace figures in blue) and followed with an 84 on turf setting fast fractions. Looks like he is rounding back to his best figures, high 80s, and turning back in distance. He looks pretty solid to me given the weak competition.

[kdavis7837]

Its been my experience that a 3 to 1 ML at gulfstream will open at 6-5 and go south from there making it a no Bet situation anyway
Long story, but need to explain to illustrate my point.
Last week at Santa Anita a similar race shape with a horse switching surfaces
Had the fastest Pace fractions and was labeled a Tracker, there was two other speed types entered, the favorite, The # 2 at 8-5, and the Number 5. Seemed like a good bet considering the Race shape.
The 2 didn't go with the pack and was dead last at the top of the turn, My Bet, the 9, took lead at top of stretch and was 2 lengths ahead after sitting behind the 5 most of the way at a slower pace than its last two races
at 11 to 1, I was ecstatic because I had 40.00 to win on the 9
But the 2, who was projected to be a speed horse came from last and beat the 9 by a neck at the wire
My question, is there anything that indicates this happening as I have seen this a few times now, the projected speed horse runs midpack or in back of the pack or dead last, and in this case the turf pace lines did not hold up , this particular horse had won at distance and surface with similar race shape in the past, been on turf last ten races or so. Dropping in class should have been a no brainer !