Average Horizontal Payouts

[bgbootha]

I am currently working on a report that would look for likely value in horizontal wagering conditions at a given track. For instance this weekend, the tool pointed towards yesterday's late pick 4 at FairGrounds as a likely source of value or high-yeilding pick4. It paid $1,172 on a $0.50 bet (no i didn't hit it, the $13 winner in the 2nd leg got me).

My question is this, where do I find figures to back check this tool, what I am trying to zero in on is average horizontal (DD, P3, P4) payouts for the majority of major tracks. This should allow me to set a likely payout expectancy and focus on instances where the payouts are likely to better than average.

[1st time lasix]

Good luck with this...I am interested in any result as I have gravitated to this type of multi-race exotic. I would think the 15% pick five would be the best "value'..... however I have no data. Please contact me if you come up with anything of note.

[bgbootha]

Good luck with this...I am interested in any result as I have gravitated to this type of multi-race exotic. I would think the 15% pick five would be the best "value'..... however I have no data. Please contact me if you come up with anything of note.

Will do, I have a tool that is producing a daily report from my own system that points out races with likely value that are strung together in a horizontal fashion, what I woudl like now is some figures to back check and further refine to look for horizontal value.

[bgbootha]

field size is something that I am taking into account, obviously four fields of five isn't going to pay nearly as much (likely) as four fields of 10.

The money wagered is interesting as some of the studies (and that is part of what I want to see) doesn't have a direct effect but does create random offshoots of craziness.

But what I would like to do, and the goal of this whole thing, is that I love to play the horizontals, mainly rolling pick3 and pick 4s. But what I want to do is spend my time handicapping the instances that will most likely send me the most likely value.

Think about it this way, I am hoping to make a tool and that can look at the races across the country in a given day, for instance today Monday there are three qualified tracks for my system (PM, LRL, and TUP) all of them have rolling pick3s and a couple of pick4s) now being today only has three tracks, huh no big deal, but a Saturday in June we could be looking at 30 tracks, with a total of 300 possible pick 3 strings and about 60 possible pick4 strings (give or take).

How can I best spend my time handicapping to find the value in those races?

I believe that looking at field size, and pinpointing vulnerable favorites can produce the likelyhood of positive value in a horizontal betting string. This information would produce a better use of my handicapping time.

In practice last weekend (the 2nd and 3rd), the late pick 4 at Santa Anita came up on my report as likely value, the $0.50 on saturday paid $13,000 and the $0.50 on Sunday paid over $29,000. Now both of those are obviously decent payouts.

My quest, is to find a line for my own thinking, at Santa Anita, an estimated payout of over XXXXXX, should hit my radar, but expected under XXXXXX should be a skip. Obviously this may change depending on the track.

But I guess that's what I am trying to figure out.

[Sinner369]

I am currently working on a report that would look for likely value in horizontal wagering conditions at a given track. For instance this weekend, the tool pointed towards yesterday's late pick 4 at FairGrounds as a likely source of value or high-yeilding pick4. It paid $1,172 on a $0.50 bet (no i didn't hit it, the $13 winner in the 2nd leg got me).

My question is this, where do I find figures to back check this tool, what I am trying to zero in on is average horizontal (DD, P3, P4) payouts for the majority of major tracks. This should allow me to set a likely payout expectancy and focus on instances where the payouts are likely to better than average.

I hear what you are saying but I am more interested in the "Structure" of a Pick 4 or Pick 5..........like what is the best format (structure) to use when playing a Pick 4 or Pick 5........for example like.......3x4x5x1=$60 or 6x4x5x2 = $240 on a one dollar ticket......Is there one set structure to use that would fit all situations?

Is it best to always have a single in one of the legs to cut down costs?

[UltimateBetter]

How do I find this report.

[bgbootha]

I hear what you are saying but I am more interested in the "Structure" of a Pick 4 or Pick 5..........like what is the best format (structure) to use when playing a Pick 4 or Pick 5........for example like.......3x4x5x1=$60 or 6x4x5x2 = $240 on a one dollar ticket......Is there one set structure to use that would fit all situations?

Is it best to always have a single in one of the legs to cut down costs?

Personally I would answer with an emphatic no...my structure is completely based off of what my handicapping tells me.

Now that being said, I am a firm believer in the ABCX method that Steven Crist put out there and use that as my bible for multirace wagers. But I think presetting a structure like 3x4x5x1 is really ignoring the skillset of your own handicapping.

[bgbootha]

How do I find this report.

it is something that I generate based off of my False Favorites report. This horizontal value report isn't out there in the public as I am still in its infancy of development.

My false favorite report that I share look like this...

http://s10.postimg.org/h24mlf6ax/Capture.jpg

Originally I just looked for connected false favorites, for instance today's FalseFavorite report pointed out connected races in the late pick 4 at Turf Paradise (I am still alive with two races left on a couple tickets)

*(Update: the 8 in the third leg, just knocked me out, ironically I had the 10 who finished a very close 2nd and was a nice 30-1), the good news is the 8 was still a solid 24-1 and per my report the pick 4 should produce a solid return.

The report I am trying to create would take into account, field size, false favorites and I am thinking about some kind of average pick4 payout to leverage the time spent handicapping.

(also personal note...long time no see old friend!, not sure if you remember me, but quite a few years ago I spent much time playing the late night ponies Charlestown, Delta, etc) with you and JoeyP online)

[bgbootha]

Well the pick4 at Turfway didn't even get hit, I had the 8 included in a few of my tickets in that last leg too, but obviously I didn't hit it...LOL

http://s29.postimg.org/jwet03rlz/Dang_Turf_Paradise.jpg

That being said, another false favorite produces a huge winner and another string of false favorites produces a solid pick4 value.

[Baron Star Gregg]

Personally I would answer with an emphatic no...my structure is completely based off of what my handicapping tells me.

Now that being said, I am a firm believer in the ABCX method that Steven Crist put out there and use that as my bible for multirace wagers. But I think presetting a structure like 3x4x5x1 is really ignoring the skillset of your own handicapping.

I completely agree. I have adjusted the Crist method slightly to make the play easier to construct while accomplishing the same goals. I typically end up with 7 tickets in a Pick 4. If all 4 winners are A-horses, I cash all the tickets. If 3 winners are A-horses and one is a B, I cash 3 of 7 tickets. If I get one C or two Bs with the rest being A-horses, I cash 1 ticket.

I keep daily summaries of the races at the tracks I play and include the payoffs of multi-race wagers. I don't have hard and fast rules to calculate expected payoffs on Pick-Xs but I have the information in front of me to make an educated guess as to an estimated payoff being enough value to justify the cost of the play. Does it always work? Of course not but years ago I learned the hard way that I'd rather not win because I didn't play than lose because I dropped a horse to stay within a budget.