Turf Paradise 1-5-2015 $72k pick 6 carryover

[ebcorde]

These are class ratings only no speed, no pace figs, no picks.


first column is aggregate of class ratings from column 2 (Trainer win place), column 3 (horse's class) and Horse performance.
usually top 3/4 from column 2 and 3 win the bulk of the races.

I use this method to bet higher priced horses.



TUP201601051 1 111 87 62
TUP201601051 2 109 129 61
TUP201601051 6 73 95 21
TUP201601051 3 68 105 21
TUP201601051 5 0 49 0
TUP201601051 4 0 76 0


TUP201601052 5 67 80 21
TUP201601052 6 66 102 20
TUP201601052 7 64 105 20
TUP201601052 3 50 75 21
TUP201601052 1 39 53 28
TUP201601052 2 31 25 20
TUP201601052 4 24 18 21


TUP201601053 6 90 104 30
TUP201601053 3 74 118 22
TUP201601053 1 62 97 21
TUP201601053 2 62 99 21
TUP201601053 4 61 83 20
TUP201601053 5 52 94 20
TUP201601053 7 30 33 22


TUP201601054 6 86 95 35
TUP201601054 2 83 136 24
TUP201601054 7 83 101 44
TUP201601054 5 75 76 37
TUP201601054 8 74 83 40
TUP201601054 1 69 85 27
TUP201601054 4 58 85 27
TUP201601054 3 49 73 20


TUP201601055 1 105 141 43
TUP201601055 6 103 101 59
TUP201601055 8 83 93 37
TUP201601055 2 79 114 32
TUP201601055 4 78 117 20
TUP201601055 7 75 76 42
TUP201601055 5 64 91 32
TUP201601055 3 58 74 24


TUP201601056 5 121 127 64
TUP201601056 1 93 122 31
TUP201601056 10 88 93 43
TUP201601056 9 85 108 23
TUP201601056 3 75 97 20
TUP201601056 6 71 88 21
TUP201601056 7 66 70 26
TUP201601056 2 62 75 33
TUP201601056 4 48 66 21
TUP201601056 8 32 26 24


TUP201601057 1 91 122 21
TUP201601057 10 85 134 26
TUP201601057 8 76 99 24
TUP201601057 5 76 113 30
TUP201601057 6 67 89 25
TUP201601057 9 65 81 21
TUP201601057 7 59 91 21
TUP201601057 2 58 52 21
TUP201601057 3 48 81 21
TUP201601057 4 38 49 21


TUP201601058 5 108 109 54
TUP201601058 6 102 120 55
TUP201601058 7 83 115 25
TUP201601058 1 80 114 25
TUP201601058 10 75 83 21
TUP201601058 8 75 102 20
TUP201601058 9 68 105 21
TUP201601058 2 65 92 20
TUP201601058 4 63 90 22
TUP201601058 3 63 97 22

[kipdog99]

Pretty interesting just curious then from top to bottom in the horse number(post position)?

On average hows your system work keeping in mind I'm not expecting gaurantees here :)

[kipdog99]

I'm down to play some turf paradise today I dont have big pic 6 coin but I'd be happy if I could turn 20 into 50-100 :p

[johnhannibalsmith]

Was just about to see if I could get a report on the track after a couple of days of rain so I could decide whether or not to plow a few more bucks into some more past performances for the card. :)

I think I've played the pick six twice ever at TuP, but today sounds like a good day to try again.

[kipdog99]

Glad to havee you on board sir! :)

[johnhannibalsmith]

For anyone playing along, track has had a good seal and should be okay to run on, but there is more rain slated to arrive around 11am taco time. Hopefully it holds off for another 30 minutes or so and we can get as many riders into the room as possible.

Hopefully I don't blow the forum page up with the photo, but this is what we have as of about 9:20am taco time.

[ebcorde]

because I can't get a consistent 20-1.30-1 play with speed and pace. I have success with this method.

as an example I'll show you how I use it.

although I keyed off the aggregate I determine who to play based on odds and column 3. I'm certain all of you have ways to measure class, try it

so today at Turf I would look at

Race 2 #1 horse has a 28 and 15-1 (handicapper got it wrong brisnet PP has #1 tops)

Race 3 #6 at 8-1 with a 30 rating

Race 5 #6 at 10-1 with a 59 rating

Race 7 #5 at 10-1 with 30 rating

Race 8 #6,#5 20-1,8-1 with a 54,55 rating

based on the odds I'll be box exacta on 5-6 in race 8. monitoring the odds are key. if the odds drop I'm less interested. I know it's foolish to bet every one so I try to bet the higher odds. My cut off minimum is 8-1.

[kipdog99]

I look forward to following :)

[ebcorde]

Pretty interesting just curious then from top to bottom in the horse number(post position)?

On average hows your system work keeping in mind I'm not expecting gaurantees here :)

it's fairly new extract of a program I've used for years, I removed speed,pace and normalized my class numbers. I found that ignoring speed,pace, allowed longshots to be visible to me.


anyway I got the idea from watching too many races where the 3-5/2-1's give up and 20-1/30-1 go by. Supers are paying $10k, exactas $800.

so I started working on sniffing them out and found class, backclass is the best method

[johnhannibalsmith]

Come on guys let's see if we can get some changes to EQB eventually so we can actually make some decisions...

I've got to say the first pass through without any (okay one early) scratches to consider has me lacking any real confidence about a pick six. I think that I'm going to have to make quite a few tough choices in these fields that remain intact as I have very little separating three to five in many of the races.

But, we can get a little head start on the non-pick six races, I guess.

Race 1: Can't bet this one, probably. I want to root for M/L favorite Waste It Wisely anyway. Mika Philla Pee Mmmareeeno needs to get a picture.

And I really didn't like anyone except Circus Ride as an alternative, which unless one of the firsters or Molly's gets a lot of action will probably be the logical second choice.

But for academic completion, Circus Ride ran against what is likely way better in the TuP debut and broke lousy but still managed to chase a solid pace before wilting. Since then he has worked very well twice and with the notation for blinkers added today, I'm going to have to give some of the credit for that to the blinkers and assume they've been on in the works. If he was to go off at, around, or higher than the 7-2 M/L, I might put myself in one of those spots where I am betting him and rooting for Yammmareeeeno on the one.

Race 2: Lovely condition we have here - non-winners since August AND trainers stabled at Tup AND trainer has not won a race at the meet.

Sounds cool, right? Well of course the odds-on 4-5 M/L favorite is a horse that has yet to run at the track coming from Cal Fairs and the trainer has yet to run a horse at the meet almost midway through. Yay.

Screw that horse. How the hell has Sarina Obergfell run 20 head without winning? She is, in my opinion, in the upper percentiles of trainers in Phoenix. Obviously the stock isn't quite there this year, but she's rarely able to stay this cold no matter what she has.

Anyway, regardless of that, I like Queen of the Green here just on her own merit. After having the summer off, she's run three times now and hasn't been too good. But, she had a little trouble two back and then showed better speed before wilting late last time. But I think it's safe to say with Davey Lopez back in PHX and up today that she'll find it harder to just wilt. He got three good efforts out of her at the end of the meet last season and the filly has run well on off tracks at TuP before, though it is a little unnerving that one of her all-time worst races was over a sealed track in between excellent races over non-sealed off tracks.

Whatever, she isn't 4-5. She also probably won't stay up at 8-1 M/L, but really I probably throw a few her way at anything close to 5-1.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Come on guys let's see if we can get some changes to EQB eventually so we can actually make some decisions...

...

Well, sorry fellas. Just flipped on the feed and in spite of the sloppy track, that one scratch is still the only one being listed, which is far from what I expected. Maybe everyone is waiting to see what happens with the first before they plaster the scratch board, but still figggered one a few guys using the condition as a dandy reason to retreat and reload for a better spot.


Edited: Ugghhh.... EQB just posted 6/5 Felicity Doll as a scratch. On my preliminary run through I had her tabbed as one that might work as a single depending on other scratches even though I liked four in the race pretty well. Not the one I wanted out. :(

[Enigma]

1 UNIT WIN..2 UNITS PLACE:

4th:#4 COOPERS STORM
7th:#10 TEXAS BUCCANEER
8th:#7 Ms MUMBA

[johnhannibalsmith]

...
Race 1: Can't bet this one, probably. I want to root for M/L favorite Waste It Wisely anyway. Mika Philla Pee Mmmareeeno needs to get a picture.

And I really didn't like anyone except Circus Ride as an alternative, which unless one of the firsters or Molly's gets a lot of action will probably be the logical second choice.

But for academic completion, Circus Ride ran against what is likely way better in the TuP debut and broke lousy but still managed to chase a solid pace before wilting. Since then he has worked very well twice and with the notation for blinkers added today, I'm going to have to give some of the credit for that to the blinkers and assume they've been on in the works. If he was to go off at, around, or higher than the 7-2 M/L, I might put myself in one of those spots where I am betting him and rooting for Yammmareeeeno on the one.

...

Welp, was getting about 8-1 on both the 1-3 and 3-1 exactas and decided to get invested early in the hopes that it sharpens something as I need to make some conclusion about the surface and any bias real fast in order to trim this pick 6. Played a simple $5 box, 1 & 3. Don't really like either firster, the six, the two has some pluses but short price + Stevens in the mud made this kinda hard to pass on after all with the exclusions when the exacta will pays looked halfway respectable.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Couldn't have bet the horse I really liked Circus Ride at 2-1 anyway so not going to cry that he romped and the 3-5 fave couldn't close any ground.

Well, I'm sort of going to cry because they basically ran around the track in order and that is not going to be a winning formula for the selections I've been narrowing down to for the pick six. Still, it was some bad maidens and it was conceivable that the six would improve on the drop enough to run second and other than that, the race ran more or less how it looked like it might. So it may not indicate a thing. And I really don't want to go scrambling to rearrange my tickets on the merit of a race like that. Unfortunately, the next race has a chance to go sort of the same way and land me in the same conundrum.

[NorCalGreg]

Are you guys seriously--gonna ignore the :1: DIXIES HONOR??? You were all over this one 2 weeks ago, john. Now that DIXIE'S in a better spot--your in the Sarina O camp?

[johnhannibalsmith]

Are you guys seriously--gonna ignore the :1: DIXIES HONOR??? You were all over this one 2 weeks ago, john. Now that DIXIE'S in a better spot--your in the Sarina O camp?

Dixie's Honor? I know I'm getting brain dead but I remember you mentioning that Ellis horse that had run on the turf and saying a little about Ellis/Seifers, but don't remember having a positive opinion on this mare.

[kipdog99]

ebcorde Well done I think 1 ran a bang up race! :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

That one just really muddled up any thoughts about the track.

Granted it was a bunch of bad horses and the 6 just stopped while the 7 kept right on going on the pace, but the others didnt exactly look horrible hampered trying to rally into the pace. Gonna have to watch this a couple of times and gulp a few times and pull the trigger, I guess.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Okay I'll post the final version of the ticket as wagered for now and try to justify it afterwards I guess. Lord know when I start typing I can ramble.

R3) $1 P6: 3,5,6 - 2,4,6,8 - 1,2 - 7 - 8,9,10 - 1,5,7 = $216

[kipdog99]

Good luck sir! Good luck to all of you!!

[kipdog99]

alright John you survived the first leg! :lol:

[kipdog99]

To bad your 6 missed the break or he would have been right there me thinks :eek:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Race 3) Right away I'm figuring that I'm screwed because I don't really like the even money M/L favorite all that much and other than Higgs, could talk myself into almost anyone. Eventually, I knew I couldn't just play it like another wager an exclude Secret Wishes entirely. Seven Torrents is a horse that obviously isn't quite the reliable old guy that he once was, but he's still a good old horse, and a good old horse with speed. Formal Joker hasn't run a bad race here and has done it a few ways. Again, I wish I were about to continue on to Pursuxit and Smoke Town and the others, but I had to draw the line on this ticket somewhere.

Race 4) I would have liked to include Inclined to Win for a few reasons here, but in the end, again, having to trim somewhere I just opted to rely on class to get me to four. I just think that the 2,4,6, and 8 are the best in the broad sense, those that really don't look like they entered out of line totally in this other than allowance condition.

Race 5) Definitely did not like taking two favorites in a non-two for recently turned three-year-olds, especially when neither of them is anything special. But, necessity is the mother of invention or something like that so I did. I'm not so sure that Heber deserves to be 8-5 M/L over Bridge Baron at 7-2 when the former outfinished the latter by a neck when they met two back, but either way I had to use both for that reason. Of course, on top of recognizing that half of the field could improve enough to crack either of them, I have two veteran jocks that aren't exactly world renowned for their love of riding off tracks.

Race 6) I wanted to single Felicity Doll here and wash my hands of it. She scratched. I was left with Never Ask Why, Gliding on Air, and Outrageous Deal in my original win candidate rankings. Outrageous Deal hasn't run since Boise and hasn't done a lot, but she was running against winners in both of her career races. Granted, the filly that wrecked her both times isn't much and hasn't been close often at the meet, but she is facing non-fours while this one gets to face awful maidens. Gliding on Air is trained by Fast Eddie Sepich, a man that infuses faith into my betting. Needless to say, I'm praying that she needs another one off the shelf since I talked myself into singling Never Ask Why. She dropped to this level for the first time last out and ran pretty well. Not great, but pretty well, and let's just hope that it spiked a little confidence in everyone human and equine today.

Race 7) Maybe the toughest race to settle on because I have no real pace factor among my picks. I wanted to use Right Idea and almost did. I wanted to use Mack's Tiger Paw and almost did to a lesser degree. I kinda wanted to use Double Shuffle because he's just better than these but I quit betting on him after the 50th time in a row he spotted them 10 at the break. I have a bad feeling here and doubt that I would play any of my picks as win bets on a normal ticket, but in the pick six context, well, I hope that I got it right.

Race 8) Would have liked to use Jockey Joe's recent claim as well but I had to really muster up the will to go three deep and get up over $200 with the ticket. At one point I had it marked out as a $144 ticket and crossed Diodoro's Ms. Mumba off the page, but smacked myself a time or two until I remembered that this is the Diodoro version that wins constantly even if he doesn't look too great on paper. I hope that the rail filly Flyer Wright gets overlooked on tickets if we make it that far because if there is some track love for speedsters than I think she's going to enjoy the drop to the bottom here.

Sorry for not being more detailed on why I liked or didnt like this or that on the ticket but I need to hit the head and catch a smoke pronto.

[fight]

any chance you will do gp for wed?/ good work :ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

Same son of a bitch that bounced me from the pick 5 when he broke his maiden bounces me again. :lol:

If you don't think that wasn't going through my head dreaming this mess up...

Just didn't think he beat much of anything that day and wasn't about to use him on a pick 6 ticket just because he wrecked me once before. :(

[ultracapper]

How big did the pot get?

[johnhannibalsmith]

I think it got to right around $250k. Probably more in today's pool than just about every other TuP P6 pool combined. Good for them, good news is hard to find.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Pick 6 paid $827 dont know what the final pool was

[johnhannibalsmith]

Pick 6 paid $827 dont know what the final pool was

$280,396

I always forget I can look it up on the ADW. :D

I had a feeling it was necessary to take a stand against Bella Luz in the 6th for it to pay anything, but didn't think it could possibly come back that low. Even the other contenders that I had in the last were paying only marginally more, so can't really blame it on the Diodoro big single mentality.

[ultracapper]

That's a lot of winning tickets at TUP. But it obviously attracted a lot of players that rarely look at TUP. Hopefully they can retain some of them, or at least get some action now and again from them. Hopefully it put them on some players radar that didn't give it the time of day before.