Double Carryover at Santa Anita Jan 7th

[Donttellmeshowme]

who is in?

[azeri98]

Too rich for my blood. :(

[1st time lasix]

I always play double carryovers. Best time to step up.

[azeri98]

How much do you guys spend on a ticket? I you don't mind me asking.

[no breathalyzer]

not worth making its own thread but Turf Paradise has a 72k pick six carryover today 1/5/2016.. $1 base !

[Donttellmeshowme]

How much do you guys spend on a ticket? I you don't mind me asking.



me and 2 other guys got 2K we want to spend on it

[Donttellmeshowme]

I always play double carryovers. Best time to step up.


Just pulled up the PP's let me know what u thinking?

[kipdog99]

I sadley dont have Pick 6 carry over money but I'll ****ing cheer your horses on and hopefully make a buck or two on the way!

[Baron Star Gregg]

I'll be playing this one. My preliminary handicapping looks promising. I'll finalize my ticket after scratches. After seeing the horses in the post parade for the first leg, I'll possibly adjust those selections and place the wager.
Do you realize that giving somebody the one horse that makes their ticket a winning one may cost you five figures?

[Donttellmeshowme]

I'll be playing this one. My preliminary handicapping looks promising. I'll finalize my ticket after scratches. After seeing the horses in the post parade for the first leg, I'll possibly adjust those selections and place the wager.
Do you realize that giving somebody the one horse that makes their ticket a winning one may cost you five figures?



The 7th and 8th races are not easy

[Donttellmeshowme]

Race 3- I think you can use 4 horses in this race 1-6-7-8. But with the 7th and 8th race with full fields i would only go 2 deep in this race. Im really not a fan of the 1 horse but Gonzalez is riding very well these days. I think the 7 horse is the one to beat and his last work was super. 6 horse gets blinkers on and he just might wire this field. Should run well with the hood on. I would go 6-7 in this race for the Pick 6.


Any other opinions are welcome on this race or any race in the Pick 6 sequence.

[ultracapper]

Race 3- I think you can use 4 horses in this race 1-6-7-8. But with the 7th and 8th race with full fields i would only go 2 deep in this race. Im really not a fan of the 1 horse but Gonzalez is riding very well these days. I think the 7 horse is the one to beat and his last work was super. 6 horse gets blinkers on and he just might wire this field. Should run well with the hood on. I would go 6-7 in this race for the Pick 6.


Any other opinions are welcome on this race or any race in the Pick 6 sequence.

I'd think you can stick to the 6 and 7 also in the 3rd. 90% those 2 will get you through. #8 is the one that's going to try and steal it.

[kevb]

Live or die with three singles, and go as deep as you can afford to in the other three legs.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Live or die with three singles, and go as deep as you can afford to in the other three legs.



3 singles? Which 3 are u singling?

[kevb]

3 singles? Which 3 are u singling?

I don't know yet. I just hope I don't go deep in the races that the favorite waltzes home as easy as he pleases. The singles will probably kill my ticket, but when they do win, it's a beautiful thing to behold.

[ultracapper]

I really like the 7 in the 3rd, but God, it would be awful to get knocked out in the 1st leg.

I suppose you could go 4 deep in there and still get knocked out. Nature of the bet.

[1st time lasix]

Live or die with three singles, and go as deep as you can afford to in the other three legs. **********Any steadfast way to approach a multi-race sequence is not recommended....Saying to play "three singles" might be ok once in a while if your handicapping dictates that----- but far more often than not you are simply donating with that "blinkers on " approach.

[Donttellmeshowme]

I really like the 7 in the 3rd, but God, it would be awful to get knocked out in the 1st leg.

I suppose you could go 4 deep in there and still get knocked out. Nature of the bet.




With only 8 horses in the 3rd race i prefer to go with only 2 horses and spread in the last 2 races where they are full fields in the last 2 races.

[azeri98]

I am not going to play the pick six but I will post my top 2 picks in the sequence,
R3- :6: :7:
R4- :1: :6:
R5- :1: :7:
R6- :1: :4:
R7- :3: :5:
R8- :9: :11:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I am not going to play the pick six but I will post my top 2 picks in the sequence,
R3- :6: :7:
R4- :1: :6:
R5- :1: :7:
R6- :1: :4:
R7- :3: :5:
R8- :9: :11:'

That is only a $128 ticket. Why not take a swing at it?

[kevb]

[QUOTE=1st time lasix]**********Any steadfast way to approach a multi-race sequence is not recommended....Saying to play "three singles" might be ok once in a while if your handicapping dictates that----- but far more often than not you are simply donating with that "blinkers on " approach.[/QUOTE

I agree with you, 1st Time. Keeping an open mind and adjusting your plan of attack to the circumstances at hand is frequently the road to success. I offered the 3 singles plan as food for thought. I start off with the three singles plan because it fits my bankroll, and has led to success. I might single two legs on Thursday. For me, one single is the road to 4 out of 6. I can't afford to go deep enough in the other legs. It is. Very tough nut to crack. Kudos to everyone who scores.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Race 4


1-2-3-4 thats who i would play on the ticket.

Could Touched by Austism be a single? Could be but is his poly form going to carry over to the dirt? Wondering Ways should love the route out of a Gone West mare and Baze is back on a good sign. The 2 horse sure does have the right running style and should sit right off the pace. I think you can use 4 horses but im not i might use 3. Would rather spread in the last 2 races.

So who is making Touched by Austism a single?

[Donttellmeshowme]

Race 5

Another single Ponder Lea? Like the running style of West Mid alot. Audra gets Bejarano and O'Neill is 23% first off the claim. I could use 3 horses in here but will narrow it down to 2

So is Ponder Lea another single?

[ultracapper]

I've handicapped the 3rd, 5th and 6th, and my opinion is the 5th is a big time trap. That is going to be a tough leg to get through on 2 horses. Toss the 2 at your own risk. She dug in tough to the 1/8th pole in both her comeback races, mile races off a 4 month layoff. When you're not looking, that's when Scolamieri will knock you up side your head. Nice blow out Saturday morning. He snuck some speed into her, and she's the only horse in the field to get the first quarter in sub 22. Ponder Lea is going to have to rate in this one, unless all those gate works did the trick. She's had to hustle up in each of her starts because she's not the sharpest breaker you'll ever see. Hustling up on this group may never get you there. There's no guarantee she is capable of rating, and she certainly doesn't tower over this group to the point she can get there with any kind of trip. Bejarano, who rides live Baltas's all the time, left for the new O'Neill runner. This race is a crapshoot. Who knows how good the 6 is. She got into her last race under the waiver claimer rule, so the connections just stole that money. I handicapped that race and bet her. She was a no brainer in that race, but evidently not good enough to keep Maldonado in the saddle.

1,2,6,7

All 4 have a couple big "yes" traits, but they all have demerits as well. Brutal race.

[Donttellmeshowme]

I am not going to play the pick six but I will post my top 2 picks in the sequence,
R3- :6: :7:
R4- :1: :6:
R5- :1: :7:
R6- :1: :4:
R7- :3: :5:
R8- :9: :11:




Tell me what you see in the 11 horse in the 8th race besides a win on a wet track?

[azeri98]

Tell me what you see in the 11 horse in the 8th race besides a win on a wet track?
Just looking for a price in one of these races it looks very chalky to me. If you look back at his form at Del Mar and before he was running on the lead and in much higher classes if he can regain a little bit of that form I think he could win, I am not very confident in it, don't get me wrong just looking for a value play. The other value is the :1:

[Donttellmeshowme]

Just looking for a price in one of these races it looks very chalky to me. If you look back at his form at Del Mar and before he was running on the lead and in much higher classes if he can regain a little bit of that form I think he could win, I am not very confident in it, don't get me wrong just looking for a value play. The other value is the :1:


If you go back to his summer form then yes he could be included but lately his form is not good. Now with a wet track he might move up. The 1 horse is alright and gets Bejarano but he has rode him before and the closest hes got to the winner is 6 lengths.

[RunDustyRun]

Capped the pick five but I like the :5: and :7: in the third...the :5: retains Baze and Mullins has heated up....well bet in his last but Mullins usually never has them cranked first out...bred to rout

almost singled the :1: in the fourth but have a feeling the :3: may have a say...second start, sprint to route and retains Baze who didn't ride him hard first out

like the :3: in the fifth as a single...best closer in what should be a fast pace, best races have been on dirt and at this distance, freshened, series of sharp drills coming in....good luck

[azeri98]

If you go back to his summer form then yes he could be included but lately his form is not good. Now with a wet track he might move up. The 1 horse is alright and gets Bejarano but he has rode him before and the closest hes got to the winner is 6 lengths.
I know they are risky picks but like I said before the card looks very chalky to me I think there is going to be a lot of winning tickets. I think the :6: has a shot in the 4th.

[ultracapper]

Race 6

Here may be your single, and separator.

There's a real chance #3 Vegas Bound could shake loose from this field at the 5/16th. She looks primed for a very nice effort. 6-1 ML, and I'd guess she will go off right around there also. Nothing to keep her from running in a very forward position here, and she can run a live 3rd quarter when things up front aren't too pressured. She gave Golds Venice every bit of everything she could handle down the stretch last time. Official margin of victory is a head. Makes me wonder why the needed a 2 minutes photo finish review.

She's going to pop a good one here.

[maliksealy210]

Race 6

Here may be your single, and separator.

There's a real chance #3 Vegas Bound could shake loose from this field at the 5/16th. She looks primed for a very nice effort. 6-1 ML, and I'd guess she will go off right around there also. Nothing to keep her from running in a very forward position here, and she can run a live 3rd quarter when things up front aren't too pressured. She gave Golds Venice every bit of everything she could handle down the stretch last time. Official margin of victory is a head. Makes me wonder why the needed a 2 minutes photo finish review.

She's going to pop a good one here.

I was coming into the thread to make a case for a different horse in Race 6, the 3 Ipray. The last effort at Del Mar is turning into a Key race. 5th beaten 7 1/2 doesn't look great until you dive into the next out races. She was beaten less than a length by third place finisher Can Can Babe, who won by 10 1/4 running at Claiming 20 at Los Al, and then stepped up to Claiming 25 at Santa Anita and won by 1 1/2 last week.

The last race she was closing ground late, and was too far off the pace, but she was also carrying the highest weight in that allowance. Now, with the seven-pound bug aboard in a race with less pace, she should have less ground to close.

I think the 6th is the toughest race, and I would suggest going deep if your budget allows.

[ultracapper]

I was coming into the thread to make a case for a different horse in Race 6, the 3 Ipray. The last effort at Del Mar is turning into a Key race. 5th beaten 7 1/2 doesn't look great until you dive into the next out races. She was beaten less than a length by third place finisher Can Can Babe, who won by 10 1/4 running at Claiming 20 at Los Al, and then stepped up to Claiming 25 at Santa Anita and won by 1 1/2 last week.

The last race she was closing ground late, and was too far off the pace, but she was also carrying the highest weight in that allowance. Now, with the seven-pound bug aboard in a race with less pace, she should have less ground to close.

I think the 6th is the toughest race, and I would suggest going deep if your budget allows.

Ipray is #5. Not being a wise guy, just a quick correction. Anyhow, funny how different handicappers see it different. I was able to only toss 1 of the 7 in the 5th with any confidence. Aside from #4 Blooming Hannah in the 5th, I wouldn't be surprised who wins that race. The 6th on the other hand, I feel like #3 Vegas Bound just needs to be handled correctly by Maldonado, and she should be right there at the wire. I see the #6 and #9 with a reasonable shot in here, I'm interested to see how #1 and #4 do here, and I would love to lay #8 all day long. I'm wondering why Baze isn't on #5. Bejarano rode her first time for Palma, then chose a Belvoir over this one 22Nov, and now Baze moves on. I know jocks have to make decisions, but I get a little gun shy when they start dancing around a horse too much. Unfortunately for the P6 players, the tote may disclose some valuable info on the #5 that will be too late coming for their use.

BTW, the winner of the key race at Delmar that you mentioned, is the horse that Vegas Bound stretched to the limits in her last race. Golds Venice looks to be developing into a win type race filly.

[Donttellmeshowme]

:6: :7:
:1: :2: :4: :7:
:1: :3: :7:
:4: :5: :8:
:1: :3: :4: :5: :11: :14:
:9:

$864


probably get knocked in 1st leg

[ultracapper]

Had to stop and watch the 2nd. Toledo Eddie, a very nice horse, just set fractions of 22.2 45.2 for a mile, and finished the job in 1:35 and change. There's been a lot of water down there the last couple days and maybe it sped the track up a little. The times at SA the first 2 weeks haven't been SA-like for the most part.

[ultracapper]

:6: :7:
:1: :2: :4: :7:
:1: :3: :7:
:4: :5: :8:
:1: :3: :4: :5: :11: :14:
:9:

$864


probably get knocked in 1st leg

Naturally. They'd hate you to have any fun.

HAHA!! GOOD LUCK.

[maliksealy210]

Ipray is #5. Not being a wise guy, just a quick correction. Anyhow, funny how different handicappers see it different. I was able to only toss 1 of the 7 in the 5th with any confidence. Aside from #4 Blooming Hannah in the 5th, I wouldn't be surprised who wins that race. The 6th on the other hand, I feel like #3 Vegas Bound just needs to be handled correctly by Maldonado, and she should be right there at the wire. I see the #6 and #9 with a reasonable shot in here, I'm interested to see how #1 and #4 do here, and I would love to lay #8 all day long. I'm wondering why Baze isn't on #5. Bejarano rode her first time for Palma, then chose a Belvoir over this one 22Nov, and now Baze moves on. I know jocks have to make decisions, but I get a little gun shy when they start dancing around a horse too much. Unfortunately for the P6 players, the tote may disclose some valuable info on the #5 that will be too late coming for their use.

BTW, the winner of the key race at Delmar that you mentioned, is the horse that Vegas Bound stretched to the limits in her last race. Golds Venice looks to be developing into a win type race filly.

Thanks for the correction there, just a bad typo :bang:

That's why I love this game, in that one person's feel for a race can be completely different than anothers. I have singled the :1: in Race 5 after the slight freshening and works down at San Luis Rey. With this field, I think the :1: gets a clear lead from the rail, runs a 22 flat split (especially after watching the second race as you mentioned) and keeps a little in the tank to hold off the :6: by a diminishing margin. If I'm wrong I'm wrong.

Best of luck Ultra!

[maliksealy210]

Based on return of investment, I decided to play a cheap ticket today. I may spread a lot more in the 6th and 7th in the P4.

:6:
:1:
:1:
:3: :4: :5: :8:
:4: :5: :11:
:9: :12:

[maliksealy210]

:6: :7:
:1: :2: :4: :7:
:1: :3: :7:
:4: :5: :8:
:1: :3: :4: :5: :11: :14:
:9:

$864


probably get knocked in 1st leg

Top two finishers. Not a bad start donttellme!

[ultracapper]

:6: :7:
:1: :2: :4: :7:
:1: :3: :7:
:4: :5: :8:
:1: :3: :4: :5: :11: :14:
:9:

$864


probably get knocked in 1st leg

Good job Negative Nelly

[ultracapper]

Race #6 scratch #4

That answers a lot of questions I had about that one. I couldn't see that small barn giving up on his money earner like that. That horse has been feeding his whole barn since the spring of 2013.

The vet did scratch her however. It would be a shame for this trainer if he was unable to get anything more out of her. She's always laid it down on the track.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Race #6 scratch #4

That answers a lot of questions I had about that one. I couldn't see that small barn giving up on his money earner like that. That horse has been feeding his whole barn since the spring of 2013.

The vet did scratch her however. It would be a shame for this trainer if he was unable to get anything more out of her. She's always laid it down on the track.




Did the vet scratch her because she didnt pass the pre race exam or did she start to colic and the vet scratch her or did they just tell the vet to scratch her and they will make up some excuse like she had a light fever?

[ultracapper]

4th time she's scratched since Thanksgiving. Whatever it is, she doesn't seem to be getting over it.

[Donttellmeshowme]

4th time she's scratched since Thanksgiving. Whatever it is, she doesn't seem to be getting over it.



when do they do pre race exams at Santa Anita? Morning correct? So why the late scratch?

[ultracapper]

Undoubtedly the trainer came wondering around to the vet's office and brought a bottle of "whine" with him.

[ultracapper]

If the betting represents what was played in the P6 pool, anything but the 1 or 7 is going to break some tickets up. I still think this race is a scramble. Either one of those 2 could win, but the overlays in the win pool are getting attractive.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Im out

[Donttellmeshowme]

Hit 4/6

[ultracapper]

The one that knocked you out was brutal. Between horses, get's his nose out there. Ouch.