Poor Morning Line Favorites [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Aner

01-01-2016, 10:58 AM

Poor Morning Line Favorites

I doubt anyone can make a profit betting selected favorites to win. Using good selected favorites on top in vertical bets might be profitable.

Because I plan to bet ahead, I'm going to use morning line favorites for this test. My goal is to separate sprint races into good MLF's and poor MLF's.

My goal for good MLF is to win at least 38% of the time and lose less than 10% of my bankroll long term.

My goal for poor MLF is less than a 27% win frequency and more than 20% loss long term.

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Program #-----$win

01/01/16---Aqu----1----------1
01/01/16---Aqu----9---------10
01/01/16---SA-----3----------4
01/01/16---SA-----4----------7
01/01/16---SA-----5----------5
01/01/16---SA-----6----------8
01/01/16---SA-----7-----------9
01/01/16---SA-----8----------12

Aner

01-01-2016, 07:17 PM

Don't bet MLF on top

Date-----Track--- Race---Prg #-----$win

01/01/16---Aqu-----1-------1-------$4.30
01/01/16---Aqu-----9-------10------scratched
01/01/16---SA------3-------4--------out
01/01/16---SA------4-------7-------scratched
01/01/16---SA------5-------5-------$4.60
01/01/16---SA------6-------8-------out
01/01/16---SA------7-------9-------$7.40
01/01/16---SA------8-------12------place

Aner

01-01-2016, 07:51 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/02/16---Aqu-----3-----5
01/02/16---Aqu-----4-----6
01/02/16---Lrl-------2-----1
01/02/16---Lrl-------3-----2
01/02/16---Lrl-------5-----9
01/02/16---Lrl-------6-----1
01/02/16---Lrl-------9-----2
01/02/16---Tam-----2-----2
01/02/16---Tam-----4-----8
01/02/16---Tam-----6-----3
01/02/16---Tam-----9-----5
01/02/16---GP-------2-----10
01/02/16---GP-------4-----5
01/02/16---GP-------5-----3
01/02/16---GP-------7-----9
01/02/16---GP-------9-----2
01/02/16---GP------11----9
01/02/16---FG-------6------1
01/02/16---FG-------7------6
01/02/16---GG------1-------7
01/02/16---GG------2-------6
01/02/16---GG------4-------4
01/02/16---GG------5-------8
01/02/16---GG------7-------4
01/02/16---GG------8-------6
01/02/16---SA------4-------5
01/02/16---SA------6-------6

Aner

01-03-2016, 01:48 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/02/16---Aqu-----3-----5------------show
01/02/16---Aqu-----4-----6------------$4.10
01/02/16---Lrl-------2-----1------------out
01/02/16---Lrl-------3-----2------------$8.00
01/02/16---Lrl-------5-----9------------$5.60
01/02/16---Lrl-------6-----1------------$3.60
01/02/16---Lrl-------9-----2------------place
01/02/16---Tam-----2-----2------------out
01/02/16---Tam-----4-----8------------$4.80
01/02/16---Tam-----6-----3------------show
01/02/16---Tam-----9-----5------------out
01/02/16---GP-------2-----10----------place
01/02/16---GP-------4-----5-----------$3.80
01/02/16---GP-------5-----3-----------$5.20
01/02/16---GP-------7-----9-----------out
01/02/16---GP-------9-----2-----------$3.40
01/02/16---GP------11----9-----------place
01/02/16---FG-------6------1---------place
01/02/16---FG-------7------6---------out
01/02/16---GG------1-------7---------out
01/02/16---GG------2-------6---------show
01/02/16---GG------4-------4---------out
01/02/16---GG------5-------8---------out
01/02/16---GG------7-------4---------$6.40
01/02/16---GG------8-------6---------place
01/02/16---SA------4-------5---------place
01/02/16---SA------6-------6---------out

Recap for the year:

Hit rate-----12/33 = 36%

Return = -$4.80/$66 = minus 7%

Aner

01-06-2016, 02:17 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #

01/06/16---Tam-----6-----5
01/06/16---GP-------7-----1
01/06/16---GP-------8-----1

Aner

01-07-2016, 11:57 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #

01/07/16---GP-------1-----1
01/07/16---GP-------2-----5
01/07/16---GP-------4-----1
01/07/16---GP-------5-----2
01/07/16---GP-------9-----7

Aner

01-07-2016, 04:58 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #----$ back

01/07/16---GP-------1-----1----------out
01/07/16---GP-------2-----5---------$5.20
01/07/16---GP-------4-----1---------$5.00
01/07/16---GP-------5-----2----------show
01/07/16---GP-------9-----7----------place

Aner

01-08-2016, 10:04 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #

01/08/16---Lrl-------1--------4
01/08/16---Lrl-------4--------1
01/08/16---Lrl-------5--------3
01/08/16---Lrl-------7--------8
01/08/16---Lrl-------9--------6

Aner

01-08-2016, 04:33 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$ back

01/08/16---Lrl-------1--------4---------show
01/08/16---Lrl-------4--------1---------out
01/08/16---Lrl-------5--------3---------$3.80
01/08/16---Lrl-------7--------8---------place
01/08/16---Lrl-------9--------6---------$7.40

Aner

01-09-2016, 11:21 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/09/16---Aqu-----2--------2
01/09/16---Aqu-----4--------9
01/09/16---Aqu-----6--------1
01/09/16---Aqu-----7--------9
01/09/16---Aqu-----8--------9

01/09/16---Lrl-------1--------5
01/09/16---Lrl-------2--------4
01/09/16---Lrl-------4--------8
01/09/16---Lrl-------6--------8
01/09/16---Lrl-------7--------9
01/09/16---Lrl-------8--------8

01/09/16---Tam-----4--------4
01/09/16---Tam-----6--------5
01/09/16---Tam-----9--------2
01/09/16---Tam-----10-----10

01/09/16---SA-------4--------3
01/09/16---SA-------9--------4

Aner

01-11-2016, 11:00 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/09/16---Aqu-----2--------2-----------show
01/09/16---Aqu-----4--------9-----------scratched
01/09/16---Aqu-----6--------1-----------out
01/09/16---Aqu-----7--------9-----------$5.70
01/09/16---Aqu-----8--------9-----------$8.40

01/09/16---Lrl-------1--------5-----------$10.20
01/09/16---Lrl-------2--------4------------show
01/09/16---Lrl-------4--------8------------out
01/09/16---Lrl-------6--------8------------$4.20
01/09/16---Lrl-------7--------9------------out
01/09/16---Lrl-------8--------8------------$3.80

01/09/16---Tam-----4--------4------------$3.80
01/09/16---Tam-----6--------5-------------place
01/09/16---Tam-----9--------2-------------place
01/09/16---Tam-----10-----10------------$6.40

01/09/16---SA-------4--------3-------------out
01/09/16---SA-------9--------4-------------out

Recap:

Hit Rate – 25/62 = 40% frequency
Return -- $133.30/$124 = plus $9.30 (8% gain)

Aner

01-13-2016, 11:00 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #

01/13/16---Tam-------1-----3
01/13/16---Tam-------2-----2
01/13/16---Tam-------6-----4
01/13/16---GP---------6-----1

ultracapper

01-13-2016, 01:23 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/09/16---Aqu-----2--------2-----------show
01/09/16---Aqu-----4--------9-----------scratched
01/09/16---Aqu-----6--------1-----------out
01/09/16---Aqu-----7--------9-----------$5.70
01/09/16---Aqu-----8--------9-----------$8.40

01/09/16---Lrl-------1--------5-----------$10.20
01/09/16---Lrl-------2--------4------------show
01/09/16---Lrl-------4--------8------------out
01/09/16---Lrl-------6--------8------------$4.20
01/09/16---Lrl-------7--------9------------out
01/09/16---Lrl-------8--------8------------$3.80

01/09/16---Tam-----4--------4------------$3.80
01/09/16---Tam-----6--------5-------------place
01/09/16---Tam-----9--------2-------------place
01/09/16---Tam-----10-----10------------$6.40

01/09/16---SA-------4--------3-------------out
01/09/16---SA-------9--------4-------------out

Recap:

Hit Rate – 25/62 = 40% frequency
Return -- $133.30/$124 = plus $9.30 (8% gain)

Yes, the two hilighted horses above did win, but many believed as you did that they were poor ML favs as they got away a tad on the board.

Aner

01-13-2016, 05:14 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg #-----$win

01/13/16---Tam-------1-----3----------out
01/13/16---Tam-------2-----2----------$3.00
01/13/16---Tam-------6-----4----------$7.40
01/13/16---GP---------6-----1----------out

This is a frustrating game. The ML bets I claim are poor are making money and coming in at a high rate, while the ML bets I favor are sucking wind. I still think it will turn around soon.

Aner

01-15-2016, 03:21 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

01/15/16---SA2-----#2
01/15/16---SA6-----#7
01/15/16---SA8-----#3

Aner

01-15-2016, 07:42 PM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

01/15/16---SA2-----#2--------show
01/15/16---SA6-----#7--------show
01/15/16---SA8-----#3--------out

Aner

01-16-2016, 09:17 AM

Poor ML (Don't bet on top)

01/16/16---Aqu 4----#8
01/16/16---Aqu 6----#12
01/16/16---Aqu 8----#9
01/16/16---Aqu 9----#9

01/16/16---Lrl 2----#2
01/16/16---Lrl 5----#6

01/16/16---Tam 1----#2
01/16/16---Tam 2----#4
01/16/16---Tam 3----#7
01/16/16---Tam 8----#12
01/16/16---Tam 10---#1

01/16/16---GP 2----#10
01/16/16---GP 7----#5
01/16/16---GP 9----#5

01/16/16---OP 5----#10
01/16/16---OP 9----#4

01/16/16---FG 4----#3

01/16/16---SA 4----#5
01/16/16---SA 5----#10
01/16/16---SA 8----#1
01/16/16---SA 9----#11