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Aner
01-01-2016, 10:56 AM
Morning Line Favorites

I doubt anyone can make a profit betting selected favorites to win. However,using good selected favorites on top in vertical bets might be profitable.

Because I plan to bet ahead, I'm going to use morning line favorites for this test. My goal is to separate sprint races into good MLF's and poor MLF's.

My goal for good MLF is to win at least 38% of the time and lose less than 10% of my bankroll long term.

My goal for poor MLF is less than a 27% win frequency and more than 20% loss long term.


Good ML( Bet on top)



Date-----Track-----Race-----Program #-----$win

01/01/16---Aqu-----2----------6
01/01/16---Aqu-----3----------6
01/01/16---Aqu-----8----------7
mannyberrios
01-01-2016, 11:28 AM
Good luck with that
Aner
01-01-2016, 04:29 PM
Bet MLF on top



Date Track Race Program # $win


01/01/16 Aqu 2 6 scratched
01/01/16 Aqu 3 6 $2.60
01/01/16 Aqu 8 7 $5.40
Aner
01-01-2016, 07:32 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)



Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#



01/02/16---Aqu-----1-----2
01/02/16---Aqu-----5-----7
01/02/16---Lrl------4-----3
01/02/16---Tam----1-----7
01/02/16---Tam----7-----4
01/02/16---GP------3-----7
01/02/16---FG------5-----5
01/02/16---FG------9-----11
01/02/16---SA------3-----7
01/02/16---SA------7------11
Aner
01-03-2016, 01:56 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)



Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#------$ win



01/02/16---Aqu-----1-----2------------$3.50
01/02/16---Aqu-----5-----7------------show
01/02/16---Lrl------4-----3-------------$6.60
01/02/16---Tam----1-----7-------------place
01/02/16---Tam----7-----4-------------$8.20
01/02/16---GP------3-----7-------------show
01/02/16---FG------5-----5-------------out
01/02/16---FG------9-----11-----------out
01/02/16---SA------3-----7------------show
01/02/16---SA------7------11----------out


Recap for the year:

Hit rate-----5/12 = 42%

Return = $2.30/$24 = + 9%
mannyberrios
01-03-2016, 11:53 AM
Not bad at all
Aner
01-06-2016, 02:12 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#

01/06/16---GP------6-----9
01/06/16---GP------10---11
01/06/16---Tam----5-----8
01/02/16---Tam----7-----6
01/02/16---Tam----9-----1
Aner
01-06-2016, 05:32 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#--------$ back

01/06/16---GP------6-----9---------------$3.60
01/06/16---GP------10---11--------------out
01/06/16---Tam----5-----8---------------place
01/02/16---Tam----7-----6---------------show
01/02/16---Tam----9-----1---------------$10.40
Aner
01-07-2016, 11:52 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#

01/07/16---GP-------3-------4
01/07/16---GP-------6-------4
Aner
01-07-2016, 05:01 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#-------$ back

01/07/16---GP-------3-------4-----------$3.00
01/07/16---GP-------6-------4-----------$2.40
paddy79
01-07-2016, 05:21 PM
good work aner, keep itup
Aner
01-08-2016, 09:58 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#

01/08/16---Lrl--------3--------2
01/08/16---Lrl--------6--------3
Aner
01-08-2016, 04:35 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#-------$ back

01/08/16---Lrl--------3--------2----------place
01/08/16---Lrl--------6--------3----------out
Aner
01-09-2016, 11:23 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#------$ win

01/09/16---Aqu-----3-------5
01/09/16---Aqu-----5-------2

01/09/16---Lrl------5--------6
01/09/18---Lrl------9--------6

01/09/16---Tam----1--------5
01/09/16---Tam----2--------2
01/09/16---Tam----3--------2
01/09/16---Tam----8--------9

01/09/16---FG------1--------1
01/09/16---FG------2--------1
01/09/16---FG------4--------4
01/09/16---FG------5--------1
01/09/16---FG------9--------8
01/09/16---FG------10------9

01/09/16---SA------2--------5
01/09/16---SA------3--------5
Aner
01-11-2016, 10:50 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date-----Track-----Race-----Prg#------$ win

01/09/16---Aqu-----3-------5------------$2.80
01/09/16---Aqu-----5-------2------------out

01/09/16---Lrl------5--------6------------$10.20
01/09/18---Lrl------9--------6------------place

01/09/16---Tam----1--------5-------------out
01/09/16---Tam----2--------2-------------out
01/09/16---Tam----3--------2-------------place
01/09/16---Tam----8--------9-------------place

01/09/16---FG------1--------1-----------out
01/09/16---FG------2--------1-----------$5.60
01/09/16---FG------4--------4-----------place
01/09/16---FG------5--------1-----------out
01/09/16---FG------9--------8-----------$3.80
01/09/16---FG------10------9------------place

01/09/16---SA------2--------5------------out
01/09/16---SA------3--------5------------out

Recap:

Hit Rate -- 13/37 = 35% frequency
Return -- $68.10/$74 = minus 5.90 (%8 loss)
Aner
01-13-2016, 11:06 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date--------Track-----Race-----Prg#


01/13/16---Tam--------4--------6
01/13/16---Tam--------8--------7
01/13/16---GP----------1--------7
01/13/16---GP----------5--------7
01/13/16---GP----------8--------5
Aner
01-13-2016, 05:06 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

Date--------Track-----Race-----Prg#----$win


01/13/16---Tam--------4--------6--------show
01/13/16---Tam--------8--------7--------$2.80
01/13/16---GP----------1--------7--------$9.20
01/13/16---GP----------5--------7--------place
01/13/16---GP----------8--------5--------show
Aner
01-15-2016, 03:25 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

01/15/16---SA3-----#7
01/15/16---SA7-----#10
Aner
01-15-2016, 07:44 PM
Good ML( Bet on top)

01/15/16---SA3-----#7--------------$5.00
01/15/16---SA7-----#10-------------out
Aner
01-16-2016, 09:08 AM
Good ML( Bet on top)

01/16/16---Aqu 1----#7
01/16/16---Aqu 2----#3
01/16/16---Aqu 5----#10

01/16/16---Lrl 1----#6
01/16/16---Lrl 3----#6
01/16/16---Lrl 4----#1
01/16/16---Lrl 6 ---#3
01/16/16---Lrl 8----#6

01/16/16---GP 4----#5
01/16/16---GP 6----#8
01/16/16---GP 12---#6

01/16/16---OP 1----#9
01/16/16---OP 2----#7
01/16/16---OP 4----#8

01/16/16---FG 1----#2
01/16/16---FG 3----#7

01/16/16---SA 2----#8