best longshot at gulfstream on 12-30

[djm1959]

im making a bet with a family member and we each can pick 2 horses all day at gulfstream wednesday whoever makes most of the two bets (winonly) wins a fancy dinner for 4..... i want to win but i cant lock in on the right horses at good odds....if you have an idea let me know the race and name--- id be grateful friends :bang: :bang:

if they lose its place price that wins,,, if we both lose both bets we play a 3rd horse and so on .... but i trust the people here to get me the prize


thanks for any help

don

[zico20]

im making a bet with a family member and we each can pick 2 horses all day at gulfstream wednesday whoever makes most of the two bets (winonly) wins a fancy dinner for 4..... i want to win but i cant lock in on the right horses at good odds....if you have an idea let me know the race and name--- id be grateful friends :bang: :bang:

if they lose its place price that wins,,, if we both lose both bets we play a 3rd horse and so on .... but i trust the people here to get me the prize


thanks for any help

don

To me it would make more sense for you to pick two winners irregardless of the price and hope he picks two horses that don't win. Better to win the bet picking a 1-5 shot, if there is one, than to hope you get lucky hitting one or two long shots. Think about this. How would you like to lose going for a long shot and he wins the bet when a 1-5 wins easy. Tough way to pay for an expensive dinner when the sure thing wins and you don't have it.

[Ocala Mike]

What the above poster said, but if you are dead set on a longshot, try second time starter PAPA PIG, # :5: in the 7th race.

[Winger]

im making a bet with a family member and we each can pick 2 horses all day at gulfstream wednesday whoever makes most of the two bets (winonly) wins a fancy dinner for 4..... i want to win but i cant lock in on the right horses at good odds....if you have an idea let me know the race and name--- id be grateful friends :bang: :bang:

if they lose its place price that wins,,, if we both lose both bets we play a 3rd horse and so on .... but i trust the people here to get me the prize


thanks for any help

don


I'm betting General Sham'Mah with a 30/1 Morning Line. He's the :2: horse in the 8th.

[NorCalGreg]

im making a bet with a family member and we each can pick 2 horses all day at gulfstream wednesday whoever makes most of the two bets (winonly) wins a fancy dinner for 4..... i want to win but i cant lock in on the right horses at good odds....if you have an idea let me know the race and name--- id be grateful friends :bang: :bang:

if they lose its place price that wins,,, if we both lose both bets we play a 3rd horse and so on .... but i trust the people here to get me the prize


thanks for any help

don


Let me throw my hat into the ring, Don. (As competetive as we are here--thought you would be flooded with picks-possibly a major debate & flame war going on by now)

I've had some luck with this spot play, maybe it'll work at Gulfstream--here are the two plays:

RACE 6 :1: SHAPE OF MY HEART 20-1

RACE 9 :2: SIMON BAR SINISTER 12-1

*The play is 1st call/stretch call/fin call/down in class/did not win last/4-1+

good luck, Don

bon appetit'

-NCG☮

[arw629]

I thought there were lots of interesting long shots on the card...i feel that the early pick 4 could pay huge and I wish I had the pockets to spread deep but I will take a stab on 54 dollar play for 50 cents

Race 2---3,8,12
Race 3---1,2,6,7,9,10
Race 4---2,3
Race 5---1,3,12

[arw629]

As far as your bet...I think the third race has pace meltdown written all over it and I think the 6 Miss Niagara could be the only one left running when the smoke clears...that being said Sano also sends out first timer Jaky Rock and puts Zayas on board ...maybe this is the better of the Sano runners?

[arw629]

I also think the 9th is a great chance to bring home a long shot ...13 Bold Thunder should take a lot of money and has a class edge on the field but post 13 is a killer going 5 furlongs and the trainer doesn't have the best numbers off the bench ...this horse cost me the pick 5 on Preakness eve last yr as it was one of 2 singles for me and I can't believe Ben's Cat got uo but whatever I had to get that out there ....i think number 6 Shadow Rock who goes back to the Dickey barn will be rolling late in a race that could bottom out...this horse has the same pattern as last yr going from Morse to Dickey and that resulted in a win first time Dickey last yr so there is a lot to like there ....good luck!

[djm1959]

thanks guys,,, no horses under 10-1 ML are allowed ,, thats why im lookin for price horse,,,,

ill let ya know if i win

don

[WP1981]

These are the nags I have already bet on this morning. None under 10-1. Feast or famine for me at GP this meet. Hope to feast today.

1.4
2.8
3.3
4.4
5.7
6.12
7.8
8.6
9.3
10.5

[ReplayRandall]

thanks guys,,, no horses under 10-1 ML are allowed ,, thats why im lookin for price horse,,,,

ill let ya know if i win

don
Look at these 3 plays and decide for yourself:

Race#4- :6: She Takes Heart (KY) 12-1 P Lopez

Race#7- :4: Soyouthinkuraromeo (FL) 15-1 J C Leyva

Race#8- :6: Blame It On Tekela (KY) 15-1 J M Rios

[johnhannibalsmith]

When in doubt I always find it easy to justify a maiden for such a purpose. I'd go with Race 2 :5: Ronto's Lilly (20-1).

I don't see this two-year-old turf maiden mile being a race that is looked back upon as a productive race. In fact, it looks kind of bad. Bad in the sense that probably almost everyone in the race will almost certainly win sooner or later, but probably none will win again under allowance conditions.

So for starters, the race is doubly easy for me to use now that I've decided that this is the sort of maiden race that I'd seek out for sure. What I like about the horse is pretty straightforward:

1) Class dropping maiden. You don't get to say that all that often when looking at a maiden allowance, but this one has been facing winners in a pair of minor stakes at Calder/Gulf West whatever. She made her third start last time in a two-turn debut and ran another solid race to finish sixth beaten just a few lengths.

2) Gonna be a nice price. She isn't a sexy maiden. She probably isn't even a good maiden. She doesn't really need to be. everything just sort of needs to come together here in a peak effort against what seems a mediocre field.

3) What really turns me on to her is that she enters this race off what looks to be an aberrant fast 5/8 since that last race and she should be fine with the turf. She isn't fast but isn't a plodder and the pace in this spot should be strong, but should that fall apart, her chances do not on that merit alone. It just seems from the outside like that moment where a bunch of plus marks show up all at once and the sum of these pluses might just work out to a lot more than those individual plus signs as individual selling points.

All these things sort of conspire to lead me to believe that she'll be worth a few bucks. This is granted that she's more likely than not to just plain suck and maybe you can find one that isn't quite a reach so you don't blow a shot, but for whatever reason these are the ones that seem to connect just often enough to keep me chasing.

[Nitro]

thanks guys,,, no horses under 10-1 ML are allowed ,, thats why im lookin for price horse,,,,

ill let ya know if i win

don

Check out these M/L long shots (listed before scratches)

R# 2 - #9 (10/1) & #12 (12/1)

R# 4 - #1 (15/1) & #6 (12/1)

R# 5 - #6 (12/1) & #13 (15/1)

R# 6 - #4 (10/1)

R# 8 - #11 (12/1) & #13 (10/1)

R# 9 - #2 (12/1) & #12 (15/1)

R# 10 - #11 (12/1)

GL

[azeri98]

:5: nice call on Rontos lilly

[ReplayRandall]

When in doubt I always find it easy to justify a maiden for such a purpose. I'd go with Race 2 :5: Ronto's Lilly (20-1).
Today's "Handicapping Genius Award" goes to----->Mr. Johnhannibalsmith

GP Race#2- :5: Ronto's Lilly- 1st- $60.00-27.00-15.00

[ultracapper]

When in doubt I always find it easy to justify a maiden for such a purpose. I'd go with Race 2 :5: Ronto's Lilly (20-1).

I don't see this two-year-old turf maiden mile being a race that is looked back upon as a productive race. In fact, it looks kind of bad. Bad in the sense that probably almost everyone in the race will almost certainly win sooner or later, but probably none will win again under allowance conditions.

So for starters, the race is doubly easy for me to use now that I've decided that this is the sort of maiden race that I'd seek out for sure. What I like about the horse is pretty straightforward:

1) Class dropping maiden. You don't get to say that all that often when looking at a maiden allowance, but this one has been facing winners in a pair of minor stakes at Calder/Gulf West whatever. She made her third start last time in a two-turn debut and ran another solid race to finish sixth beaten just a few lengths.

2) Gonna be a nice price. She isn't a sexy maiden. She probably isn't even a good maiden. She doesn't really need to be. everything just sort of needs to come together here in a peak effort against what seems a mediocre field.

3) What really turns me on to her is that she enters this race off what looks to be an aberrant fast 5/8 since that last race and she should be fine with the turf. She isn't fast but isn't a plodder and the pace in this spot should be strong, but should that fall apart, her chances do not on that merit alone. It just seems from the outside like that moment where a bunch of plus marks show up all at once and the sum of these pluses might just work out to a lot more than those individual plus signs as individual selling points.

All these things sort of conspire to lead me to believe that she'll be worth a few bucks. This is granted that she's more likely than not to just plain suck and maybe you can find one that isn't quite a reach so you don't blow a shot, but for whatever reason these are the ones that seem to connect just often enough to keep me chasing.

Damn, party on Garth!!!

[mistergee]

I'm betting General Sham'Mah with a 30/1 Morning Line. He's the :2: horse in the 8th.
80 to 1 runs third, thats some genius stuff

[BCOURTNEY]

Race 9 - :9: Keepin It Zeal

[BCOURTNEY]

Race 10 - :3: Forever Lily

[Mr. Chubby]

....i think number 6 Shadow Rock who goes back to the Dickey barn will be rolling late in a race that could bottom out...this horse has the same pattern as last yr going from Morse to Dickey and that resulted in a win first time Dickey last yr so there is a lot to like there ....good luck!

:ThmbUp:
Spot on analysis! Well done!!!

[Nitro]

Check out these M/L long shots (listed before scratches)

R# 2 - #9 (10/1) & #12 (12/1)

R# 4 - #1 (15/1) & #6 (12/1)

R# 5 - #6 (12/1) & #13 (15/1)

R# 6 - #4 (10/1)

R# 8 - #11 (12/1) & #13 (10/1)

R# 9 - #2 (12/1) & #12 (15/1)

R# 10 - #11 (12/1)

GL
I thought I might try Teach's ESP "Numbers" method for these picks.

Results:

R# 2 - #9 (10/1) & #12 (12/1) - Both Out

R# 4 - #1 (15/1) & #6 (12/1) - #1 $21.40 PLC / $10.40 SHO & #6 out

R# 5 - #6 (12/1) & #13 (15/1) - #6 - 4th & #13 Out

R# 6 - #4 (10/1) - Out

R# 8 - #11 (12/1) - #13 (10/1) - #13 $26.40 WIN / $10.80 PLC / $7.60 SHO & #11 Out

R# 9 - #2 (12/1) & #12 (15/1) - Both Out

R# 10 - #11 (12/1) - Out

Happy New Year!

[Winger]

80 to 1 runs third, thats some genius stuff

He was closing well too. Too bad he didn't get there.

[arw629]

:ThmbUp:
Spot on analysis! Well done!!!

Thanks! I had the winner in the 3rd as well but it got disqualified ....such a shame too bc it was much the best and although the foul occurred I do not think it altered the finish ...i thought it was a bad take down

[Appy]

I'm still fuming about R3. BAD DQ of my 6 horse who won the race at 18-1, but was placed 3rd.

That GPX card today had a lot more promise than it realized, thanks in part to one Mr Castellano.

[HuggingTheRail]

When in doubt I always find it easy to justify a maiden for such a purpose. I'd go with Race 2 :5: Ronto's Lilly (20-1).

I don't see this two-year-old turf maiden mile being a race that is looked back upon as a productive race. In fact, it looks kind of bad. Bad in the sense that probably almost everyone in the race will almost certainly win sooner or later, but probably none will win again under allowance conditions.

So for starters, the race is doubly easy for me to use now that I've decided that this is the sort of maiden race that I'd seek out for sure. What I like about the horse is pretty straightforward:

1) Class dropping maiden. You don't get to say that all that often when looking at a maiden allowance, but this one has been facing winners in a pair of minor stakes at Calder/Gulf West whatever. She made her third start last time in a two-turn debut and ran another solid race to finish sixth beaten just a few lengths.

2) Gonna be a nice price. She isn't a sexy maiden. She probably isn't even a good maiden. She doesn't really need to be. everything just sort of needs to come together here in a peak effort against what seems a mediocre field.

3) What really turns me on to her is that she enters this race off what looks to be an aberrant fast 5/8 since that last race and she should be fine with the turf. She isn't fast but isn't a plodder and the pace in this spot should be strong, but should that fall apart, her chances do not on that merit alone. It just seems from the outside like that moment where a bunch of plus marks show up all at once and the sum of these pluses might just work out to a lot more than those individual plus signs as individual selling points.

All these things sort of conspire to lead me to believe that she'll be worth a few bucks. This is granted that she's more likely than not to just plain suck and maybe you can find one that isn't quite a reach so you don't blow a shot, but for whatever reason these are the ones that seem to connect just often enough to keep me chasing.

Nicely done... :ThmbUp:

[no breathalyzer]

When in doubt I always find it easy to justify a maiden for such a purpose. I'd go with Race 2 :5: Ronto's Lilly (20-1).

I don't see this two-year-old turf maiden mile being a race that is looked back upon as a productive race. In fact, it looks kind of bad. Bad in the sense that probably almost everyone in the race will almost certainly win sooner or later, but probably none will win again under allowance conditions.

So for starters, the race is doubly easy for me to use now that I've decided that this is the sort of maiden race that I'd seek out for sure. What I like about the horse is pretty straightforward:

1) Class dropping maiden. You don't get to say that all that often when looking at a maiden allowance, but this one has been facing winners in a pair of minor stakes at Calder/Gulf West whatever. She made her third start last time in a two-turn debut and ran another solid race to finish sixth beaten just a few lengths.

2) Gonna be a nice price. She isn't a sexy maiden. She probably isn't even a good maiden. She doesn't really need to be. everything just sort of needs to come together here in a peak effort against what seems a mediocre field.

3) What really turns me on to her is that she enters this race off what looks to be an aberrant fast 5/8 since that last race and she should be fine with the turf. She isn't fast but isn't a plodder and the pace in this spot should be strong, but should that fall apart, her chances do not on that merit alone. It just seems from the outside like that moment where a bunch of plus marks show up all at once and the sum of these pluses might just work out to a lot more than those individual plus signs as individual selling points.

All these things sort of conspire to lead me to believe that she'll be worth a few bucks. This is granted that she's more likely than not to just plain suck and maybe you can find one that isn't quite a reach so you don't blow a shot, but for whatever reason these are the ones that seem to connect just often enough to keep me chasing.


very sharp post.. congrats.. wish i seen this before the race went off

[djm1959]

and i lost because i didnt check here that day(work called) or that 60 buck horse would have been the differnce,,,


next time bahhhh

thanks
don