Aqueduct: December 30, 2015

[Teach]

Snow (first of the season) turns to sleet, freezing rain and plain rain here west of Boston. Raining in the "Big Apple" this morning. I'm handicapping tomorrow's card based on residual moisture on Aqueduct's inner.

I want to take this opportunity to wish everyone on the Pace Advantage forum: A Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year!

Race One:

:4: Fiery Cat. Moisture on racetrack from recent rains helpful. Forestry-bred. Yet, a “money-burner”. Beaten “fave” in last two: 3-to-2 and 7-to-5. Don’t expect much. In today's race, as a board-hitter: likely. As a winner, quite possibly, but far from a sure thing. No lead-pipe cinch. Only 2 wins in fourteen tries. Horse has failed to win recently at this level. Irad’s a plus. So too is Michelle Nevin (Is today her day?) Michelle’s good with second after claim.
Others: :1: , :5: , :2:

Race Two:

:3: Mia and Molly. Big class drop. Suspicious? Mostly on the turf with one second in her only main-track start, that did come on muddy track. Looks to go off as prohibitive favorite. Don’t expect much value. Frankly, doesn’t have lightning speed coming out of the gate in this sprint, yet should be close to pace. Giant’s Causeway breeding is as much, if not more turf, than wet track. Linda goes with “go-to” jock, Cornelio Velasquez. Linda Rice does very well when dropping 2+ classes.
Others: :1: , :6: , :4:

Race Three:

:1: Sky Commander. Wild Again…”beguiled again…”(Rodgers & Hart). You know what that means: wet-track proficiency. Add some Pulpit on the Sire’s side…Well, how do you say: relish an off-track? The veteran, Aaron Gryder, is in the irons. Must get off the rail and angle this gelding into the outside flow. Long Island’s Gary Contessa is having a solid meet. Contessa’s good with 2nd start w/trainer. Solid “bullet” indicates readiness off prolonged layoff. Finally, the turn-back to six panels should help.
Others: :6: , :4: , :3:

Race Four:

:10: Saratoga Sight. Eric Cancel (I can’t believe he still has “the bug”). Todd Pletcher. Tapit. Pulpit. Maria’s Mon. Moisture on track - a big plus. Cancel must break alertly from outside post to avoid being “hung out to dry” on first turn. As cited, pedigree says this colt should enjoy any moisture. Trainer Pletcher does very well with first route races and 2nd career races.
Others: :5: , :1: , :3:

Race Five:

:9: Sound of Freedom towers over this field - class wise. This Danzig-breed is dropping like the proverbial “lead balloon”. Should handle this field. No price. Little value. Should do well on a wet track. Relatively recent, decent work. Eddie Kenneally not having one of his better meets with a limited sample. Yet Eddie remains one of the top conditioners on the NYRA circuit; he does well with claiming races. Irad is in the irons. Nuff Said!
Others: :7: , :8: , :2:

Race Six:

:1: Aragonite draws inside in this MSW NY-State bred route. Bumped at start in only pari-mutuel start. Still finished a game third as a distinct longshot. I wouldn’t expect those odds. Double-A, Angel Arroyo, or as they say in WSOP lingo, “American Airlines” (Boy, did Joe McKeehan build up an insurmountable lead en route to the “gold bracelet”) is in the irons. Do I see City Zip and Carson City lineage. That spells wet-track potential. Recent-decent five-panel work. The very capable David Donk is this chestnut colt’s conditioner. Others: :4: , :5: , :2:

Race Seven:

:1: Brimstone broke his maiden by winning his last on a sloppy track earlier this month. If the Aqueduct main retains any moisture, this Speightstown-bred should be a player. By the way, this Munnings-bred did not disappoint as the even-money favorite in his last. This Forest Wildcat-bred (to paraphrase the late-great “Big Bopper”: “There’s a whole lotta wet-track pedigree goin’ on!). David Donk saddles. Recent-decent four-panel work. Manny Franco, the Puerto Rican Caballero, is in the irons. Others: :2: , :6: , :10:

Race Eight:

:8: Send It In is my choice in this OC route for New York State foaled. Manny Franco (a riding double?) is in the irons for trainer Todd Pletcher. Trainer Pletcher does particularly well with winners of their last race. This Paul Pompa, Jr.’s owned and bred gelding did, as cited, win his last, as the favorite, by an ever-lengthening six lengths. He did win out lifetime conditions in that one. This Boundary-bred should do very well with any moisture. A sharp four-panel “bullet” signal readiness. Others: :6: , :5: , :7:

Race Nine:

:6: Joey Cap. This Posse (Silver Deputy)-bred is my selection in the finale, a maiden-claiming sprint. This 2 year-old (soon to be 3) went off the chalk at Laurel three months ago and finished second (you may note that I’m eschewing, as least as my top pick, the horse that will likely take most of the action, #5; I think he’s “vulnerable”). The factor here is the solid wet-track pedigree and the services of Jose Ortiz. Michelle Nevin trains; she’s good with maiden-claiming races. Others: :5: , :7: , :3:

[LAP_520]

Teach -

Thank You for all your research work and write ups our the past year.

A Happy, Healthy, and Prosperous New Year to You and Yours also !


LAP_520
(Larry)

[Teach]

I'll be back tomorrow with any updates. Yet, until then, a story from the past.

"I Led Three Lives".

During the mid-1950s, when I lived in one of Boston’s inner-city neighborhoods, I could often be found in front of our family’s black-and-white Zenith TV. I must have watched dozens of shows each week: Ed Sullivan, "Uncle Miltie," (Milton Berle), "Your Show of Shows" with Sid Caesar and Imogene Coca, and a host of others. Yet one my favorites was called: "I Led Three Lives." The show was based on the true-life experiences of Herbert Philbrick, a New Hampshire native who worked for a Boston advertising firm. You see Philbrick was not only a businessman and father of six children, but he was also a man who had infiltrated the Communist Party; he served as an agent for the FBI. Well, as I look back at my life of over seven decades, I too have led “three lives”. I'm quite sure no one is interested in making a TV show about my “three lives” -- at least not in the foreseeable future.

Before I discuss my "three lives," I will say, for the most part, they have rarely became intertwined. Sociologists would say they existed in "logic-tight compartments". There were imaginary walls - barriers if you will – that were erected between each. In fact, I took great pains to keep it that way.

Let’s see, I’m a husband and a father (both my kids are adults now with children of their own). I’ve also been a high school history and social sciences teacher...and yes, I’ve been a degenerate gambler. But, where do I begin? Well, let’s begin with my teaching career. When I was a boy, I actually liked school. I know that may sound strange to some, but I enjoyed reading and learning about various subjects. After I graduated high school, I decided that I would become a teacher. Because history was my favorite subject, I became a history teacher. As I mentioned, I made a special effort not to let anyone know, especially my teaching colleagues, that I also liked to gamble.

Years ago (I’m retired now), I recall a conversation with an English teacher; her room was next to mine. The English teacher had just come back from a weekend in Atlantic City with her husband. She proceeded to tell me all about the slots and table games she had played. I recall she said she had stayed at the Claridge. In any event, I played the dunce. Like I know nuthin (little does she know that, at the time, I'd been gamblin' for close to fifty years, if you include penny-ante poker games).

The kids in school would sometimes ask me about my hobbies and interests. They’d say Mr. L (that’s what they called me), "What do you to do when you’re not teaching." I’d say, "I like to read." If I were being perfectly candid I would have said, "I like to read The Daily Racing Form, harness racing programs and racing publications." I’d tell them that as a history teacher, I liked to read about early Presidents and statesmen. I said that I particularly liked to collect pictures of some of my favorites: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, and even non-Presidents like Alexander Hamilton and Benjamin Franklin. I’d tell them that Ben Franklin was my favorite." Of course, I did this with tongue in cheek. I don’t recall anyone ever catching on.

As for gambling, I started in elementary school playing penny-ante poker down a friend’s cellar. Later, when I was in high school, I’d go to the harness races. I was initially a $2 bettor, but, with time, that escalated. I gambled in college. In fact, I almost blew my college tuition money. There was no harness racing action so I went to a dog track in Revere, MA called Wonderland Park. I was down over $150 (a lot of money in the early 1960s). I remember I put $20 on the nose of a dog called Cherry Toast. I remember it was a 3/8ths race. The dog broke second and collared the front runner in the stretch. She paid about $16 to win. I had bailed. Whew!

In the years that followed, I visited just about every thoroughbred and harness racing track on the East Coast. Some of which don’t exist anymore like Hinsdale, Roosevelt, Liberty Bell, and Brandywine. I was such a degenerate that one summer I did a three-track "trifecta." Sort of like a triathalon without the biking, swimming and running. In my case, a friend and I left my Long Island apartment and visited Belmont for their early races, then we headed across Staten Island for Freehold. We capped off the day by spending the evening at Brandywine in Delaware.

In recent years, I’ve also visited casinos. Several visits to Las Vegas; a trip to Atlantic City; Casino du Montreal; and the Caribbean. Remember the show "Paladin" (Richard Boone): "Have Gun Will Travel." My motto: "Have Credit Card, Will Gamble."

Yet, on one occasion, just about the time I was reaching retirement in the early years of the new millennium, I took a trip a Vegas with a buddy. We were staying downtown at “The Fitz”. Yet, we also visited Binion’s, Golden Nugget, California, Four Queens and the El Cortez, etc.

Well, when I get back to school, one of my students, a fellow named Steve, says, “I saw you in the El Cortez”. I must have turned fifteen shades of red. I remember saying that wasn’t me you saw but my evil twin-brother (I do have a brother, but he’s no twin. In fact, we bear some resemblance; yet you can easily tell us apart). In the end, I believe Steve “bought” the story. At least he never brought it up, again. I call that “a close shave”; yet, in fact, I wasn’t doing anything wrong. It’s just I didn’t want the kids to know about my “extra-curricular” activities.

Well, lastly, I’ve been married...hard to believe, for almost 47 years. My wife has been a saint to put up with me. She never realized what she was getting herself in for. I kept matters pretty much under wraps both when we were dating and when we were initially married. I also kept my gambling from my kids for many years. They would eventually learn when they were in high school that their Daddy likes to gamble. Until relatively recently, they’d say, "Mommie went shopping; Daddy went to the track. (I use an ADW, now).

Oh, by the way, thankfully, neither my wife nor my kids like to gamble. My wife’s idea of gambling is to watch an item in a department store to see if it gets marked down, and then get there (preferably when the doors open) to see if she can be the first one to buy it.

Yes, I truly have lived “three lives”. Yet, one of those "lives" has faded away. No, not the gambling. Heaven forbid. I did retire from teaching over ten years ago.

[Unicorn]

Good story Teach. Are all of these non fiction? I take it real life events. Thanks for the picks also. I have found some helpful.

[Teach]

Real stories, Unicorn. Only the names have been changed to protect the guilty. Happy New Year!

[SkunkApe]

Thanks for your selections, and the story.

Happy New Year to you, too.

[Teach]

Final comments before the first race. As I suspected, the Aqueduct inner is muddy. That should enhance :4: Fiery Cat's chances. There's just no value. About fifteen minutes before race time, this filly is 1/9. You have to have a bundle to bet this horse straight. I generally play supers or the tri. I'll give you my updated thought (it goes without saying, but I'll say it: "Everyone's a free agent"). I'm going to bet a super and put the :4: in the first and, just in case, in the second positions. I'm thinkin' the deuce might be vulnerable to finish second; she's been running sprints. She's now stretching out. Also, winless in three wet-track tries. I'm thinking of putting both the :1: and :5: close to the front in my supers. Good luck!

[Teach]

In Race Four, Saratoga Sight is the :9: horse. Inadvertently, I typed 10. I'm thinking of using my selection with a few other horses in super. I'm considering Sean Morris's selection here from his comments on NYRA's "Talking Horses". This is the way I've conditioned my super ticket: :9: , :5: , :3: , :2: with :9: , :5: , :3: , :2: with :5: :2: :3: with :1: :5: