Races With Multiple Early Types

[PressThePace]

Particularly in routes with lots of speed on board, I've always been a little too hasty in dismissing the early types, especially when a formidable presser/closer is in the field. As we all know, the chances of one of the early types to win is still very impressive.
I'm curious as to what others think about what it would take to feel confident that the pace will actually collapse in said race. Obviously, much has been written about early speed and pace, but just wondering what others think.

[EMD4ME]

Particularly in routes with lots of speed on board, I've always been a little too hasty in dismissing the early types, especially when a formidable presser/closer is in the field. As we all know, the chances of one of the early types to win is still very impressive.
I'm curious as to what others think about what it would take to feel confident that the pace will actually collapse in said race. Obviously, much has been written about early speed and pace, but just wondering what others think.

Best races to confidently throw out E1's or E2's are when they have exhibited that they will still lose, even if they are loose and comfortable on the lead. When there are multiple horses like that in the same race AND I like a stalker closer, I am not afraid of the speed horses UNLESS there is a SPEED BIAS.

Pace figures help a lot in the proper assessment of a speed horse's ability to carry speed. More importantly to me, detailed notes on how hard a horse was used from the gate and throughout the initial 1st half of the race is vital as well. It is also important to see WHO a horse dueled with (how talented is the other horse? How speedy? )

Simple reply but hope it helps.

[thaskalos]

Particularly in routes with lots of speed on board, I've always been a little too hasty in dismissing the early types, especially when a formidable presser/closer is in the field. As we all know, the chances of one of the early types to win is still very impressive.
I'm curious as to what others think about what it would take to feel confident that the pace will actually collapse in said race. Obviously, much has been written about early speed and pace, but just wondering what others think.

The routers are much more maneuverable than the sprinters...IMO.

When there is a lot of apparent early speed in a route race, I always assume that most of this early speed will be restrained early...and will be asked to mount a charge from a few lengths off the lead. With the added distance of the route, the jockeys are less inclined to get involved in a suicidal speed duel...as they sometimes do in the sprints. When handicapping routes, determining the severity of the early contention in the race is a much trickier proposition than handicapping the sprints.

[PressThePace]

The routers are much more maneuverable than the sprinters...IMO.

When there is a lot of apparent early speed in a route race, I always assume that most of this early speed will be restrained early...and will be asked to mount a charge from a few lengths off the lead. With the added distance of the route, the jockeys are less inclined to get involved in a suicidal speed duel...as they sometimes do in the sprints. When handicapping routes, determining the severity of the early contention in the race is a much trickier proposition than handicapping the sprints.

In retrospect, this makes perfect sense. I can really see this in fields with two need the lead types, particularly in classier races. With three or more, I'm probably opting for another horse, given value is present.

I concentrate most of my play at mid-level claiming contests. One thing that I see over and over again is the pace collapse when at least two cheaper speed ball types with one or more quality horses who possess early speed. It's almost a guarantee that a horse off the pace will pick up the pieces. In that case, I love to see an improving animal stepping up slightly in class.

[PressThePace]

Best races to confidently throw out E1's or E2's are when they have exhibited that they will still lose, even if they are loose and comfortable on the lead. When there are multiple horses like that in the same race AND I like a stalker closer, I am not afraid of the speed horses UNLESS there is a SPEED BIAS.

Pace figures help a lot in the proper assessment of a speed horse's ability to carry speed. More importantly to me, detailed notes on how hard a horse was used from the gate and throughout the initial 1st half of the race is vital as well. It is also important to see WHO a horse dueled with (how talented is the other horse? How speedy? )

Simple reply but hope it helps.

I agree with the visual interpretation. It's one aspect of my game that is lacking....

[raybo]

The first thing I do when I assess pace scenarios is to find out how each horse runs today's distance, or distances similar to today's. In other words, I don't assume that each horse that has been assigned an "E" running style will run as an "E" style at today's distance. Few horses run the same running style in every race they run.

Secondly, once I have assigned my own running style, at similar distances as today's, is the track fair to those types, or at least not unfair them. There are tracks that are tiring tracks, those tracks are not fair to horses that run out front, at any distance, especially when there are multiple early types in the race.

Thirdly, I look at the early velocities that the early types are capable of running, and compare them to one another. Some "E" types simply don't have the early speed to contest against other early types in the race. Those horses will either take back, or they will have no chance of finishing strong.

And, finally, the longer the distance and the higher the class, the more class and distance capability come into play, and the less importance running styles have.

In summary, an "E" horse may not be an "E" horse in today's race.

[classhandicapper]

Where other people expect fast paces and duels based on the PPs of the horses and complain when they don't occur, I expect the riders to have either reviewed the PPs or gotten instructions and behave logically. I don't expect them to be stupid and duel. I complain when they duel without it being essential.

Generally, I look for what I would call Pure Speed horses. These are horses that are always on the lead unless they get outrun by another Pure Speed type. If there are 3 horses like that and they are of similar class, the pace will usually be fast. Whether it collapses or not depends on the distance, how the track is playing, and whether one is just better than the others. With only 2, sometimes 1 is faster than the other or one gets bumped at the start etc... and the fast pace is less likely to develop.

If a few of the speeds show some degree of tractability, I expect them to not get crazy unless it's a large field and the race is loaded with speed.