weight changes

[jasperson]

I am misinterpreting the effect of weight shifts quite often. Sometimes I give to much credit or not enough credit to a weight shift. Take the 8th race at Aqu. Saturday. In their last race the 2 beat the 3 by a head. In this race the 3 was dropping 11 lbs and the 2 was coming back at the same weight. My oddsline program picked the 2 ,but I didn't compensate the program for weight shifts because I prefer to do that myself. I thought the weight shift was enough for the 3 to beat the 2 so I didn't bet the race. The 2 won by 5.5 lengths over the 2. I guess I should have played an exact box. I wish I knew why I was wrong. Maybe some of you pace handicappers have an explanation of what happened other than the 3 just wasn't up to his best effort.

[ultracapper]

What happened in the race that the 2 horse and the 3 were even weights? Maybe that outcome had nothing at all to do with weight. Maybe the 2 should have won that race by 6, and therefore spotting the 3 11lbs this time meant nothing.

[Stillriledup]

The 3 was toast, at least for yesterday, he looked funky in the warmups and wasnt bet like he was live (just my opinion). Weight matters, don't bail on looking at it just because of yesterday.

[therussmeister]

I believe the trip will always trump weight change. What trip did those two horses get when they were only seperated by a head? I believe that is far more important than weight.

[cj]

I believe the trip will always trump weight change. What trip did those two horses get when they were only seperated by a head? I believe that is far more important than weight.

Probably true, but trips had nothing to do with these results.