Aqueduct: Sunday, December 27

[Teach]

Race One:

:3: Blooper races on what I believe will be a wet surface, one that she should relish. Her last win - two races ago - came in this company at Belmont on a muddy track. This filly, on her Sire’s side, has impeccable wet-track credentials, Offlee Wild (Wild Again). That says Icecapade; a classy wet-track sire. Jose Ortiz – he probably caught the red-eye back from the West Coast - is in the irons for trainer Michelle Nevin. This 4 year-old has had some steady, yet nondescript morning works. All things considered, she should be “a contendah”. Others: :6: , :1: , :5:

Race Two:

:6: Alysaro faced better last time and finished third. This Storm Cat-bred (that pedigree says he should enjoy wet-track conditions) is now back in with the kind he can handle. A note of caution: this gelding has won only two races in twenty lifetime tries. Yet, he has hit the tote in more than half his pari-mutuel starts. The up-and-coming apprentice, Harry Hernandez, is in the irons for trainer David Jacobson. Jacobson has a 25% rating with horses making their second start of a claim. Others: :5: , :7: , :8:

Race Three:

:8: Kibble starts outside in this route; yet, this A.P. Indy-bred filly does retain the services of the most capable Irad Ortiz, Jr. This filly’s breeding says a lot about her ability to handle a wet track and her ability to handle eight panels. This Kingmambo-bred did not disappoint in her last as the 7-to-5 favorite in a 50k maiden-claimer. She does move up to face winners, but she should handle that task. A recent solid “bullet” work signals readiness. One note of caution: this filly has been away from the races for over one year. Tony Dutrow – he does well with horses that have been on extended “vacations” – is the filly’s conditioner. Others: :5: , :4: , :3:

Race Four:

:8: Kalabaka is my medium-longshot try in the MSW sprint. This Tapit-bred filly has wet-track pedigree that should serve her well against this field. Aaron Gryder (he’s picked it up, lately) is in the irons for trainer Rick Violette, Jr. This filly had a “bullet” work about a week ago to signal her readiness. The filly did get beat by weaker in her last as a 2-1 shot, but that was on a dry track. I believe she moves up here on a presumed wet Aqueduct oval. Finally the filly has hit the tote in half her starts. Is today the day she “catches the bouquet”? Others: :9: , :6: , :4:

Race Five:

:3: Eloweasel is another horse who has wet-track breeding written all over her. Carson City, City Zip, and A.P. Indy are all quality wet-track sires. The aforementioned Aaron Gryder is starting to find a comfort zone in the NYRA jockey colony. He’s had his share of “live” horses and the experienced Gryder is making the most of it. This filly is making the switch from turf to dirt. I believe, based on her pedigree, that she's versatile enough to handle the main, especially a wet-surface main. Pat Kelly is the filly’s conditioner. Others: :2: , :4: , :8:

Race Six:

:2: Narvaez is my choice in this claiming sprint. The Holy Bull-bred grey gelding should benefit from the wet-track conditions. He has faced better. He was a closing third in his last, a race that featured 32k claiming company. Steve Klesaris owns and trains this grandson of Unbridled. Kleasaris has been red-hot as of late. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. This gelding has hit the tote in his last five. Jockey Ortiz will need to get the gelding in the game early to be certain he doesn’t run out of real estate. Others: :8: , :7: , :5:

Race Seven:

:4: Sky Fortune is my longshot try in this New York State-bred allowance sprint. I must admit, “I’m forever chasing rainbows…” Admittedly, on paper, this Pulpit-bred chestnut filly doesn’t exactly come out and say, “I’m your horse”. This filly has performed very well upstate at Finger Lakes. She’s won five out of ten races. But those races were at Finger Lakes, not one of the NYRA tracks. Can she make the jump? At Aqueduct and Belmont she hasn’t exactly distinguished herself; yet two of those races were MSWs. There is solid wet-track pedigree, particularly on the Sire’s side. Jeremiah Englehart is still looking to pick things up at “The Big A”. Could this filly be the one that gives him a lift? Jockey Jaime Rodriguez has not hit the tote in fifteen races; I must admit that’s not very comforting. Yet, having said all this, I believe this filly has a chance. Others: :10: , :12: , :8:

Race Eight:

I’m going outside in this 6-panels New York State Stallion Series with :13: Dr. Shane. This Storm Cat-bred colt should benefit from his outside starting post. There is significant wet-track pedigree. Manny Franco reprises the ride for trainer Nick Esler. Trainer Esler doesn’t condition many horses; yet he does well with those under his tutelage. Esler does particularly well with sprints. A recent solid morning work signals readiness. Others: :4: , :11: , :7:

Race Nine:

In the finale, I’m going with Maria Remedio’s horse, a 2 year-old filly, :11: Quick Hit Fever. This filly was a game second in her only start. Any slight improvement… The filly does have enough wet-track pedigree to prevail amongst these should the Aqueduct surface retain its moisture. The filly’s trainer, Dan Velazquez, is one for three with 2 year-olds. A recent four-panel work at Prx was solid. This filly is capable of moving forward off her last effort. Others: :5: , :8: , :7:

[Teach]

"The Rhythm Method"

As I sit here in my none-too-overly-ostentatious computer-room west of Boston waiting for the Aqueduct scratches, and later, the appearance of Messrs. Serling and Aragona on “Talking Horses,” my mind wonders back to an earlier time and day. It’s the mid-1990s, Connecticut’s Foxwoods Casino. I call my story: “The Rhythm Method”.

Abstinence. Condoms. The pill. IUDs. The Patch. Diaphragms. Coitus Interruptus. And then there's --- "The Rhythm Method." Well, I freely admit it. I use "the Rhythm Method." No, not the birth-control "rhythm method" (put away your ovulation thermometer), but the dice-setting rhythm-method.

For years, when I shot craps, I was what most “crapsters” would call: a random roller. A "Chicken Feeder." A "Spreader" "Sowee!" Pick up the acryllic cubes and toss them down the layout ("Make sure you hit the back wall!"). Well, one day, I was shooting craps at Mohegan Sun (Foxwoods’ “neighbor” in southeastern CT). I was shooting craps --- and not doing very well. Just then, there's this new shooter on the outer hook, He immediately catches my attention; he's "arranging" the dice (not just picking them up and throwing them). He's sets the dice and then, with a claw-like grip, he daintily tosses "the bones" down the length of the table. They gently land at the other end (barely "kissing" the wall). A "natural." Well, this guy (I later learned his name was Mike) held the cubes for 31 straight rolls! In craps, that's an eternity! Betting on his tosses, I quickly became "fat and healthy." Well, maybe “fat”.

After Mike “sevened-out,” I asked him if he'd share some of his knowledge. When we sat down, he said, "Walt (I had introduced myself), I used to be just like you. I'd just pick'em up and toss'em. I'd hope for the best. But," he continued, "I had an engineering background. I had taken several courses in physics. Now, I realize," he continued, "this is not an exact science. It ain't the Pythagorean Theorem or Newton's Second Law of Gravity," he continued. Yet," he went on to say, "I always felt that I could somehow influence dice outcomes by the way I set and threw the dice. Let's look at it this way," he added. "If you play the pass line or don't pass in craps, the House advantage is minimal. And, if you take the maximum free odds, that further reduces the House edge. So, if you can further improve your chances by setting the dice in a manner you believe will give you an even added advantage --- it's just about an even game. In fact, you, the shooter, may actually have an edge on the House. Yes! An advantage!"

Well, Mike went on to say that he practiced, practiced and practiced at home. He even built a casino-like practice table. He mentioned he kept all kinds of records. He went on to say that he's ahead of the game.

When I returned home, I tried some of the things that Mike had talked about. Only, I practiced in a spare room against a wall. I began to notice that there was something to what Mike had discussed. But, when would I get the chance to try it out?

Well, a couple weeks later, my friend “Bucko” and I visited Foxwoods. We immediately headed for the craps tables. Eventually, I got the dice. I'm on the hook as my dice-shooting mentor, Mike, had been at Mohegan Sun. As I'm beginning to shoot, I notice out of the corner of my eye this broad-shouldered fire-plug of a guy (I later learned his name was Al)) standing to the right of the stick at SR1. I also notice he's betting against me; he's betting the DP ("Don't Pass") and DC (Don't Come").

Well, I open up like a literal "house on fire." I was like a rapid-fire Gatling Gun. . It was: pass. pass. pass. pass. Al (I'll call him "Big Al") quickly changed from being "a wrong bettor" to "a right". And, I might add, he was beginning to bet a bunch of "Boston Blackies" ($100 chips). I'm making decent money for my own account, but the well-healed "Big Al's" making a bundle.

Finally, after a lengthy and profitable "hand," I did seven-out. "Big Al" comes over and introduces himself. He tells me he's from Newton, MA (Boston suburb. One of the first things he says to me is, "You use 'the rhythm method.'" Always the wise-guy (not that kind of “wise-guy”) I say, "No, I use condoms." He laughed. He said, "No, the way you set and shoot the dice," he continued. I said, "Yeah, I've been working on it."

Well, "Big Al" invites “Bucko” and me to join him at Foxwoods' lavish luncheon buffet (not the wait-in-line-for-an-hour one, but a private buffet for "high rollers"). "My treat," he says. While we're enjoying a scrumptious lunch, "Big Al's" pumpin' me for more information on my craps-shooting technique. He's asking me more questions than a district attorney at a grand jury hearing. I just tell him that I recently learned the dice-setting method and that I'm still a work-in-progress. Before we leave, "Big Al" wants to know where I live; he wants to call me so we can shoot craps together (I foolishly write down my number and give to him).

Well, a couple weeks later, "Big Al" calls. I really don't want to shoot craps with him. I give him some lame excuse. I never did hear from him again. But one thing I did remember about my chance meeting with "Big Al,” it was his interest in the "rhythm method. It ain't just about sex, anymore.

[Tall One]

Nice call in the 4th, Teach.. :ThmbUp: