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Is Marking for real?
Is Runhappy in good enough shape to keep rolling?
Interesting race.
If one of them don't bring their A race, the exacta could pay decent.
:1: Pain and Misery has a couple of nice recent race at ZIA against far less, but the numbers are big. I think he is a good bottom horse in here at the odds.
The top one I will have to see what happens tomorrow.
plainolebill
12-26-2015, 01:03 AM
I haven't spent much time on the PPs and I likely won't bet the race but I wonder if the drama surrounding Run Happy's connections, the BC Curse and shipping cross country might take some of the edge of his A game.
Stillriledup
12-26-2015, 03:20 AM
Marking is for real.
A lot of 'for real' horses didnt transfer their form on east to west ship. He's a serious horse though.
EMD4ME
12-26-2015, 03:54 AM
Marking is for real.
A lot of 'for real' horses didnt transfer their form on east to west ship. He's a serious horse though.
I thought Marking was going to win the Cigar Mile, LOVE THIS horse. Had no idea he's running tomorrow as I only really follow NYRA. Thanks to you guys, now I know.
Does anyone know why he was scratched from the CIGAR MILE?
Stillriledup
12-26-2015, 04:18 AM
I thought Marking was going to win the Cigar Mile, LOVE THIS horse. Had no idea he's running tomorrow as I only really follow NYRA. Thanks to you guys, now I know.
Does anyone know why he was scratched from the CIGAR MILE?
Look over SA card, there's a few NY shippers as well as your favorite jocks riding there!
EMD4ME
12-26-2015, 04:20 AM
Look over SA card, there's a few NY shippers as well as your favorite jocks riding there!
Oh boy....might get in trouble tomorrow :D
New meet, no track trend to decipher. My beloved boys in CA (might shit their pants trying to adapt). SHOULD BE FUN LOL!
EMD4ME
12-26-2015, 05:14 AM
Look over SA card, there's a few NY shippers as well as your favorite jocks riding there!
Ortiz Bros in SA for a day!!!! :jump: :jump: :jump:
NYRA might actually have some honest races SATURDAY :) :) :)
Stillriledup
12-26-2015, 05:25 AM
Ortiz Bros in SA for a day!!!! :jump: :jump: :jump:
NYRA might actually have some honest races SATURDAY :) :) :)
Oh no u dit'nt! :D
That SA card is rough, ill mostly be watching and not playing, too many big fields.
EMD4ME
12-26-2015, 05:30 AM
Oh no u dit'nt! :D
That SA card is rough, ill mostly be watching and not playing, too many big fields.
Of course I did. It's 10000% true. Even the head of XXXXXXXX at NYRA nows it. I won't say who specifically but in a recent conversation, he/she said to me: The Ortiz boys should be the writers for WWE as maybe McMahon's ratings would go up!
I am sincerely looking forward to a card without those 2 diseases in a race.
biggestal99
12-26-2015, 08:51 AM
Of course I did. It's 10000% true. Even the head of XXXXXXXX at NYRA nows it. I won't say who specifically but in a recent conversation, he/she said to me: The Ortiz boys should be the writers for WWE as maybe McMahon's ratings would go up!
I am sincerely looking forward to a card without those 2 diseases in a race.
Use to say the same exact thing about Cordero and Velasquez (Jorge not John)
Allan
Kash$
12-26-2015, 09:35 AM
Use to say the same exact thing about Cordero and Velasquez (Jorge not John)
Allan
Lord Nelson offers up some value..RunHappy new trainer :confused:
Allan as far as Angel and Jorge..
Seven prominent active and former jockeys denied under oath yesterday that they had any role in fixing horse races at New York tracks in the mid-1970's..You can google the rest
classhandicapper
12-26-2015, 11:16 AM
If Runhappy runs his "A" race it's going to be extremely difficult for any of the others to improve enough to beat him. There's a bit of a history of BC winners running sub par races in their next start and it's always possible the trainer change is going to be a negative, but this is not the type of horse I am usually anxious to bet against under normal conditions. In this spot it looks like he can control the pace too.
I think the two McLaughlin horses are closer than people think.
People seem to be focusing on Marking, but Watershed is also very good. In the King's Bishop he got off badly and then spent some time on the bad rail. Finishing 4th there in only his second start was not bad at all. In his last start he caught a soft field, but he looped the field very wide while in hand and visually looked like a very good horse. Marking may have first move on him if there's not much pace, but I think he's also a very good horse out of the two that seem to have the most upside.
azeri98
12-26-2015, 11:49 AM
I like Lord Nelson if Runhappy falters, if not he says "see ya later" to this field.
PhantomOnTour
12-26-2015, 12:04 PM
No love for :5: El Kabeir ??
I've always been a fan of his.
Has wins at 4 different tracks, owns 3 GrStks victories, tactical speed, likes 7f, two nice works over the SA surface, could be all set for a bust out race 3rd off the shelf.
8-1 ML odds more than good enough with Smith riding.
TRI:
4-5-ALL
EX:
2-5
5 w 2-3-4-7
WIN:
5
Stillriledup
12-26-2015, 12:07 PM
If Runhappy runs his "A" race it's going to be extremely difficult for any of the others to improve enough to beat him. There's a bit of a history of BC winners running sub par races in their next start and it's always possible the trainer change is going to be a negative, but this is not the type of horse I am usually anxious to bet against under normal conditions. In this spot it looks like he can control the pace too.
I think the two McLaughlin horses are closer than people think.
People seem to be focusing on Marking, but Watershed is also very good. In the King's Bishop he got off badly and then spent some time on the bad rail. Finishing 4th there in only his second start was not bad at all. In his last start he caught a soft field, but he looped the field very wide while in hand and visually looked like a very good horse. Marking may have first move on him if there's not much pace, but I think he's also a very good horse out of the two that seem to have the most upside.
I wouldn't bet a red cent on RH with amateur trainer and no lasx at 3/5 or whatever the price may be.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126549&highlight=Watershed
classhandicapper
12-26-2015, 12:11 PM
I wouldn't bet a red cent on RH with amateur trainer and no lasx at 3/5 or whatever the price may be.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126549&highlight=Watershed
I don't plan on betting on him either, but it's his race unless he doesn't show up.
Stillriledup
12-26-2015, 12:59 PM
I don't plan on betting on him either, but it's his race unless he doesn't show up.
I think he can show up and lose fair and square, but, maybe that's just me :D
My problem with Watershed is he seems to trouble getting to the track.
Ouchy?
Tall One
12-26-2015, 04:59 PM
I like Lord Nelson if Runhappy falters, if not he says "see ya later" to this field.
He'll appreciate the return to 7f today. El Kabeir, imo, is sitting on a good one too. Boxing them two in the exacta.
Speed Figure
12-26-2015, 05:09 PM
How my program has it. Two highlighted overlay's with El Kabeir & Watershed, we shall see!
plainolebill
12-26-2015, 07:00 PM
I'm going to take a shot with Lord Nelson, I like him drawn outside the other speed. Maybe an exacta with El Kabeir.
:7: Lord Nelson - Let's see if he can show a little speed, be within reach for a run in the lane.
Little over the top call down the stretch by Frank.
classhandicapper
12-26-2015, 08:04 PM
Little over the top call down the stretch by Frank.
Just a bit. ;)
I don't have any figures yet, but it didn't look like the pace was especially fast given the very fast final time. Marking ran well. Lezcano was using him to stay with Runhappy. I didn't think that was an especially good idea if he wanted to hold second, but he held second anyway.
You may have been right about Watershed. Maybe he was a bit short.
azeri98
12-26-2015, 09:39 PM
Runhappy was not tested in this race.
magwell
12-26-2015, 10:17 PM
Runhappy was not tested in this race.No doubt about it he"s much the best, it appears that it doesn't matter who trains this horse that's how good he is, and without lasix, amazing turn of speed......:cool:
Just a bit. ;)
I don't have any figures yet, but it didn't look like the pace was especially fast given the very fast final time. Marking ran well. Lezcano was using him to stay with Runhappy. I didn't think that was an especially good idea if he wanted to hold second, but he held second anyway.
You may have been right about Watershed. Maybe he was a bit short.
I have it fast, think the track was definitely slower for the 7th and 8th race than it was for the earlier races.
Marking looked dead before the turn, not sure how he kept going for second.
Watershed beat Sharm last time, not exactly G1 credentials.
~132 for Runhappy today...big race for sure. I hope he finds his way to a real trainer at some point.
ultracapper
12-27-2015, 04:39 AM
~132 for Runhappy today...big race for sure. I hope he finds his way to a real trainer at some point.
Visually very impressive.
classhandicapper
12-27-2015, 09:53 AM
Watershed beat Sharm last time, not exactly G1 credentials.
The last race was against very weak, but he was a block better than those and he was good in the Saratoga stake. I think Tom was right. After Tom's comment I took another look at his PPs. The mini layoff hadn't bother me much, but there was a long gap in the workouts during that period. So something must have been amiss. I don't think he ran his race yesterday. If he had, I think he would have been in the mix for 2nd.
I took a quick look at the races and it looked to me like the track may have gotten slower late also.
The last race was against very weak, but he was a block better than those and he was good in the Saratoga stake. I think Tom was right. After Tom's comment I took another look at his PPs. The mini layoff hadn't bother me much, but there was a long gap in the workouts during that period. So something must have been amiss. I don't think he ran his race yesterday. If he had, I think he would have been in the mix for 2nd.
I took a quick look at the races and it looked to me like the track may have gotten slower late also.
I think it definitely slowed before the two G1s. I see the La Brea got an 89 Beyer. Soon G1s will get 70s the way things are going.
EMD4ME
12-27-2015, 10:45 AM
I think it definitely slowed before the two G1s. I see the La Brea got an 89 Beyer. Soon G1s will get 70s the way things are going.
I think he and his team have lost their minds and their ability to do simple math....
How does he give the La Brea an 89 and RH a 102???? RH ran at least 8 lengths faster.
Last I checked 8 X 2 is 16. 89 plus 16 is 105. Factor in the slowing of the track and it's possibly 107-108.
He gave the 2 year old maiden race an 89 as well (race 5). They went 2/5 slower on a faster track!!! If that race is a true 89, the La Brea is at least a 93. Factor in a slower track and they are probably worth a 97. RH then gets a 113 plus.
Am I missing something?
garyscpa
12-27-2015, 10:48 AM
I wouldn't bet a red cent on RH with amateur trainer and no lasx at 3/5 or whatever the price may be.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126549&highlight=Watershed
Would you attribute the improved start from Runhappy (his major weakness before) to the amateur trainer?
I think he and his team have lost their minds and their ability to do simple math....
How does he give the La Brea an 89 and RH a 102???? RH ran at least 8 lengths faster.
Last I checked 8 X 2 is 16. 89 plus 16 is 105. Factor in the slowing of the track and it's possibly 107-108.
He gave the 2 year old maiden race an 89 as well (race 5). They went 2/5 slower on a faster track!!! If that race is a true 89, the La Brea is at least a 93. Factor in a slower track and they are probably worth a 97. RH then gets a 113 plus.
Am I missing something?
The difference on the old speed charts (before the recent change) should have been about 20 points between the two races. I know he changed things, but it was a small change, certainly wouldn't account for the missing 7 points.
Would you attribute the improved start from Runhappy (his major weakness before) to the amateur trainer?
He broke well in the BC Sprint as well if I am remembering correctly.
garyscpa
12-27-2015, 12:09 PM
He broke well in the BC Sprint as well if I am remembering correctly.
"Runhappy had been on the lead in each of the four previous victories during his streak but found himself in somewhat unfamiliar territory after breaking a bit slowly, as he normally does, and chasing the early leaders, Holy Boss and Private Zone, down the backstretch and into the turn."
http://www.drf.com/news/runhappy-sets-track-record-breeders-cup-sprint
classhandicapper
12-27-2015, 12:22 PM
Based on my analysis, it looks like Beyer had the day in the fast 20 range and broke out the La Brea to a fast 15. That's why the La Brea and Malibu are not in sync.
I don't know a lot of the horses that ran on that card, but if you can concede that the La Brea came up too slow relative to the rest of of the day and break it out, I would have made it faster than an 89. That was a decent field. With an 89, every horse in the race looks like it ran sub par except the winner and the race is about 10 points below PAR. That makes less sense than saying Birdatthewire (who had run an 89 early in the year as a 3yo) jumped up to win a Grade 1 and ran a new top and the others ran OK.
The Malibu's 102 looks a little slow to me also, but if you add as much to this one as the La Brea might need, it looks like a bit of a stretch.
The track may have changed twice.
I don't need exact figures for these changing track speed issues. I think I have a good line on the horses in both those races. There's no way Runhappy is a below PAR Malibu winner and there's no way the La Brea horses are total slugs.
Based on my analysis, it looks like Beyer had the day in the fast 20 range and broke out the La Brea to a fast 15. That's why the La Brea and Malibu are not in sync.
I don't know a lot of the horses that ran on that card, but if you can concede that the La Brea came up too slow relative to the rest of of the day and break it out, I would have made it faster than an 89. That was a decent field. With an 89, every horse in the race looks like it ran sub par except the winner and the race is about 10 points below PAR. That makes less sense than saying Birdatthewire (who had run an 89 early in the year as a 3yo) jumped up to win a Grade 1 and ran a new top and the others ran OK.
The Malibu's 102 looks a little slow to me also, but if you add as much to this one as the La Brea might need, it looks like a bit of a stretch.
The track may have changed twice.
I don't need exact figures for these changing track speed issues. I think I have a good line on the horses in both those races. There's no way Runhappy is a below PAR Malibu winner and there's no way the La Brea horses are total slugs.
The 102 for Runhappy is just silly IMO. He's one of the best sprinters we've seen in a long time. He broke great yesterday too.
"Runhappy had been on the lead in each of the four previous victories during his streak but found himself in somewhat unfamiliar territory after breaking a bit slowly, as he normally does, and chasing the early leaders, Holy Boss and Private Zone, down the backstretch and into the turn."
http://www.drf.com/news/runhappy-sets-track-record-breeders-cup-sprint
I'll watch again, but he had broken much worse on prior occasions in my opinion.
Kash$
12-27-2015, 12:48 PM
Beyer has Green Gratto with a bigger fig then RunHappy
107>102
ultracapper
12-27-2015, 12:51 PM
I can already see an article in Thursday's DRF. "Beyer re-visiting opening day at Santa Anita." Then some yip yap about re-assessing this or that and updating the numbers.
EMD4ME
12-27-2015, 01:13 PM
Beyer has Green Gratto with a bigger fig then RunHappy
107>102
Holy CRAP. He deserves to be sent to a nursing home. Hate to say it but the team has lost their rocker.
I'll watch again, but he had broken much worse on prior occasions in my opinion.
Watched again, including the head on, he broke fine in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Minniethemoocher
12-27-2015, 03:17 PM
+1
garyscpa
12-28-2015, 12:05 PM
Watched again, including the head on, he broke fine in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
Hard to tell from the video. The chart says he broke 10th, which was a concern given his post position. He got into striking position fairly quickly though.
The difference on the old speed charts (before the recent change) should have been about 20 points between the two races. I know he changed things, but it was a small change, certainly wouldn't account for the missing 7 points.
He changed dirt as well as turf?
I thought it was just turf.
azeri98
12-28-2015, 12:23 PM
I cant trust beyer speed figures anymore, I don't use them at all. The examples you guys just provided is why.
Hard to tell from the video. The chart says he broke 10th, which was a concern given his post position. He got into striking position fairly quickly though.
I watched the head on, didn't see any problem at all.
He changed dirt as well as turf?
I thought it was just turf.
I think it was dirt too, but to be honest I don't pay much attention any longer. I read his articles, that is about it, until somebody asks about a race and cites his numbers.
classhandicapper
12-28-2015, 02:56 PM
He changed dirt as well as turf?
I thought it was just turf.
There was a minor tweak to the beaten length formula for dirt also, but that would hardly be noticeable and has nothing to do with these races. In general though, people that look at his figures use the 1 and 2 turn time charts he published years ago in his books. Those are out of date.
There was a minor tweak to the beaten length formula for dirt also, but that would hardly be noticeable and has nothing to do with these races. In general though, people that look at his figures use the 1 and 2 turn time charts he published years ago in his books. Those are out of date.
Of course they are, but it isn't hard to figure out the "new" charts if one is so inclined to do so.
classhandicapper
12-29-2015, 04:16 PM
Beyer has Green Gratto with a bigger fig then RunHappy
107>102
This is not to pick on Beyer because I see things like this from time to time with everyone's speed figures. But does anyone believe Green Gratto would have been competitive against Runhappy this last weekend?
I think Runhappy would have smoked him with ease even though I concede that Green Gratto is pretty sharp for a Grade 3 sprinter right now.
That's the dilemma with figures. Not only are there accuracy issues, there are also quality of field/development and trip issues that impact the times of races.
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