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Capper Al
12-16-2015, 06:26 PM
Two horses running in a 61/2 furlong race in the same race today that have both been out of the money in their last two starts after a 45 day layoff. Both have an E (early) running style. Who is most likely to get to the first call first? It all comes down to speed verse position.

A: 21 days ago track X 61/2f ft 1st call 22.2 pos 4 2 lgts field size 9
... 42 days ago track X 61/2f ft 1st call 22.2 pos 4 2 lgts field size 9

B: 21 days ago track X 61/2f ft 1st call 23.2 pos 2 2 lgts field size 9
.... 42 days ago track X 61/2f ft 1st call 23.2 pos 2 2 lgts field size 9

I like horse A. Who do you like and why?

jasperson
12-16-2015, 07:27 PM
horse A because 2 back a 22.2 is faster than 2 back at 23.2

Capper Al
12-16-2015, 08:44 PM
I think some would like horse B because of the need to lead and showing some fight, a better true pace picture. But I'm with you, I like speed over position or beaten lengths.

Capper Al
12-17-2015, 10:17 AM
Quirin's choice might be B?

raybo
12-18-2015, 09:10 AM
Why not post races that are real? That's the only way to properly analyze, and get valid feedback from the actual results. The 4 races you posted seem obviously to be hypothetical scenarios, as both horses had identical positioning, times, and days since, for their last 2 races. No disrespect meant, but a poor example, IMO.

However, based on the sparse, and unrealistic data you have provided, I would be concerned about horse A getting to the 1st call before horse B. Why? Because in horse A's last 2 races, even though it appeared to be out of form by finishing out of the money (depending on the class of those 2 fields of course), the horse appears to recently be more comfortable running as a presser to mid pack runner rather than as an "E" horse, while horse B, again, apparently off form in its last 2 races (and again, depending on the class of those 2 fields), for the same reason, ran closer to the lead in its last 2 races, and closer to being an "E/P" horse rather than a presser to mid pack runner , even though the time was slower (early positioning often has nothing to do with how fast the early pace actually is). Often a fast 1st call pace will not affect a slower horse's positioning to the 1st call if it wants to run close to the lead or on the lead (a true "E" horse), as most horses can run a fast 1st call time if need be, due to their preferred running style (especially in sprint races), and many times a true "E" or "E/P" horse will take the lead or closely press the lead under an extremely fast pace, even though the horse can not comfortably run that fast without dooming its chances of running a competitive race in the remaining portions of the race. So, that being said, horse B appears to be closer to being an "E" or "E/P" horse, recently, than horse A.

It would be nice to see data for the other horses in today's field, along with their running styles and last 2 performances to the 1st call. That data could very well favor either horse A or horse B getting to the 1st call first.

This hypothetical, is really a "complete guess", with not nearly enough data to make an informed decision.

davew
12-18-2015, 12:41 PM
I would also like to know post positions, total number in race, and distance to first turn.

Capper Al
12-18-2015, 01:47 PM
Okay, I'll look for races from now on.

raybo
12-18-2015, 02:13 PM
I would also like to know post positions, total number in race, and distance to first turn.

Personally, the most important factor that was not included was "class" and how many "E" and "E/P" horses were/are in the field. Do you really think that two true "E" types, each having 2 starts after a layoff, would have 1st calls of 2nd and 4th positions, by 4 lgths and 2 lgths, if they were properly placed regarding "class", in both races? Wouldn't you expect that at least one of those horses, in at least 1 of the last 2 races, would have been closer than 2 lengths from the leader, if they were properly placed by class?

Also, it would help if we knew what criteria was used for the assignment of "E" running styles. Were they assigned using only "good" races, or were they assigned using the last 10 races, or were they assigned according to sprint versus route, by dirt races only (assuming today's race is a dirt race), assigned only if the horses got good breaks from the gate, or any kind of break, etc.? if you're going to use running styles as a significant factor, the running styles assignments should be as representative as possible, in order to place some kind of probability of their running that way in today's race.