Horse Racing sees NO PROBLEM WITH THIS?

[NorCalGreg]

1ST TURF PARADISE 12-14

Value of Race: $12,500 Winner $7,518;second $2,425;third $1,213;fourth $606;fifth $363

5 -MALIBU KASH Diodoro 3.60 2.40 2.10
4 -HYMN'S GIRL Diodoro 3.80 3.00
2 -SHE SPENDS MY LUTE Diodoro 3.20

$1.00 Trifecta (5-4-2) Paid: $23.60

Trainers- 1, Diodoro Robertino;2, Diodoro Robertino;3, Diodoro Robertino;4, Pearson Molly J;5, Pearson Molly

*There were other entries--they couldn't compete w/the track bully.
The reason I included the tri payoff--kind of stunned boxing the 3 Diodoro horses would have paid off 4x your wager. In what bizarro world did un-tripled entries become the norm? And these guys are fighting over mere crumbs, relatively speaking.

[lamboguy]

unfortunately you have uncovered horse racing's number 1 problem. it actually is more prevalent in larger places like Gulfstream now where the same trainers have all the horses, win a very high percentage of the races and force the smaller guys out.

[paddy79]

God help US racing if the betfair exchange is able to operate fully in the US. If you think trainers and jockeys are bad now...

[Stillriledup]

God help US racing if the betfair exchange is able to operate fully in the US. If you think trainers and jockeys are bad now...

I disagree and here's why.

The exchange will weed out fixed races and shenanigans more than the regular pools do. The current criminals, whoever they may be, can win as much money as they want to in blind pools. The exchange isn't blind, a name is attached to an account, if odd betting happens, you get caught. If something odd happens into the regular pools, you can get away with it and you can bet anonymously.

Also, if there's unusual betting, the accounts get frozen until they figure out how legit. Pull a scam on the exchange and you might not get paid.

Exchange will only help sniff out the crooks, it isn't going to create larceny in the hearts of honest people.

[AndyC]

God help US racing if the betfair exchange is able to operate fully in the US. If you think trainers and jockeys are bad now...

Wouldn't the trainers and jockeys have to make a very traceable large bet in order to benefit from Betfair? Currently they can hide all of their bets through the tote system and utilize the leverage of exotics.

Unfortunately the people who can make Betfair happen in the US share the same uninformed opinion of the poster.

[bello]

Glad it wasn't a super high 5 race. Finley is so correct on another thread started yesterday. And it does not need to be super high 5's. Can just as well be supers and tris. And if it causes suspicion, so what....nothing ever happens.

5 horse race with 2 trainers is a joke. Don't race the race if that is the best they can come up with,

[green80]

I think that most bets made into the pools at the track can be traced too. Every track I have been to have video cameras directed towards the betting windows. All tickets are time stamped. If a suspicious wager is made all the track has to do is pull the video of that window at the time the bet was made and see if they can identify the patron that made the wager. Can someone that is more familiar with track security elaborate on this?

[Stillriledup]

I think that most bets made into the pools at the track can be traced too. Every track I have been to have video cameras directed towards the betting windows. All tickets are time stamped. If a suspicious wager is made all the track has to do is pull the video of that window at the time the bet was made and see if they can identify the patron that made the wager. Can someone that is more familiar with track security elaborate on this?

They could probably be traced, but they're not.

Lets take the fix 6 boys for example, instead of going single four times with two All's, why not just go 2 deep in those legs, All's in last 2 and don't hit repeat? If they weren't so stupid and just try and hit it once, they get away with it. Once you know the first four winners you can probably guess if the pick 6 is going to pay into the 6 figures or it's going to pay 5k. The 'repeats' and the silly
Ticket structuring was what got them caught.

Here's the scary part.....if they had NOT hit repeat and only got this once, they get away with it. Nobody would have looked into the winning tickets and seen the impossible structure of 4 singles with All's and dug deeper, nobody would have cared. I've advocated tedious research on every large winning wager, look into the purchasers, the structures and whatnut, this way if there's any pattern of past posting or fixed races, a common thread can be discovered thru who, why, what and how.

[paddy79]

I disagree and here's why.

The exchange will weed out fixed races and shenanigans more than the regular pools do. The current criminals, whoever they may be, can win as much money as they want to in blind pools. The exchange isn't blind, a name is attached to an account, if odd betting happens, you get caught. If something odd happens into the regular pools, you can get away with it and you can bet anonymously.

Also, if there's unusual betting, the accounts get frozen until they figure out how legit. Pull a scam on the exchange and you might not get paid.

Exchange will only help sniff out the crooks, it isn't going to create larceny in the hearts of honest people.


Disagree. And this is based on years of playing uk/Irish racing

Trainers and jockeys have lots of mates in their circles. It's not hard to make a lot of accounts. Most will already have account anyway since they are in the game. Jockeys can make sure horses lose races they are meant to win. They can get them unplaced easily. The ability to lay opens up so much possibity for corruption. Also, poor rides like the one sanjur had in the first at hawthorn today will be assumed to be bent rides. You see all levels of cheating going on day to day in ireland/UK and betfair is a huge reason for it

[Stillriledup]

Disagree. And this is based on years of playing uk/Irish racing

Trainers and jockeys have lots of mates in their circles. It's not hard to make a lot of accounts. Most will already have account anyway since they are in the game. Jockeys can make sure horses lose races they are meant to win. They can get them unplaced easily. The ability to lay opens up so much possibity for corruption. Also, poor rides like the one sanjur had in the first at hawthorn today will be assumed to be bent rides. You see all levels of cheating going on day to day in ireland/UK and betfair is a huge reason for it

This is what happens in an exchange when the fix is in. This doesn't happen in horse racing pari mutuel pools.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/tennis/atptour/2318284/Betfair-suspect-tennis-betting-foul-play.html

[ebcorde]

1ST TURF PARADISE 12-14

Value of Race: $12,500 Winner $7,518;second $2,425;third $1,213;fourth $606;fifth $363

5 -MALIBU KASH Diodoro 3.60 2.40 2.10
4 -HYMN'S GIRL Diodoro 3.80 3.00
2 -SHE SPENDS MY LUTE Diodoro 3.20

$1.00 Trifecta (5-4-2) Paid: $23.60

Trainers- 1, Diodoro Robertino;2, Diodoro Robertino;3, Diodoro Robertino;4, Pearson Molly J;5, Pearson Molly

*There were other entries--they couldn't compete w/the track bully.
The reason I included the tri payoff--kind of stunned boxing the 3 Diodoro horses would have paid off 4x your wager. In what bizarro world did un-tripled entries become the norm? And these guys are fighting over mere crumbs, relatively speaking.

never saw that before

btw: must suck being out there, the horse tracks are slim out there. Tup? yuck. hate the track. and what is the secret to GG? I'm 0-14 YEARS there.

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

5 horse race with 2 trainers is a joke. Don't race the race if that is the best they can come up with,

It wasn't. It was a 10 horse field that scratched down to 8 when it was taken off the turf.

[AndyC]

Disagree. And this is based on years of playing uk/Irish racing

Trainers and jockeys have lots of mates in their circles. It's not hard to make a lot of accounts. Most will already have account anyway since they are in the game. Jockeys can make sure horses lose races they are meant to win. They can get them unplaced easily. The ability to lay opens up so much possibity for corruption. Also, poor rides like the one sanjur had in the first at hawthorn today will be assumed to be bent rides. You see all levels of cheating going on day to day in ireland/UK and betfair is a huge reason for it

How much money can a person make by the ability to lay? Not a hell of a lot and certainly not many times. Just how many mates do you include in your cheating ring? You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to connect the dots and figure out whose horses don't run well when an unusually large amount is layed.

[Stillriledup]

How much money can a person make by the ability to lay? Not a hell of a lot and certainly not many times. Just how many mates do you include in your cheating ring? You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to connect the dots and figure out whose horses don't run well when an unusually large amount is layed.

I agree, it's pretty simple to connect the dots and even if you can't connect the dots, you just don't pay if it seems shady. Regular PM pools always pay 2 seconds after the race. They don't put a "hold' on it like a Betfair might.

[NorCalGreg]

It wasn't. It was a 10 horse field that scratched down to 8 when it was taken off the turf.

"*There were other entries--they couldn't compete w/the track bully."

yeah I did mention there were a few other hapless entrants---did you happen to box that tri, john? Swear if I thought it would pay anything like that I would have jumped on it---I'm guessing most other bettors thought it wouldn't be worth it to risk $6 to win $9--on a $1 tri box---when it paid almost $24.00 That's why the sharp, profitable pro players can exploit situations such as this.......while we're left to bitch about it on some internet forum.

[steveb]

How much money can a person make by the ability to lay? Not a hell of a lot and certainly not many times. Just how many mates do you include in your cheating ring? You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to connect the dots and figure out whose horses don't run well when an unusually large amount is layed.

they can make lots and lots.

in one particular jurisdiction in australia, and despite betfair giving them access to the information, these stewards don't bother asking for it.
well that is what it once was, not sure about now.
they would have to be the most useless upholders of integrity that i have ever witnessed.
that's one reason why i walked away.

but betfair is just the easy excuse some use.
it's not as if racing was holier than thou, before betfair came along.
and betfair does make it easier to check patterns, that would once have been untraceable.

from once being vehemently opposed to betfair, and threatening people with jail for using, it now appears racing officialdom in australia is embracing it, at least in some states they are.

but i don't think betfair is going terribly well here, and maybe are even losing money, although i am not sure

[Stillriledup]

they can make lots and lots.

in one particular jurisdiction in australia, and despite betfair giving them access to the information, these stewards don't bother asking for it.
well that is what it once was, not sure about now.
they would have to be the most useless upholders of integrity that i have ever witnessed.
that's one reason why i walked away.

but betfair is just the easy excuse some use.
it's not as if racing was holier than thou, before betfair came along.
and betfair does make it easier to check patterns, that would once have been untraceable.

from once being vehemently opposed to betfair, and threatening people with jail for using, it now appears racing officialdom in australia is embracing it, at least in some states they are.

but i don't think betfair is going terribly well here, and maybe are even losing money, although i am not sure

You can't make a cent if Betfair or whatever exchange you're using doesn't pay. You think you can clobber Betfair and they won't notice unusual betting action?

[johnhannibalsmith]

...did you happen to box that tri, john? ...

I didn't make a bet yesterday. Even if I had liked the race and thought it might pay like that, with the track closed for training in the morning and the race off the turf, I'd probably do my best to force myself from playing the first race at a minimum in light of uncertain track conditions and the reality that the field was shod with queen's plates for the turf and either had to be re-shod when the change was announced, or added mud nails, or run as is. Just too many questions in general under the circumstances to want to plunk down money even if I thought such a predictable outcome could return like that.

[steveb]

You can't make a cent if Betfair or whatever exchange you're using doesn't pay. You think you can clobber Betfair and they won't notice unusual betting action?

do not understand?

i had made lots of money via betfair, but chose to stop using them, before i actually stopped betting, because of other reasons.
but never once did i have any problems getting paid(or withdrawing funds) if i won....why would one have problems getting paid?

[whodoyoulike]

"*There were other entries--they couldn't compete w/the track bully."

yeah I did mention there were a few other hapless entrants---did you happen to box that tri, john? Swear if I thought it would pay anything like that I would have jumped on it---I'm guessing most other bettors thought it wouldn't be worth it to risk $6 to win $9--on a $1 tri box---when it paid almost $24.00 That's why the sharp, profitable pro players can exploit situations such as this.......while we're left to bitch about it on some internet forum.

This is one of the problems I have betting Trifectas. You don't know what the payout will be. You may have been able to estimate from the exacta payouts but still uncertain if that's true in this case.

What were the odds of the horses in your example in post #1 and your plan was to box the three?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Lets take the fix 6 boys for example, instead of going single four times with two All's, why not just go 2 deep in those legs, All's in last 2 and don't hit repeat? If they weren't so stupid and just try and hit it once, they get away with it. Once you know the first four winners you can probably guess if the pick 6 is going to pay into the 6 figures or it's going to pay 5k. The 'repeats' and the silly
Ticket structuring was what got them caught.

Here's the scary part.....if they had NOT hit repeat and only got this once, they get away with it. Nobody would have looked into the winning tickets and seen the impossible structure of 4 singles with All's and dug deeper, nobody would have cared. I've advocated tedious research on every large winning wager, look into the purchasers, the structures and whatnut, this way if there's any pattern of past posting or fixed races, a common thread can be discovered thru who, why, what and how.

While their ticket structuring made it clear a crime had been committed, it was really Volponi at 43-1 that got them caught. Had Medaglia d'Oro won the Classic, their $12 P6 payout would have been lost in the much smaller payout.

Those Drexel boys might still be raking hay on hacked bets and uncashed tickets....

[NorCalGreg]

This is one of the problems I have betting Trifectas. You don't know what the payout will be. You may have been able to estimate from the exacta payouts but still uncertain if that's true in this case.

What were the odds of the horses in your example in post #1 and your plan was to box the three?

You may have missed what I was saying, whodo....I'm sometimes direct--to a fault:
"That's why the sharp, profitable pro players can exploit situations such as this.......while we're left to bitch about it on some internet forum".

Obviously, I'm including myself in this group of "bitchers"--I started the thread

I don't have tote software, didn't even see or bet the race--I look at charts for interesting nuggets and saw this. Anyone who has ever played the races can see even the $2 exacta paid $17 for a 4/5 shot winner on top w/3rd choice running 2nd. That's very high for this trainer, who's so overbet it's ridiculous.

[Stillriledup]

While their ticket structuring made it clear a crime had been committed, it was really Volponi at 43-1 that got them caught. Had Medaglia d'Oro won the Classic, their $12 P6 payout would have been lost in the much smaller payout.

Those Drexel boys might still be raking hay on hacked bets and uncashed tickets....

They would still be cashing in, I would still be pointing out 'low payoffs' and people here at PA would be telling me the payouts are legit.

[NorCalGreg]

They would still be cashing in, I would still be pointing out 'low payoffs' and people here at PA would be telling me the payouts are legit.

LOL...you're gonna go to your grave muttering about "those payouts were to low, I'm tellin ya" :lol:

[Stillriledup]

LOL...you're gonna go to your grave muttering about "those payouts were to low, I'm tellin ya" :lol:

:lol:

No doubt!!

[MONEY]

Jockeys can make sure horses lose races they are meant to win. They can get them unplaced easily.

The Jockey on the horse that finished 3rd was supposed to finish out of the money.

wII4p6JuaYg

Thread
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124228&highlight=Evangeline+Downs

[whodoyoulike]

You may have missed what I was saying, whodo....I'm sometimes direct--to a fault:
"That's why the sharp, profitable pro players can exploit situations such as this.......while we're left to bitch about it on some internet forum".

Obviously, I'm including myself in this group of "bitchers"--I started the thread

I don't have tote software, didn't even see or bet the race--I look at charts for interesting nuggets and saw this. Anyone who has ever played the races can see even the $2 exacta paid $17 for a 4/5 shot winner on top w/3rd choice running 2nd. That's very high for this trainer, who's so overbet it's ridiculous.

You're correct, I missed the point of your thread. Not used to seeing people "bitch" about a race payout when they weren't even involved. Btw, the winner's odds were 4/5; 2nd place was 5/1 and 3rd was 5/2.

[NorCalGreg]

You're correct, I missed the point of your thread. Not used to seeing people "bitch" about a race payout when they weren't even involved. Btw, the winner's odds were 4/5; 2nd place was 5/1 and 3rd was 5/2.


You miss a lot, whodo. Reading comprehension isn't your strong suit, I get that. No worries.
Have a good evening.

-NCG☮

[paddy79]

How much money can a person make by the ability to lay? Not a hell of a lot and certainly not many times. Just how many mates do you include in your cheating ring? You don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to connect the dots and figure out whose horses don't run well when an unusually large amount is layed.


I saw a 1/10 shot beaten last night at Hawthorn. On betfair if you laid it to lose $10, you'd make $100, not bad for a $10 outlay. On the place market it would have been 1/33 or 1/25. You do the math. Betfair place markets have hundreds of thousands worth of liquidity. You're talking about an unusually large amount of money and so I am but lets not forget lower amounts also. Plus it's not in betfairs interest to always report these things due to the bad publicity. Betfair just introduces negativity all round.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

paddy79 is right about Betfair

I used to believe in the arguments put forth by Stillriledup and AndyC but after years of betting on Betfair I can say these views are wrong and paddy79 is right

A set up where everyone is entitled to lay a horse does not work as the crooks will have a shot at the easy money before long and it is very easy to cover your tracks if you have half a brain

[Stillriledup]

paddy79 is right about Betfair

I used to believe in the arguments put forth by Stillriledup and AndyC but after years of betting on Betfair I can say these views are wrong and paddy79 is right

A set up where everyone is entitled to lay a horse does not work as the crooks will have a shot at the easy money before long and it is very easy to cover your tracks if you have half a brain

I think the argument isn't that it's impossible to 'get over' on the exchange, the argument that some are making is that the exchange will make things worse and will create criminal activity and shenanigans that otherwise wouldn't have happened in the real pools.

I don't know what goes on at BETFAIR other than sometimes people don't get paid, which never happens in regular pari mutuel pools.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Stillriledup

Betfair will increase the shenanigans and the number of non triers

Yes you can get an advantage using the totes to profit from a non trier. But Betfair makes it easier to profit from non triers. It is a question of degree and Betfair (or any other exchange) makes it easier by several degrees to profit from non triers. Some people will take advantage of this new opportunity

To become a bookie in most jurisdictions you are supposed to undergo various probity checks. Not sure there are any on Betfair apart from supplying your identity documents etc

[biggestal99]

God help US racing if the betfair exchange is able to operate fully in the US. If you think trainers and jockeys are bad now...

Turf Paradise ALREADY allows exchange wagering on races. :eek:

Allan

[biggestal99]

I saw a 1/10 shot beaten last night at Hawthorn. On betfair if you laid it to lose $10, you'd make $100, not bad for a $10 outlay. On the place market it would have been 1/33 or 1/25. You do the math. Betfair place markets have hundreds of thousands worth of liquidity. You're talking about an unusually large amount of money and so I am but lets not forget lower amounts also. Plus it's not in betfairs interest to always report these things due to the bad publicity. Betfair just introduces negativity all round.

Betting 1-10 shots NOT to win is not the road to riches. LOL.

They win 90% or better over the long run.

some losing horseplayers always have blamed jocks for "stiffing" chalkies since time began well before betfair came into existence.

Allan

[AndyC]

Stillriledup

Betfair will increase the shenanigans and the number of non triers

Yes you can get an advantage using the totes to profit from a non trier. But Betfair makes it easier to profit from non triers. It is a question of degree and Betfair (or any other exchange) makes it easier by several degrees to profit from non triers. Some people will take advantage of this new opportunity

To become a bookie in most jurisdictions you are supposed to undergo various probity checks. Not sure there are any on Betfair apart from supplying your identity documents etc

How would someone benefit from a non trier via Betfair vs the tote? Using Betfair, unless you were laying against an odds on favorite you would be putting up more money than you would be winning. You would need to include the jockey and a person to make your bet. The person making your bet should be far enough removed from your personal circle so as not to be easily connected. The betting pattern of your beard should show many similar type bets so he would not raise suspicion. A person who routinely lays $1000 a race would be sending up a huge flag when suddenly going out for $50K.

Contrast that with the tote where knowledge of a non trier would allow for leverage type bets in the trifectas, superfectas, exacta, and P-Xs. Far easier to get lost in the exotic pools than a Betfair pool.

[fmhealth]

Just as a heads-up. Diodoro has three in the second Saturday 12/26 (48% of the runners). Perhaps history will repeat itself in the space of 12 days.

Be Well,
fmhealth

[MonmouthParkJoe]

As far as the payout is concerned, it doesnt look suspicious.

The CPMA did a study a few years back showing the relationship between wagering pools. Basically, you take the win price times the place price for the exacta. For the tri, take the win price times the place price times the show price. The tri price, based on a $2 payout, makes sense. A payout less than half of what you calculate, should be investigated and shows concern for a possible "fix". Just something to consider. Adjust for the base price of the wager, so $1 should be half, ect

[highnote]

from once being vehemently opposed to betfair, and threatening people with jail for using, it now appears racing officialdom in australia is embracing it, at least in some states they are.

but i don't think betfair is going terribly well here, and maybe are even losing money, although i am not sure


Betting exchanges will not become legal in the U.S. until everyone who is politically connected gets a cut of the action. I'm not implying politicians accepting bribes; although, there may be some of that. I'm implying political patronage -- like jobs for the friends of the governor. Then there will be taxes for the state and local governments, and payments to horsemen groups, etc.

Once the political payments are made the betting exchanges will have to raise their fees. That will destroy the high-volume/low-fee, and low fixed cost/low variable cost, advantage that betting exchange businesses once had over pari-mutuel operators.