COLUMN PACE MAKES THE RACE

[ldiatone]

from FB
http://www.pastthewire.com/pace-makes-the-race/

[cj]

I like Jonathan, he is a sharp guy. But I disagree about predicting the pace. If it were as easy as he says, he'd be a rich man long retired. I think it is very tough and full of surprises. This is why I will always consider predicting the pace a secondary factor in handicapping. When it is obvious, there is no value anyway. Everyone bets accordingly.

The race he uses is a good example. Who really could have honestly predicted Frosted would press American Pharoah like he did with confidence? Sure, it was possible and should be built into handicapping the race, but you still had to think Keen Ice was good enough to get up if that happened.

[classhandicapper]

Some of my best longshots were based on my pace projections and others were because I ignored my own pace projections. There is a lesson in there about price that I have to relearn on a regular basis. ;)

[EMD4ME]

Connections and jockey/trainer relations have to be figured in to "projecting pace scenarios".

What also should be inluded is what I call "gate notes". What I mean by that is detailed notes on how each horse broke from the gate. Were they a sandwich victim? Did that same sandwich victim have tons of speed and was choked down because there was a wall in front of them? Did a horse lead OR run a solid Q1 pace fig because they were quarter horsed to death by the jock or did they run a fast Q1 on their own?

Many variables to understanding/projecting pace. Fascinating stuff to say the least.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I think the Travers was a rare case where the pace scenario was surprising to everyone. Frosted was not a very likely choice to challenge Pharoah. I think that pace and the way the track is playing are closely connected. Speed horses that hold up may benefit from a track playing kindly to speed as much as pace, similarly for horses that close. It's good to have an assessment of whether the rail or mid track seems to be the advantageous place, and whether it is glib or tiring.

Good handicappers may have three advantages. They know things the average player doesn't; they "see" things in the past performances that the average player doesn't; they are able to analyze data in ways the average player can't.

[Cratos]

from FB
http://www.pastthewire.com/pace-makes-the-race/
Thanks for posting this article; it was a great read and I agree with the author.