Pace Makes The Race Update

[Dave Schwartz]

I am making steady progress. I do expect to get the product out in an early beta release by the end of December. However, it just will not have enough WOW material in it by that time to be ready for a prime time audience.

I have pushed back the official beta release a full month, to the end of January.

Let me tell you what I have thus far:

1. The "copy/paste entries" process is written for the no-download users.
The idea is to get the race date and horse names in so that you can handicap.

2. For those entering data, the mechanism for storing every race, every horse, and every paceline is written. As you can imagine, this was a monstrous undertaking but will ultimately save you a huge amount of work.

The actual entry of the data is on schedule for next week.

3. The structure for supporting Par Times and class levels is finished. (You can imagine where those pars originate.)


About the Software
There are several key things to know about this software. Based upon its name you would (logically) assume that the Pace Makes the Race software is primarily a Pace Handicapping tool. There will be a pace module to end all pace modules.

But the program is not really just about pace.

More than anything else, it is designed to be a Super Modeling program.

Think of a grid with rows and columns for data - like a spreadsheet. Imagine that you have control over what goes into a particular column.

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/BBSImages/PMTR/The%20Grid-0001.jpg

While you do not have the ability to write formulas, you do have the ability insert, delete and change columns database-wide.

Of course, perhaps you're not really interested in doing this and just want to take the default installation of columns. You can do that - choosing from a number of different column setups already created for you.


In reality, there are actually 80 columns...

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/BBSImages/PMTR/The%20Grid-0002.jpg

... The first 50 for Previous Starters and the last 30 for FTS and Foreign Starters.


Each column is linked to a Handicapping Object.
http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/BBSImages/PMTR/The%20Grid-0003.jpg


For those of you seeing the complexity level going up, rest assured that it is only going up for the programmer, not the user.

Special Note: If you are REALLY looking for The Simple Solution, skip the rest of this because it will not be stuff that you use.


Factors
In terms of linking back to the data, all factors are populated from The Master Factor List. (Note that this is not the same list that is in HSH. It is actually more extensive.) There are also Custom Factors, created by the user.


Introducing... Widgets
What's a "Widget?"

A Widget is a screen/system (written by the programmer) that supports a special task. For example, suppose you want to "do something" with speed ratings. More specifically, you want to take the last 6 speed ratings on dirt tracks in sprint races, sort them from highest to lowest, and create a factor that outputs as "1st-2nd-3rd-FrontHalf-RearHalf" (i.e. 1-2-3-4-5) into a Custom Factor slot.

There is a Widget that allows you to do this.

There are many kinds of Widgets. For example, there are Widgets for Automatic Paceline Selection, developing factors from the Earnings Box, and a bunch of others. Many Widgets come with an option to walk the manual-entry user through inputting the data in by hand.


Custom Widgets
In the future, when someone says, "I'd really like someone to program a system for me..." there will now be a relatively easy answer: A new Widget!

Suppose you want a system that looks at a whole bunch of different things and weights them together into a score. (Like an object except that the factors are somewhat complicated.)

You request for me to write you a widget that supports what you want and populates it from the data. (Yes, there would be a cost but it would be relatively small compared to hiring a programmer to write an entire piece of software for you.)

Widgets can be public (i.e. everyone gets them) or private (only available to in your installation).


So, this is why I will be a month late.

Happy Holidays to Everyone,
Dave Schwartz

PS: Emails will begin again next week. I have great news to share.

[Sinner369]

Dave........Have you thought of the price you would be charging for the new software?

[Dave Schwartz]

Costs:

$125 per year to use and for upgrades. Alternative is $450 one-time charge.

30-Day money back guarantee.

Data is about $9 per day from HDW ($132 maximum). Includes all tracks and results.

Also works without data (i.e. manual entry) for $25 per month.

[xtb]

Data is about $9 per day from HDW ($132 maximum). Includes all tracks and results.

Dave, is that $132 per month?

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, $132 per month for the data.

You can also download and pay by the day.

[Ghostrider5]

What do you get for the fee of $450?

[Dave Schwartz]

What do you get for the fee of $450?

The software and a lifetime of upgrades.

[Boulder]

Dave,

Why the $25.00 charge if the program you choose is manual?

[Dave Schwartz]

Why the $25.00 charge if the program you choose is manual?

The development cost on this software will be roughly $150,000 before it is out of beta. That cost must be recovered.

Developing the software to include a "dual path" - manual as well as download - has added about 35% to the cost of development.

[bcgreg]

Dave

I apologize if you have already answered this but will your program have the ability to import/export csv format files?

bcgreg

[Dave Schwartz]

I apologize if you have already answered this but will your program have the ability to import/export csv format files?

I would not rule out a BRIS export at some later date, but it will not contain a BRIS import.

The problem is that these files just cannot be monetized by the software developer. (In other words, we don't get paid.)

[KPMats10]

I thought the original concept was subscription basis only for the software and no charge for data files.

[thaskalos]

The software and a lifetime of upgrades.
How old are you, Dave?

I am asking because I want to approximate how long this "lifetime upgrade" might remain in effect.

[Dave Schwartz]

I thought the original concept was subscription basis only for the software and no charge for data files.

Sorry, but you have misunderstood. I have no access to data files that I can distribute.


The software comes in 2 flavors:

1. With data
2. Without data (i.e. manual entry)

[mikesal57]

My take....

Price-wise ...reasonable

Contents...Looks like alot of data structure than the original E1 E2 EP LP

Some questions I /we might have...

1) Any supporting video/documents on How to Use?

2) Will the weekend warrior have enough info/data stored to run a card?

3) pro's & cons to manual/auto formats

4) can you mix doing it manually and they go to auto & vice versa?

5) Most important....Will everyone get the same horse?

might be more..:)

Mike

auto means ...with data

[banacek]

The development cost on this software will be roughly $150,000 before it is out of beta. That cost must be recovered.

Developing the software to include a "dual path" - manual as well as download - has added about 35% to the cost of development.

The prices quoted seem quite reasonable.

But $150,000..wow..if that isn't a misprint, I hope you have some preorders!

[mikesal57]

The prices quoted seem quite reasonable.

But $150,000..wow..if that isn't a misprint, I hope you have some preorders!


Say 100 people buy it with a years worth of data...

there it is $150,000 +

[banacek]

Say 100 people buy it with a years worth of data...

there it is $150,000 +

That's not what Dave would get though..no idea what his cut would be.

[Dave Schwartz]

The truth of the matter is that handicapping software is like the orphan drug market. The research & development is all on the front end and there has to be a back end profit or else we cannot justify staying in business.

What's going to happen here is that this is going to be absolutely killer software. It will turn out to be affordable for most players.

Remember that the software will come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so if you don't like it, you just request a refund.

I hope to give it to a couple of users to play with the last week of this month and then a couple more in mid-January. By then it should be ready to handicap races with but it will not be ready for a full beta release until the end of January.

Probably a gold release by mid-March.


I fully expect that the development will continue for at least a year after the gold release as we listen to customer feedback.


There is an old saying: "Being a programmer means never having to say you're finished."


I will make sure that this product is just the best thing going.


Dave

[traveler]

The $150,000 becomes a function of what one values ones time at I would believe.

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, so at $200,000 per hour, this entire project should be finished in about 45 minutes.

Alas, the world does not think I am worth that much.

:bang:

[NorCalGreg]

My take....

Price-wise ...reasonable

Contents...Looks like alot of data structure than the original E1 E2 EP LP

Some questions I /we might have...

1) Any supporting video/documents on How to Use?

2) Will the weekend warrior have enough info/data stored to run a card?

3) pro's & cons to manual/auto formats

4) can you mix doing it manually and they go to auto & vice versa?

5) Most important....Will everyone get the same horse?

might be more..:)

Mike

auto means ...with data


Wow .....unless your acct has been hijacked--we're seeing a kinder, more reasonable mikesal. Glad the old mike is back :)

[mikesal57]

Wow .....unless your acct has been hijacked--we're seeing a kinder, more reasonable mikesal. Glad the old mike is back :)

Yeah....took my meds today
but looks like I'm on the "ignore list"

[plainolebill]

Has HDW ever considered selling data by the track/circuit? I only bet Socal other than some of the big race events a few times a year.

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah....took my meds today
but looks like I'm on the "ignore list"

Well, mike...if you aren't important enough for someone to even reach over & click "ignore" on you--why even get out of bed in the morning?

[Dave Schwartz]

Has HDW ever considered selling data by the track/circuit? I only bet Socal other than some of the big race events a few times a year.

Simple answer is "no."


Price-wise ...reasonable
I wish we could give it away but if we did, there would be no year two.


Contents...Looks like alot of data structure than the original E1 E2 EP LP

The data comes in FPS, MPH, Speed-Type Ratings, Simulated Pace, Energy Ratings, Times, and a couple of others that I have been researching. You don't get one of these, you get all of these and in the same race.

The idea is that you might want to use an energy-based approach at one Track-Surface-Distance and Simulated Pace at another.

It models them all (at the same time)!


Some questions I /we might have...
1) Any supporting video/documents on How to Use?
Yes.


2) Will the weekend warrior have enough info/data stored to run a card?

Probably not, but that is the plight of the weekend warrior. Certainly not as much as the every day downloader.

Truthfully, I cannot address as I have never been such.


3) pro's & cons to manual/auto formats
Auto Formats - are just logical approaches. There probably aren't 5 people on the planet that won't change them.


4) can you mix doing it manually and they go to auto & vice versa?

You can. In fact, if you're a 3-day per month player, you probably want to download a few days each month just to build up your database of pacelines to cut down your data entry time.


5) Most important....Will everyone get the same horse?

I do not see how that is possible.

[Dave Schwartz]

I was reading the "Horses to Watch" list.

Is it a worthwhile feature to ad to the new software?

What about some kind of Key Race list?


How would YOU like to see this implemented?

[Dan Montilion]

Dave. This is a copy and paste from a blog I did years ago. If one can some how computerize "the what produced a win" as opposed to just two winners from the KR. I would love to see that.

Most handicappers that are more than novices are aware of the key race method. Ask a handicapper what a key race is and he will likely say any race that produces two or more winners. That would be correct but the key race method has more significance as a handicapping tool. In Steve Davidowitz's classic handicapping book "Betting Thoroughbreds", Steve discussed how he devised this tool. What is incredible yet predictable is that most handicappers took only the "two winners, key race" discussion to heart. The key race chapter is worth re-reading for any handicapper. Lost on most handicappers is the fact that Steve was looking for what, if anything signaled a winning effort. In Steve's chapter he noted winners were showing improved speed on the turn. Over the years I have never been without my key race charts. Here are examples of the type of information handicappers will gather beyond the "two winner" angle.

Shippers

If your circuit has feeder tracks I would advise collecting those feeder track charts. Keeping key race charts will help in accessing the ability of shippers. However, the best use is to note what type of horses are shipping in and winning at the local circuit and what they have done prior to a local win. You may note that a majority of winners shipping in are of a certain age group or sex. This would indicate the feeder track has a superior population than the locals. This is exactly what I noticed in the early 80's in northern California with a two year old population from Longacres. It seemed the Washington shipping two year olds were simply a stronger group. As a side note, local newspaper handicappers (remember those?) were noting Longacres "shippers doing well", when only the two year olds held a decisive edge. This exercise will also note where shippers fit on the local class ladder.

They Did What?

Note what the next out winners are doing prior to a win. There are simply too many things to note here. Some I have noted; horses needing a route prior to moving to the grass for the first time, an abundance of first out winners at bottom level maiden claimers. Of course first timers can not be circled in their previous race. But you will note them in your chart work. Are winner stretching out or shortening up? Are they changing surfaces? What are the next out maiden winners doing to prepare for a win? This is where being real imaginative can pay off.

Running Style

The traditional use of the key race is two next out winners. I would argue that just one next out winner should be looked at . If you note a next out winner when thumbing back to your charts, be sure to note the running style of the next out winner vs. the horse being handicapped. If the styles are the same further research is on the horizon. If your handicapped horse is a pace type coming out of a race that he dueled with the next out winner. Note what level the next out winner won at as well as distance. Also note which was the pace survivor. If your horse held on better than a next out winner that went up in class at the same distance to win, well that sounds pretty good. Same as with off the pace types.

Traditional Key Race

Clearly there is a place in the handicappers arsenal for this approach. However, note next out winners distance, level and surface compared to each other and the horse you are handicapping. Suppose you find a race that produces three next out winners. You are looking at a pace horse coming out of the same race. Two of the winners are horses that closed and the other switched distance and dropped sharply in class. Perhaps this key race does not apply to the horse being handicapped.

[Dave Schwartz]

Thanks for your response and suggestions, Dan.

I have added it to my IDEAS PILE.

This could be an example of a Widget - one that allows the user to find races that have produced something. It is that user programmable something that makes the widget a cool tool.

[traveler]

The point is it doesn't matter what you value your time at, the projects time will take what it takes. What you make on it is a function of lots of factors which drive the consumer to buy or not.

The one time cost seems reasonable and HDW charges what they do. In the end, you could make $200,000 per hour of time invested or $1.98, depending of course on how far the horizon is.

It looks like a very nice piece of software.

[Dave Schwartz]

It looks like a very nice piece of software.

Thank you.

I have high hopes (and more than a little determination).

[Dave Schwartz]

I am thinking we should add scratched horses to the database.

If so, what categories of scratches would you be interested in?

Note: I am thinking that this would only be a factor that downloaders would be interested in. Am I wrong? (That is, too much data entry.)

[banacek]

Probably not part of your plans, but I was wondering if the software will have any record-keeping abilities - keeping track of bets.

[Dave Schwartz]

Probably not part of your plans, but I was wondering if the software will have any record-keeping abilities - keeping track of bets.

Probably not in the beta release, but absolutely.

Something similar to "Studies" in HSH but much less intimidating.

[Dave Schwartz]

Update to the updates.

I am making progress.

One of the difficult things about this software is that from the inception I decided to develop for several audiences:

1. The manual entry player.
2. The occasional downloader.
3. The every day downloader.
4. The HSH user who wants a different approach.

The theme for this software is "enter what you want" and "keep everything forever with little or no attention."

This is all a huge challenge.

Believe it or not, I have spent 2 programming months just getting the data in and putting it somewhere!


Other goals for the software:
Allow for speed ratings, pace ratings, velocity ratings (FPS), sheet-type ratings, etc.

User must have a great deal of control over everything from lengths-per-second, feet-per-length, and many others.

These adjustments must be available, globally, by track, by race or even by individual paceline.

Age
Maiden-to-Non-Maiden Penalty
Class Adjustment (i.e. earnings box, levels, etc.)
Daily/Race Variant (Think "I build my own variants")
open adjustment (for any reason)
Trip Adjustment
Running Path Adjustment
and more

All of these adjustments must be able to be modified for a particular race and stored for future use (or not, as chosen by the user).


THE PLAN AS OF NOW
The plan is that I will release the product to current HSH downloaders who are interested in trying it. From the very beginning it will extend what they have now but the handicapping style is far different.

When HDW is ready to handle the new billing then I will integrate that into the accounting system I have written and be able to distribute to the general public. I am expecting that to be some time in March.


If you are really interested in cutting edge software, then I suggest that you continue to post comments and suggestions on this forum. Questions like, "Will it do this?" or "Will it ever do that?" are just excellent for me because it helps me to understand what people really want.

It also helps me to understand what people do not want. That translates into things I can take off my to-do list, at least for the early releases.

For example, I was surprised that nobody had any interest in key races, so I did not make that a high priority. Also, there was almost no conversation about "Horse to Watch," and I was actually planning to build an entire "Handicapping Stable Management" system.

Trip Notes? Personal Race Notes? Personal Trainer comments? Jockey Ratings? Does anyone have interest?

[PhantomOnTour]

Dave,

In ANY software I'm considering buying, the ability to add my own notes (be it trip, race, whatever) and have them show up in the pp's is a must.

I currently use the outdated BRIS PP Generator, but the ability to add my own notes and figures is the main reason I still use it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Phantom,

Like you I view this as a necessity for "new-era" software.

Tell me this - Would you (for example) look at a trip note immediately after a race and want to do something like, "Note: to self: Next time this horse runs, expect a 5-length or better improvement." -- Is that something you'd have interest in?

[PhantomOnTour]

Phantom,

Like you I view this as a necessity for "new-era" software.

Tell me this - Would you (for example) look at a trip note immediately after a race and want to do something like, "Note: to self: Next time this horse runs, expect a 5-length or better improvement." -- Is that something you'd have interest in?
Yes, and not to beat you over the head with BRIS PP Gen stuff (but it's the only software I've ever used)...you can input RACE NOTES and HORSE NOTES.

In the RACE notes I have things like the running style of the first 3 finishers and a small note as to the overall flow...pace meltdown, top two runners came wide, etc etc etc
And ofcourse the HORSE notes are about individual runners...including trip and possible projections for next time

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, and not to beat you over the head with BRIS PP Gen stuff (but it's the only software I've ever used)...you can input RACE NOTES and HORSE NOTES.

In the RACE notes I have things like the running style of the first 3 finishers and a small note as to the overall flow...pace meltdown, top two runners came wide, etc etc etc
And ofcourse the HORSE notes are about individual runners...including trip and possible projections for next time

That's outstanding information!

If you've got a screenshot that would be great.

What I envision is comments of all types integrated together in one place, as well as in the applicable places. For example: When you make a comment about a chart, it gets linked to the paceline (when the horse runs back), the race itself, and, of course, the horse.

Hmm... What would you think about the system remember YOUR comments? That is, so you could have a repository for common comments and codes?

I assume that you also watch replays. If so, can you describe the system you use to record those comments? Can you get what I am trying to accomplish? By linking it all together, your chart comments would show up in future pacelines as well as paceline comments linking back to the charts.

Lastly... when it comes to charts, does some kind of SIMPLE graphical running of the race serve any purpose? Note that I am not talking about little horses running around the screen with legs moving and jockeys whipping. I mean something SIMPLE.

If you like THAT idea, (and I am really reaching here in terms of what is outside the current scope of this software) what about inserting comments into a POINT IN THE CHART?

[PhantomOnTour]

All of the above mentioned notes show up under the pp lines also.

It's a really nifty program, and it's free.
You may wanna download it just for the purpose of gleaning some ideas.

The RACE notes appear anytime that race appears in a runners' future pp's and the HORSE notes appear (obviously) every time that particular horse runs again.
So, under each running line will be a line of personal notes about that horse and that race.
It's a lot of work with tons of data input, but the finished product paints a nice picture.

As far as the charts go - I'm fine with them the way they are.

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay, so point of diminishing returns on that extra effort.

Already had the notes as you described in the plan.

BTW, do you use a horses-to-watch list as well?

[PhantomOnTour]

Okay, so point of diminishing returns on that extra effort.

Already had the notes as you described in the plan.

BTW, do you use a horses-to-watch list as well?
No - I follow NY racing only and 95% of my play is at their big three tracks.
If a runner I like races back in NY I will notice it from my notes and all the other jazz.
Sure I've missed a shipper to Prx or Mth or Maryland, but NY shippers tend to get bet big at those locales.