View Full Version : Dime Superfecta Testing
Ray2000
12-03-2015, 07:14 AM
Trying to eliminate some races with too many unknowns.
Might be a mistake, those Maidens, Jumpers is where the better prices are found.
Track Race 10¢ Key Box Superfecta
DTN 4 "1/4,2,8,5"
DTN 5 "4/6,7,9,2"
DTN 8 "2/8,4,1,5,6"
DTN 10 "1/5,9,7,4,3"
DTN 11 "7/4,5,9,3"
FHLD 4 "1/4,2,5"
FHLD 10 "1/2,8,3,6"
MR 2 "1/3,4,7,5"
MR 4 "3/1,8,4,5"
MR 7 "5/3,6,2"
MR 10 "1/4,6,5,2"
Cost $120.00
Ray2000
12-04-2015, 05:49 AM
Not good, Monti collects didn't cover ticket costs.
DTN R5....$48.78
MR R2......$2.25
MR R4 .....$2.67
MR R10.... $8.03
Bet.........$120
Return ...$61.73
3 day run..Still up $55.88 so it's a go for Friday.
Track Race Super Keybox Cost
BMLP 1 "9/3,5,8,10" $9.60
BMLP 6 "5/7,3,4" $2.40
BMLP 7 "10/4,8,2,3" $9.60
BMLP 8 "6/7,3,1,2" $9.60
DTN 3 "9/1,7,3,5" $9.60
DTN 4 "1/5,2,6,3" $9.60
DTN 6 "3/2,8,6,4" $9.60
DTN 7 "2/6,9,8,4,5" $24.00
DTN 11 "2/6,3,1,4" $9.60
DTN 12 "9/2,4,1,5" $9.60
DTN 13 "6/7,4,1,2" $9.60
DTN 14 "4/3,1,5" $2.40
FHLD 4 "2/7,1,8,4" $9.60
FHLD 11 "4/2,7,6,3" $9.60
BigM 5 "1/8,5,9,10,6" $24.00
BigM 6 "3/9,5,8" $2.40
BigM 9 "4/8,2,1,5,6" $24.00
BigM 11 "10/4,2,7,6,5" $24.00
NFLD 1 "4/1,5,3" $2.40
NFLD 2 "1/3,4,6,5" $9.60
NFLD 5 "1/4,5,3" $2.40
NFLD 6 "1/4,2,5,3" $9.60
NFLD 7 "4/3,1,6,2" $9.60
NFLD 9 "4/1,9,7,3,5" $24.00
NFLD 10 "3/5,9,4,2" $9.60
NFLD 11 "1/5,2,4,3" $9.60
NFLD 12 "2/1,8,4,3,9" $24.00
NFLD 14 "3/1,4,5" $2.40
NFLD 15 "9/6,5,8,4" $9.60
$321.60
ReplayRandall
12-04-2015, 01:44 PM
Track Race Super Keybox Cost
DTN 7 "2/6,9,8,4,5" $24.00
BigM 5 "1/8,5,9,10,6" $24.00
BigM 9 "4/8,2,1,5,6" $24.00
BigM 11 "10/4,2,7,6,5" $24.00
NFLD 9 "4/1,9,7,3,5" $24.00
NFLD 12 "2/1,8,4,3,9" $24.00
BMLP 6 "5/7,3,4" $2.40
DTN 14 "4/3,1,5" $2.40
BigM 6 "3/9,5,8" $2.40
NFLD 1 "4/1,5,3" $2.40
NFLD 5 "1/4,5,3" $2.40
NFLD 14 "3/1,4,5" $2.40
BMLP 1 "9/3,5,8,10" $9.60
BMLP 7 "10/4,8,2,3" $9.60
BMLP 8 "6/7,3,1,2" $9.60
DTN 3 "9/1,7,3,5" $9.60
DTN 4 "1/5,2,6,3" $9.60
DTN 6 "3/2,8,6,4" $9.60
DTN 11 "2/6,3,1,4" $9.60
DTN 12 "9/2,4,1,5" $9.60
DTN 13 "6/7,4,1,2" $9.60
FHLD 4 "2/7,1,8,4" $9.60
FHLD 11 "4/2,7,6,3" $9.60
NFLD 2 "1/3,4,6,5" $9.60
NFLD 6 "1/4,2,5,3" $9.60
NFLD 7 "4/3,1,6,2" $9.60
NFLD 10 "3/5,9,4,2" $9.60
NFLD 11 "1/5,2,4,3" $9.60
NFLD 15 "9/6,5,8,4" $9.60
$321.60[/code]
Ray, as you can see from above, I've re-grouped your plays by bet totals. If possible, could you give results for each bet grouping? I want to see the risk/reward ratio, hit rates and pay-offs for each.....Thanks, and Good Luck.
Ray2000
12-04-2015, 06:10 PM
ReplayRandall
I can do that, so far on the first 2 days (Key boxing) it stands:
.............Races / Hits / Return
Key w/ 3 others...4 / 2 / 23.25
Key w/ 4 others...6 / 3 / 153.70
Key w/ 5 others...2 / 0 / 0
Let's see what happens.
Ray2000
12-05-2015, 06:07 AM
Had some nice poppers get on the tickets but Key Pick off the board.
Return
BMLP 6 "5/7,3,4" 2.40
DTN 14 "4/3,1,5" 2.40
M 6 "3/9,5,8" 2.40
NFLD 1 "4/1,5,3" 2.40
NFLD 5 "1/4,5,3" 2.40 11.47
NFLD 14 "3/1,4,5" 2.40 6.62
BMLP 1 "9/3,5,8,10" 9.60
BMLP 7 "10/4,8,2,3" 9.60
BMLP 8 "6/7,3,1,2" 9.60
DTN 3 "9/1,7,3,5" 9.60
DTN 4 "1/5,2,6,3" 9.60
DTN 6 "3/2,8,6,4" 9.60
DTN 11 "2/6,3,1,4" 9.60
DTN 12 "9/2,4,1,5" 9.60
DTN 13 "6/7,4,1,2" 9.60
FHLD 4 "2/7,1,8,4" 9.60 14.56
FHLD 11 "4/2,7,6,3" 9.60
NFLD 2 "1/3,4,6,5" 9.60 9.42
NFLD 6 "1/4,2,5,3" 9.60
NFLD 7 "4/3,1,6,2" 9.60
NFLD 10 "3/5,9,4,2" 9.60
NFLD 11 "1/5,2,4,3" 9.60 29.13
NFLD 12 "2/1,8,4,3,9" 9.60 scr8
NFLD 15 "9/6,5,8,4" 9.60
DTN 7 "2/6,9,8,4,5" 24.00 298.44
M 5 "1/8,5,9,10,6" 24.00
M 9 "4/8,2,1,5,6" 24.00
M 11 "10/4,2,7,6,5" 24.00
NFLD 9 "4/1,9,7,3,5" 24.00
307.20 369.64
net 3 day totals +124.19
.............Races / Hits / Return / on Bet
Key w/ 3 others...10 / 4 / 41.34 / 24.00
Key w/ 4 others...24 / 6 / 206.81 / 230.40
Key w/ 5 others...7 / 1 / 298.44 / 168.00
Saturday 12/5
BMLP 1 "10/3,7,9,5" 9.60
BMLP 3 "7/3,4,6,1" 9.60
BMLP 4 "6/3,10,2" 2.40
BMLP 5 "9/4,2,3" 2.40
BMLP 8 "9/1,5,6,3" 9.60
BMLP 11 "6/7,8,4,3,10" 24.00
CALX 7 "4/5,2,8" 2.40
DTN 2 "5/1,2,4" 2.40
DTN 3 "5/1,9,8,4" 9.60
DTN 6 "4/8,1,5,3" 9.60
DTN 7 "2/1,3,5" 2.40
DTN 8 "1/5,4,3" 2.40
DTN 9 "1/6,4,2,5" 9.60
DTN 11 "7/2,9,8,1,6" 24.00
DTN 12 "8/1,2,9,3" 9.60
DTN 13 "2/6,3,1" 2.40
DTN 14 "4/3,7,8,6" 9.60
FHLD 1 "5/1,4,8,2" 9.60
FHLD 2 "7/2,3,8,1" 9.60
FHLD 3 "6/3,1,4" 2.40
FHLD 4 "8/3,1,6,2,4" 24.00
FHLD 6 "4/8,1,7,2,3" 24.00
FHLD 7 "2/8,4,1" 2.40
FHLD 9 "5/6,4,1,2" 9.60
FHLD 10 "2/1,5,6" 2.40
FHLD 11 "1/2,5,7" 2.40
FHLD 12 "1/7,3,2,6" 9.60
BigM 2 "4/2,7,8,6" 9.60
BigM 9 "9/5,10,7,4" 9.60
BigM 11 "3/4,5,6" 2.40
BigM 13 "2/7,5,10,9" 9.60
268.80 cost
Ray2000
12-06-2015, 05:37 AM
$254 bet, $398.54 return
Hits, Balmoral saves the night...
FHLD...R7.....$5.20
DTN....R6....$10.04
DTN....R9....$82.09
BMLP...R8...$301.21
net 4 day totals +268
.....................Races / Hits / Return / on Bet
Key w/ 3 others...24 / 5 / 46.54 / 57.60
Key w/ 4 others...37 / 9 / 600.15 / 355.20
Key w/ 5 others...11 / 1 / 298.44 / 264.00
Rebates are super on Supers compared to Pick 4s where Reduced TakeOut Promos means reduced rebates...
Plays for Sunday 12/6
CALX 4 "8/1,6,3" $2.40
CALX 7 "5/4,1,2" $2.40
NFLD 2 "2/7,4,3,5" $9.60
NFLD 4 "2/7,3,6,5" $9.60
NFLD 6 "2/4,5,6,7" $9.60
NFLD 7 "9/5,2,4" $2.40
NFLD 10 "8/7,4,1,6" $9.60
NFLD 11 "2/7,4,5,6" $9.60
NFLD 12 "3/2,7,1,5" $9.60
NFLD 14 "4/3,2,6,1" $9.60
NFLD 15 "6/2,5,1" $2.40
$76.80
Ray2000
12-06-2015, 07:34 PM
Aah com'on
Northfield R4, I had a key box super 2 w/ 7365
The 2, with Ronnie Wrenn Jr had a 10 length lead at the 3/4 and I get nothing.
Race 4 ONE MILE Dirt
Purse: $5000.00
# Name Jockey/Driver Win Place Show
5 Driven to Succeed Elliott Deaton ............70.80 24.20 62.80
3 Rountuit Bluegrass Aaron Merriman ................ 5.20 12.60
7 Rock N Roll Star Jason Merriman ........................... 28.60
Bet Type Runners Pay Out
$1 Exacta 5/3 156.80
$1 Trifecta 5/3/7 1687.40
$1 Superfecta 5/3/7/6 12,575.60 :bang: :bang: :bang:
Bridge jumper had 7 grand to show on him.
MONEY
12-06-2015, 11:13 PM
$1 Superfecta 5/3/7/6 12,575.60 :bang: :bang: :bang:
[/I]
Just 2 things.
#1. Stop banging you head against those bricks, it's not good for you. :D
If the #2 would have finished 1st the super would have been paltry, if it would have held on for 2nd or 3rd, you might have gotten between $200 & 300 dollars for your dime. :ThmbUp:
#2. You already know this, but I'm going to post it anyway.
The half mile tracks are money sucking black holes, you should only bet them if you have cash that you don't want.
GOOD LUCK ;)
Ray2000
12-07-2015, 05:38 AM
$74 bet, $11.45 return
1 Hit
NFLD R 14 $11.45
net 4 day totals +205
...............Races / Hits / Return / on Bet
Key w/ 3 others...26 / 5 / 46.54 / 62.40
Key w/ 4 others...44 / 10 / 611.60 / 422.40
Key w/ 5 others...11 / 1 / 298.44 / 264.00
Still on +side, so Plays for Monday 12/7
DTN 4 "8/6,2,7,1,5" $24.00
DTN 5 "1/3,2,6,5" $9.60
DTN 6 "5/9,1,6,3" $9.60
DTN 7 "7/2,6,4,3" $9.60
DTN 8 "7/2,5,6,3" $9.60
DTN 9 "1/3,5,4" $2.40
DTN 11 "7/4,6,9,5" $9.60
DTN 13 "6/5,3,4" $2.40
MR 1 "2/4,1,7,5,6" $24.00
MR 3 "5/4,1,2" $2.40
MR 4 "2/5,4,6,1" $9.60
MR 6 "3/6,5,4,2" $9.60
MR 7 "3/2,5,4" $2.40
MR 8 "5/1,4,6" $2.40
MR 10 "3/6,8,2,5" $9.60
MR 11 "2/3,5,4,1" $9.60
NFLD 1 "3/2,6,8,1" $9.60
NFLD 2 "9/8,6,4,5,1" $24.00
NFLD 5 "2/1,5,8,3" $9.60
NFLD 7 "2/8,3,4,5" $9.60
NFLD 9 "6/3,2,8,4" $9.60
NFLD 10 "7/8,9,5" $2.40
NFLD 11 "1/3,6,5,2" $9.60
NFLD 12 "1/6,2,9,4" $9.60
NFLD 14 "5/3,2,4,6" $9.60
NFLD 15 "2/4,3,9" $2.40
$242.40
Ray2000
12-08-2015, 05:53 AM
Bummer, Yesterday lost $71
4 Hits
MR R4 $9.83
MR R11 $2.37
NFLD R7 $5.87
NFLD R11 $98.06
6 day totals
Races Hits Bet Return Type Box
34 5 81.60 46.54 Key w/3
59 14 566.40 728.20 Key w/4
12 1 288.00 298.44 Key w/5
Totals 936.00 1073.18 $137.18 net
Tuesday 12/8
MR 2 "3/1,8,2,5" 9.60
MR 3 "8/1,5,2,3" 9.60
MR 4 "2/4,1,8,5" 9.60
MR 6 "5/8,6,2,1,3" 24.00
MR 7 "6/2,1,5,3" 9.60
MR 8 "4/7,1,6,5" 9.60
MR 9 "6/8,2,4,3,5" 24.00
MR 10 "3/7,6,8,2" 9.60
NFLD 1 "5/2,4,3" 2.40
NFLD 4 "2/3,9,1,5,6" 24.00
NFLD 5 "1/8,2,6,5" 9.60
NFLD 6 "1/4,6,2,5" 9.60
NFLD 7 "2/9,4,6,3" 9.60
NFLD 15 "5/7,4,2,1" 9.60
170.00
Ray2000
12-09-2015, 05:57 AM
Yesterday Loss $-32
3 Hits
MR R2 $29.70
MR R6 $87.40
NFLD R5 $21.14
7 day totals
Races Hits Bet Return
35 5 84 47 Key with 3
69 16 662 779 Key with 4
15 2 360 386 Key with 5
Totals $1,106 $1,211 +$105 net
Weds 12/9 Flammy bets are 20¢ minimums
DTN 2 "1/6,5,2,3" $9.60
DTN 8 "9/6,2,8,5" $9.60
DTN 9 "7/1,2,8,3,4" $24.00
DTN 10 "4/1,6,7,2" $9.60
DTN 11 "6/2,4,5" $2.40
FLMD 5 "4/6,8,5,9" $19.20
FLMD 8 "5/2,1,6,3" $19.20
FLMD 10 "3/5,2,7,4" $19.20
MR 1 "8/5,7,4,3,1" $24.00
MR 3 "4/2,5,7,3" $9.60
MR 5 "1/5,4,7,2" $9.60
MR 6 "6/1,2,3" $2.40
MR 7 "2/5,3,6,4" $9.60
MR 9 "1/4,2,6" $2.40
MR 10 "5/2,1,6,4" $9.60
MR 11 "7/5,1,6,4,3" $24.00
NFLD 6 "2/8,6,1,4,5" $24.00
NFLD 9 "2/8,5,1,4" $9.60
NFLD 11 "5/1,2,9" $2.40
NFLD 12 "7/1,6,5,2" $9.60
NFLD 15 "2/7,6,8,9" $9.60
$259
Ray2000
12-10-2015, 06:55 AM
Yesterday Loss $-92
Wednesday 9 Hits
DTN R10 47.67
FLMD R8 31.64
NFLD R15 23.50
FLMD R10 17.59
DTN R2 12.50
NFLD R9 10.99
NFLD R6 8.41
MR R3 4.07
MR R10 3.52
8 day totals
Races Hits Bet Return
40 5 96 47 Key with 3
81 24 806 931 Key with 4
19 3 456 394 Key with 5
Totals $1,358 $1,371 $13 net
Thursday
DTN 3 "6/7,8,3,4,1" 24.00
DTN 6 "4/3,6,2" 2.40
DTN 7 "7/5,4,2" 2.40
DTN 8 "5/1,6,8,4" 9.60
DTN 9 "1/4,6,5,3" 9.60
DTN 10 "8/1,3,4,6" 9.60
DTN 11 "7/6,2,3,1" 9.60
FHLD 4 "1/8,5,3,2,4" 24.00
FHLD 10 "2/4,1,5" 2.40
MR 2 "5/6,4,2,3" 9.60
MR 7 "4/5,3,2" 2.40
MR 10 "5/4,7,1,3,2" 24.00
WDB 4 "7/2,6,3,1" 19.20
WDB 8 "3/1,6,10,5" 19.20
WDB 9 "9/1,2,8,4" 19.20
WDB 10 "1/7,8,9,5" 19.20
206.40
I'm re-running all of year 2015 dime/twenty cent supers so this will be final week of these plays.
I'll put up the breakdown of results later but too much depends on the "BIG HIT"
So far, on 6500 races looks like the 4 box has the best ROI.
mrroyboy
12-11-2015, 02:35 PM
OK so one with 4 costs $9.60? But the key horse has to win right?
ReplayRandall
12-11-2015, 02:49 PM
OK so one with 4 costs $9.60? But the key horse has to win right?
The total cost is $9.60 for a dime Super-Key:
Example- 1 horse is key to four horses
1-2345-2345-2345= $2.40
2345-1-2345-2345= $2.40
2345-2345-1-2345= $2.40
2345-2345-2345-1= $2.40
mrroyboy
12-11-2015, 03:10 PM
Thank you Randy
Ray2000
12-12-2015, 09:21 AM
Last post in this test.
After re-running the robot picks for year 2015 on races with 10¢ or 20¢ supers,
Key boxing appears to be a losing approach. Scratches were counted as lost bets.
Also, some hits were probably on races with few winning tickets so returns would be lower if actually bet.
The decision on how many horses to key on was tied to how many horses the robot "thought" were contenders.
Races Hit% Collect On cost ROI
key w/3 2452 15% 6,139 6,574 0.93
key w/4 5540 22% 43,919 61,594 0.71
key w/5 1714 30% 42,041 49,392 0.85
key w/6 127 32% 11,560 8,304 1.39 includes a $5,935 hit
all 9834 22% $103,659 $125,863 0.82
Saturday plays key box w/3 is same as full 4horse box
BMLP 2 "6/7,4,5" 2.40
BMLP 6 "2/8,4,9" 2.40
BMLP 10 "9/8,3,6" 2.40
CALX 7 "8/5,4,3" 2.40
CALX 11 "7/6,3,1" 2.40
DTN 4 "4/1,5,8" 2.40
DTN 5 "8/1,5,4" 2.40
DTN 10 "2/7,1,4" 2.40
FHLD 2 "6/5,4,2" 2.40
FHLD 7 "6/2,5,3" 2.40
FHLD 9 "4/6,3,1" 2.40
FLMD 3 "1/8,6,7" 4.80
FLMD 8 "5/1,9,8" 4.80
M 11 "10/7,5,2" 2.40
WDB 3 "6/5,7,3" 4.80
WDB 5 "4/3,5,7" 4.80
WDB 6 "6/1,8,3" 4.80
WDB 9 "8/9,3,7" 4.80
57.60
Good Luck All
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