Top Horse Analytics: 12/03/2015 AQU Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: AQU, GP, TAM
THA Suspended Tracks: SA
THA Inactive Tracks: BEL, CD, DMR, GPW, KEE, OP, SAR

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.11.30a)

Race Cancellations (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)

Race Results
Full Charts (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
THA Race Results (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

12/03/15, AQU, Race 1, 12.20 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $50,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: .Resourceful [3/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gorham Michael E. JSEL
095.3607 :4: Here Sir [4-1] Carmouche K / Martin Carlos F.
095.2444 :2: Andrew's Got Zip [8-1] Arroyo A S / Schosberg Richard E. TW
095.0306 :3: Norm the Giant [6-1] Cancel E / Ryerson James T. FC
094.1814 5 Little Distorted [10-1] Franco M / Lynch Brian A.

12/03/15, AQU, Race 2, 12.50 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: .Five On a Dime [8/5] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle SFELC
096.8669 :3: Stupefaction [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Motion H. Graham J
096.2405 :11: Dreams to Reality [6-1] Franco M / Dilger Michael T
095.3116 :8: Ice Palace [8-1] Cruz A / Cannizzo David A.
094.9437 9 Causeway Cutie [20-1] Davis K / Terracciano Neal W
094.5473 1 Rain in Spain [20-1] Arroyo A S / Kimmel John C.
*Scratch* 7 Grey En Blue [30-1] Hernandez H / Contessa Gary C.
*Scratch* 6 Orzo [2-1] Cancel E / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 5 Love for Scarlett [15-1] Felix. Jr. J M / Pino Michael V.
*Scratch* 4 Grace Is Ready [10-1] Carmouche K / Cooney Susan S.
*Scratch* 10 Not a Secret [4-1] Cruz A / Figgins. III Ollie L.

12/03/15, AQU, Race 3, 1.20 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Missy Bay [7/2] Davis D / Schettino Dominick TSFW
099.0695 :3: Is She Hot [8/5] Gomez K / Morley Thomas EL
097.1085 :1: Kelly's Prize [4-1] Cancel E / Sciacca Gary
096.9875 :5: Cotton Pickin [10-1] Hernandez H / Grusmark Karl M. J
096.9669 4 Lady Gracenote [3-1] Davis J A / Chatterpaul Naipaul C
093.0461 2 Spa Town Parade [30-1] Davis K / Jones Eduardo E.

12/03/15, AQU, Race 4, 1.50 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Formulate [8/5] Unknown Rider / Brown Chad C. L
099.9996 :1: .Extinct Charm [5/2] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. JFEC
099.8406 :11: Montauk Man [8-1] Arroyo A S / Kimmel John C. S
099.6101 :3: Cyber Security [2-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. T
096.0994 10 Uncle Gio [8-1] Carmouche K / Adsit Abigail C.
095.9852 8 Crafty Colonel [8-1] Davis D / Schettino Dominick
095.6812 7 How's Your Sugar [6-1] Ortiz J L / Brown Bruce R.
095.5406 9 Front Nine [15-1] Cruz A / Duggan David P.
095.4804 6 Silent Glory [10-1] Franco M / Contessa Gary C. W
094.9423 2 Sky High Skyler [15-1] Cancel E / Cannizzo David A.
*Scratch* 5 Girine [15-1] Castellano. Jr. A / Thompson J. Willard

12/03/15, AQU, Race 5, 2.20 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Starship Pleasant [2-1] Ortiz J L / Servis Jason SEL
099.3242 :3: Franky and Jane [8-1] Hernandez H / Englehart Jeremiah C. TFW
098.1730 :1: Da Wildcat Girl [5-1] Davis D / Imperio Joseph
097.4013 :5: Liberty Fuze [6-1] Davis J A / Terracciano Neal
097.2567 2 Bonita Luna [4-1] Franco M / Brown Bruce R. C
096.2416 4 Get Gorgeous [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Donk David G. J

12/03/15, AQU, Race 6, 2.50 ET
Race is off turf and has been calculated as a dirt race
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :11: .Khaleesi Kat [2-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. SC
098.1436 :5: Weekend Score [4-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. J
097.7867 :3: Battle Axe [20-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Ness Jamie T
097.2111 :9: Barrel of Dreams [10-1] DeCarlo C P / Baker Charlton W
096.9255 12 Smilingsundae [8-1] Ortiz J L / Maker Michael J.
096.4310 15 Roman Reign [7/2] Cancel E / Pugh Peter D. FE
096.0302 13 Aesthetique [12-1] Unknown Rider / Linder. Jr. Louis C.
095.6169 14 Legally Bay [4-1] Carmouche K / Coffey Marialice
094.7696 6 Saratiago [20-1] Silvera R / Kelly Patrick J.
094.5882 1 Andromeda's Risk [50-1] Luzzi M J / Brown Bruce R.
094.4478 10 Resolutely [30-1] Garcia W A / Milne Joan L
*Scratch* 8 Upstate Bird [20-1] Hernandez H / Jacobson David
*Scratch* 7 Kicken Livi [15-1] Davis D / Englehart Jeremiah C.
*Scratch* 4 Weather Girl [5-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Asmussen Steven M.
*Scratch* 2 Ten Penny Princess [8-1] Franco M / Brown Bruce R.

12/03/15, AQU, Race 7, 3.20 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Eighty Three [9/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Jacobson David JTSFEC
097.2464 :2: Swell [5/2] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
096.9752 :7: Roman Revival [5-1] Velasquez C H / Toscano. Jr. John T. L
095.6677 :8: Proletariat [12-1] Cruz A / Brown Bruce R.
095.2182 1 Baby Snacks [12-1] Saez G / Sciacca Gary W
094.4154 3 G R's Giant [12-1] Worrie A S / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.
093.8983 5 Mello Groove [10-1] DeCarlo C P / Huston Rory K.
*Scratch* 4 Thnxtomyuncle [8-1] Arroyo A S / Sciacca Gary

12/03/15, AQU, Race 8, 3.50 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: .Beating Heart Baby [3-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle E
099.5869 :1: Women Win [5/2] Alvarado J / Hushion Michael E.
099.5089 :9: My Super Nova [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Weaver George J
099.4906 :6: Golden Gem [5-1] Castellano J / Violette. Jr. Richard S
098.2973 8 Spuntastic [12-1] Velasquez C H / McLaughlin Kiaran P. T
097.4255 11 Even Bette [10-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N. FC
097.2376 7 Sonora [15-1] Hernandez H / Shivmangal Doodnauth
096.3145 4 Shangala [15-1] Arroyo A S / Breed Debra A. L
094.3717 5 Geraldine [20-1] Trujillo E / Trombetta Michael J. W
*Scratch* 3 Moondance Joy [15-1] Cancel E / Albertrani Thomas
*Scratch* 2 Esther the Queen [30-1] Franco M / Esler Nicholas

12/03/15, AQU, Race 9, 4.20 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Madame Maybry [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Weaver George FEWL
099.8495 :12: .Our Whim [4-1] Ortiz J L / Asmussen Steven M.
099.2974 :6: A Little Extra [6-1] Gomez K / Brown Bruce R. S
098.8031 :9: You Lucky Dog [7/2] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. J
097.8642 7 Princess Alisha [8-1] Hernandez H / Ibrahim Emron C
094.8018 8 For Later [10-1] Velasquez C H / Morley Thomas
094.6593 10 Quick Hit Fever [15-1] Remedio M / Velazquez Daniel
094.3566 3 Punch It [12-1] Carmouche K / Quartarolo Anthony T.
094.3021 4 Freckle de Freck [20-1] Trujillo E / Hertler John O.
094.2075 1 Reyana Dream [30-1] Davis D / Persaud Randi
094.0128 11 Queen of Castle [50-1] Silvera R / Stoklosa Richard L. T
092.1927 5 Night Night Kitty [50-1] Saez G / Mazza Joseph W.
*Scratch* 1a Blanchfleur [30-1] Davis K / Persaud Randi

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.15.11.30a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at AQU is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

12/03/15, AQU, Race 1, 12:20 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $50,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: .Resourceful [3/5 * ] JSEL 2nd - 2.50 2.10
095.3607 :4: Here Sir [4-1] 3rd - 2.10
095.2444 :2: Andrew's Got Zip [8-1] TW 4th
095.0306 :3: Norm the Giant [6-1] FC
094.1814 5 Little Distorted [10-1] 1st - 20.40 6.80 3.00

12/03/15, AQU, Race 2, 12:50 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: .Five On a Dime [8/5 * ] SFELC 3rd - 2.10
096.8669 :3: Stupefaction [5/2] J 2nd - 3.90 2.30
096.2405 :11: Dreams to Reality [6-1] T 1st - 8.00 3.80 2.30
095.3116 :8: Ice Palace [8-1] 4th
094.9437 9 Causeway Cutie [20-1] W
094.5473 1 Rain in Spain [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Grey En Blue [30-1]
*Scratch* 6 Orzo [2-1]
*Scratch* 5 Love for Scarlett [15-1]
*Scratch* 4 Grace Is Ready [10-1]
*Scratch* 10 Not a Secret [4-1]

12/03/15, AQU, Race 3, 1:20 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.02 CLAIMING. Purse $20,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Missy Bay [7/2] TSFW 3rd to 5th
099.0695 :3: Is She Hot [8/5 * ] EL 2nd - 3.50 2.30
097.1085 :1: Kelly's Prize [4-1]
096.9875 :5: Cotton Pickin [10-1] J 1st - 14.00 5.60 3.30
096.9669 4 Lady Gracenote [3-1] C 3rd - 2.90
093.0461 2 Spa Town Parade [30-1] 4th

12/03/15, AQU, Race 4, 1:50 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Formulate [8/5] L 3rd - 3.80
099.9996 :1: .Extinct Charm [5/2 * ] JFEC 1st - 7.20 3.70 2.40
099.8406 :11: Montauk Man [8-1] S
099.6101 :3: Cyber Security [2-1] T 2nd - 4.10 2.80
096.0994 10 Uncle Gio [8-1]
095.9852 8 Crafty Colonel [8-1]
095.6812 7 How's Your Sugar [6-1]
095.5406 9 Front Nine [15-1]
095.4804 6 Silent Glory [10-1] W 4th
094.9423 2 Sky High Skyler [15-1]
*Scratch* 5 Girine [15-1]

12/03/15, AQU, Race 5, 2:20 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Starship Pleasant [2-1 * ] SEL 3rd - 2.50
099.3242 :3: Franky and Jane [8-1] TFW 2nd - 6.10 3.20
098.1730 :1: Da Wildcat Girl [5-1]
097.4013 :5: Liberty Fuze [6-1] 1st - 17.80 8.30 4.30
097.2567 2 Bonita Luna [4-1] C
096.2416 4 Get Gorgeous [3-1] J 4th

12/03/15, AQU, Race 6, 2:50 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.40.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :11: .Khaleesi Kat [2-1 * ] SC 10th to 6th
098.1436 :5: Weekend Score [4-1] J
097.7867 :3: Battle Axe [20-1] T
097.2111 :9: Barrel of Dreams [10-1] W 2nd - 14.40 8.60
096.9255 12 Smilingsundae [8-1]
096.4310 15 Roman Reign [7/2] FE 4th
096.0302 13 Aesthetique [12-1]
095.6169 14 Legally Bay [4-1] 1st - 16.00 9.20 5.10
094.7696 6 Saratiago [20-1] 3rd - 4.40
094.5882 1 Andromeda's Risk [50-1]
094.4478 10 Resolutely [30-1] L
*Scratch* 8 Upstate Bird [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Kicken Livi [15-1]
*Scratch* 4 Weather Girl [5-1]
*Scratch* 2 Ten Penny Princess [8-1]

12/03/15, AQU, Race 7, 3:20 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: .Eighty Three [9/5 * ] JTSFEC 1st - 4.10 2.70 2.20
097.2464 :2: Swell [5/2] 2nd - 3.80 2.80 $2 Ex 17.40
096.9752 :7: Roman Revival [5-1] L 3rd - 2.50 $2 Tri 39.00
095.6677 :8: Proletariat [12-1]
095.2182 1 Baby Snacks [12-1] W
094.4154 3 G R's Giant [12-1]
093.8983 5 Mello Groove [10-1] 4th
*Scratch* 4 Thnxtomyuncle [8-1]

12/03/15, AQU, Race 8, 3:50 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 ALLOWANCE. Purse $57,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: .Beating Heart Baby [3-1] E 6th to 7th
099.5869 :1: Women Win [5/2 * ] 2nd - 3.80 3.00
099.5089 :9: My Super Nova [6-1] J
099.4906 :6: Golden Gem [5-1] S
098.2973 8 Spuntastic [12-1] T 4th
097.4255 11 Even Bette [10-1] FC 3rd - 4.90
097.2376 7 Sonora [15-1]
096.3145 4 Shangala [15-1] L 1st - 57.00 15.20 7.90
094.3717 5 Geraldine [20-1] W
*Scratch* 3 Moondance Joy [15-1]
*Scratch* 2 Esther the Queen [30-1]

12/03/15, AQU, Race 9, 4:20 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $31,000.
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Madame Maybry [3-1 * ] FEWL 8th to 6th
099.8495 :12: .Our Whim [4-1] 1st - 17.80 10.00 6.00
099.2974 :6: A Little Extra [6-1] S
098.8031 :9: You Lucky Dog [7/2] J
097.8642 7 Princess Alisha [8-1] C 3rd - 4.40
094.8018 8 For Later [10-1] 4th
094.6593 10 Quick Hit Fever [15-1] 2nd - 22.20 14.40
094.3566 3 Punch It [12-1]
094.3021 4 Freckle de Freck [20-1]
094.2075 1 Reyana Dream [30-1]
094.0128 11 Queen of Castle [50-1] T
092.1927 5 Night Night Kitty [50-1]
*Scratch* 1a Blanchfleur [30-1]