TMM/HM Race Card du Jour 6/16/04

[kingfin66]

Track: Belmont Date: 6-16/04

Race: 2 Selection: 3 ML: 3/1

Analysis: 6f claimer with a pressured pace scenario. The #3 has a 5-gap PPF and a P running style. He has been the pace setter in the last 2 races, both of which are routes. The odds lines are 3/1-8/1…not great balance, but he is the lone VTR. Worth a play, but not if bet down from 3/1. The ML favorite is 4/5 which could create overlays elsewhere.

Race: 7 Selection: 5 ML: 12/1

Analysis: Another single VTR, but this time with a price. Also another uneven 5/1-9/1 odds line. The race is a 6f allowance with Heavy Pressure. The pick has an undefined running style, but the Position Pointer shows him as a P, as does visual analysis of his running lines. He has a 2-gap PPF and “Fulcrum Advice.” I am ignoring the fulcrum advice because the race is heavy pressure – running style becomes more important than pure fundamentals (i.e. numbers).

Race: 6 Selection: 7 ML: 8/1

Analysis: An interesting race. It’s a 9f inner turf Alw OC, with a neutral pace scenario. The choice has the top PBS & top PPF (7-gap & 3-gap) respectively. It also has a P running-style, nice odds line balance & is a lone VTR. It’s form is great (almost too good) having gone 3rd, 2nd and 4th in last 3 races, all of which were of the Stake variety. In the 4th place finish, he was only 1 out of 1st. To make matters even better, I believe that a 2/1 & 5/2 ML horse can be tossed as they are first time turf horses with modest turf breeding. This would actually be a nice exotics race.

Good luck!

P.S. The feedback I've gotten regarding these threads has been positive and appreciated. The summary I write tends to be in Handicapping Magic jargon. Many are familiar with some of the terms having read the book, or may even have the software or attended one of Michael Pizzolla's seminars. If there is something that isn't clear, or you see something that I got wrong with the race, feel free to make note of it. I do this to share and learn.

Mike (kingfin66)

[gene]

kingfish

I find your analsys of the races very useful.

I have the master magition software and am a $2 bettter.

Do you only play when you have agapped horse?

gene

[gene]

I see it does not help my spelling

gene

[kingfin66]

Hi Gene,

Thanks. I don't require a gapped horse, but definitely like them. Gaps tend to give the race some additional clarity, so I always note them. I don't require gaps if there are other reasons to separate contenders; value, price, pace scenario/running style. If three horses have ratings of say +4, +3, +3, I would be lookng for one of those to have a some combo of positive VTR, price, odds line balance, appropriate running style, reversal protocol, good layoff pattern, etc. Hope that helps.

Mike

ps - It's kingfin66, which isn't really a good horse playing name, but is one I've been using for years. It's actually a car name, but everybody thinks it's kingfish. I'm thinking about changing to a horse playing moniker...maybe Spit the Bit, or Tongue Tied...

[andicap]

I read the book but am unfamilar with some of the jargon:

To wit:

VTR--

Odds line balance

reverse protocal -- does this have to do with exactas, take an opposing running style for the 2 slot???

I'm also curious as to what Pizzolla calls a good layoff pattern?

thanks

[kingfin66]

Andicap:

I'll try to answer your questions in turn.

VTR and Odds Line Balance:

VTR mean Value Tech Ratio. VTR is the ratio between the VT Odds (your ‘odds’ in a race) and VT Contention. We are looking for a positive ration between the VT Contention as compared to the VT Odds (VT Contention greater than VT Odds). The VT Odds is the odds line determined by The Master Magician. The VT Contention line is an estimation of how the public will bet the race. These lines are all computed by The Master Magician's Value Tech Module.

The object of value betting is to bet horses that you like that the public shouldn’t like. This is different that betting horses that you like that the public doesn’t like. If you know that the public should not like a horse and it is nevertheless bet, what does this mean? It could mean that there is action on the horse that is not a result of numbers, ratings, class, etc.

If you get a good VT odds line on a horse, and the public shouldn’t like the horse, you will see a horse with a LOW VT Odds line and an equal or HIGHER VT Contention line.

Example: Horse has VT odds of 2/1 – a strong horse. The VT contention line is 7/2. The public does not like a horse as much as you do. If the horse is bet down to 5/2, this can still be a value bet (but it does not follow the usual concept of overlays).

The higher the VT Contention, the more you are looking at a horse that is weaker in the “conventional” fundamentals.

Example: Horse has VT odds of 2/1, and 15/1 VT contention line. This is ripe for a huge bet, right? Not necessarily. You must look closely if the VT contention is very high. You must be able to explain the disparity. Remember that even if you can explain the disparity or have made a specific “call” on a horse, you won’t be right all the time.

Reversal Protocol:

Two or more horses in today’s race have run; and

It is the last race in the past performances; and

The race was run within 45 days of today’s race (allow more for higher class races).

The Reversal Winner (RW) is the horse coming out with the best finish position in that race.

The Reversal Horse must have run within 5-6 lengths of the RW in the reversal race and must have an “excuse” or positive form cycle magic pattern to be considered a reversal horse.

A Reversal Horse with a positive form cycle pattern should, in most cases, be rated off its best race.

The Reversal Winner is almost always a strong place candidate.

In races with multiple reversal races, favor the reversal race that has the horses with the best ratings in today’s race.

Layoff Patterns:

For first time off layoff, Pizzolla is basically looking for horses that have run well off a layoff before. For second off layoff he is looking to see if a horse had a hard race or showed little or nothing. In the case of a horse who had a hard race, he would likely downgrade the horse. If the horse showed little or nothing, he would call that a SNAIL (from the book) or SLAIL. TMM gives a layoff indicator for horses that have had layoff issues. The ideal layoff pattern would be a horse that had a difficult race 1st off layoff (hard being the leader or within a length of the lead for the entire race), then regressed in its second back and is now coming into its third off layoff.

I hope this helps.