Comparing TwinSpires Offerings

[Flysofree]

Has anyone done a comparison of the top selections for Prime Power and Profit Line . Profit Line is free on each and every program. Prime Power is free only with a bet on the program.
In today's card at Aqueduct (before scratches)
Races 1, 2 and 3 each have a different horse as the top selection
Races 4 through Race 9 have the exact same horse as the top selection.
Note in Race 5 Profit line has the 1 and Prime Power has the 1a. (Profit line/Tools does not seperate the entries)

For those that may follow these regularily do the top choices match approximately 66% of the time?

[raybo]

Prime Power is Brisnet's Prime Power rating which is based on many factors, and produces a good hit rate, but a negative ROI. BPP is not associated with the morning line, or the live odds, or any other odds line, so the BPP user must look for value him/herself in order to make sound betting decisions. Bottom line is that hit rate is only half of the profit equation, average payouts are the other half.

TS' Profit Line, is just that, an odds line based on estimated probabilities of winning. When compared to the live odds it highlights horses based on how the Profit Line compares to the actual live odds (if Profit Line odds are lower than live odds then the horse is considered an "overlay", and if Profit Line odds are higher than live odds then the horse is considered an "underlay"). So, it is dependent on how the public bets horses. Just like any other fair odds line/value line, the line's value is dependent on how good the line is, and how the public bets individual horses during the betting period. Here's an explanation of TS' Profit Line odds:

Profit Line odds represent each horse's estimated probability of winning based on a rigorous computer study encompassing thousands of races. Profit Line odds incorporate numerous handicapping factors (speed, class, pace, form, weight, distance, surface, trainer, jockey, pedigree, recency, etc.). Profit Line odds are provided for all North American thoroughbred races (not available for harness and foreign races). There are countless ways to use Profit Line to help you make winning bets.

The horse with the lowest Profit Line odds is deemed to be the most likely winner according to Profit Line.

Look for Profit Line "overlays" (noted in RED). Whenever the current odds of a horse is greater than (or equal to) the Profit Line odds, the Profit Line odds are displayed in RED. Profit Line deems these "overlays" because the current odds are greater than (or equal to) to the horse's estimated fair chances of winning which means that you will get a higher return on your wager based on live odds than the Profit Line program predicted based on the handicapping factors evaluated.

So, while both the Prime Power ratings, and the Profit Line algorithm both use similar factors in calculating their rating/probability line, the slight differences in those 2 algorithms will agree much of the time, but will also disagree some of the time. The real difference in the value of either lies in how the public bets the horses. Hit rates will vary between the two, but both are probably similar. The key of course, is how the player uses those ratings/lines in their actual betting. The top Prime Power horse hits about the same percentage of winners as what the public favorites do. But, the public favorite (lowest final odds) is always the lowest payout in the race, whereas, the top Prime Power horse is not always the lowest payout in the race. It's your ability to decide which horses offer value that is the difference between using such factors profitably or not.

[thaskalos]

So...after a "rigorous computer study of thousands of races", is this TS Profit Line any good? If we confine ourselves to betting only the Profit Line overlays...will we at least have a fighting chance in this game?

Or was this "rigorous effort" just wasted? :)

[raybo]

So...after a "rigorous computer study of thousands of races", is this TS Profit Line any good? If we confine ourselves to betting only the Profit Line overlays...will we at least have a fighting chance in this game?

Or was this "rigorous effort" just wasted? :)

Do you even need to ask that question? ;) If, in fact, the TS Profit Line was flat bet profitable, don't you think that the word would have already gotten out, and they would have quickly become unprofitable?

Regardless of the value of Profit Line odds, the live odds will still change after we have made our bets. So, what looks like a value play, may in fact be an underlay when all is said and done. The computer teams operate based on their own projected probabilities lines (probably very similar to Profit Line), and they get the last say on the final odds, not us.

[green80]

So...after a "rigorous computer study of thousands of races", is this TS Profit Line any good? If we confine ourselves to betting only the Profit Line overlays...will we at least have a fighting chance in this game?

Or was this "rigorous effort" just wasted? :)

TS profit line overlays will not produce a winning ROI

[chaz63]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/archive/index.php/t-26168.html Study found. Look for Elliot Sidewater's post in this thread I linked from 2006. Over 2000 bets recorded.

[Robert Goren]

I don't know squat about the profit line, but I looked pretty hard at Prime Power. If there is a time to use Prime Power, it is when the Prime Power top horse is not the favorite in a short 6F field. The way to use it then is to toss the top Prime Power pick. Both the Win% and the ROI on those horses is really bad. In a larger field it is not so bad, but unless their was some over riding reason, I still would not touch that horse.
There are ways to use Prime Power numbers in combinations with other numbers that I believe are not included in the number. I also believe that there are somethings that are in it that probably shouldn't be. Since no one outside of BRIS knows the formula, it tough to tell what is in in it, but I am pretty sure that some numbers from track bias charts at the end of their Ultimate PPs are included in Prime Power. Depending on the track and the recent changes in track conditions, this might or might not be a good idea. From what I have seen current meet stats for trainers and jockeys are not included. It is unclear how much race shape goes into it. I am assuming it does to some extent, so scratch of front runner(s) should move up other front runners. The Prime Power number is written in stone when the entries are drawn. If you can figure out a way to adjust it after the scratches are known and if a track bias develops, It could be useful. A lot of what goes into the number is probably pretty much correctly added in at the right ratios. It is a number that you can use as a starting point in your handicapping, but to bet it as a stand a lone number will dwindle your bank roll pretty fast.

[Robert Goren]

One more thing, it appears that the formulas for these numbers are at least 10 years old. So another question becomes; How much has racing changed in the last 10 years? and does that change make the formula less useful?

[raybo]

One more thing, it appears that the formulas for these numbers are at least 10 years old. So another question becomes; How much has racing changed in the last 10 years? and does that change make the formula less useful?

I use the PSR rating from JCapper/HDW (very similar to Brisnet's Prime Power rating) as a portion of my PowerFormVelocities (PFV) rating, and without much fluctuation from track to track, my PFV rating not only outperforms my other rankings methods, in hit rate, but often in positive ROI also. Don't know if the PSR algorithm has changed overtime, but my records for the last couple of years tells me that it is still a very good starting point for creating a personal composite performance rating. Its hit rate is slightly lower than Bris' Prime Power rating, but the PSR's ROI is slightly higher than Prime Power.

[ebcorde]

I don't know squat about the profit line, but I looked pretty hard at Prime Power. If there is a time to use Prime Power, it is when the Prime Power top horse is not the favorite in a short 6F field. The way to use it then is to toss the top Prime Power pick. Both the Win% and the ROI on those horses is really bad. In a larger field it is not so bad, but unless their was some over riding reason, I still would not touch that horse.
There are ways to use Prime Power numbers in combinations with other numbers that I believe are not included in the number. I also believe that there are somethings that are in it that probably shouldn't be. Since no one outside of BRIS knows the formula, it tough to tell what is in in it, but I am pretty sure that some numbers from track bias charts at the end of their Ultimate PPs are included in Prime Power. Depending on the track and the recent changes in track conditions, this might or might not be a good idea. From what I have seen current meet stats for trainers and jockeys are not included. It is unclear how much race shape goes into it. I am assuming it does to some extent, so scratch of front runner(s) should move up other front runners. The Prime Power number is written in stone when the entries are drawn. If you can figure out a way to adjust it after the scratches are known and if a track bias develops, It could be useful. A lot of what goes into the number is probably pretty much correctly added in at the right ratios. It is a number that you can use as a starting point in your handicapping, but to bet it as a stand a lone number will dwindle your bank roll pretty fast.

I read it all, then your last sentence I said "about time!" the PP's suck!!!,
the summary is much better except for the N/A and blanks , then you have to compensate.

I use Bris data files. Bris single data file contains less information than the PP, yet I do way better with my own home brew PRIME POWER than theirs. Because with the Home brew I see long shots capable of beating the top horses. With Bris PP it seems that 10-1 shot is ranked 7th,8th. when I may have him 3rd. :faint:

The Turf PP is awful. I find a lot of inflated PP numbers.


but there's always an exception G1 races Bris PP is pretty good.