Bloodhorse article on Computer-Robotic Wagering (CRW)

[Redboard]

Computer-Robotic Wagering (CRW) - By Frank Angst

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

I apologize if this blog has already been discussed here, but it’s a topic that is dear to most of our hearts.
A very good article. Author proposes banning CRW because it gives them an unfair advantage since they have the capability to make bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled.

I don’t agree with his suggestion though. Banning large bets seconds before post time wouldn’t make sense.

Here’s my proposal, and it’s very simple.
Do away with pari-mutual odds on the tote! Only show morning line odds!

The tote is just about worthless these days, unless 30 seconds before post, and even then it's hard to trust it. Every value play eventually comes down to earth these days. Of course, the tracks would have to put out a more accurate ML odds, and don’t tell me that they can’t. If the whales have software that can figure out the “real” odds, the tracks can certainly get that software.
It would kill two birds with one stone. The whales/computer guys could still make their bets, and we wouldn’t have to worry about odds dropping down the home stretch.

What do you think?

[Stillriledup]

People have no problems betting into blind pick 4 pools, so maybe they wouldn't have a problem betting into blind win pools.

My suggestion was to have 2 separate pools and give bettors the option if they want to bet into the CRW pool or the pool where CRW isn't allowed.

[biggestal99]

Computer-Robotic Wagering (CRW) - By Frank Angst

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

I apologize if this blog has already been discussed here, but it’s a topic that is dear to most of our hearts.
A very good article. Author proposes banning CRW because it gives them an unfair advantage since they have the capability to make bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled.

I don’t agree with his suggestion though. Banning large bets seconds before post time wouldn’t make sense.

Here’s my proposal, and it’s very simple.
Do away with pari-mutual odds on the tote! Only show morning line odds!

The tote is just about worthless these days, unless 30 seconds before post, and even then it's hard to trust it. Every value play eventually comes down to earth these days. Of course, the tracks would have to put out a more accurate ML odds, and don’t tell me that they can’t. If the whales have software that can figure out the “real” odds, the tracks can certainly get that software.
It would kill two birds with one stone. The whales/computer guys could still make their bets, and we wouldn’t have to worry about odds dropping down the home stretch.

What do you think?

The most accurate odds are those on the betting exchange.

The tote odds at most tracks are a worthless guide as to the final price.

Allan

[Redboard]

Just want to make clear, my suggestion, the payouts would still be pari-mutual. I'm not talking about fixed odds, which we know would never happen.

SRU: Yea I remember reading your suggestion earlier. That would work for me.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Betting blindly into horizontal bets I get, but the idea of only showing M/L odds and then when it is final the parimutuel price would drive me to not bet at all.

Imagine the stunned look when you bet a 5-2 M/L to see it pay $2.60. At that price I would switch off the win if I liked him that much and play an exacta.

While I don't like the robot wagering, this is dislike even more.

[Stillriledup]

Betting blindly into horizontal bets I get, but the idea of only showing M/L odds and then when it is final the parimutuel price would drive me to not bet at all.

Imagine the stunned look when you bet a 5-2 M/L to see it pay $2.60. At that price I would switch off the win if I liked him that much and play an exacta.

While I don't like the robot wagering, this is dislike even more.

You would also be stunned if you bet an 8/5 ML and got 8 bucks. Wouldn't it all even out in the end anyway?

I like the idea of a blind win pool because that way people who didnt really know how to handicap wouldn't be 'tipped off' to the major contenders, it would just be them and their PPs on an island.

[ronsmac]

Computer-Robotic Wagering (CRW) - By Frank Angst

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

I apologize if this blog has already been discussed here, but it’s a topic that is dear to most of our hearts.
A very good article. Author proposes banning CRW because it gives them an unfair advantage since they have the capability to make bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled.

I don’t agree with his suggestion though. Banning large bets seconds before post time wouldn’t make sense.

Here’s my proposal, and it’s very simple.
Do away with pari-mutual odds on the tote! Only show morning line odds!

The tote is just about worthless these days, unless 30 seconds before post, and even then it's hard to trust it. Every value play eventually comes down to earth these days. Of course, the tracks would have to put out a more accurate ML odds, and don’t tell me that they can’t. If the whales have software that can figure out the “real” odds, the tracks can certainly get that software.
It would kill two birds with one stone. The whales/computer guys could still make their bets, and we wouldn’t have to worry about odds dropping down the home stretch.

What do you think?I like the authors proposal better.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

You would also be stunned if you bet an 8/5 ML and got 8 bucks. Wouldn't it all even out in the end anyway?

I like the idea of a blind win pool because that way people who didnt really know how to handicap wouldn't be 'tipped off' to the major contenders, it would just be them and their PPs on an island.

I use the board for that exact reason, to see if a horse might be live and then look into why.

Why would a handicapper want less information than more?

If we are going to hide the current odds then display it after the race, why not hide the M/L, equipment changes, first time lasix, ect. Then we can display them after the race! Horrible idea.

[Dave Schwartz]

The tote is just about worthless these days, unless 30 seconds before post, and even then it's hard to trust it. Every value play eventually comes down to earth these days. Of course, the tracks would have to put out a more accurate ML odds, and don’t tell me that they can’t. If the whales have software that can figure out the “real” odds, the tracks can certainly get that software.
It would kill two birds with one stone. The whales/computer guys could still make their bets, and we wouldn’t have to worry about odds dropping down the home stretch.

What do you think?

I think that this change would have exactly the opposite affect you are hoping for.

Currently, the largest of players have the ability to model the tote board, something the average player just cannot do.

If what you suggest is enacted, it will result in the average player having LESS information than he has now, while the whales will continue with a modeling process that has been honed for several years.

In other words, it will WIDEN the gap between even the above-average player and the whales.

[Cholly]

Most are overlooking the OP's caveat that the tracks publish an accurate M/L projected by sophisticated software programs similar to those currently used by whales. This M/L could even be updated at 20MTP using algorithms incorporating the will-pays into that race.

Not saying I support, but it's an interesting idea.

[ebcorde]

Computer-Robotic Wagering (CRW) - By Frank Angst

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/wgoh/archive/2015/11/17/computer-robotic-wagering-crw-by-frank-angst.aspx

I apologize if this blog has already been discussed here, but it’s a topic that is dear to most of our hearts.
A very good article. Author proposes banning CRW because it gives them an unfair advantage since they have the capability to make bets just a few seconds before the race when odds have settled.

I don’t agree with his suggestion though. Banning large bets seconds before post time wouldn’t make sense.

Here’s my proposal, and it’s very simple.
Do away with pari-mutual odds on the tote! Only show morning line odds!

The tote is just about worthless these days, unless 30 seconds before post, and even then it's hard to trust it. Every value play eventually comes down to earth these days. Of course, the tracks would have to put out a more accurate ML odds, and don’t tell me that they can’t. If the whales have software that can figure out the “real” odds, the tracks can certainly get that software.
It would kill two birds with one stone. The whales/computer guys could still make their bets, and we wouldn’t have to worry about odds dropping down the home stretch.

What do you think?

I have always wanted to do that Brisnet will not allow screen scraping. it's been a while since I last looked at it anyone knows of a screen scraper capable of pulling odds off web sites

I'm not a web site guru I think the real time stuff resides on the server and they have mechanisms to block a screen scrap when the data is displayed.

I hate writing web software occasionally I'm forced to do PHP,HTML,CSS but I brute force it. I'm just an old school C++ guy that moved to Java

but my plan was screen scrap the exacta payouts and make a bet via software based on the highest payouts. WOULD STILL LOVE TO DO THAT


the Whales have special access we don't have, Or they're tapping the TCP/IP message. whatever it is I haven't figured it out. I've only tried screen scrap.

[Redboard]

I think that this change would have exactly the opposite affect you are hoping for.

Currently, the largest of players have the ability to model the tote board, something the average player just cannot do.

If what you suggest is enacted, it will result in the average player having LESS information than he has now, while the whales will continue with a modeling process that has been honed for several years.

In other words, it will WIDEN the gap between even the above-average player and the whales.

Interesting comment, and one I didn’t expect. In my scenario, I would think that the CRW sharks would stay away from these races since they really wouldn’t know what odds they were getting. I always thought that their software generates a threshold value that triggers their bets. But you’re saying that they would feast on these hhhmmmmmm…

[Stillriledup]

I use the board for that exact reason, to see if a horse might be live and then look into why.

Why would a handicapper want less information than more?

If we are going to hide the current odds then display it after the race, why not hide the M/L, equipment changes, first time lasix, ect. Then we can display them after the race! Horrible idea.


A player might want less information because the information he wants 'less of' is info that would hurt other bettors more than it would hurt him.

[Redboard]

Most are overlooking the OP's caveat that the tracks publish an accurate M/L projected by sophisticated software programs similar to those currently used by whales. This M/L could even be updated at 20MTP using algorithms incorporating the will-pays into that race.

Not saying I support, but it's an interesting idea.


Yea. And the tote could periodically change for scratches. Suppose an 8/5 scratches 5 minutes before the race, everyone gets recalculated.

[Redboard]

Betting blindly into horizontal bets I get, but the idea of only showing M/L odds and then when it is final the parimutuel price would drive me to not bet at all.

Imagine the stunned look when you bet a 5-2 M/L to see it pay $2.60.


I see where you're coming from, but nothing's worse than seeing a 5-2 drop to 4/5 in the stretch. At least betting into a blind pool you'll have no expectations, you'll get what you get. The tote gives the illusion of a certain payout, but it's just that.

[forced89]

I read the column in the Bloodhorse and was horrified. Suggesting to politicians in Washington that "CRW may be illegal" may have unintended consequences, none of which will be positive.

[Fox]

I read the column in the Bloodhorse and was horrified. Suggesting to politicians in Washington that "CRW may be illegal" may have unintended consequences, none of which will be positive.

He didn't really make a case for it being illegal though. He put it out there but didn't back it up. It's a poorly written article if ask me.

As for making the win pool blind, when they came up with the saying "there's no such thing as a bad idea", I guess they hadn't heard that one.

[biggestal99]

Just want to make clear, my suggestion, the payouts would still be pari-mutual. I'm not talking about fixed odds, which we know would never happen.

.

Well fixed odds betting is the future of horse racing, its already being done in the uk,
With the crw effecting prices like crazy pari-mutually i rather take my shot with fixed odds.

Personally i like to know EXACTLY my return on each wager i make, with fixed odds betting you know to the exact penny.

Allan

[Dr Gonzo]

Bettor : What's the line on the Steelers Game ?

Bookie : You wanna know the point spread before the game? BWAHAHAHA. Just pick one of the teams and we'll let you know the point spread after the game starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

How long would sports betting last if they conducted it like this?

Isn't this what CRW has done to horse racing ?

[ronsmac]

Bettor : What's the line on the Steelers Game ?

Bookie : You wanna know the point spread before the game? BWAHAHAHA. Just pick one of the teams and we'll let you know the point spread after the game starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

How long would sports betting last if they conducted it like this?

Isn't this what CRW has done to horse racing ?Yes. It's been going on for more than a decade. Hopefully there will be a big another push to stop it. I doubt it though. They bit too much money.

[cj]

Bettor : What's the line on the Steelers Game ?

Bookie : You wanna know the point spread before the game? BWAHAHAHA. Just pick one of the teams and we'll let you know the point spread after the game starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

How long would sports betting last if they conducted it like this?

Isn't this what CRW has done to horse racing ?

Sports betting is not parimutuel.

[castaway01]

Well fixed odds betting is the future of horse racing, its already being done in the uk,
With the crw effecting prices like crazy pari-mutually i rather take my shot with fixed odds.

Personally i like to know EXACTLY my return on each wager i make, with fixed odds betting you know to the exact penny.

Allan

The UK has always had it in some form though, and they have a totally different setup there with all of the bookmakers.

[Dave Schwartz]

Interesting comment, and one I didn’t expect. In my scenario, I would think that the CRW sharks would stay away from these races since they really wouldn’t know what odds they were getting. I always thought that their software generates a threshold value that triggers their bets. But you’re saying that they would feast on these hhhmmmmmm…

Absolutely right.

One of my planned projects for 2016 (end of year) is to do some serious studies about projecting odds from known factors. I have some data already but have not yet built an engine to improve it.

Currently, what I have are these highly-correlated factors (in order of importance):

*1. Track Morning Line
2. HDW's PSR rating (comparable to BRIS' Prime Power)
3. Trainer's Win Pct at the track over last 1-3 years. (Number of years are all about the same.)
4. Average of last 4 speed ratings.
5. Likelihood of going to the front (i.e. ES running style)

*At low-handle tracks, #1 moves down to #4 and everything else moves up.