KY Derby Future Wager Thoughts

[Bigadam119]

Nyquist is 10-1 in the ML, Uncle Mo his is 20-1 in the sire ML. Seems like you get Nyquist and others at a better price with Uncle Mo. Why would you be Nyquist at all????

[biggestal99]

Nyquist is 10-1 in the ML, Uncle Mo his is 20-1 in the sire ML. Seems like you get Nyquist and others at a better price with Uncle Mo. Why would you be Nyquist at all????

Uncle Mo will go off shorter than Nyquist, its guaranteed.

Allan

[v j stauffer]

STICKSTATELYDUDE

[tanner12oz]

I'm betting the green monkey

[Stillriledup]

The field in the sire portion is a horrendous bet, people don't understand that it's not the same as the horses field, there's no proof you'll even get ONE horse in the gate.

[therussmeister]

I think they are both horrendous bets. This far out, I'm not sure any horse is an overlay at less than 100/1.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The field in the sire portion is a horrendous bet, people don't understand that it's not the same as the horses field, there's no proof you'll even get ONE horse in the gate.

That's a good point. It's almost the reverse of the "field" wager on the individual horses, where the odds of getting a contender from an unlisted sire certainly don't reflect the chances of a late developing individual horse winning the Derby. However, since it's a new wager, I think it's worth considering if there is any value in it.

The OP brings up a great point - if you're going to see value in an individual horse, it would obviously make sense to bet the sire instead if the odds are higher. Currently, Nightquist is 8-1, Uncle Mo is now 11-1.

[Stillriledup]

That's a good point. It's almost the reverse of the "field" wager on the individual horses, where the odds of getting a contender from an unlisted sire certainly don't reflect the chances of a late developing individual horse winning the Derby. However, since it's a new wager, I think it's worth considering if there is any value in it.

The OP brings up a great point - if you're going to see value in an individual horse, it would obviously make sense to bet the sire instead if the odds are higher. Currently, Nightquist is 8-1, Uncle Mo is now 11-1.

I think people are so used to betting the field that they're not thinking that the games top sires are all taken. If you hit the field in the sire portion you deserve 50-1 or more.

[lamboguy]

the futures bets put out by Churchill are all parimutuel.

does anyone know what happens to the money that got bet on dead horses that don't make it to the race?

[egreen]

You answered your own question regarding those who don't make it. This is a pari-mutuel pool.

[davew]

You answered your own question regarding those who don't make it. This is a pari-mutuel pool.

yes, but in most parimutual pools, late scratches are refunds. These 'future pools' are closed once betting closes.

[therussmeister]

the futures bets put out by Churchill are all parimutuel.

does anyone know what happens to the money that got bet on dead horses that don't make it to the race?
The same thing that happens to the money bet on the horses that race but don't win. In a normal race, when there is a late scratch, the price of all the other horses declines to reflect the money leaving the pool, but in the futures pool there is no refund so the prices stay the same.

[Bigadam119]

Does Pioneerof the Nile have anything that looks like it could be remotely close to the derby next year? He's currently 12-1 in the future wager.