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View Full Version : R7 G3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes


Lemon Drop Husker
11-21-2015, 09:59 AM
One of a number of Kentucky Derby preps highlights the calendar event of every year for my favorite Louisiana track.

10 Kentucky Derby hopefuls will look to go to the gate at 1 1/16ths mile in a race that may be more open than the form suggests.

:1: Forevamo: Uncle Mo breds are starting to make some noise. This colt is getting better each time out and now owns a victory over this very track at a mile distance. Leading jockey at the track returns to the irons and Albert Stall is no slouch in the barn. With all the positives one can point to, I just can't see this one winning against others that are entered in here. I am grudgingly tossing out of all exotics as well.

:2: Memories of Winter: 2 for 2, but it is hard to say what or who he has actually beat. Major upgrade in class with this one, but I do like the Hard Spun breeding. If he is to be a factor, he'll need to be involved on the front end. Just not sure this one is ready for an 8 1/2 panel battle on or near the lead with these just yet.

:3: Sunny Ridge: Already has experience against some of the best of his peers and has shown that he can be competitive. I can forgive him losing the lead in the stretch of the G1 Champagne in the slop at Belmont. Servis and Ortiz aren't here for craps and giggles, and this one is a major contender in here. This one could also sit a very nice trip if he doesn't get involved in a front end battle.

:4: Whitmore: Ron Moquett is an under appreciated trainer, and this colt may well be under appreciated at the windows to boot. Sure, we can look at the greenness of this one's maiden score, but he still won by 7 1/4 lengths. Fully expecting this one to be on or very near the lead at the 2nd call, and I'm sure the connections will take their chances from there. Dangerous 8/1 ML entry that could improve greatly in his 2nd career race.

:5: Harlan Punch: Came up just short in a long rally to catch the :1: last out. Tom Amoss gets this one back and is adding blinkers. I'm generally not a fan of horses from Harlan's Holiday, but this one is intriguing. Especially at a 10/1 ML. He'll need a wicked pace up front, and he just may well get it. I'll be very interested in how this one plays on the tote board.

:6: Texas Jambalaya: After 6 races we have a pretty good idea of what this one is about right now. And right now he simply isn't good enough to beat most of his peers that are entered in here. At best, he can clunk up on the bottom of Tris and Supers if we have a pace meltdown.

:7: Found Money: Gotta love the name, and the connections of Super Mario and Doug O'Neill have to be respected as they ship in from the Left Coast. This one has struggled to finish races, but much like the :3:, they aren't shipping here for fun. The strategy has to be to get this one out early and see how far he can go. Not sure he can win, but he will be a factor in who does win this race.

:8: Cowboy Classic: Just finished 3rd in a $29K 7F maiden race that finished in a blistering time of 1:30.3 :sleeping:. If this one finishes within 20 lengths of the winner I'll be surprised.

:9: Exaggerator: The class of the race is coming in off of a solid 4th in the BC Juvenile. The 2/1 ML is fairly generous, and I see him going off at around 6/5 or so. Without a doubt this is the one to beat, and it looks like he'll get a very nice set up to run his race. With that said, I see him as a very vulnerable favorite.

:10: Iron Dome: Very aggressive placing for this one coming in off of a $25K maiden score at Thistle Downs. Hard to find anything to like about this one, and the 20/1 ML is hopeful at best.

WP: :4::5:
EX: :4::5: Box
EX: :4::5:/:3::4::5::7:
Tri: :4::5:/:3::4::5::7:/:3::4::5::6::7::9:
Tri: :9:/:4::5:/:3::4::5::6::7:

johnhannibalsmith
11-21-2015, 10:48 AM
...

:5: Harlan Punch: Came up just short in a long rally to catch the :1: last out. Tom Amoss gets this one back and is adding blinkers. I'm generally not a fan of horses from Harlan's Holiday, but this one is intriguing. Especially at a 10/1 ML. He'll need a wicked pace up front, and he just may well get it. I'll be very interested in how this one plays on the tote board.

...

This colt is probably the one in the race that could compel me to play the race if the real obvious players take the money that they should and this guy is near his 10-1 M/L. Two really good races, blinkers added off of a big rallying effort to be second, and a familiarity with the track and configuration seem like a whole lot of positives for an improving runner that has done nothing wrong in two starts and in the hands of someone more than capable of winning races like this.

no breathalyzer
11-21-2015, 11:04 AM
i agree i been watching the :1: if i play or not i'll be rooting for him

raybo
11-21-2015, 02:52 PM
I hate 2 yo races! But, Delta is one of my favorite tracks. The graphic shows my projected order at 1st call, 2nd call, and finish. However, the track configuration, and possibly some wind (low to mid double digits) can very well help determine the order of finish. These projections are based on running styles, Quirin type early speed points, JCapper pace and speed figures. No attempt to predict improvements from these youngsters are included in any of this, nor are class/distance ratings. Looks chalky to me, but Delta can defeat even the best of horses, and handicappers. Good luck!!

---------E1 E2 / LATE SPEED
PARS: 125 101 / 53 91

dasch
11-21-2015, 04:14 PM
Bullring......Speed.......Oneill......not far off Nyquist on his best........

I LOVE :7: Found Money and will be shocked if he goes off at his morning line of 6-1.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-21-2015, 04:21 PM
Swampy leg weary track right now.

This will be very interesting.

raybo
11-21-2015, 04:55 PM
Pretty big upset in the 6th. Looked like the fav had it at the stretch call, but got passed rather easily by the 3, who won by open lengths. The fav broke to the right out of the gate and never really looked comfortable early. Should have been on or near the lead by the 1st call, especially in the mud. Didn't happen. I had 6 3 2 4 for my projected order of finish. No bet of course, because the 6 looked too good and at way too small a price.

Lemon Drop Husker
11-21-2015, 05:13 PM
Pretty big upset in the 6th. Looked like the fav had it at the stretch call, but got passed rather easily by the 3, who won by open lengths. The fav broke to the right out of the gate and never really looked comfortable early. Should have been on or near the lead by the 1st call, especially in the mud. Didn't happen. I had 6 3 2 4 for my projected order of finish. No bet of course, because the 6 looked too good and at way too small a price.

Yep.

How many times do you see a 1/5 chalk in a solid stakes race, with an open lead, get passed in a short stretch like an everyday claimer?

I'm still all over the :4::5:

Lemon Drop Husker
11-21-2015, 05:30 PM
Got the Super, but most cetainly won't break even.

Weirdly ran race. :5: Harlan Punch was game, but just not good enough.

raybo
11-21-2015, 05:34 PM
Well, I didn't want to bet the 9 to win because of his odds being 4/5, so I bet a super with him on top, and got 2/1 instead. :lol: Oh well, profit is profit. :cool:

Lemon Drop Husker
11-21-2015, 05:35 PM
Well, I didn't want to bet the 9 to win because of his odds being 4/5, so I bet a super with him on top, and got 2/1 instead. :lol: Oh well, profit is profit. :cool:

Well done. :ThmbUp:

raybo
11-21-2015, 05:37 PM
Yep.

How many times do you see a 1/5 chalk in a solid stakes race, with an open lead, get passed in a short stretch like an everyday claimer?

I'm still all over the :4::5:

I couldn't put anyone over the 9, so I just played a super, and hoped Harlan's could get a piece. I started to pass the race but 9 looked so good I decided to single him with a bunch on the 3rd and 4th lines.

raybo
11-21-2015, 05:38 PM
Well done. :ThmbUp:

Wasn't tough to hit the super, this time, and it's a good thing, with the payout being so low. 6, 8, and 10 were all tosses, which helped a bit, structure and cost wise.