Sick Beat

[arw629]

There is probably a thread for bad beats and almost big hits but here's a good one...just played some numbers for the 10 cent high 5 at Balmoral in the finale...9 with all with 4 with all with 1,2,3

Order of finish
9 ..8-5
3 ..70-1
4 ..9-5
2 ..21-1
6 ..25-1

The 2 just got up over the 6 at the wire ...paid 7962.47 for a dime ...have a good weekend all!

[EMD4ME]

There is probably a thread for bad beats and almost big hits but here's a good one...just played some numbers for the 10 cent high 5 at Balmoral in the finale...9 with all with 4 with all with 1,2,3

Order of finish
9 ..8-5
3 ..70-1
4 ..9-5
2 ..21-1
6 ..25-1

The 2 just got up over the 6 at the wire ...paid 7962.47 for a dime ...have a good weekend all!

ooouuccchhh.... sorry....

[raybo]

I think he meant that "the 6 just got up over the 2", instead of the other way around. :confused:

[stringmail]

No.

He had the 2 in the 5th spot and when the 2 got up to 4th, over the 6 who finished 5th...he lost.

If the 6 had held on to 4th, he wins.

[raybo]

No.

He had the 2 in the 5th spot and when the 2 got up to 4th, over the 6 who finished 5th...he lost.

If the 6 had held on to 4th, he wins.

Ok, I see that now - duh! :bang: I somehow got a pick 5 ticket mixed into my thinking along the way, instead of a high 5.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

The question is, what did you learn from that bet?

[raybo]

The question is, what did you learn from that bet?

His ticket structure is a conundrum, for sure. I can see singling the win line, but singling the show line and only having 3 horses on the 5th line means that his hit rate will be extremely inconsistent, and he will miss one, or more, of those 3 lines so often that the only way he could possibly profit long term would be due to a huge hit or two, not just a big hit or two, huge hits.

My own hit rate with superfectas has hovered around 8% for years, with much better coverage than he has, so I would suspect a long term hit rate of about 1%+-.

[Winger]

His ticket structure is a conundrum, for sure. I can see singling the win line, but singling the show line and only having 3 horses on the 5th line means that his hit rate will be extremely inconsistent, and he will miss one, or more, of those 3 lines so often that the only way he could possibly profit long term would be due to a huge hit or two, not just a big hit or two, huge hits.

My own hit rate with superfectas has hovered around 8% for years, with much better coverage than he has, so I would suspect a long term hit rate of about 1%+-.

One of the guys on TVG was doing Super High-5 tickets keying the 5th place finisher for awhile. It was pretty dumb.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

His ticket structure is a conundrum, for sure. I can see singling the win line, but singling the show line and only having 3 horses on the 5th line means that his hit rate will be extremely inconsistent, and he will miss one, or more, of those 3 lines so often that the only way he could possibly profit long term would be due to a huge hit or two, not just a big hit or two, huge hits.

My own hit rate with superfectas has hovered around 8% for years, with much better coverage than he has, so I would suspect a long term hit rate of about 1%+-.

If I calculated it right, he spent $9 on that ticket. Putting the other four horses (assuming a 9 horse race) in the fifth spot would have cost an additional $12 and taken all the sweat out of that fourth/fifth place photo. In fact, you could have bought the board for $151 and not sweated any of the slots. Plus, you could have been the only guy at the track screaming, "get up 3" at 70-1.

I was going to say putting the strong second choice in third only was some sort of savant play. Of course, if he had played 9/all/4/all/all, hit the race, and then made the post, he'd still have to take some crap.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

One of the guys on TVG was doing Super High-5 tickets keying the 5th place finisher for awhile. It was pretty dumb.

At really small tracks that don't have 10 cent minimums, that would often pay to the "ALL" in the fourth spot in a super. Arapahoe Park figured out quickly that a 10 cent super would lead to pools of $245, so they installed a dollar mimimum. The pools would get to $1,200 that way. I would play 123/123/all/two longest shots left. Basically I had to hit the quinella and hope a price horse finished third. I was doing pretty well with that (about half the supers were paying to the all). One Saturday I had a 20-1 shot on top, one of the longshots came fourth, and the favorite ran totally out. When the payoff comes up, the payoff is about half what I think it should be. (When I checked the chart, there were two $1 tickets). Ok, coincidence. Next week same sort of thing happens. I finally realize someone is playing the same strategy as me and we were killing each other.

[arw629]

His ticket structure is a conundrum, for sure. I can see singling the win line, but singling the show line and only having 3 horses on the 5th line means that his hit rate will be extremely inconsistent, and he will miss one, or more, of those 3 lines so often that the only way he could possibly profit long term would be due to a huge hit or two, not just a big hit or two, huge hits.

My own hit rate with superfectas has hovered around 8% for years, with much better coverage than he has, so I would suspect a long term hit rate of about 1%+-.

I get what you're saying but I was just throwing some cash around ...pure gambling with little thought....I'd compare it to buying a ten dollar scratch off

[arw629]

In other news I needed the 2 or 8 in the finale at Del Mar for the pick 3 and the 6 walks on the front end! Cursed!

Will pays were 4 figs!

[raybo]

I get what you're saying but I was just throwing some cash around ...pure gambling with little thought....I'd compare it to buying a ten dollar scratch off

Hey at least you're not betting $500 on a 1/5 to win. Betting small to win large is much more fiscally sound, in the long run. Sorry you didn't cash that one! I can't tell you how many times a single horse has cost me 5 digits. These extreme exotics are not for the impatient.