The Master Handicapper [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Maxspa

06-15-2004, 12:23 PM

Jackad,
I believe it's better than Handicapping Magic. A couple of years ago, Michael P. told me he still used it to make tough calls.
My problem with it, is the same one many others have and that is the numbers could be improved. If you are an overlay bettor then it should be give you an advantage. It was one of the few handicapping programs that I made a profit with over the short haul. I might be be biased because I have so much respect for Michael Pizzola: His teaching methods are phenominal and when you attend one of his seminars you definitely get your money's worth.
Again it helps to be strictly an overlay bettor and you must stick with the choices regardless of a bad day!
Hope this helps!
Maxspa

Lefty

06-15-2004, 02:56 PM

My question would be can you still get downloads for it? Does Pizzolla still support it?

jackad

06-15-2004, 03:02 PM

Downloads are available from Handicappers Daily ($1.50 per track) but I don't believe Pizzola supports it any longer.

It went off at ebay for $177.50. Good price?

Lefty

06-15-2004, 03:26 PM

All the literature I ever got from Pizzolla never indicated it used dl's from Handicapper's Daily. It used a completely diff download that Pizzolla provided. If you can't get dl's for the prgm then not a good proce. If Poizzolla doesn't support it, not a good price; in my opinion.

shane

06-15-2004, 05:23 PM

I've used The Master Handicapper since '94. It does use different downloads and MP does support it. I only use it on Ohio tracks and I'm well satisfied. I did change most of the numbers by creating new races, using Beyers #'s created by early horses and then using the pinpoint adjustment to equalize them. Works for me.
Shane

jackad

06-16-2004, 01:25 PM

ANYONE USING THE PROGRAM WITHOUT HAVING CHANGED THE NUMBERS AS SHANE DID?

shanta

06-16-2004, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by jackad
ANYONE USING THE PROGRAM WITHOUT HAVING CHANGED THE NUMBERS AS SHANE DID?

my best friend in Jersey who I see every weekend uses TMH right out of the box with no tinkering. He even is using the original pars from like 6 or 8 years ago when he first bought the program!

files are 1.50 per card and are available through the handicappers daily website under 3rd party downloads or something like that.
Richie

jackad

06-16-2004, 02:06 PM

SHANTA
Is there anything you can tell us as to HOW your friend uses the program to make his selections?

shanta

06-16-2004, 02:17 PM

I know he ALWAYS follows the scenario shown on the accu-pressure screen. If it calls the race unpressured or lone unpressured he is always betting an early horse form the pp(primary pace) side. He also checks the pace numbers on whatever "side" he is looking at for THAT race. He looks for gaps in the numbers on the top 1 or 2 contenders.

If the race is "pressured or highly pressured he sorts by late fraction and again checks for gaps there looking for an edge.

He lets the "expert selector" pick the pacelines. what he does check for is if it is picking a line where say the horse got checked out of the race or it might have lost the rider. most of the time the "selector" chooses 2 lines for a horse so he just checks to see if they are not screwed up somehow.

He hits "control o" and looks at the odds shown there for early, late and master, waits for overlays and bets. He also checks the "exacta pattern screen " looking for the counter energy horses.

I will write him tonite and see if he will come on here and post. He has been using TMH for years.I am sure I have left out a lot.
Richie

jackad

06-16-2004, 02:33 PM

Richie,
Many thanks. The reason I've been asking these questions is that I am the one who won the last Ebay auction of TMH.

shanta

06-16-2004, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by jackad
Richie,
Many thanks. The reason I've been asking these questions is that I am the one who won the last Ebay auction of TMH.

Jack,
Considering that my buddy paid 1200 beans years ago for it and it is still working today I would say you got a great deal!

I will write him or call tonite and ask if he would post. He knows a great deal about the program.

If he is reluctant to do so I will give him your email address ok?
Good luck with the program
Richie

jackad

06-16-2004, 02:56 PM

Richie,
Definitely OK. I look foward to seeing your friend's post or hearing from him via email.Thanks again.

Lefty

06-16-2004, 02:57 PM

Jack, let us know what files you are able to get into it. Seems to be a question on which ones are available for it; at least in my mind.

shanta

06-16-2004, 02:59 PM

Jack,
can you send me your email address please

Send to: kianti31@msn.com

I will speak with him tonite and ask him to write you privately.
Richie

shanta

06-16-2004, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Lefty
Jack, let us know what files you are able to get into it. Seems to be a question on which ones are available for it; at least in my mind.

Hi Chuck,

the files are available

go to itsdata.com
click on download under "menu" on the left side of page
master handicapper link for files is right on the center of page down a little bit.

for tmh you want the tmh2 files ok?
Richie

Lefty

06-16-2004, 03:39 PM

Thanks, ritchie. I was just curious as I never saw anything in any literature I ever got from Mike that TMH used the ITS files. It's hard to blve he has just turned his back on TMH owners and not updated the pars in yrs. Anyway, Jack, goodluck with it.

sevenall

06-16-2004, 08:37 PM

Does anybody else have a copy of The Master Handicapper that they're looking to sell?

I've used the Master Magician for a few years and I've always been interested in checking out it's predecessor.

Tom

06-16-2004, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by sevenall
Does anybody else have a copy of The Master Handicapper that they're looking to sell?

I've used the Master Magician for a few years and I've always been interested in checking out it's predecessor.
I have a friend who has it and to my knowledge, no longer uses it. I will call him and see if he is interested-probably not until Thursday night when he is off work (he runs an OTB parlor).
.........
I just got him-he will look for the key to unlock it and call me back Friday night. There is a physical key you have to have plugged into a compueter port to use the program.

Zaf

06-16-2004, 09:49 PM

Hi Tom,

Thats your buddy that I met at Finger Lakes. Is he still using the Master Magician ?

ZAFONIC

Tom

06-16-2004, 09:56 PM

That's right-you did meet him at the contest. He is into blackjack now and rarely plays horses. He has won some tourneys and actually made a profit last year. Turning Stone is his homebase.
He is an old Sartin alumni too. We used to ride together to the Albany seminats, then the Baltimore ones, then to Philly for Michael's, featuring our own Dick Schmidt. Great times back then.
I hit FL, Penn, Pim, Del, Philly for six days. Loved that week-just car hopping track to track, betting like a fool using Total Pace.

Zaf

06-16-2004, 09:59 PM

Wow, winning money at Turning Stone, Thats a neat trick !

Speaking of the contest, Any talk of a 2004 edition ???

ZAFONIC

Tom

06-16-2004, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by zafonic
Wow, winning money at Turning Stone, Thats a neat trick !

Speaking of the contest, Any talk of a 2004 edition ???

ZAFONIC
I'll see what I can find out this weekend.

sevenall

06-16-2004, 11:46 PM

Tom,

Thanks for talking to your friend about the Master Handicapper program.

Let me know if he's interested in selling it.

Tom

06-18-2004, 07:59 PM

Sevenall,
He is willing.
I sent you a PM on how to get in touch with him. He is home tonight.

Kenbridge

04-07-2005, 01:42 PM

After reading this post I remembered I have The Master Handicapper,I used it in College when I could keep an eye on the odds.If anyone is interested in buying or trading send me a pm or email.

I have The Master Handicapper with all the tapes,disks and manual.Ill also include the Master Key seminar with all the tapes and manual.I paid over $1000 for all of it,made my money back while I was using it but stopped when I graduated and had to get a job.:mad: I can send pictures of the program to anyone that is interested.

Thanks

First_Place

04-07-2005, 06:41 PM

"Is there anything you can tell us as to HOW your friend uses the program to make his selections?"

Feel free to discuss such matters here:

Handicapping Magic

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/handicappingmagic/

Best regards,

FP :)

Kenbridge

04-08-2005, 06:26 PM

jorge jaramillo

04-08-2005, 11:13 PM

HI....HOW MUCH MONEY ARE YOU ASKING FOR THE SOFTWARE..?? THANK YOU..........AWAITING YOUR REPLAY...............JORGE.......

andicap

04-09-2005, 10:29 PM

Jack,
Considering that my buddy paid 1200 beans years ago for it and it is still working today I would say you got a great deal!

I will write him or call tonite and ask if he would post. He knows a great deal about the program.

If he is reluctant to do so I will give him your email address ok?
Good luck with the program
Richie

Shanta,

this is a long shot, but your friend's initials aren't SM are they?

shanta

04-10-2005, 07:53 PM

Shanta,

this is a long shot, but your friend's initials aren't SM are they?

Andicap,
No but I do know Sammy very well. My friend and him are long time friends and users of TMH. I will tell him you were asking for him.
Richie :)

andicap

04-11-2005, 02:29 PM

Rferguson

04-12-2005, 07:02 AM

Still never got an answer as to how much you were asking for the master handicapper program with dongle. I think that it takes the bris multifile is that correct?
Ron F

shanta

04-12-2005, 08:12 AM

Small world,

I wish I could get out to Jersey for a day/night at the M with him. We could do a face-off TMM vs. HTR. :D

Is he still working at that hotel? Last I talked to him he had a fiancee. We spent hours on the phone talking about TEH, TMM, all that Pizzolla stuff I never got around to buying.

BTW, I might have asked you this before, but where in New Rochelle are you? I'm up north, near the Davis School and work out of my home. (Right now I'm goofing off.) Do you play mainly out of your home?

Andicap,
He got married and relocated out west. I will definitely tell him you are asking for him. I usually hook up with him later in week.

I live on Shore Road right at entrance to Glen Island Andi. Across from Eddie Foy Park.

I travel to Meadowlands 3 to 5 days a week to wager.

Take care,
Richie :)

burt

04-12-2005, 05:26 PM

the program uses handicapper dailey files.

Rferguson

04-12-2005, 07:14 PM

Mine takes the bris multifile

Kenbridge

04-12-2005, 10:08 PM

Still never got an answer as to how much you were asking for the master handicapper program with dongle. I think that it takes the bris multifile is that correct?
Ron F

Sorry the program has been sold and was delivered yesterday by USPS.For those that may be interested we have a bunch of handicapping books up for bid on ebay.Books by Cramer,Sarting,Pizzola,Quinn.There will be some more added over the next few days.Here is a link to all of our books and software:

http://search.ebay.com/_W0QQsassZtricia351

andicap

04-12-2005, 10:22 PM

99 cents for Pace Makes the Race, boy, Dick Schmidt, that will keep you humble! :D :D

Still four days left tho.

Kenbridge

04-14-2005, 02:35 PM

99 cents for Pace Makes the Race, boy, Dick Schmidt, that will keep you humble! :D :D

Still four days left tho.

Oh boy,I hope I didnt insult Mr. Schmidt! I forgot he posted here.:bang: Actually it is up to over $8 now,and the lot that includes Sartins Follow Up (which he edited) and A Week at the Races With Two Pros ( co-author) is over $30.I also added another lot of 4 money management books,starting at...... 0.99 cents!

burt

04-18-2005, 08:50 PM

in case anyone is interested there is a master handicapper program going off on e-bay in about 6 hrs.

ratpack

04-18-2005, 09:15 PM

What is the difference between the Master Handicapper and Master Magician

Lefty

04-18-2005, 10:32 PM

Chris, the Master Magician is based on the PBS nos. and PPF numbers. The Master Handicapper based on the TPR nos. that were created by Tom Hambelton underr the auspices of Dr. Sartin. I have seen both and I think he should go back to supporting The Master Handicapper.

garyoz

04-20-2005, 12:06 PM

Several years ago, I.T.S, the handicapping daily company, sent me a free copy of Handicapping Magic--Pizzola's book. I probably got it because I purchased software from them in the past and used their past performances periodically in the past. For the first time, I gave the book a close read last night. As I understand it, The Handicapping Magician software (and the approach in the book) uses two primary metrics. The first is PBS, the Pace Balanced Speed rating. I was surprised to see that this is based on the old DRF speed rating, the one that is based upon a one point reduction for each fifth of a second off the track record. I found this amazing, as I thought most players discounted that number decades ago. The speed figure is adjusted based upon pace factors using the raw projected times of the projected leader--providing the PBS.

The second metric, PPF is a measure of the final fraction, adjusted on a raw time basis using lengths behind. The metric is normalized against the final fraction of the projected leader.

He downplays any variant adjustments, and uses the DRF variant for any adjustments the user may choose to make. Once again certainly unorthodox at these times. Others have been proponents of raw time. I believe Bradshaw's Aodds program primarily used raw times, and HDW's RS-Pos data uses raw times to a large degree (I think) There are other interesting concepts in the book, primarily, the fulcrum pace and an algorithm for pace line selection (LASST). But still a really uncomplicated (simplistic?) approach for $400-plus software.

I'm not trying to provide a review on book that has been out for 5 years, but rather understand the underpinnings of the approach. There always appear to be alot of vocal supporters and true believers for Handicapping Magic. Perhaps all the variant adjustment, fancy speed figures, etc have become so conventional that measures based upon unadjusted measures such as the DRF speed figure and raw times provide real value. It is certainly a KISS approach.

Lefty

04-20-2005, 12:24 PM

gary, you're right on with your assessments. Have you been exposed to TMH? I think it's a much better prgm. Be interested in your thghts.

garyoz

04-20-2005, 01:52 PM

Lefty, thanks for confirming my take. Not familiar with TMH. Just what I've read here.

ratpack

04-20-2005, 02:01 PM

I am just in the process of rereading the book again and I am not familiar with TMH at all but part of HM is not just the 2 speed figures, it is also the Fulcurm horse and the way in which he opens the form cycle.

46zilzal

04-20-2005, 02:40 PM

I was surprised to see that this is based on the old DRF speed rating, the one that is based upon a one point reduction for each fifth of a second off the track record. I found this amazing, as I thought most players discounted that number decades ago.

What goes around comes around. In Sartin's Follow Up a Nevada organziation called Sports Eye found that the OLD DRF speed rating (standing alone vs. the NEWER ratings Beyers etc.) were MORE predictive..go figure.

garyoz

04-20-2005, 04:01 PM

it is also the Fulcurm horse and the way in which he opens the form cycle.

I mentioned the Fulcrum (usually the horse with the fastest EP in the last race providing it was "good"--defined as within 5 lengths at the EP and Finish. The Form Cycle is the LASST approach. Didn't mean to say there was nothing in the book. It is actually better than most.

ratpack

04-20-2005, 04:40 PM

I mentioned the Fulcrum (usually the horse with the fastest EP in the last race providing it was "good"--defined as within 5 lengths at the EP and Finish. The Form Cycle is the LASST approach. Didn't mean to say there was nothing in the book. It is actually better than most.

I read lots of the old posts and it seem they either love it or hate the program

One thing that I got from the posts was that you seem to have to pick your spots with that program. Try to find a horse with a "GAP" in the numbers with good odds that the LAAST and the Two Excuse agree one. Then Key that horse with the other contenders and hope for a signer.

I know I am being a bit simplistic but I did not get from the posts I read that this is a bet every race type of program.

Lefty

04-20-2005, 07:37 PM

gary, about the DRF Speed Rating: It's no longer based on track records but 3yr best times for every trk. And 46 is right, A few yrs ago it was determined the DRF speed rating better than the paid for speed figs.

Blackgold

04-20-2005, 08:26 PM

TMM helps me search for situations where I have such a huge edge, that even if I'm wrong a lot, which I am, I more than get compensated for those loses when I'm right.

Any money making situation is about picking your spots.

If you are in real estate and buy (bet on) every property you look at, you won't be in real esate very long, except when you occupy a track of land where they plant daisies on top of you.

garyoz

04-20-2005, 09:30 PM

Hey, I've got nothing against making money. I can appreciate the somewhat unconventional approach of raw figures and the DRF SR.

In terms of the DRF+SR study. I think the only third party speed figure study I know of was from 1994 by Sportstat. I happen to have a copy. Yes, the DRFspeed rating +variant outperformed most other speed figures. For best last race for all tracks it generated about 21.6% winners and a negative ROI of about 17%. However if you use best of last three DRF speed figure + track variant you had almost 19% winners and an respectable negative ROI of 4%. However if you used the DRF speed rating alone, the number fell to a negative ROI of 23% and 18%. So you had to combine the DRF speed figs with the variant. Perhaps they were so successful because they are not in wide use. For both last race and best of last 3, Beyers showed about 25% win but a negative ROI of 17%. I bet that has fallen even farther.

Incidently, Ragozin figures (although they should never be used in a best last or best one of last 3 approach) did the best, showing a flat ROI and positive ROI if only bet at levels of 4 to 1 or better.

This is an old study. Anyone with more recent data, please jump in. From what I see the HM approach looks as valid as any other.

kingfin66

04-21-2005, 12:14 AM

gary, you're right on with your assessments. Have you been exposed to TMH? I think it's a much better prgm. Be interested in your thghts.

If by "right on" you mean making incorrect statements and errors of omission, then garyoz is "right on."

I'm not going to get into a big argument about whether people should, or shouldn't use HM methods, but I feel compelled to set the record straight about a couple of things garyoz wrote.

1) gary oz wrote: The second metric, PPF is a measure of the final fraction, adjusted on a raw time basis using lengths behind. The metric is normalized against the final fraction of the projected leader.

The metric, as garyoz calls it, is actually normalized against the Fulcrum horse. The Fulcrum horse is not the projected leader of the race.

2) garyoz summarized - I know it wasn't a review - the book by the simplicity of the PBS and PPF ratings. I agree, they are very simple. In fact, they are just too raw for many players. What garyoz failed to point out were the large chapters pertaining to Form Cycle Windows and pace analysis. These chapters are very significant parts of the HM methodolgy and are actually much more important than the rudimentary (my word) ratings used in HM.

That's all I have to say about that...for now.

Lefty

04-21-2005, 02:44 AM

garyoz

04-21-2005, 10:06 AM

If by "right on" you mean making incorrect statements and errors of omission, then garyoz is "right on."

I'm not going to get into a big argument about whether people should, or shouldn't use HM methods, but I feel compelled to set the record straight about a couple of things garyoz wrote.

1) gary oz wrote: The second metric, PPF is a measure of the final fraction, adjusted on a raw time basis using lengths behind. The metric is normalized against the final fraction of the projected leader.

The metric, as garyoz calls it, is actually normalized against the Fulcrum horse. The Fulcrum horse is not the projected leader of the race.

Certainly not intentional ommission, just trying to figure out with the computer calculates. I stand corrected on the Fulcrum Pace, it is not the projected leader just the horse who had the fastest time for the half mile in a sprint and 6 furlong in a route in a "good race" in its last start. Nuanced, but still a horse close to the lead.

I've got nothing against HM--thank you for correcting the record.

kingfin66

04-21-2005, 10:16 AM

garyoz,

That was my only intention, to correct the record. I don't think, by your tone, that you meant to intentionally slam, mislead, or anything like that.

Lefty, I was simply pointing out a couple of mistakes. You failed to note them in your fervor to agree with garyoz, so I was setting the record straight. As for which is better, I really couldn't tell you as I have never used TMH. But, like I said, I wasn't trying to make an argument, just some corrections.

Enjoy your day. Win some $$$.

Bob Harris

04-21-2005, 01:00 PM

king, wellllll, if ya want to be pedantic about it.
I still think TMH the better prgm and I think Pizzolla created MM to sell more prgms after he saturated the mkt for TMH and I think for what he charged for TMH that it's a disgrace he doesn't keep the pars uptodate.

Lefty,

Eric was in the process of blending TMH and MM before he died...not sure if that project will ever get finished now. The TMH numbers were certainly more predictive.

The pars issue always bugged me too so I would spend an afternoon each year and punch in the new pars that Gordon Pine published...not sure it really matters all that much...Michael has the original pars in his version (I gave him some numbers for the tracks that had opened after the software was released but otherwise he always used the original pars) and everytime we would work the same race we would almost always end up on the same horses. Many people have written about "good enough" numbers and the longer I play the more I think the authors are correct.

Bob

Lefty

04-25-2005, 11:01 PM

Thanks, Bob. I wasn't aware of that. Damn shame about Eric

I put on another thread and i'll also put it here. Anybody got a TMH they want to trade? Let me know.

Lefty

04-25-2005, 11:19 PM

king, thanks. I wasn't trying to argue either; lord knows get enough of that in offtopic. I thght he had the gist of it and it has been awhile since I read the book. I'm impressed with Mike's ppf nos. but not with the pbs nos. On the whole, better than the avg book or prgm. In fact, I saw Mike's seminar tape and he came up with some great scores, all before the race.
You win some $$$ too.