Derby Future Pool 1

[PowerUpPaynter]

Good Day,

Lets talk some future pool. What you think Nyquist will open at?

here are a few predictions

Field 3/5
Nyquist 12/1
Moheyman 15/1
Swipe 20/1
Greenpointcrusader 30/1
Brody's Cause 30/1
Exaggerator 30/1
Cocked And Loaded 35/1
Mor Spirit 40/1
Sail Ahoy 40/1
Amis Gizmo 50/1
Gift Box 50/1
Unbridled Outlaw 50/1
Whitmore 50/1

[Stillriledup]

Good Day,

Lets talk some future pool. What you think Nyquist will open at?

here are a few predictions

Field 3/5
Nyquist 99/1
Moheyman 15/1
Swipe 20/1
Greenpointcrusader 30/1
Brody's Cause 30/1
Exaggerator 12/1
Cocked And Loaded 35/1
Mor Spirit 4/1
Sail Ahoy 40/1
Amis Gizmo 50/1
Gift Box 50/1
Unbridled Outlaw 50/1
Whitmore 50/1

FTFY lol

[Spalding No!]

Why is Nyquist so well hated?

I understand he looked like he was getting worse with distance visually and Beyer wise, mostly based on his Frontrunner performance, but didn't he go a long way in erasing that perception by winning the BC to stay unbeaten?

In retrospect, the Frontrunner was not too bad. He was sent up between horses going into the first turn and was knocked about a bit by Go Long. He was challenged briefly by Swipe midstretch, but was pulling away at the wire. It was several lengths back to the 3rd place finisher, the very well bred Hollywood Don, who made a strong bid on the far turn. Swipe came back to run 2nd in the BC (as he has done all year), so the quality of horses he was beating in CA clearly translated to the national stage.

Meanwhile, Songbird has been running faster, but she is not certain to head down the Derby path or handle males. Pedigree is solid towards a middle distance, which hasn't been a problem in recent classics.

[PowerUpPaynter]

FTFY lol


FTFY? thats a new one to me. i have no idea what that means mate

[PowerUpPaynter]

Why is Nyquist so well hated?

I understand he looked like he was getting worse with distance visually and Beyer wise, mostly based on his Frontrunner performance, but didn't he go a long way in erasing that perception by winning the BC to stay unbeaten?

In retrospect, the Frontrunner was not too bad. He was sent up between horses going into the first turn and was knocked about a bit by Go Long. He was challenged briefly by Swipe midstretch, but was pulling away at the wire. It was several lengths back to the 3rd place finisher, the very well bred Hollywood Don, who made a strong bid on the far turn. Swipe came back to run 2nd in the BC (as he has done all year), so the quality of horses he was beating in CA clearly translated to the national stage.

Meanwhile, Songbird has been running faster, but she is not certain to head down the Derby path or handle males. Pedigree is solid towards a middle distance, which hasn't been a problem in recent classics.



Songbird they said ill not target the derby and Nyquist they say will only race twice til b4 derby if he wins both of those he is sure to be the derby favorite

[davew]

Why is Nyquist so well hated?


good horses from CA are always hated if you live East of the Mississippi, until they can prove they are good on the east...

[Spalding No!]

good horses from CA are always hated if you live East of the Mississippi, until they can prove they are good on the east...
I think it's a little more specific in this case then a presumed East coast bias.

Sort of like Fly So Free in 1991, when he was running the table all winter, yet was never taken seriously as far as the Derby was concerned.

Of course, he could only manage 5th at Churchill, so maybe I shouldn't give my hopes up.

[tanner12oz]

This is the 3rd early pool...year 1 only 1 horse from poll one made it to the gate..however last year I want to say more the half the field made it to the gate with AP being a choice in pool one winning. Very small sample size thus far but just letting yall know...personally I'll be throwing at least a couple bucks on swipe

[Tall One]

FTFY? thats a new one to me. i have no idea what that means mate

FTFY--Fixed That For You

[PowerUpPaynter]

This is the 3rd early pool...year 1 only 1 horse from poll one made it to the gate..however last year I want to say more the half the field made it to the gate with AP being a choice in pool one winning. Very small sample size thus far but just letting yall know...personally I'll be throwing at least a couple bucks on swipe


I like Swipe too. I wonder if they will both be pointed toward the California prep season.


And likewise I always find it interesting where these contenders will spend the winter. i.e. California, Florida, NY, Louisiana, ect

The horses prepping in Florida past few years have done nothing. and teh NY prep circuit hasnt produced much recently. Although Frosted had a good campaign.

[Spalding No!]

The horses prepping in Florida past few years have done nothing.
In the last 8 years, Florida has produced 3 Kentucky Derby winners (Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb), a Preakness winner (Shackleford), and a Belmont winner (Union Rags).

[Tall One]

The horses prepping in Florida past few years have done nothing. and teh NY prep circuit hasnt produced much recently. Although Frosted had a good campaign.


Frosted started down the Derby trail in Miami, but finished in NY. He shipped north after the troubles in the FoY.

[tanner12oz]

In the last 8 years, Florida has produced 3 Kentucky Derby winners (Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb), a Preakness winner (Shackleford), and a Belmont winner (Union Rags).

keeneland poly kinda screwed things up for a couple years with horses avoiding the KY path

[Spalding No!]

keeneland poly kinda screwed things up for a couple years with horses avoiding the KY path
Nevertheless, 2 Derby winners (Street Sense, Animal Kingdom) prepped there as well as Belmont winner Palace Malice and classic-placed Dullahan and Hard Spun.

[Stillriledup]

Why is Nyquist so well hated?

I understand he looked like he was getting worse with distance visually and Beyer wise, mostly based on his Frontrunner performance, but didn't he go a long way in erasing that perception by winning the BC to stay unbeaten?

In retrospect, the Frontrunner was not too bad. He was sent up between horses going into the first turn and was knocked about a bit by Go Long. He was challenged briefly by Swipe midstretch, but was pulling away at the wire. It was several lengths back to the 3rd place finisher, the very well bred Hollywood Don, who made a strong bid on the far turn. Swipe came back to run 2nd in the BC (as he has done all year), so the quality of horses he was beating in CA clearly translated to the national stage.

Meanwhile, Songbird has been running faster, but she is not certain to head down the Derby path or handle males. Pedigree is solid towards a middle distance, which hasn't been a problem in recent classics.

He's not hated, this is a who's going to win the derby thread, he's not winning any ky derbies, it's not personal towards the horse, he's just not a derby horse, he's winning now due to just developing faster than a lot of horses, the good ones will catch up to him in due time.

[davew]

He's not hated, this is a who's going to win the derby thread, he's not winning any ky derbies, it's not personal towards the horse, he's just not a derby horse, he's winning now due to just developing faster than a lot of horses, the good ones will catch up to him in due time.


This is a what will the ML odds for pool one be - not what Stillrildup's probability line is.

when does the first pool open? later this month?

I wonder if they will list Songbird -
I feel Nyquist will have a ML near 10/1

[PowerUpPaynter]

i think its this week.

[PowerUpPaynter]

i think its this week.

nope, im wrong. next week 11/27-11/30

[ReplayRandall]

Good Day,

Lets talk some future pool. What you think Nyquist will open at?

here are a few predictions

Field 3/5
Nyquist 12/1
Moheyman 15/1
Swipe 20/1
Greenpointcrusader 30/1
Brody's Cause 30/1
Exaggerator 30/1
Cocked And Loaded 35/1
Mor Spirit 40/1
Sail Ahoy 40/1
Amis Gizmo 50/1
Gift Box 50/1
Unbridled Outlaw 50/1
Whitmore 50/1


Here's what you can get currently through the Wynn future odds book:

15-1 Nyquist 12/1
30-1 Mohayman 15/1
20-1 Swipe 20/1
60-1 Greenpointcrusader 30/1
25-1 Brody's Cause 30/1
40-1 Exaggerator 30/1
85-1 Cocked And Loaded 35/1
30-1 Mor Spirit 40/1
35-1 Sail Ahoy 40/1
125-1 Amis Gizmo 50/1
75-1 Gift Box 50/1
150-1 Unbridled Outlaw 50/1
N/L Whitmore 50/1

[egreen]

The first pool this year is the new sire bet, not individual horses as in the past 2 years. That just didn't work in November.

[tanner12oz]

The first pool this year is the new sire bet, not individual horses as in the past 2 years. That just didn't work in November.

yeah this is much better idea lol

[PowerUpPaynter]

yeah this is much better idea lol



wait what? no individual horse bets on the first pool? or two separate pools?

[davew]

The first pool this year is the new sire bet, not individual horses as in the past 2 years. That just didn't work in November.

they might as well have the first letter of winning horses name....

[egreen]

No individual horses in pool 1, only sires. CD finally realized how absurd it was to only offer 23 horses in November. Given marketing costs and the split with horsemen and wagering providers, they may have broken even with this, but I suspect CD lost a little money in each year.

[tanner12oz]

I crushed the first pool ..didnt play last year. Any angles to speak of with this goofy sire bet? I imagine recent sires will get alot of play, previous derby winners

[Stillriledup]

I lowered exaggerator in OPs thread.

Ya welcome. ;)

[letswastemoney]

I don't expect too much from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile group. They just seem like the kind of horses that are very similar to each other and will never stand out too much...although Exaggerator ran well at Delta Downs.

Some fresh faces will emerge soon.

[PowerUpPaynter]

2016 Derby Future Wager Pool 1 (Thursday-Sunday)
Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia
1. Airoforce 20-1
2. Annual Report 30-1
3. Brody's Cause 15-1
4. Cocked and Loaded 30-1
5. Conquest Big E 50-1
6. Drefong 30-1
7. Exaggerator 30-1
8. Flexibility 30-1
9. Gift Box 30-1
10. Greenpointcrusader 30-1
11. Gun Runner 30-1
12. Matt King Coal 20-1
13. Mohaymen 15-1
14. Mor Spirit 20-1
15. Nyquist 10-1
16. Rated R Superstar 50-1
17. Riker 30-1
18. Sail Ahoy 30-1
19. Sunny Ridge 50-1
20. Swipe 15-1
21. Synchrony 30-1
22. Toews On Ice 30-1
23. Unbridled Outlaw 30-1
24. Mutuel Field (All Others) 7-5


2016 Derby Sire Future Wager Pool 1 (Thursday-Sunday)
1. Awesome Again 50-1
2. Bernardini 30-1
3. Blame 30-1
4. Candy Ride 30-1
5. Curlin 30-1
6. Distorted Humor 20-1
7. Eskendereya 30-1
8. Ghostzapper 30-1
9. Giant's Causeway 20-1
10. Hard Spun 30-1
11. Harlan's Holiday 30-1
12. Kitten's Joy 30-1
13. Malibu Moon 20-1
14. Medaglia D'Oro 20-1
15. Pioneerof the Nile 15-1
16. Scat Daddy 30-1
17. Street Sense 30-1
18. Super Saver 50-1
19. Tapit 15-1
20. Tiznow 20-1
21. Unbridled's Song 20-1
22. Uncle Mo 20-1
23. War Front 20-1
24. All Other Sires 1-1

[PowerUpPaynter]

Nyquist 10-1, Unclie Mo 20-1 hmmm

[tanner12oz]

2016 Derby Future Wager Pool 1 (Thursday-Sunday)
Morning line odds by Mike Battaglia
1. Airoforce 20-1
2. Annual Report 30-1
3. Brody's Cause 15-1
4. Cocked and Loaded 30-1
5. Conquest Big E 50-1
6. Drefong 30-1
7. Exaggerator 30-1
8. Flexibility 30-1
9. Gift Box 30-1
10. Greenpointcrusader 30-1
11. Gun Runner 30-1
12. Matt King Coal 20-1
13. Mohaymen 15-1
14. Mor Spirit 20-1
15. Nyquist 10-1
16. Rated R Superstar 50-1
17. Riker 30-1
18. Sail Ahoy 30-1
19. Sunny Ridge 50-1
20. Swipe 15-1
21. Synchrony 30-1
22. Toews On Ice 30-1
23. Unbridled Outlaw 30-1
24. Mutuel Field (All Others) 7-5


2016 Derby Sire Future Wager Pool 1 (Thursday-Sunday)
1. Awesome Again 50-1
2. Bernardini 30-1
3. Blame 30-1
4. Candy Ride 30-1
5. Curlin 30-1
6. Distorted Humor 20-1
7. Eskendereya 30-1
8. Ghostzapper 30-1
9. Giant's Causeway 20-1
10. Hard Spun 30-1
11. Harlan's Holiday 30-1
12. Kitten's Joy 30-1
13. Malibu Moon 20-1
14. Medaglia D'Oro 20-1
15. Pioneerof the Nile 15-1
16. Scat Daddy 30-1
17. Street Sense 30-1
18. Super Saver 50-1
19. Tapit 15-1
20. Tiznow 20-1
21. Unbridled's Song 20-1
22. Uncle Mo 20-1
23. War Front 20-1
24. All Other Sires 1-1

lot of young sires on the list

[PowerUpPaynter]

The one thing I like about the sire bet is I can finally place that derby bet on Eskendereya that i thought I would do in 2010. Esky had such potential. Spring 2010 I loved that horse.

[davew]

lots of early money on -> all others

[sbcaris]

I wagered on all the Raise A Native sire line horses in that pool. There were 7 of them. Why? Because the Raise A Native sire line is the most prolific line for generating Derby winners. 19 winners since Majestic Prince in 1969. No other sire line has been that successful in getting Derby winners.

[PowerUpPaynter]

anyone know what happens to the futures exacta pool if it comes out field w field? they dont let you bet that. So does teh house just keep the money?

[Bennie]

Power - it goes to the "highest" finish position of a pool horse. If your horse finishes 10th and the first 9 horses are from "all others" you win. Don't remember who it was but someone on the site had the only horse from pool #1 that made the starting gate. All the horse had to do was cross the finish line to make him a winner. Even if dead last.

[PowerUpPaynter]

oh i see... damn should of done field w/ a couple of horses.

I just put a few bucks on a Swipe/ Nyquist box anyway...

I like the single bets better... Went heavy on Swipe and Mohayen then lighter on Drefong, Gift Box, Greenpointcrusader, Cocked and Loaded, and Airoforce

[Bennie]

Only played a small wager in pool #1 because of the unknown. Used a field with Mor Spirit and Swipe exacta box. Wanted to play Giants Causeway/Tapit/field sire box but must have been misinformed as to the days available because when I tried to make the wager that day it would not process.

[f2tornado]

Pool 1 for me is more of a gimmick play but I still look forward to it each year. I think I boxed Mohaymen and Swipe with the Field. I also boxed Airoforce with the Field as I like those dam side Buckpassers. For the Sire wager I put a small wager on Maglia D'Oro which would cover the Song Bird filly. I would like to think if that one keeps beating up the girls then still might take a route to play with the boys in May despite connection commentary suggesting otherwise. Boxed Maglia, Tapit, and Field. I will go a little heavier in the next wager Feb 12-14.