How can you wager big $ in this game?

[Kash$]

When.....

You dont know if Kent D(or any other jockey) is sober on the horse hes riding (and you may bet on him)?

You dont know if the horse you wagered isnt a different horse under the same name.See MVR thread

You dont know whether or not Broberg(or any other magic trainer is legit)

You dont whether your horse is being held in the gate?(EMD)

You dont know whether the stewards are even at the track.

I enjoy it but man its tough.

Honestly how can anyone wager real serious money in this game?

[thaskalos]

Easy question to answer.

Most of the large bettors are stuck a lot of money...and continuing to bet big is the only way they can get even.

[Kash$]

Easy question to answer.

Most of the large bettors are stuck a lot of money...and continuing to bet big is the only way they can get even.


Cheaters,Drugs,Deception,stealing,lies,crooks...so unds like something you would stay away from no?

And the game has trouble attracting new fans im a bit :confused:

[thaskalos]

For the vast majority of the bettors...horse racing is still the most convenient and affordable form of legalized gambling around. You get to sit in a warm environment, bet whatever you want to bet, sit idle for as long as you want...and no one bothers you by telling you that you have to keep betting in order to keep your seat. At the OTB that I frequent...there may be 30 people in the whole joint, but only 10 of them are doing any sort of regular betting. The rest bring $20 to the game, lose it...and then stay there for the rest of the day watching TV, drinking the free water, and making mind bets.

If not for the OTB...then, where would they go? There is a casino 5 minutes away, but the blackjack tables have a $25 minimum...and you have to keep betting in order to keep your seat. Sure...there are the penny and the nickle slots...but what self-respecting gambler would play a "mindless" game like that, when he could be engaging in an "intellectually stimulating" game like horse racing?

[MonmouthParkJoe]

For the vast majority of the bettors...horse racing is still the most convenient and affordable form of legalized gambling around. You get to sit in a warm environment, bet whatever you want to bet, sit idle for as long as you want...and no one bothers you by telling you that you have to keep betting in order to keep your seat. At the OTB that I frequent...there may be 30 people in the whole joint, but only 10 of them are doing any sort of regular betting. The rest bring $20 to the game, lose it...and then stay there for the rest of the day watching TV, drinking the free water, and making mind bets.

If not for the OTB...then, where would they go? There is a casino 5 minutes away, but the blackjack tables have a $25 minimum...and you have to keep betting in order to keep your seat. Sure...there are the penny and the nickle slots...but what self-respecting gambler would play a "mindless" game like that, when he could be engaging in an "intellectually stimulating" game like horse racing?

I completely agree with this statement.

I for one love it for the simple fact that you can invest small sums for a big return. I used to be an above average blackjack player, but it is such a grind and employing strategy made it more of a job than a pleasure. I love poker, but a cash game for a couple hours.

For those of us with young kids, some tracks allow us to get out for the day, place some bets and have a couple drinks. Sure beats sitting in Ruby Tuesdays slamming beers. Friends and family can wager small amounts and enjoy themselves. I used to bet big, but it became way too stressful with the rollercoaster ride. Now I play horizontally and enjoy the ride

[PaceAdvantage]

When.....

You dont know if Kent D(or any other jockey) is sober on the horse hes riding (and you may bet on him)?

You dont know if the horse you wagered isnt a different horse under the same name.See MVR thread

You dont know whether or not Broberg(or any other magic trainer is legit)

You dont whether your horse is being held in the gate?(EMD)

You dont know whether the stewards are even at the track.

I enjoy it but man its tough.

Honestly how can anyone wager real serious money in this game?Is this really much different from 30 years ago? I guess maybe you can say the magic trainer angle is different, but that's about it...

[Hambletonian]

Is this really much different from 30 years ago? I guess maybe you can say the magic trainer angle is different, but that's about it...

How about the computer guys sending a zillion bets in a millisecond straight into the mainframe? the days of overlays at most major circuits are done and gone.

[thaskalos]

Is this really much different from 30 years ago? I guess maybe you can say the magic trainer angle is different, but that's about it...
Not true. This maddening changing of the odds as the horses are running was non-existent 30 years ago.

[thaskalos]

How about the computer guys sending a zillion bets in a millisecond straight into the mainframe? the days of overlays at most major circuits are done and gone.
The racing industry has realised that the game cannot exist without this last-second "computer betting"...that's why the game is bending way backwards to accommodate those "computer guys". The "average player" has taken it on the chin for too long, and has either fled the game willingly...or has been forced into "early retirement".

Ask yourself this:

Who is chiefly responsible for most of the money that we see wagered in the game today? The racetracks are empty, and so are the OTBs...so, we know that the wagering is done by computer...but, WHO is doing this computer betting? Is it the "average guy" sitting in front of his computer screen as we speak...or is it those high-rebated "hustlers"...who have been afforded -- by the game -- the opportunity to tap into the very wagering software that the game employs...in order to access information and place bets in a manner inaccessible to the rest of us?

People say that there are legions of racing fans out there wagering serious money while pounding on computer keys. I used to believe that too...but not any longer. There was a period of several months a couple of years ago, when a political mix-up lead to the cancellation of ADW wagering in the entire state of Illinois. You could still bet the horses at the track or the OTBs...but you could not make a wager online. Now...I live in a major Chicago suburb, in close proximity to Arlington Park...and I thought that this ADW ban would surely lead to vastly increased business for the local track...and the surrounding OTBs. I mean...where else could the "average Joe" go to bet...right? Well...I was there practically every day...and the places were just as deserted as they ever were. The ADW ban lasted for MONTHS...but the local OTB business didn't benefit in the least.

They call the 1980s and the 90s, the "Golden Age of Handicapping"...because scores of enlightening books were published during that time period. Well...the curious fact is that the "experts" who had written these books are no longer active participants in this game...although the game is now more "accessible" than it's ever been. Some "experts" went back to teaching school...others went "fishing"...and others still went to Las Vegas, to drive taxi cabs. If the TEACHERS can't make it in this game...then, what hope is there for the STUDENTS?

You say that your betting handle has diminished greatly through the years...to the point where you are now hardly betting at all. Well, don't feel bad...because you are hardly the only one. Here at Paceadvantage, where some of the game's brightness minds congregate...the vast majority of the posters have declared that they now wager only a small percentage of what they used to bet in the past.

So...where is the money that we see on the board coming from? Who is betting it? Is it mainly the "average Joes"...or is it those mysterious, late-betting computer guys...whom the game is trying so hard to accommodate...to the detriment of everyone else? How can we find out...and, whom can we believe?

[rastajenk]

Not true. This maddening changing of the odds as the horses are running was non-existent 30 years ago.
So was full-scale simulcasting.

[Si2see]

I can agree with points made in this entire thread. Another one I can throw on the list is the actions of stewards. Sure their job is overall tough and they have to make judgement calls..... However the inconsistency from track to track, and sometimes on the same circuit amazes me at times.

I know the old saying that you will be moved up into as many winners as you are moved down, but there is no way to build that into your handicapping methods

Jason

[thaskalos]

So was full-scale simulcasting.
I was there when this "full-scale simulcasting" started...and this late-betting nonsense that we see today wasn't a part of it. It is definitely a more recent phenomenon.

[Tall One]

They let Red Mile simulcast full cards from Ellis--90 or 91--and that's the earliest I can remember around here. That was after their summer meet ended, but you'd thought it really was Christmas in July. :)

I want to say full simo cards split between Keeneland and The Mile was 93/94 maybe.

Either way, don't recall the odds changing like they do today.

[ronsmac]

I was there when this "full-scale simulcasting" started...and this late-betting nonsense that we see today wasn't a part of it. It is definitely a more recent phenomenon.
I agree. I didn't see big odds changes in the early and mid 90s. The big bets on Monarchos in the Florida derby was the 1st time i noticed it, and it received a big write up. There are some tracks today that you have no idea what the final odds are going to be.

[cbp]

Hong Kong.

[Stillriledup]

I agree. I didn't see big odds changes in the early and mid 90s. The big bets on Monarchos in the Florida derby was the 1st time i noticed it, and it received a big write up. There are some tracks today that you have no idea what the final odds are going to be.

But if you break slow you can be pretty confident that your horse will magically go up in price most of the time.

[ReplayRandall]

In the early 90's, the best times I ever had was going to the Upstairs Caliente Club in TJ, where you could bet on every track, greyhounds, all sports, presidential elections, the Oscars and most prop bets that even Vegas never offered, at that time. Talk about X-mas in July, it was that way 24/7-365 in good ol' TJ.....BTW, the food and drink was always fantastic.

[MJC922]

In the early 90's, the best times I ever had was going to the Upstairs Caliente Club in TJ, where you could bet on every track, greyhounds, all sports, presidential elections, the Oscars and most prop bets that even Vegas never offered, at that time. Talk about X-mas in July, it was that way 24/7-365 in good ol' TJ.....BTW, the food and drink was always fantastic.

Sounds awesome.

[Stillriledup]

Sounds awesome.

Yes, unfortunately, 'murruca' can't figure out a way to have similar options for its residents.

[AndyC]

In the early 90's, the best times I ever had was going to the Upstairs Caliente Club in TJ, where you could bet on every track, greyhounds, all sports, presidential elections, the Oscars and most prop bets that even Vegas never offered, at that time. Talk about X-mas in July, it was that way 24/7-365 in good ol' TJ.....BTW, the food and drink was always fantastic.

If you are talking about the first book across the border, I pretty much lived there when DMR wasn't running. Loved to play the house Q. I quit going when they started taxing the winning tickets.

[chiguy]

I believe it was called La Cupula or something like that. Great, cheap food and live races as well.

[ReplayRandall]

If you are talking about the first book across the border, I pretty much lived there when DMR wasn't running. Loved to play the house Q. I quit going when they started taxing the winning tickets.

No, you had to take a $3 cab ride to get to the club, go upstairs, entrance required buying a $100 voucher, get forms/programs and THEN they would let you in......Upscale place with tablecloths and Tuxedoed waiters.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not true. This maddening changing of the odds as the horses are running was non-existent 30 years ago.To be fair, this wasn't on his list.

[rastajenk]

I was there when this "full-scale simulcasting" started...and this late-betting nonsense that we see today wasn't a part of it. It is definitely a more recent phenomenon.You said 30 years ago. If you had said 20 years ago, I might not have responded like that. :p

[JohnGalt1]

Not true. This maddening changing of the odds as the horses are running was non-existent 30 years ago.

It also was non-existent right after the Breeder's Cup Pick Six scandal when tracks shut off betting just before horses entered the gates.

A way to solve this is to have tracks shut off betting when the first horse is locked in the gate.

[rastajenk]

If tracks were to do that, in any group of 10 bettors, one would be happy with that, one wouldn't care, and eight would be pissed off.

[AndyC]

No, you had to take a $3 cab ride to get to the club, go upstairs, entrance required buying a $100 voucher, get forms/programs and THEN they would let you in......Upscale place with tablecloths and Tuxedoed waiters.

Same deal where I went at the Puebla Amiga Plaza.

[ReplayRandall]

Same deal where I went at the Puebla Amiga Plaza.

They gave us our same table each time we went, with the same waiter. I believe his name was Raul. The only thing that turned me off about the club was when you used the restroom. When you went in the stall to do your business, there was a sign that stated, "put ALL toilet paper in provided waste basket, do not flush paper- City Ordinance of Tijuana".. :eek:

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I used to be driven crazy by the late change in odds that took place after the race started

This is caused by the way they suck in the pools to reflect the odds. At certain minutes to post, they capture the bets and the odds then reflect them. Unfortunately, when the race goes off wagering is locked but they still have to pull in the remaining wagers and the odds reflect that.

I have no idea why this isnt done in real time. I would like to think technology has come a long way. Same reason why I "get" why breakage still exists, yet we pay superfectas to the penny. We have the technology to pay to the exact cent, but they dont. A conservative estimate of breakage is half a percent of total handle, which at this point would be around $52 million that is "robbed" from us players. Makes the takeout that much more unbearable when you add this in.

[ReplayRandall]

A conservative estimate of breakage is half a percent of total handle, which at this point would be around $52 million that is "robbed" from us players. Makes the takeout that much more unbearable when you add this in.

When is comes to breakage, guess who the track pulls for every race? If you guessed the favorite, you'd be right. Using rounded figures for an example, let's say the win pool is 104K, minus the takeout = about 86K. Now let's say the breakage averages .10,(non-nickel breakage tracks) and the favorite wins the race, paying after breakage of $4.20---

That's 20,000 units x 4.20= 84K+2K breakage= 86K

20,000 x .10= $2000 in breakage

Now let's say a bomb hits the race and pays $42.80 to win

2,000 units x 42.80= 85.6K

2,000 x .10= $200 in breakage

The track loses $1800 in breakage just in the win pool when the bomb wins the race.

So once again I ask, who do you think the track's pulling for?

Bottom-line, abolish the breakage and give the player ALL the money they're due.....down to the last penny, period.

[thaskalos]

When is comes to breakage, guess who the track pulls for every race? If you guessed the favorite, you'd be right. Using rounded figures for an example, let's say the win pool is 104K, minus the takeout = about 86K. Now let's say the breakage averages .10,(non-nickel breakage tracks) and the favorite wins the race, paying after breakage of $4.20---

That's 20,000 units x 4.20= 84K+2K breakage= 86K

20,000 x .10= $2000 in breakage

Now let's say a bomb hits the race and pays $42.80 to win

2,000 units x 42.80= 85.6K

2,000 x .10= $200 in breakage

The track loses $1800 in breakage just in the win pool when the bomb wins the race.

So once again I ask, who do you think the track's pulling for?

Bottom-line, abolish the breakout and give the player ALL the money they're due.....down to the last penny, period.

Hence the reason for the track's reluctance to deal with the short fields that are plaguing the game today. The shorter the field...the more likely it is for the short-priced horses to win. :ThmbUp:

[Stillriledup]

When is comes to breakage, guess who the track pulls for every race? If you guessed the favorite, you'd be right. Using rounded figures for an example, let's say the win pool is 104K, minus the takeout = about 86K. Now let's say the breakage averages .10,(non-nickel breakage tracks) and the favorite wins the race, paying after breakage of $4.20---

That's 20,000 units x 4.20= 84K+2K breakage= 86K

20,000 x .10= $2000 in breakage

Now let's say a bomb hits the race and pays $42.80 to win

2,000 units x 42.80= 85.6K

2,000 x .10= $200 in breakage

The track loses $1800 in breakage just in the win pool when the bomb wins the race.

So once again I ask, who do you think the track's pulling for?

Bottom-line, abolish the breakage and give the player ALL the money they're due.....down to the last penny, period.

I disagree, if you give back breakage and pay off to the penny, the people collecting all those pennies will hold up betting lines. Except with dime supers that could quite often pay to the penny to ontrack patrons, also except for people with ADWs since they aren't holding up lines, but other than this, the majority of people are betting with cash ontrack so it's important to make sure people aren't holding up betting lines.

States gonna rob my penny
So I don't hold up dem lines
States gonna steal my penny
So I don't have bets that end in 9s

States gonna rob that penny
So they cat eat filet mignon tonight
States gonna heist that penny
So your pocket it's gonna be a bit light

States gonna theive that penny
They need it more than you
States gonna lift that penny
And there's nothin you can do

[v j stauffer]

I can agree with points made in this entire thread. Another one I can throw on the list is the actions of stewards. Sure their job is overall tough and they have to make judgement calls..... However the inconsistency from track to track, and sometimes on the same circuit amazes me at times.

I know the old saying that you will be moved up into as many winners as you are moved down, but there is no way to build that into your handicapping methods

Jason

Stewards are consistent until a person disagrees with a call. Then that person believes the stewards "consistency" has gone out the window.

For every person who feels a call was crap. There's another who's sure it's correct.

Can't win.

[v j stauffer]

In the early 90's, the best times I ever had was going to the Upstairs Caliente Club in TJ, where you could bet on every track, greyhounds, all sports, presidential elections, the Oscars and most prop bets that even Vegas never offered, at that time. Talk about X-mas in July, it was that way 24/7-365 in good ol' TJ.....BTW, the food and drink was always fantastic.

I was there during the 70's and 80's. Such great times. The Taco stand across the street from the clubhouse turn to this day is my favorite place to eat on the planet.

[v j stauffer]

I believe it was called La Cupula or something like that. Great, cheap food and live races as well.

Las Campanas was the hotel across from Caliente. You could get anything, and I mean ANYTHING there.

The best!

[v j stauffer]

I used to be driven crazy by the late change in odds that took place after the race started

This is caused by the way they suck in the pools to reflect the odds. At certain minutes to post, they capture the bets and the odds then reflect them. Unfortunately, when the race goes off wagering is locked but they still have to pull in the remaining wagers and the odds reflect that.

I have no idea why this isnt done in real time. I would like to think technology has come a long way. Same reason why I "get" why breakage still exists, yet we pay superfectas to the penny. We have the technology to pay to the exact cent, but they dont. A conservative estimate of breakage is half a percent of total handle, which at this point would be around $52 million that is "robbed" from us players. Makes the takeout that much more unbearable when you add this in.

The technology and fiber optics to show the bets in real time IS available. The tracks are too cheap to put up the money to install it.

[v j stauffer]

Randall

You really made me smile when I started thinking back about the old days at Caliente.

So Much FUN!

Got me thinking of the trainers and jocks that went through there when I was going every weekend in the 70's and 80's.

Jocks

Aurileano Noguez
Ramon Flores
Tony Noguez
Miguel Espindola
Carlos Delgadillo
David Flores ( yes that david flores )
Rafael Meza
Aaron Gryder
Miguel Yanez (refused to ride in the mud no matter what. Could be on 10 favorites would still take off)


Trainers

Wayne Spurling
Juan Garcia
Roberto Magana
Juan Guiterrez
Bob Ward
George Whitley
Pepe Magana
Alfredo Marquez
Jerry Howe

Ernie Meyers was the announcer.

Will Meyers was one the race racing secretaries I remember.

Think there was also a guy named Buck Hopkins.

The PR guy was Billy Von Wiessman.

Kay and June Thompson made the charts for DRF.

I'm sure I'm forgetting SO many.

Treasured memories.

I do remember the name of my very favorite horse.

He was a total machine horse. 100%

His name was Buddy O' Dell.

[Stillriledup]

Stewards are consistent until a person disagrees with a call. Then that person believes the stewards "consistency" has gone out the window.

For every person who feels a call was crap. There's another who's sure it's correct.

Can't win.

Calls I know are correct don't bother me nearly as much, it's not all the same. I believe stewards CAN 'win' by making sure any change to the physical order of finish is held to an extremely high standard. If you ask yourself "if this was the KY Derby, would we still make a change" (keeping in mind that there's a lot of physical contact in the derby that never gets punished)

People 'get over' NOT getting placed up but a DQ for large money, especially a nitpick call, can haunt you for life. I'm still haunted by a few big ones I suffered, but I can't name one race where I didnt win and didnt get placed up that I even remember.

[NorCalGreg]

I used to be driven crazy by the late change in odds that took place after the race started

This is caused by the way they suck in the pools to reflect the odds. At certain minutes to post, they capture the bets and the odds then reflect them. Unfortunately, when the race goes off wagering is locked but they still have to pull in the remaining wagers and the odds reflect that.

I have no idea why this isnt done in real time. I would like to think technology has come a long way. Same reason why I "get" why breakage still exists, yet we pay superfectas to the penny. We have the technology to pay to the exact cent, but they dont. A conservative estimate of breakage is half a percent of total handle, which at this point would be around $52 million that is "robbed" from us players. Makes the takeout that much more unbearable when you add this in.

Excellent post, Joe. It's obvious, when we entered the digital computer age, if we had demanded the end of the ridiculous breakage system....that money would simply be added to today's already exorbitant "rake".

The only comparison I can even think of with that old time breakage system:

They built the Bay Bridge here in the 30's after the GG Bridge...It's a known fact part of the deal to sell the measure to the public, with resulting bridge taxes and tolls was, the day that bridge was paid for-- free and clear---wasn't gonna be anymore tolls.
Nope....was gonna be totally free to cross--both ways. Well that fine day came and went 50, 60 yrs later. Wasn't even Free That Day.
Toll was probably a nickel when built.
Toll is $6.00 today.
Interesting thing is....it costs the $6 toll to go from Oakland to San Francisco.....to go the other way, from SF to Oakland----it's free.

[MJC922]

On those bets where breakage hurts the public most (like WPS) it would be far more palatable if they started to apply breakage at the ticket level instead. If you have a $10 place ticket on what should be $2.49 mutual the ticket should return $12.45 without breakage. If they want to take that down to $12.40 it seems to me that's at least staying with the original intent. Paying off at just $12.00 is a killer. Over 20% of the profit is siphoned off for no good reason.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

I used to think that the idea of paying out pennies would hold lines up, but let's be honest here, most days there is barely anyone at the track. Ten years ago about 4 percent of people wagered online, that number is now 26 percent. For those using an ADW or using self betting machines, there will be no holdup. With the exception of boutique meets, people shouldn't be waiting in line long.

What they may not see is the positive churn that would result from gamblers getting back more money if you eliminate breakage. The only issue arises if they take that money back and wager on another track. Then the host track doesn't benefit from the churn. With the state and tracks so used to getting this money each year, convincing them to give it back is laughable.
Same thing goes for the outs, or uncashed tickets. The states purge these every year. The reality it is more money they are taking that doesn't belong to them. Same as breakage, about a half a percent. Why not seed a pool with this money? While that would be nice, same premise as breakage, the state has been getting it for so long they will not give it up so easily

[Track Collector]

Some time ago I did a study to determine what the average breakage would be in the WPS pools. The breakage was determined to be:

Win Pool --> 0.85 percent
Place Pool --> 1.70 percent
Show Pool --> 2.55 percent

Since the WPS pool totals are lumped together, one can use the approximate distribution of 65%-25%-10% which gives:

Win Pool = 0.85 x .65 = .5525
Place Pool = 1.70 x .25 = .425
Show Pool = 2.55 x .10 = .255

Summing these up shows the average takeout rate across the entire WPS pool for all tracks is 1.23%.

(NOTE: Come to think of it, I recall the above was calculated using a 10-cent breakage. So 1.23% would be approximately true for 10-cent breakage tracks, and 0.615% would be approximately true for 5-cent breakage tracks.).

So, the effective WPS pool takeout for a track is the stated takeout rate PLUS one of the two above figures. Pretty sneaky.

[thaskalos]

I used to think that the idea of paying out pennies would hold lines up, but let's be honest here, most days there is barely anyone at the track. Ten years ago about 4 percent of people wagered online, that number is now 26 percent. For those using an ADW or using self betting machines, there will be no holdup. With the exception of boutique meets, people shouldn't be waiting in line long.

What they may not see is the positive churn that would result from gamblers getting back more money if you eliminate breakage. The only issue arises if they take that money back and wager on another track. Then the host track doesn't benefit from the churn. With the state and tracks so used to getting this money each year, convincing them to give it back is laughable.
Same thing goes for the outs, or uncashed tickets. The states purge these every year. The reality it is more money they are taking that doesn't belong to them. Same as breakage, about a half a percent. Why not seed a pool with this money? While that would be nice, same premise as breakage, the state has been getting it for so long they will not give it up so easily
The original notion of implementing "breakage" in order to do away with the inconvenience of having to pay out the odd "nickels and dimes" is nothing but a lame excuse. With the emergence of the 10-cent superfecta, the need to deal with these nickels and dimes has returned...so, what purpose is this "breakage" serving now?

This is thievery...plain and simple. Couple this with the millions of dollars that go uncollected annually because of horseplayer negligence...and we have a very serious amount of money which really belongs to the PLAYERS...but is stolen from them by the unscrupulous powers who are running this game. If they had any conscience...they would at least use the stolen money to fund some sort of retirement plan for these poor horses. But it seems that these crooks care only for their OWN retirement. :ThmbDown: :ThmbDown:

[Stillriledup]

Many tellers 'slow pay' anyway, you're not likely to see that penny or even wait around for it.

[TJDave]

In the early 90's, the best times I ever had was going to the Upstairs Caliente Club in TJ, where you could bet on every track, greyhounds, all sports, presidential elections, the Oscars and most prop bets that even Vegas never offered, at that time. Talk about X-mas in July, it was that way 24/7-365 in good ol' TJ.....BTW, the food and drink was always fantastic.

Several years back I was there with a few friends when 5 guys came in, guns drawn, and kidnapped someone. The place emptied out rather quickly. ;)

[thaskalos]

Several years back I was there with a few friends when 5 guys came in, guns drawn, and kidnapped someone. The place emptied out rather quickly. ;)
They didn't take any MONEY with them?

[TJDave]

They didn't take any MONEY with them?

No. The place was owned by the then TJ mayor and billionaire Jorge Hank. You'd have to be a total idiot to rob him.

[whodoyoulike]

...
Interesting thing is....it costs the $6 toll to go from Oakland to San Francisco.....to go the other way, from SF to Oakland----it's free.

Stop and really think about what you've written and you should understand why that is.

[Stillriledup]

Stop and really think about what you've written and you should understand why that is.

It's essentially 3 bucks each way, but it's more efficient from a traffic jam standpoint to grab the 6 all at once. It only hurts the people who cross the bridge and never return.

[whodoyoulike]

It's essentially 3 bucks each way, but it's more efficient from a traffic jam standpoint to grab the 6 all at once. It only hurts the people who cross the bridge and never return.

If you compare Oakland to San Fran 1/2 of the people there and most of the tourists visiting want out of Oakland and they realize are willing to pay and, you just have to wonder about those who want to go to Oakland from San Fran. They should be allowed to leave as easy as possible. If it was the other way around, Oakland would be well you know .....

[Elliott Sidewater]

I was there when this "full-scale simulcasting" started...and this late-betting nonsense that we see today wasn't a part of it. It is definitely a more recent phenomenon.
Me too, it was 1986. The late odds drop phenomenon is no mirage. I've been tracking this lately and although it varies from race to race, at least 30% of the WPS pool appears after the bell has rung. Occasionally, it's as high as 60%. The casual player is utterly helpless, he can't cancel his bet if his odds plummet, and can't bet more if the odds become more advantageous. Checkmate.

[thespaah]

Not true. This maddening changing of the odds as the horses are running was non-existent 30 years ago.
This has been covered. Ad nauseam.....
The facts are these.
There are two factors which cause this lag.
One, the sheer number of wagering sites flooding the hub with data mainly within 15 seconds of "off'.
There is only so much space on which that data can travel. We are limited to the speed of light...And that is only if the entire network is 100% fiber optic cable from source to interface.
As long as large volume bettors continue to bet the bell, this phenomenon of changing odds during the running of a race will continue.

[thespaah]

Hong Kong.
Please elaborate...

[thespaah]

But if you break slow you can be pretty confident that your horse will magically go up in price most of the time.
Then you are convinced there is rampant pas posting?

[Stillriledup]

Then you are convinced there is rampant pas posting?

No, but I think people are allowed to cancel bets they don't want after they watch the break.

[thaskalos]

This has been covered. Ad nauseam.....
The facts are these.
There are two factors which cause this lag.
One, the sheer number of wagering sites flooding the hub with data mainly within 15 seconds of "off'.
There is only so much space on which that data can travel. We are limited to the speed of light...And that is only if the entire network is 100% fiber optic cable from source to interface.
As long as large volume bettors continue to bet the bell, this phenomenon of changing odds during the running of a race will continue.
I have a question for you, Spaah...since you seem to have your finger right on the pulse of this phenomenon:

If this "sheer number of wagering sites flooding the hub with data" is really the culprit of these late odds changes that we see...then, why does this late money always seem to focus on one horse...instead of being more spread out...as it SHOULD be if it's coming from all sorts of different places?

[ultracapper]

If you compare Oakland to San Fran 1/2 of the people there and most of the tourists visiting want out of Oakland and they realize are willing to pay and, you just have to wonder about those who want to go to Oakland from San Fran. They should be allowed to leave as easy as possible. If it was the other way around, Oakland would be well you know .....

You have no idea how commuter tolls work, do you?

[thespaah]

Many tellers 'slow pay' anyway, you're not likely to see that penny or even wait around for it.
Read Tom Ainslie's book Complete Guide To Harness Racing"..One the chapters deals with this very issue.
The author recommends the bettor just stand there and wait for ALL of the money to be handed over by the teller.
I have experienced this. The give you the "what the hell are you waiting for" look.
I give them the "pay me the correct amount look".

[thespaah]

Stop and really think about what you've written and you should understand why that is.
Hmm If one uses the Geo Washington Br, Lincoln or Holland Tunnel, they pay to get into NYC.....It's free to go from NYC to NJ.....On the Tappan ZeeBr to the north of NYC, to get from Westchester over to Rockland County, motorists must pay a toll. To go the opposite direction across the Hudson, no toll.

[thespaah]

I have a question for you, Spaah...since you seem to have your finger right on the pulse of this phenomenon:

If this "sheer number of wagering sites flooding the hub with data" is really the culprit of these late odds changes that we see...then, why does this late money always seem to focus on one horse...instead of being more spread out...as it SHOULD be if it's coming from all sorts of different places?
Two words..Handicapping Programs....
Large volume bettors do not handicap races per se. They use sophisticated programs that calculate probability of a win and they also calculate odds as they relate to the value of the entry selected by the program.
So it would be logical to believe that the money would be focused on that one entry in a particular race.

[thaskalos]

Two words..Handicapping Programs....
Large volume bettors do not handicap races per se. They use sophisticated programs that calculate probability of a win and they also calculate odds as they relate to the value of the entry selected by the program.
So it would be logical to believe that the money would be focused on that one entry in a particular race.

THREE WORDS...""I don't agree".

Yes...those large-volume bettors use sophisticated programs which compute win probabilities...but this doesn't explain why the late action usually centers around only one horse. Is it your assumption that all these large-volume bettors use similar handicapping programs? If that were the case...then how could these players all expect to co-exist with one another?

These "sophisticated programs" that you mention calculate win probabilities for every horse in the field...and they wager on every single overlay that they spot in the race. Plus...these programs must also handicap the OTHER "sophisticated programs" out there...because, if they all end up making the same bets...then these large-volume bettors all end up losing a lot more money than they could cover with their rebates.

The late-late money that we see is so focused, and so accurate...that I am lead to believe that the "industry excuse" that you are repeating here is just that; an EXCUSE. The money ISN'T coming from "all over the place"...and it ISN'T spread across the entire field. And we'll NEVER know where this money is coming from...for TWO reasons:

A -- The racing industry doesn't want to alienate the culprits of this betting scheme...because angering them may mean lost revenue.

And B -- There are gullible horseplayers like YOU out there...who believe the excuses that the racing industry comes up with to explain away this outrage.

[Stillriledup]

THREE WORDS...""I don't agree".

Yes...those large-volume bettors use sophisticated programs which compute win probabilities...but this doesn't explain why the late action usually centers around only one horse. Is it your assumption that all these large-volume bettors use similar handicapping programs? If that were the case...then how could these players all expect to co-exist with one another?

These "sophisticated programs" that you mention calculate win probabilities for every horse in the field...and they wager on every single overlay that they spot in the race. Plus...these programs must also handicap the OTHER "sophisticated programs" out there...because, if they all end up making the same bets...then these large-volume bettors all end up losing a lot more money than they could cover with their rebates.

The late-late money that we see is so focused, and so accurate...that I am lead to believe that the "industry excuse" that you are repeating here is just that; an EXCUSE. The money ISN'T coming from "all over the place"...and it ISN'T spread across the entire field. And we'll NEVER know where this money is coming from...for TWO reasons:

A -- The racing industry doesn't want to alienate the culprits of this betting scheme...because angering them may mean lost revenue.

And B -- There are gullible horseplayers like YOU out there...who believe the excuses that the racing industry comes up with to explain away this outrage.

This is a fantastic point, why does the money that comes in that's not seen till its too late not seem to be coming from multiple teams of massive bettors? If there's a live runner who figures to be 1-1 as fair market value and he's sitting up there at 8-5 how do all the teams not congegrate on the same runner and turn him into a 2-5 or 1-5 shot? Is there only one big bettor in the country that wagers a Couple grand to make the 8-5 shot go to 1-1?

It's odd that the 'late late money' seems to not ever go 'overboard'.

[thespaah]

THREE WORDS...""I don't agree".

Yes...those large-volume bettors use sophisticated programs which compute win probabilities...but this doesn't explain why the late action usually centers around only one horse. Is it your assumption that all these large-volume bettors use similar handicapping programs? If that were the case...then how could these players all expect to co-exist with one another?

These "sophisticated programs" that you mention calculate win probabilities for every horse in the field...and they wager on every single overlay that they spot in the race. Plus...these programs must also handicap the OTHER "sophisticated programs" out there...because, if they all end up making the same bets...then these large-volume bettors all end up losing a lot more money than they could cover with their rebates.

The late-late money that we see is so focused, and so accurate...that I am lead to believe that the "industry excuse" that you are repeating here is just that; an EXCUSE. The money ISN'T coming from "all over the place"...and it ISN'T spread across the entire field. And we'll NEVER know where this money is coming from...for TWO reasons:

A -- The racing industry doesn't want to alienate the culprits of this betting scheme...because angering them may mean lost revenue.

And B -- There are gullible horseplayers like YOU out there...who believe the excuses that the racing industry comes up with to explain away this outrage.
I think you race harping on one issue. That issue appears to be tied to the conspiracy theory that there is past posting going on....Of course the late money is not spread across the entire field. The late money is also the smartest money. I'm not seeing a problem.
What I mean by "all over the place" is through the many ADW's or better stated, all those computers used by these large volume players.
Culprits? Of what? Betting the bell? There is a solution to that....Close the betting when the first horse loads.
The other?.. No cancelling of bets once the first horse loads. If there is a late scratch, everyone obn track and off track is afforded a refund on all wagers involving the scratched horse.
Tracks won't do it though. Neither will the ADW's.
So here we are..
Now, that is not the real issue. I was posting strictly as to the technical aspect of the system....I did not come here to be called names ( Gullible)...
Is there a reason you needed to do that?
Or is it just in your nature to insult people who disagree with you?
Interesting, I cannot recall myself ever insulting you....

[thespaah]

This is a fantastic point, why does the money that comes in that's not seen till its too late not seem to be coming from multiple teams of massive bettors? If there's a live runner who figures to be 1-1 as fair market value and he's sitting up there at 8-5 how do all the teams not congegrate on the same runner and turn him into a 2-5 or 1-5 shot? Is there only one big bettor in the country that wagers a Couple grand to make the 8-5 shot go to 1-1?

It's odd that the 'late late money' seems to not ever go 'overboard'.
"Too late"...For what?...Too late to change your bet and coat tail on the money of others?
And as far as large volume bettors crushing a horse down to less than 1-1, not the usual case. The ones I have spoken to seem to agree that not only are they looking for the best horse but the other important criteria is value. SO unless a horse is a virtual sure thing, these guys are not going to plunk down a ton of money if in doing so drops the price from say 9-5 down to 4-5...And that is not to ignore the aspect of their rebate which could be as much as 10%...Now see THAT is a problem. IMO the rebates these guys get are the main feature of how the game is tougher for the regular type bettors.
If the rebates disappeared, the large players would be forced to adjust their betting knowing full well it is ALL their money and not as little as 90% of their money that is being wagered.
look, the rub here is that until Fiber to Customer becomes the absolute norm, these lags in the system will exist.
Betting the bell, handicapping programs, cancelling bets ( which I think is BEE ESS) at the last nanno second, those are issues for another day...
My focus is on the tech stuff. And of course trying to figure out how to not get called names ( not you, another poster) such as "gullible", just for having an opinion

[raybo]

We can speculate about what causes the late, halfway through the race, odds drops, but none of us here (unless there are some here who actually exploit the tech system) knows everything about it. Since the pool money comes in from everywhere that has simulcasting or ADW coverage, and all that money has to be transferred from place of bet through the ADWs and simulcasting outlets, to the hub(s), then to the track, then handled by the track tote system, etc., there are bound to be late changes in the odds. But, with today's technology, that lag should be much shorter. The whole system has not employed the tech improvements that are readily available, for whatever reason. Heck, there can be a delay of a full minute or more between the "live" video odds you're watching and the betting pad tote odds from the same ADW site. That should be enough to tell any semi-intelligent person that the tech delays are real, not big conspiracies between the tracks/ADWs and the computer betting syndicates out there. Of course, those same computer betting syndicates are operating with very high speed computers and internet lines, which automatically gives them an advantage over those who are using slower computers and internet lines, but that's just a matter of priorities. The computer guys are really "businesses", while most of the rest are just gamblers. If you're serious about churning millions of dollars per day/week, then you will naturally be serious about the machines, software programs, internet hookups, etc., that you employ.

Whatever. The problem that is present, is the perception of dishonesty, and greed, within the industry. That is what really hurts the game. And, since the tracks run the game, one would think that they would be the leading advocates in addressing and reducing these issues. The worst thing about the whole mess is that the tracks don't seem to care enough to do something about it. But, of course, if they did something about it, they would lose some, if not all, of the churn the large computer betting syndicates are providing them. So, spend thousands and possibly lose millions, or turn your back on the problem and continue getting the millions. Which would you choose if you were them?

[AndyC]

.....Whatever. The problem that is present, is the perception of dishonesty, and greed, within the industry. That is what really hurts the game. And, since the tracks run the game, one would think that they would be the leading advocates in addressing and reducing these issues. The worst thing about the whole mess is that the tracks don't seem to care enough to do something about it. But, of course, if they did something about it, they would lose some, if not all, of the churn the large computer betting syndicates are providing them. So, spend thousands and possibly lose millions, or turn your back on the problem and continue getting the millions. Which would you choose if you were them?

To me it has far less to do with the perception of dishonesty as it does the reality of uncertainty.

You could have the bets reflected in real-time and still have a problem. You could shut off betting with the first to load and there would still have changing odds after bets have been made and you would be pissing off all players who get shut out.

Greed has little to do with the problem. There is not some easy fix that could happen if not for greed.

[raybo]

To me it has far less to do with the perception of dishonesty as it does the reality of uncertainty.

You could have the bets reflected in real-time and still have a problem. You could shut off betting with the first to load and there would still have changing odds after bets have been made and you would be pissing off all players who get shut out.

Greed has little to do with the problem. There is not some easy fix that could happen if not for greed.

The mere fact that people are discussing and speculating on the possibility of past posting and computer betting outfits having direct access to the tote software/feeds, exorbitant fees and takeouts, etc., is enough to fully support my assertions. If people think they are being cheated they will stop betting or at least curtail their betting. You can say all you want, but when these kinds of discussions take place as often as they do, then the industry has a very big problem, and if they don't fix it, eventually they won't have enough people betting to continue putting on the races, because when the regular customer leaves, the computer betting guys will have fewer people's money to take, and they'll move to another investment vehicle.

[Stillriledup]

"Too late"...For what?...Too late to change your bet and coat tail on the money of others?
And as far as large volume bettors crushing a horse down to less than 1-1, not the usual case. The ones I have spoken to seem to agree that not only are they looking for the best horse but the other important criteria is value. SO unless a horse is a virtual sure thing, these guys are not going to plunk down a ton of money if in doing so drops the price from say 9-5 down to 4-5...And that is not to ignore the aspect of their rebate which could be as much as 10%...Now see THAT is a problem. IMO the rebates these guys get are the main feature of how the game is tougher for the regular type bettors.
If the rebates disappeared, the large players would be forced to adjust their betting knowing full well it is ALL their money and not as little as 90% of their money that is being wagered.
look, the rub here is that until Fiber to Customer becomes the absolute norm, these lags in the system will exist.
Betting the bell, handicapping programs, cancelling bets ( which I think is BEE ESS) at the last nanno second, those are issues for another day...
My focus is on the tech stuff. And of course trying to figure out how to not get called names ( not you, another poster) such as "gullible", just for having an opinion

My point was this, if there's one large bettor who decides 8-5 is way too good of a price and he's willing to accept 1-1 (assuming horse sitting on tote at 8-5 with the last horse loading) how do all the other largest players in America not seem to all get the same idea at the same time? Lets say 3k is the amount that makes said 8/5 go to 1/1, if there are dozens of people who can easily afford to bet 3k, all it would take is 3 or 4 of them to see 8/5 and act with their own 3k, yet, it never seems to happen that way.

As far as me 'coattailing' these people, why would I want to coattail people that know less than I do as well as betting on a horse that's getting all the value sucked out?

[Poindexter]

To me it has far less to do with the perception of dishonesty as it does the reality of uncertainty.

You could have the bets reflected in real-time and still have a problem. You could shut off betting with the first to load and there would still have changing odds after bets have been made and you would be pissing off all players who get shut out.

Greed has little to do with the problem. There is not some easy fix that could happen if not for greed.

It is a very easy fix. You update the technology so they can update odds faster and you do not start loading the gate until the betting windows are closed and the final pools are displayed. End of subject. Bettors will adapt. We do not like getting shut out. It may take a little while, but we will adapt................I know it cost the racetracks money to close the pools earlier but as Raybo stated how much do they lose long term because of the perception of dishonesty. People have selective memory. They will not notice the 7 horses who get hammered from 7/5 to 4/5 and are still running, but they will never forget the 1 horse who goes from 9/5 to 4/5 opens up daylight 3 steps out of the gate and cruises. They should have a 120 second warning clock countdown showed on every monitor, so people know exactly when the pool is closing.

IF a horse breaks thru gate they can run, but be late scratched for wagering purposes. If there is a late scratch, they would need to unload and restart the process.

[Poindexter]

My point was this, if there's one large bettor who decides 8-5 is way too good of a price and he's willing to accept 1-1 (assuming horse sitting on tote at 8-5 with the last horse loading) how do all the other largest players in America not seem to all get the same idea at the same time? Lets say 3k is the amount that makes said 8/5 go to 1/1, if there are dozens of people who can easily afford to bet 3k, all it would take is 3 or 4 of them to see 8/5 and act with their own 3k, yet, it never seems to happen that way.

As far as me 'coattailing' these people, why would I want to coattail people that know less than I do as well as betting on a horse that's getting all the value sucked out?

I am just speculating here obviously, but my guess is that what you are saying (horses being hammered by multiple syndicates) does happen, and I assume through trial and error they learn just how much they can bet on these horses so they can remain profitable(after rebate). In other words I think they are anticipating what other groups will do when deciding how much to wager.

[Cholly]

It is a very easy fix. You update the technology so they can update odds faster and you do not start loading the gate until the betting windows are closed and the final pools are displayed. End of subject. Bettors will adapt. We do not like getting shut out. It may take a little while, but we will adapt................

Hey, it's intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer: Of course most bettors will adapt. They can count to ten. The only bettors who won't adapt are the ones currently enjoying the benefit of past posting.

Handle plummeted when they started closing the pools early back just after the Fix6 scandal (that showed to all just how secure the tote system is). Because some drunks at the OTB didn't get up to the window in time? Fug no. Handle plummeted because some big bettors who were past posting no longer had an advantage and ergo, no incentive to play.

[thaskalos]

I think you race harping on one issue. That issue appears to be tied to the conspiracy theory that there is past posting going on....Of course the late money is not spread across the entire field. The late money is also the smartest money. I'm not seeing a problem.
What I mean by "all over the place" is through the many ADW's or better stated, all those computers used by these large volume players.
Culprits? Of what? Betting the bell? There is a solution to that....Close the betting when the first horse loads.
The other?.. No cancelling of bets once the first horse loads. If there is a late scratch, everyone obn track and off track is afforded a refund on all wagers involving the scratched horse.
Tracks won't do it though. Neither will the ADW's.
So here we are..
Now, that is not the real issue. I was posting strictly as to the technical aspect of the system....I did not come here to be called names ( Gullible)...
Is there a reason you needed to do that?
Or is it just in your nature to insult people who disagree with you?
Interesting, I cannot recall myself ever insulting you....

There is nothing insulting about the word "gullible". "Gullible" is the exact opposite of the "conspiracy theorist"...and I have been called that plenty of times here...both by you -- and by several others. I haven't felt "insulted" in the least by it.

Yes...I had a reason to answer you the way that I did. Take a look at your post #52 here. I mentioned that these maddening late odds declines weren't there in the early full-card simulcast days, and that this is a more recent phenomenon...and you responded with:

"This has been covered. Ad nauseam...
The facts are these..."

Is this a POLITE response? "This has been covered before...ad nauseam"?. :rolleyes: You got "FACTS" about this, Spaah? Where did you get them? These aren't "facts",...this is the "company line", that's been spoon-fed to us by the industry ever since this odds decline disgrace first appeared. YOU may choose to believe it...but I don't. In either case...it does not qualify to be called a "fact"...because there is no proof at all attached to its validity. It's something that the industry considers "reasonable"...so they pass it on to the "gullible fan" (again, no offense meant)...in order to avoid having to deal with this late odds outrage, directly.

This isn't a minor issue. This disgrace has totally changed the game...IMO...and not for the better(bettor?). The knowledgeable horseplayer, who is forever in search of an "overlay", has now been placed in a position where he has no idea where his selection will wind up, odds-wise, once he puts his money down. At some racetracks, the horseplayer's position is HOPELESS...and we shouldn't wait until this becomes a major problem at the rest of the tracks too. The industry has to address this problem right now! Enough with the bullshit excuses.

[Stillriledup]

I am just speculating here obviously, but my guess is that what you are saying (horses being hammered by multiple syndicates) does happen, and I assume through trial and error they learn just how much they can bet on these horses so they can remain profitable(after rebate). In other words I think they are anticipating what other groups will do when deciding how much to wager.

They almost always seem to anticipate correctly.

[Nitro]

Hong Kong..
Thank you cbp! You’ve provided the most salient response on this entire thread, and I'll 2nd that! But you know what? I believe that players (particularly those losing) will find something to gripe about no matter where they play.

RE: Last minute Tote board activity. It’s beyond me why something so simple is not understood by so many players. Anyone who is an avid tote follower recognizes that during the entire betting cycle that the tote is updated every 60 seconds. The last update does NOT generally occur prior to or when the gate opens. But even if the last update was initiated 10 secs prior to the gate opening, it still means that the final tote flash would occur 50 secs into the race (or as some might have noticed that being beyond the ½ mile marker in any race, or less then ¼ mile from the finish in a 6F race) . So what’s the big deal? Is everyone betting on the same horses with their odds dropping? I think not. Besides as those odds are dropping others are rising. :jump:
.
.

[thespaah]

To me it has far less to do with the perception of dishonesty as it does the reality of uncertainty.

You could have the bets reflected in real-time and still have a problem. You could shut off betting with the first to load and there would still have changing odds after bets have been made and you would be pissing off all players who get shut out.

Greed has little to do with the problem. There is not some easy fix that could happen if not for greed.
Why would bettors get shut out? All they would have to do is do everything they do now, just one minute earlier.

[thespaah]

There is nothing insulting about the word "gullible". "Gullible" is the exact opposite of the "conspiracy theorist"...and I have been called that plenty of times here...both by you -- and by several others. I haven't felt "insulted" in the least by it.

Yes...I had a reason to answer you the way that I did. Take a look at your post #52 here. I mentioned that these maddening late odds declines weren't there in the early full-card simulcast days, and that this is a more recent phenomenon...and you responded with:

"This has been covered. Ad nauseam...
The facts are these..."

Is this a POLITE response? "This has been covered before...ad nauseam"?. :rolleyes: You got "FACTS" about this, Spaah? Where did you get them? These aren't "facts",...this is the "company line", that's been spoon-fed to us by the industry ever since this odds decline disgrace first appeared. YOU may choose to believe it...but I don't. In either case...it does not qualify to be called a "fact"...because there is no proof at all attached to its validity. It's something that the industry considers "reasonable"...so they pass it on to the "gullible fan" (again, no offense meant)...in order to avoid having to deal with this late odds outrage, directly.

This isn't a minor issue. This disgrace has totally changed the game...IMO...and not for the better(bettor?). The knowledgeable horseplayer, who is forever in search of an "overlay", has now been placed in a position where he has no idea where his selection will wind up, odds-wise, once he puts his money down. At some racetracks, the horseplayer's position is HOPELESS...and we shouldn't wait until this becomes a major problem at the rest of the tracks too. The industry has to address this problem right now! Enough with the bullshit excuses.
Look , you getting pissed off at me just for having a point of view with which you do not agree isn't getting anyone anywhere.
Yes, those are the facts. My neighbor is a fiber network manager for a major long haul telco. If there is any knowledge to be gained, it would be a person such as that... One more thing. If you have not read my posts skewering track managements, you missed the opportunity to see that I am in no way toeing any company line.
Now, one issue we must all face is that 100% fiber optic network connections capable of fast as the speed of light data transfer is cost prohibitive. It is becoming the norm, but the process is not as rapid as we'd like to be.
One issue is rights of way. Most of the routes for the fiber my friend handles run along rail road rights of way. These rights of way are not in anyway inexpensive to acquire.
Another aspect of the fiber network is that back ups for the back ups have to be included in the build of the systems....Again, not cheap.
I find the odds changes after the break to be bothersome. You appear to find them infuriating.
You and I are on different paths. When I handicap, I am looking for winning wagers. You look strictly at value. Hence the odds drops effect your play more than they do mine.
And yes ad nauseam is as polite as it gets because the issue has been beaten to a pulp. You getting upset with me is you directing your 'upsetness' in the wrong direction. I am not stating in any way that I agree with the system. Merely that I understand the basics of how it functions.
I think its a load of crap. With the billions of dollars in wagers and millions of transactions coming from all across North America, one would have to figure those in charge would join the 21st century as far as the delivery path.

[thespaah]

My point was this, if there's one large bettor who decides 8-5 is way too good of a price and he's willing to accept 1-1 (assuming horse sitting on tote at 8-5 with the last horse loading) how do all the other largest players in America not seem to all get the same idea at the same time? Lets say 3k is the amount that makes said 8/5 go to 1/1, if there are dozens of people who can easily afford to bet 3k, all it would take is 3 or 4 of them to see 8/5 and act with their own 3k, yet, it never seems to happen that way.

As far as me 'coattailing' these people, why would I want to coattail people that know less than I do as well as betting on a horse that's getting all the value sucked out?
Wait a minute. Isn't the premise here that the late money always seems to go on a few or one of the entries?

[raybo]

Thank you cbp! You’ve provided the most salient response on this entire thread, and I'll 2nd that! But you know what? I believe that players (particularly those losing) will find something to gripe about no matter where they play.

RE: Last minute Tote board activity. It’s beyond me why something so simple is not understood by so many players. Anyone who is an avid tote follower recognizes that during the entire betting cycle that the tote is updated every 60 seconds. The last update does NOT generally occur prior to or when the gate opens. But even if the last update was initiated 10 secs prior to the gate opening, it still means that the final tote flash would occur 50 secs into the race (or as some might have noticed that being beyond the ½ mile marker in any race, or less then ¼ mile from the finish in a 6F race) . So what’s the big deal? Is everyone betting on the same horses with their odds dropping? I think not. Besides as those odds are dropping others are rising. :jump:
.
.

Tell us how we, as Americans, can bet Hong Kong, legally. :confused:

[Nitro]

Tell us how we, as Americans, can bet Hong Kong, legally. :confused:
I'm not sure where you've been, but I've been betting HK for 2 years on TVG and from what I understand Brisnet and others are also taking our bets and co-mingling those wagers with the HK pools. :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

Look , you getting pissed off at me just for having a point of view with which you do not agree isn't getting anyone anywhere.
Yes, those are the facts. My neighbor is a fiber network manager for a major long haul telco. If there is any knowledge to be gained, it would be a person such as that... One more thing. If you have not read my posts skewering track managements, you missed the opportunity to see that I am in no way toeing any company line.
Now, one issue we must all face is that 100% fiber optic network connections capable of fast as the speed of light data transfer is cost prohibitive. It is becoming the norm, but the process is not as rapid as we'd like to be.
One issue is rights of way. Most of the routes for the fiber my friend handles run along rail road rights of way. These rights of way are not in anyway inexpensive to acquire.
Another aspect of the fiber network is that back ups for the back ups have to be included in the build of the systems....Again, not cheap.
I find the odds changes after the break to be bothersome. You appear to find them infuriating.
You and I are on different paths. When I handicap, I am looking for winning wagers. You look strictly at value. Hence the odds drops effect your play more than they do mine.
And yes ad nauseam is as polite as it gets because the issue has been beaten to a pulp. You getting upset with me is you directing your 'upsetness' in the wrong direction. I am not stating in any way that I agree with the system. Merely that I understand the basics of how it functions.
I think its a load of crap. With the billions of dollars in wagers and millions of transactions coming from all across North America, one would have to figure those in charge would join the 21st century as far as the delivery path.
I am not "upset"...and you are entitled to whatever opinion you want to hold. And so am I. What I am, is slightly annoyed...because, although we have discussed this issue here "ad nauseum"...you still don't understand what we "conspiracy theorists" are really arguing about.

The industry is saying that this late-late money is coming in from many different betting outlets...whereas it is obvious to any observer that what we see in most of the cases is a late unloading on a single horse.

You brought up the "large-volume computer bettors". We all know how these guys operate. Entire BOOKS have been written on their operating methods, for heaven's sake. If THESE are the guys who are doing this, while stationed in various different places...then this late money could NOT be expected to focus on a single horse...unless all these guys are using basically the same handicapping software. In which case...they all would have been rendered bankrupt long ago.

In this game...when you do what others do...you LOSE!

[classhandicapper]

All you can do is insist on a larger margin of safety before pulling the trigger.

If I like a horse and make his fair odds in the 2-1 range, betting him at 5/2 would be risky because my estimate could easily be off by a bit. These days, he could also easily drop to 8/5 on the last flash. So I should probably insist on 7/2 or higher. Then if he drops sharply I'm still in the ballpark.

What you have to hope is that sometimes the late money comes in on other horses and inflates the price of your horse. Then it would all equal out.

If on the other hand this late money is actually past post betting (I haven't seen data one way or the other on this), then we are at a disadvantage no matter what we do.

[thaskalos]

All you can do is insist on a larger margin of safety before pulling the trigger.

If I like a horse and make his fair odds in the 2-1 range, betting him at 5/2 would be risky because my estimate could easily be off by a bit. These days, he could also easily drop to 8/5 on the last flash. So I should probably insist on 7/2 or higher. Then if he drops sharply I'm still in the ballpark.

What you have to hope is that sometimes the late money comes in on other horses and inflates the price of your horse. Then it would all equal out.

If on the other hand this late money is actually past post betting (I haven't seen data one way or the other on this), then we are at a disadvantage no matter what we do.

This "late-late money" has proven to be alarmingly accurate...so...expecting things to "equal out" by having our own horse's price inflated as a result, is an unrealistic expectation.

[TJDave]

The industry is saying that this late-late money is coming in from many different betting outlets...whereas it is obvious to any observer that what we see in most of the cases is a late unloading on a single horse.


If, as you suggest, there is selective past posting, how would you explain long shots? Are these the rare instances when the thieves get stiffed?

This seems like a convoluted way to buy a race. Used to be you could just buy a jockey dinner.

[whodoyoulike]

I'm not sure where you've been, but I've been betting HK for 2 years on TVG and from what I understand Brisnet and others are also taking our bets and co-mingling those wagers with the HK pools. :ThmbUp:

Where are you getting your info (pp's)?

A couple of others have suggested websites with info (includes replays) but, to handicap an entire race this way is difficult for me. I prefer pp's similarly available in the US.

[thaskalos]

If, as you suggest, there is selective past posting, how would you explain long shots? Are these the rare instances when the thieves get stiffed?

This seems like a convoluted way to buy a race. Used to be you could just buy a jockey dinner.
I'm not suggesting that these races are "bought". What I suspect is that this "late-betting-on-one-horse" money, is masqueraded to LOOK like "Whale money"...when, in reality...it's INSIDER money...bet by those few who possess REAL "insider information" about these horses that we see hammered late. That's the ONLY way that I can explain why this money is focused on only one horse...and why this money is as "accurate" as it has proven to be.

These are INSIDERS, pretending to be "large-volume computer bettors using sophisticated handicapping software"...IMO. And they are using the Whales as a "cover"...and a ready-made excuse.

The "sophisticated, high-volume computer bettors" don't hammer a single horse...and they are not into "picking winners". They bet on ALL the overlays in the race...and make their profits off the REBATES.

[whodoyoulike]

You have no idea how commuter tolls work, do you?

I was responding to NorCalGreg's post (see his picture of the Oakland Raiders helmet). If you're still confused, it was sarcasm. And, I have a general idea how they work.

[Stillriledup]

If, as you suggest, there is selective past posting, how would you explain long shots? Are these the rare instances when the thieves get stiffed?

This seems like a convoluted way to buy a race. Used to be you could just buy a jockey dinner.

Maybe they are past posting in the few seconds after the race starts and not waiting till the race is actually over.

[TJDave]

These are INSIDERS, pretending to be "large-volume computer bettors using sophisticated handicapping software"...IMO. And they are using the Whales as a "cover"...and a ready-made excuse.

Seems like a strange way to score with inside information. Wouldn't it prove more profitable to disguise the value rather than bet it down to nothing?

[thaskalos]

Seems like a strange way to score with inside information. Wouldn't it prove more profitable to disguise the value rather than bet it down to nothing?
It depends on what you can get away with.

When the 10-1 shot gets hammered down to 5-2...then the crowd cries bloody murder because they suspect a "fix". But, with the publicity that these "Whales" have gotten...the 5-2 shot can be bet down to 6-5...and there is very little backlash from the crowd. The blame falls on those "enigmatic Whales".

The money is just as green either way.

[lamboguy]

if you want to watch a place that gets plenty of late money, take a good look at Dover Downs. the late money there is absolutely deadly.

[AndyC]

It is a very easy fix. You update the technology so they can update odds faster and you do not start loading the gate until the betting windows are closed and the final pools are displayed. End of subject. Bettors will adapt. We do not like getting shut out. It may take a little while, but we will adapt................I know it cost the racetracks money to close the pools earlier but as Raybo stated how much do they lose long term because of the perception of dishonesty. People have selective memory. They will not notice the 7 horses who get hammered from 7/5 to 4/5 and are still running, but they will never forget the 1 horse who goes from 9/5 to 4/5 opens up daylight 3 steps out of the gate and cruises. They should have a 120 second warning clock countdown showed on every monitor, so people know exactly when the pool is closing.

IF a horse breaks thru gate they can run, but be late scratched for wagering purposes. If there is a late scratch, they would need to unload and restart the process.

Actually the problem, in my view, doesn't get fixed. Odds will still change dramatically AFTER I bet. Closing the windows before the race starts might take care of the conspiracy crowd but it does nothing for me as a bettor trying to lock in a price.

[whodoyoulike]

It is a very easy fix. You update the technology so they can update odds faster and you do not start loading the gate until the betting windows are closed and the final pools are displayed. End of subject. Bettors will adapt. We do not like getting shut out. It may take a little while, but we will adapt.............. ...

I think this would usually work. I could live with it. I think my TVG account closes betting early because I still see them loading and I'm unable to bet.

But, what happens when a horse acts up during loading or in the gate?

A lot of people would like to cancel their wagers when this occurs or bet a different horse.

[Nitro]

Where are you getting your info (pp's)?

A couple of others have suggested websites with info (includes replays) but, to handicap an entire race this way is difficult for me. I prefer pp's similarly available in the US.
As I mentioned, I don’t handicap the races at HK (or any where else for that matter). So I have no need for PPs of any type. That’s not say I don’t understand every aspect of handicapping, but I’ve found a much more efficient method to play this game profitably.

I know that TVG also offers PP’s for HK, but since I haven’t used them I’m not sure if they’ve been re-formatted to resemble those available for local racing. Anyone that’s really interested in the racing in HK, and wants to better familiarize themselves with everything they have to offer can start by visiting the following links:

Hong Kong Jockey Club w/links to various related information:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Results/English/Local/20140406/ST/1

Hong Kong Jockey Club Form Guide w/various links:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/formguide.asp?FrmRaceNum=01&venue=ST
.
.

[raybo]

I'm not sure where you've been, but I've been betting HK for 2 years on TVG and from what I understand Brisnet and others are also taking our bets and co-mingling those wagers with the HK pools. :ThmbUp:

That's great, unfortunately I live in Texas, and only one ADW that I know of accepts Texas residents. TVG betting is not available for Texans either. Brisnet is a data provider, not an ADW, by the way. What others take bets on HK races?

[whodoyoulike]

As I mentioned, I don’t handicap the races at HK (or any where else for that matter). So I have no need for PPs of any type. That’s not say I don’t understand every aspect of handicapping, but I’ve found a much more efficient method to play this game profitably.

I know that TVG also offers PP’s for HK, but since I haven’t used them I’m not sure if they’ve been re-formatted to resemble those available for local racing. Anyone that’s really interested in the racing in HK, and wants to better familiarize themselves with everything they have to offer can start by visiting the following links:

Hong Kong Jockey Club w/links to various related information:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meeting/Results/English/Local/20140406/ST/1

Hong Kong Jockey Club Form Guide w/various links:
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/formguide.asp?FrmRaceNum=01&venue=ST
.
.

Thanks, these look like the same links the others provided to me which I found difficult to use.

Wasn't aware you didn't handicap races (I don't really understand what that means). No need to explain as long as it works for you.

[Nitro]

That's great, unfortunately I live in Texas, and only one ADW that I know of accepts Texas residents. TVG betting is not available for Texans either. Brisnet is a data provider, not an ADW, by the way. What others take bets on HK races?


Best racing in the world at Hong Kong. Not sure about all the ADWs, but Twinspires, Xpressbet and TVG all carry Sha Tin and Happy Valley, co-mingled into those huge pools.

You can bet $5000 to win on a 25-1 shot, and the horse will stay at 25-1.... :)
Taken from one of our regular weekend HK threads in the Selection forum:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1892662

[classhandicapper]

This "late-late money" has proven to be alarmingly accurate...so...expecting things to "equal out" by having our own horse's price inflated as a result, is an unrealistic expectation.

Have you actually tracked it with a decent sized sample?

I'll admit that my casual observation would tend to agree with you. It also seems like it's often a horse with early speed. But we have a tendency to notice what we want to see. I've never seen an objective study.

[Poindexter]

Actually the problem, in my view, doesn't get fixed. Odds will still change dramatically AFTER I bet. Closing the windows before the race starts might take care of the conspiracy crowd but it does nothing for me as a bettor trying to lock in a price.

Very true. But taking care of the conspiracy crowd is a good idea. The sport has enough problems without adding more conspiracy into the mix. Also having 10 second tote updates with all the money reflecting in each flash of the board instead of 60 second updates or whatever they use now would give you a lot better idea of what you are getting. Also having a clock countdown would make it easier for you to bet as late as possible. Most importantly rebates are probably more responsible for the dramatic late odds changes than anything(Obviously a rebated bettor is going to be able to bet a lot more on a horse he makes 2-1 at 3-1 than he would if he was not getting a rebate). So rebates not only make it virtually impossible for the newcomer to even survive the game, they make it impossible for seasoned pros like yourself to figure out with any degree of accuracy what odds you are getting on the horse you want to bet. Sounds like a recipe for success to me. :rolleyes:

[thaskalos]

Have you actually tracked it with a decent sized sample?

I'll admit that my casual observation would tend to agree with you. It also seems like it's often a horse with early speed. But we have a tendency to notice what we want to see. I've never seen an objective study.
Objective studies have been conducted...and their results have been reported to the "authorities". The "late-late money" is deadly-accurate...much more accurate than any "random money " have any right to be. But...as long as those Whales are there to take the blame...the industry doesn't feel that any extra measures need to be activated to remedy the situation.

[classhandicapper]

Objective studies have been conducted...and their results have been reported to the "authorities". The "late-late money" is deadly-accurate...much more accurate than any "random money " have any right to be. But...as long as those Whales are there to take the blame...the industry doesn't feel that any extra measures need to be activated to remedy the situation.


I'm not worried about the late money being accurate. If there's someone out there that's a lot better than me at valuing horses, so be it. I'm more worried about past posting. Past posting is BS.

[Poindexter]

I think this would usually work. I could live with it. I think my TVG account closes betting early because I still see them loading and I'm unable to bet.

But, what happens when a horse acts up during loading or in the gate?

A lot of people would like to cancel their wagers when this occurs or bet a different horse.

It is a trade off I would gladly accept. Pool integrity, vs worrying about 1 in 40 horses I bet that I might want to cancel a bet on.

[thaskalos]

I'm not worried about the late money being accurate. If there's someone out there that's a lot better than me at valuing horses, so be it. I'm more worried about past posting. Past posting is BS.
This late money isn't "out-handicapping" you. It represents inside information that you can't access yourself. These horses are not hammered because of their "handicapping merit".

[TJDave]

This late money isn't "out-handicapping" you. It represents inside information that you can't access yourself. These horses are not hammered because of their "handicapping merit".

So, where's this information coming from and who benefits?

I know the stable hands aren't getting rich.

[Stillriledup]

This late money isn't "out-handicapping" you. It represents inside information that you can't access yourself. These horses are not hammered because of their "handicapping merit".

Exactly. This is why insider trading is not allowed in the stock market and you're right, these aren't 'handicappers' who are watching the same repays we are watching and they're not reading the same PPs we are reading.

How would you like to have this on every horse in every race?

https://gaming.ny.gov/pdf/Sword%20Dancer%2008-28-2015.pdf

[thaskalos]

So, where's this information coming from and who benefits?

I know the stable hands aren't getting rich.

Let me ask YOU a question, TJ...because I can't tell if you are serious or not.

I see a horse running on the grass at Belmont. It has a far outside post position...has never run on the grass before...has poor turf breeding...shows lackluster dirt form...undistinguished connections...and has no grass workouts listed on his PPs. This horse is running at the same class today, in an 11-horse field...and deserves to be one of the outsiders. The only problem is that the horse is held at 9-2 throughout the betting...and then the horse's odds drop to 5-2 shortly after the horses leave the starting gate. The horse stalks the early pace...and draws out late to win impressively.

Who benefitted by the "inside information" in this scenario? The "stable hands"?

[no breathalyzer]

A lot of times late $$ is smart $$ nothing more. i had a lock today that was bet down in gate from 3-1 to 2-1.. grant it it was max 2-1 my point is anyone thats been around the game awhile that isn't a beginner wants to get the '' correct price''and wait till last possible second, the smaller the pools the more the gate punching accrues... when i was a rookie i cant tell you how many times i bet a horse 3 mins to post at 6-1 go down to 3-1 or even lower at these b and c tracks. No one says anything when horse floats the wrong way tho do they ?

[whodoyoulike]

It is a trade off I would gladly accept. Pool integrity, vs worrying about 1 in 40 horses I bet that I might want to cancel a bet on.

As I said your idea should work but, we need to address what to do when the horse acts up after the betting window closes. These types of problems should be solvable and acceptable to most (cost vs benefit problem) but we know some % will never be satisfied (so screw 'em).

[no breathalyzer]

Let me ask YOU a question, TJ...because I can't tell if you are serious or not.

I see a horse running on the grass at Belmont. It has a far outside post position...has never run on the grass before...has poor turf breeding...shows lackluster dirt form...undistinguished connections...and has no grass workouts listed on his PPs. This horse is running at the same class today, in an 11-horse field...and deserves to be one of the outsiders. The only problem is that the horse is held at 9-2 throughout the betting...and then the horse's odds drop to 5-2 shortly after the horses leave the starting gate. The horse stalks the early pace...and draws out late to win impressively.

Who benefitted by the "inside information" in this scenario? The "stable hands"?


players that know when and HOW to watch the board.. the more it don't make sense and gets pounded. THE MORE THAT $$$ means something

[AndyC]

Let me ask YOU a question, TJ...because I can't tell if you are serious or not.

I see a horse running on the grass at Belmont. It has a far outside post position...has never run on the grass before...has poor turf breeding...shows lackluster dirt form...undistinguished connections...and has no grass workouts listed on his PPs. This horse is running at the same class today, in an 11-horse field...and deserves to be one of the outsiders. The only problem is that the horse is held at 9-2 throughout the betting...and then the horse's odds drop to 5-2 shortly after the horses leave the starting gate. The horse stalks the early pace...and draws out late to win impressively.

Who benefitted by the "inside information" in this scenario? The "stable hands"?

Your scenario has been going on since the beginning of betting on racing. What would you propose to do about it?

[thaskalos]

players that know when and HOW to watch the board.. the more it don't make sense and gets pounded. THE MORE THAT $$$ means something
That's true. When the action doesn't make sense...the $$$ means something. But when this $$$ appears after rhe horses leave the starting gate...then, how do you defend yourself against it?

[lamboguy]

That's true. When the action doesn't make sense...the $$$ means something. But when this $$$ appears after rhe horses leave the starting gate...then, how do you defend yourself against it?come on man, i am watching pools all day long, there is money going in and out of them no matter which track is running at all different times. if you guys can really read those boards here you deserve all the money. the place that i would respect the boardwatchers would be Hong Kong racing. we have a guy here that does that, NITRO and seems to do real well at it.

[no breathalyzer]

That's true. When the action doesn't make sense...the $$$ means something. But when this $$$ appears after rhe horses leave the starting gate...then, how do you defend yourself against it?


part of the reason i bet one track ... there are signs that give this away during the mins leading up to the start.. some harder to spot the others.. most the time the massive bet down is a great thing in NY.. as long as you still win how mad can you really be.. over the last 6 months or so the 3 biggest smash downs i seen in gate won 2 times and got 2nd once.. on a sick beat horse was on top by 6 lengths on grass and caught almost on wire.... of course i bet that one.. these 3 smash downs none where favorites

[no breathalyzer]

horse don't go loading the gate at 8-1 at Saratoga and leave 9/2 for no reason.. specially when horse is under the radar and wasn't near ml favorite.

[ReplayRandall]

No one says anything when horse floats the wrong way tho do they ?

Funny you should say that, because it DOES happen. Case in point, back on Nov 24, 2012, I saw an opportunity to make a small score on a cheap 5K claimer at the Fair Grounds. The horse, Thunder Chop, was M/L of 12-1 and with 2 minutes to post was 25-1. I bet $50 to win, watching this horse go to 30-1, as they loaded in the gate. After they were off, 1st call he's 35-1, into the turn he's 40-1 and thru the stretch he's 45-1. At the wire, he holds on for the win and pays $104.60......I know it's the exception, but it does happen.....BTW, sorry about the 3 year old REDBOARD.. :cool:

[raybo]

Taken from one of our regular weekend HK threads in the Selection forum:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1892662

Thanks! I'm sure there are many here who can wager through those places.

[thaskalos]

Your scenario has been going on since the beginning of betting on racing. What would you propose to do about it?
I want the track to tell me where this "smart money" is coming from. Is that too much to ask?

This "late-late smart money" is creating havoc on the tote board at some of these tracks...and the horseplayers deserve to know where it's coming from.

[no breathalyzer]

Funny you should say that, because it DOES happen. Case in point, back on Nov 24, 2012, I saw an opportunity to make a small score on a cheap 5K claimer at the Fair Grounds. The horse, Thunder Chop, was M/L of 12-1 and with 2 minutes to post was 25-1. I bet $50 to win, watching this horse go to 30-1, as they loaded in the gate. After they were off, 1st call he's 35-1, into the turn he's 40-1 and thru the stretch he's 45-1. At the wire, he holds on for the win and pays $104.60......I know it's the exception, but it does happen.....BTW, sorry about the 3 year old REDBOARD.. :cool:


Nice score.. i have no problem with red boards if i believe them

[Stillriledup]

I want the track to tell me where this "smart money" is coming from. Is that too much to ask?

This "late-late smart money" is creating havoc on the tote board at some of these tracks...and the horseplayers deserve to know where it's coming from.

Tracks need to give bettors separate betting pools that aren't accessible to CRW.

[no breathalyzer]

I want the track to tell me where this "smart money" is coming from. Is that too much to ask?

This "late-late smart money" is creating havoc on the tote board at some of these tracks...and the horseplayers deserve to know where it's coming from.


where dose this stop at then... what if all bets over so and so amount had to be tracked?

[TJDave]

Let me ask YOU a question, TJ...because I can't tell if you are serious or not.

Serious as a heart attack. I want to know who has this information and how I can get it.

Except for a couple of live weeks out of each year I've been away from day to day for a long time. Betting coups like this were small affairs. I have a hard time wrapping my head around going from the backside to big dollars.

The question was legitimate. Track insiders aren't typically in the position to move the line as you have described, so...either someone is well placed to collect this information or is willing to pay handsomely for it.

[rastajenk]

I want the track to tell me where this "smart money" is coming from. Is that too much to ask?

This "late-late smart money" is creating havoc on the tote board at some of these tracks...and the horseplayers deserve to know where it's coming from.
Yes.

No they don't.

[thaskalos]

Yes.

No they don't.
Am I supposed to be surprised that our respective opinions differ yet again?

As hard as I try...I can't recall the last time that you and I agreed on anything. Why start now?

When an exotics payoff is suspiciously smaller than it should have been...then the racing officials will sometimes conduct an investigation to find out where this irregularity originated from. To me...what is happening with the late odds dropdowns at some of these tracks is just as suspicious...and just as deserving of further investigation. Without some real reassurance that everything is on the up-and-up...the players cannot be blamed for harboring dark suspicions...especially when our game's shady past is taken into consideration.

The more tarnished your reputation is...the greater your effort must be to prove that things are no longer the same. Up until now...all we have is the racing industry TELLING us that these things which have occurred in the (recent) past can no longer take place today. But no one is showing us what has actually been DONE...to prevent these things from still occurring today.

[lamboguy]

i have gotten a response as to where the late money was coming from at different tracks. most of the time it comes from THE ILSE OF MAN. that place actually does exist, its somewhere in the ocean between England and Ireland. that place has a hub for betting into north american pools. i am also told that it does a lot of business. the adw's that i know do not go through that hub as well as the casino's and racetracks that i know of also do not go through that hub. i have no idea where they are getting all that business from. and i also really don't see the need for a hub in THE ISLE OF MAN. but its there.

i have no idea how a place that sits in that location can be regulated. i would like to bet that place is getting c-band video as well.

[lamboguy]

http://www.drf.com/news/big-candy-boy-bet-came-isle-man-hub

[lamboguy]

https://www.gov.im/gambling/

[NorCalGreg]

Funny you should say that, because it DOES happen. Case in point, back on Nov 24, 2012, I saw an opportunity to make a small score on a cheap 5K claimer at the Fair Grounds. The horse, Thunder Chop, was M/L of 12-1 and with 2 minutes to post was 25-1. I bet $50 to win, watching this horse go to 30-1, as they loaded in the gate. After they were off, 1st call he's 35-1, into the turn he's 40-1 and thru the stretch he's 45-1. At the wire, he holds on for the win and pays $104.60......I know it's the exception, but it does happen.....BTW, sorry about the 3 year old REDBOARD.. :cool:

I guess "THEY" didnt know that time, RR. I think that's what thask wants to know...I would like to know, also. I assumed everyone did, rasta.

Who the F' is "THEY" that knows so much? And how do THEY seemingly have special betting privileges that aren't available to me? Are THEY a single, sole entity, or a group, consortium, or vast network? Why the big mystery? Are THEY paying taxes?

It's blatantly obvious THEY are not regular, everyday bettors...whoever THEY are.

[no breathalyzer]

honestly unless i can't... places to be be ect.. i put my win bets thru as the last horses are loading the gate.. i can't believe i'm the only one doing this.

[ReplayRandall]

I guess "THEY" didnt know that time, RR. I think that's what thask wants to know...I would like to know, also. I assumed everyone did, rasta.

Who the F' is "THEY" that knows so much? And how do THEY seemingly have special betting privileges that aren't available to me? Are THEY a single, sole entity, or a group, consortium, or vast network? Why the big mystery? Are THEY paying taxes?

It's blatantly obvious THEY are not regular, everyday bettors...whoever THEY are.

I have a theory about THEY. In contentious sprint races, where there's 3 or 4 early speed to win types, I believe these horses are ALL heavily bet, hanging around between 5-2 to 5-1, when the horses should be 7-2 to 7-1.

As the gates open, THEY have the split-second ability AND a "7 to 10 second window of time" to cancel those big bets of horses who don't break well or on top. While money is still streaming in, being calculated from different hubs, the odds fluctuation appears that money has come in on one specific horse, but IMO, it's the money THEY cancel coming off the other contenders, that gives the appearance of one horse getting pounded after the bell....In the end, that's what THEY do to manipulate the pools, IMO.

[thaskalos]

I have a theory about THEY. In contentious sprint races, where there's 3 or 4 early speed to win types, I believe these horses are ALL heavily bet, hanging around between 5-2 to 5-1, when the horses should be 7-2 to 7-1.

As the gates open, THEY have the split-second ability AND a "7 to 10 second window of time" to cancel those big bets of horses who don't break well or on top. While money is still streaming in, being calculated from different hubs, the odds fluctuation appears that money has come in on one specific horse, but IMO, it's the money THEY cancel coming off the other contenders, that gives the appearance of one horse getting pounded after the bell....In the end, that's what THEY do to manipulate the pools, IMO.

Isn't this thievery?

[ReplayRandall]

Isn't this thievery?

Of course it is, but can anyone prove it? Maybe "those that know" don't want to be involved, or are being paid to keep quiet......The pros and CONS of high-speed supercomputer thievery has no conscience.

[Stillriledup]

Of course it is, but can anyone prove it? Maybe "those that know" don't want to be involved, or are being paid to keep quiet......The pros and CONS of high-speed supercomputer thievery has no conscience.

It wouldn't be hard to regulate, just no cancelling, or, give bettors the option to bet into a cancel free pool.

Of course, the big elephant in the room is that the industry doesn't care who wins, they just care how much is bet, so they have no real incentive to dig deeper to see what's under the rug because what they might see is something that they believe would cost them money if they fixed it.

[TJDave]

As the gates open, THEY have the split-second ability AND a "7 to 10 second window of time" to cancel those big bets

Why do you suggest 7-10 seconds? It takes that long for a gate signal to arrive? I thought we were talking milliseconds.

If you say split-second doesn't that work both ways?

[TJDave]

the industry doesn't care who wins, they just care how much is bet.

Then they would care that bets were being cancelled illegally.

[Stillriledup]

Then they would care that bets were being cancelled illegally.

No, because they know that the illegally cancelled bets weren't bets that were ever intended to be in the pools anyway.

[thaskalos]

Then they would care that bets were being cancelled illegally.

When your business is struggling...how do you say no to a customer willing to bring millions and millions of dollars to your place?

[TJDave]

No, because they know that the illegally cancelled bets weren't bets that were ever intended to be in the pools anyway.

That makes no sense. You expect the track to be mind readers?

If the hose broke well they wouldn't be cancelled.

[TJDave]

When your business is struggling...how do you say no to a customer willing to bring millions and millions of dollars to your place?

You say no because otherwise is doing business with criminals.

Then you become one.

[Stillriledup]

That makes no sense. You expect the track to be mind readers?

If the hose broke well they wouldn't be cancelled.

But that money that doesn't get cancelled is only in the pool to begin with due to the ability to cancel. If no cancels were available, the money never gets bet in the first place.

[lamboguy]

Of course it is, but can anyone prove it? Maybe "those that know" don't want to be involved, or are being paid to keep quiet......The pros and CONS of high-speed supercomputer thievery has no conscience.
i already made it easy for you to find out where its coming from. all you have to do is go to the Isle of Man and get records with times that horses get bet and canceled.

why do you think the largest betting hub for US racing is in a place that most people have never heard of ?

[rastajenk]

What's the difference, in principle, between making public who and where these big bets are coming from, and hanging around a mutuel line listening and observing to all the activity there? None that I see.

[lamboguy]

What's the difference, in principle, between making public who and where these big bets are coming from, and hanging around a mutuel line listening and observing to all the activity there? None that I see.let me explain something to you easily, nobody cares about legit square customers in this game.

if you remember back when there was some kind of crazy low exacta payoff at yonkers that got hammered after the bell. 2 seconds after someone posted on this board i re=posted where the bets were made, at that time it was at The Red Mile in Lexington,Ky. 3 months later when the story became dead, the investigation came out and verified that wagers came from The Red Mile. those guys seem to move at a much slower pace than myself.

2 months ago i was in Lexington and decided to go to The Red Mile. i saw people betting after the break and i actually bet a race after the bell myself. this is over 2 years since the incident in the Yonker's pools.

today i am telling you that bets after the bell go through the hub in The Isle of Man. my guess is the investigation that may or may not take place will report in about 5 years that after the bell activities exist. also my guess will be that nothing will get done with that one either.

[ReplayRandall]

i already made it easy for you to find out where its coming from. all you have to do is go to the Isle of Man and get records with times that horses get bet and canceled.

why do you think the largest betting hub for US racing is in a place that most people have never heard of ?

I know that your not aware of this Lambo, but I wrote/posted about this subject matter dealing with the Isle of Man, among others, over a year ago.....

[lamboguy]

I know that your not aware of this Lambo, but I wrote/posted about this subject matter dealing with the Isle of Man, among others, over a year ago.....
sorry i didn't remember that, i would have brought up the thread

[classhandicapper]

Let me ask YOU a question, TJ...because I can't tell if you are serious or not.

I see a horse running on the grass at Belmont. It has a far outside post position...has never run on the grass before...has poor turf breeding...shows lackluster dirt form...undistinguished connections...and has no grass workouts listed on his PPs. This horse is running at the same class today, in an 11-horse field...and deserves to be one of the outsiders. The only problem is that the horse is held at 9-2 throughout the betting...and then the horse's odds drop to 5-2 shortly after the horses leave the starting gate. The horse stalks the early pace...and draws out late to win impressively.

Who benefitted by the "inside information" in this scenario? The "stable hands"?

I understand your point on this, but I don't see it as anything new. There have always been people that have access to information about a horse's health, training, ability etc.. that the public does not have.

I was a hot walker at AQU one summer in the mid 70s. I worked in a barn with only moderate success. In just a few months I made several wagers with the benefit of information that other people did not have.

1. A horse named Double Loom had an overall record that would have made him a solid favorite, but his last race was very dull. The public did not know why. I did. And I knew the race was a toss. I got $10.00 on a horse that should have been 2-1.

2. I saw a maiden race where all the horses that had run previously were terrible. There were a couple of first time starters. The public knew that a firster might win, but they had no idea off the workouts if any of them could run. I had become friendly with someone from Bobby Lake's barn. I went there and asked him if his horse could run at all. I was told "yes". I cashed.

3. We had a horse that had won her last race by 7 lengths for 25k and we were dropping her in class. The public knew to be suspect. They made her 2-1 instead of 2/5. I made her 200-1 and bet against her. She finished a bad 3rd.

4. Mark Casse came to work in the same barn (yes that Mark Casse). We were both young and became friendly, mostly talking about handicapping (I was a speed handicapper and he was a class handicapper back then lol). His father Norm had a few horses that Mark was working with. I knew how all his horses were doing and cashed on one.

This is part of the game. If you are outside, you are hoping to compete with insiders by having better handicapping information and skills. If you are inside, you know things about the horses the public does not know.

[Nitro]

come on man, i am watching pools all day long, there is money going in and out of them no matter which track is running at all different times. if you guys can really read those boards here you deserve all the money. the place that i would respect the boardwatchers would be Hong Kong racing. we have a guy here that does that, NITRO and seems to do real well at it.
Hey there Lamboguy. You’re right I am avid Tote watcher so to speak, but I’m not just eye-balling the tote. The programs I’m using analyze the money movement in certain pools at various betting intervals. This is my only approach to playing this game.

I don’t want to get caught up in the apparent paranoia portrayed by many posts on this thread. I will say that I think most of it is conjecture and nonsense. The supposed Whales may be impacting the odds occasionally, but fortunately not the outcome of races as much as is being described here.

As an “outsider” playing an insider’s game, I’ve come to accept the fact most races at Class levels below the Stakes/Handicap type are controlled by the intentions of the horse’s connections. After analyzing thousands of races I can safely conclude that there are some tracks where the money flow indicators @ 3 minutes to post is significant. However, in most cases the die has been cast by 5 to 7 minutes to post. This sort of coincides with common sense: Why would anyone investing a lot of money on solid information in a specific race risk waiting until the last minute to place a bet?

There’s also something to be said about “early” money. At some smaller tracks like Delta Downs and Evangeline a 20/1 shot may open at 3/1 as a ploy to attract public money. How the later betting goes will reveal whether or not it’s just a decoy. A similar occurrence at a larger track with bigger pools is generally a positive indicator for a winning attempt.

BTW if anyone’s interested, we’ll be doing Hong Kong on the Selection forum again tonight. :ThmbUp:
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[Stillriledup]

Hey there Lamboguy. You’re right I am avid Tote watcher so to speak, but I’m not just eye-balling the tote. The programs I’m using analyze the money movement in certain pools at various betting intervals. This is my only approach to playing this game.

I don’t want to get caught up in the apparent paranoia portrayed by many posts on this thread. I will say that I think most of it is conjecture and nonsense. The supposed Whales may be impacting the odds occasionally, but fortunately not the outcome of races as much as is being described here.

As an “outsider” playing an insider’s game, I’ve come to accept the fact most races at Class levels below the Stakes/Handicap type are controlled by the intentions of the horse’s connections. After analyzing thousands of races I can safely conclude that there are some tracks where the money flow indicators @ 3 minutes to post is significant. However, in most cases the die has been cast by 5 to 7 minutes to post. This sort of coincides with common sense: Why would anyone investing a lot of money on solid information in a specific race risk waiting until the last minute to place a bet?

There’s also something to be said about “early” money. At some smaller tracks like Delta Downs and Evangeline a 20/1 shot may open at 3/1 as a ploy to attract public money. How the later betting goes will reveal whether or not it’s just a decoy. A similar occurrence at a larger track with bigger pools is generally a positive indicator for a winning attempt.

BTW if anyone’s interested, we’ll be doing Hong Kong on the Selection forum again tonight. :ThmbUp:
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Good post.
I know personally I think I've gotten pretty good at determining fake out bets that are going to get refunded and which bets are legit, it's an art form for sure (since the industry cares not to put a stop to it)

[raybo]

Hey there Lamboguy. You’re right I am avid Tote watcher so to speak, but I’m not just eye-balling the tote. The programs I’m using analyze the money movement in certain pools at various betting intervals. This is my only approach to playing this game.

I don’t want to get caught up in the apparent paranoia portrayed by many posts on this thread. I will say that I think most of it is conjecture and nonsense. The supposed Whales may be impacting the odds occasionally, but fortunately not the outcome of races as much as is being described here.

As an “outsider” playing an insider’s game, I’ve come to accept the fact most races at Class levels below the Stakes/Handicap type are controlled by the intentions of the horse’s connections. After analyzing thousands of races I can safely conclude that there are some tracks where the money flow indicators @ 3 minutes to post is significant. However, in most cases the die has been cast by 5 to 7 minutes to post. This sort of coincides with common sense: Why would anyone investing a lot of money on solid information in a specific race risk waiting until the last minute to place a bet?

There’s also something to be said about “early” money. At some smaller tracks like Delta Downs and Evangeline a 20/1 shot may open at 3/1 as a ploy to attract public money. How the later betting goes will reveal whether or not it’s just a decoy. A similar occurrence at a larger track with bigger pools is generally a positive indicator for a winning attempt.

BTW if anyone’s interested, we’ll be doing Hong Kong on the Selection forum again tonight. :ThmbUp:
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Good post! :ThmbUp:

I've always been fascinated by tote movement throughout the betting period, but never created or used software to help in the analysis. I play mostly small tracks so I am well aware that early money is often a ploy to distract lesser players from betting on the more logical contenders. But, I tend to focus my tote analysis to the final 5 mtp period. Many well intended horses get hit multiple times during that 5 minute period, when more money is coming into the pools, trying to get as much money down as possible, without drawing unnecessary attention to the true contenders.

At larger tracks, with larger pools, the opposite can happen. Early money can signify a bettor or two who intend to place significant money on the horse early in order to give the impression that the money is coming from a lesser quality player who doesn't realize that the smaller pool size, at the time, will radically lower a horses odds. Those more well known tracks have a lot of quality players playing them, and those players tend to view the early money as being "dumb" money. That's what the early bettor is betting on.

Multiple bets, throughout the betting period, by the same player(s), is not usually as noticeable, but if the tote watcher is thorough, he/she can still often determine "well meant" money from "dumb" money. Knowing tracks well, and the way their frequent players bet their money, is important if you are a tote guy. There are betting shenanigans going on at most tracks, but at the smaller tracks, it can be ridiculous.

[thaskalos]

Good post! :ThmbUp:

I've always been fascinated by tote movement throughout the betting period, but never created or used software to help in the analysis. I play mostly small tracks so I am well aware that early money is often a ploy to distract lesser players from betting on the more logical contenders. But, I tend to focus my tote analysis to the final 5 mtp period. Many well intended horses get hit multiple times during that 5 minute period, when more money is coming into the pools, trying to get as much money down as possible, without drawing unnecessary attention to the true contenders.

At larger tracks, with larger pools, the opposite can happen. Early money can signify a bettor or two who intend to place significant money on the horse early in order to give the impression that the money is coming from a lesser quality player who doesn't realize that the smaller pool size, at the time, will radically lower a horses odds. Those more well known tracks have a lot of quality players playing them, and those players tend to view the early money as being "dumb" money. That's what the early bettor is betting on.

Multiple bets, throughout the betting period, by the same player(s), is not usually as noticeable, but if the tote watcher is thorough, he/she can still often determine "well meant" money from "dumb" money. Knowing tracks well, and the way their frequent players bet their money, is important if you are a tote guy. There are betting shenanigans going on at most tracks, but at the smaller tracks, it can be ridiculous.
The advent of full-card simulcasting has changed the tote board-watching landscape. You can no longer tell when the money is actually bet...because the out-of-state OTBs do not infuse the money to the host track's mutuel pool at the same time that the money is wagered. Bets made with 10 minutes to post may be held by the OTB for 9 minutes...and reported to the host track with only a minute to go.

The only way you can be sure that your wagered money will be reported in a timely manner is to either bet the money at the last minute yourself...or avail yourself of the track's own wagering software -- as the Whales do -- and bet your money at the last second.

The way it stands right now...a major tote board change that we notice with 3 minutes to post, could easily have been caused by money wagered 10 minutes earlier.

[AndyC]

....The way it stands right now...a major tote board change that we notice with 3 minutes to post, could easily have been caused by money wagered 10 minutes earlier.

I doubt that such a delay could exist. I believe the tote is on a 45 second cycle.

[Stillriledup]

I doubt that such a delay could exist. I believe the tote is on a 45 second cycle.

I've experimented with certain bets into minuscule pools early in cycles to see when the money shows up and I've found that most times I don't see my money for about 1:30 to 2 mins. On occasion ill see it at 45 to 1 minute, but most times it's over a minute.

[AndyC]

I've experimented with certain bets into minuscule pools early in cycles to see when the money shows up and I've found that most times I don't see my money for about 1:30 to 2 mins. On occasion ill see it at 45 to 1 minute, but most times it's over a minute.

Where did you experiment? At the track or through an ADW?

[raybo]

The advent of full-card simulcasting has changed the tote board-watching landscape. You can no longer tell when the money is actually bet...because the out-of-state OTBs do not infuse the money to the host track's mutuel pool at the same time that the money is wagered. Bets made with 10 minutes to post may be held by the OTB for 9 minutes...and reported to the host track with only a minute to go.

The only way you can be sure that your wagered money will be reported in a timely manner is to either bet the money at the last minute yourself...or avail yourself of the track's own wagering software -- as the Whales do -- and bet your money at the last second.

The way it stands right now...a major tote board change that we notice with 3 minutes to post, could easily have been caused by money wagered 10 minutes earlier.

You speak as if you know that this ADW/OTB holding of wagers for several minutes is a fact. If it is indeed a fact, then please let the rest of us know where you got that factual information. If that is truly fact, then I will stop watching the tote completely and just analyze what I see at the last click before the gates open. I must have been lucky all the times I've spotted a live horse who won or ran much better than the PPs say he/she should, via the earlier tote action.

[thaskalos]

You speak as if you know that this ADW/OTB holding of wagers for several minutes is a fact. If it is indeed a fact, then please let the rest of us know where you got that factual information. If that is truly fact, then I will stop watching the tote completely and just analyze what I see at the last click before the gates open. I must have been lucky all the times I've spotted a live horse who won or ran much better than the PPs say he/she should, via the earlier tote action.
It's a fact...and it has been reported several times. Some early wagers are reported early...and some early wagers are reported LATE. The out-of-state OTBs have no nice and orderly way of transferring the money to the host track. In fact...the racing industry ITSELF has flatly admitted that some of this money that shows up on the tote board AFTER the race has started...is money that has been wagered much earlier during the betting period.

The information is out there for those who are interested in finding it.

[raybo]

I've experimented with certain bets into minuscule pools early in cycles to see when the money shows up and I've found that most times I don't see my money for about 1:30 to 2 mins. On occasion ill see it at 45 to 1 minute, but most times it's over a minute.

If you're betting through an ADW then of course there will be delays simply due to the time periods involved in the transfer of the money from you, through your ADW, to and through the hub, and into the track pools and finally displayed on the tote board. The tote is not updated in real time, we all know that, so depending on when the ADW's money gets to the track, there could be more than a minute delay before you see your money in the track's pools and on the tote. If the tote updated 45 seconds ago and your money doesn't hit the track until more than 15 seconds later, at a one minute tick on the tote your money wouldn't hit the pools for well over a minute after you placed your bet.