Post Positions

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Is there any info regarding the win percentages of post positions at Aqueduct for the main track, turf course and inner dirt track for a couple of years. The reason is to avoid the low win percentage post positions over this extended period. thanks in advance.

[Augenj]

Is there any info regarding the win percentages of post positions at Aqueduct for the main track, turf course and inner dirt track for a couple of years. The reason is to avoid the low win percentage post positions over this extended period. thanks in advance.
Don't forget that field size is important when doing post position analysis. The outer posts will usually be running in larger fields than the inner posts. The inner posts will have a higher win per cent due to usually racing against fewer horses.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Don't forget that field size is important when doing post position analysis. The outer posts will usually be running in larger fields than the inner posts. The inner posts will have a higher win per cent due to usually racing against fewer horses.


Thanks. That's a really significant point. I am not looking to split hairs in the analysis I simply want to avoid the statistically bad win post positions and take advantage when a favorite ( especially without speed) has a proven low win percentage post.

[pondman]

Is there any info regarding the win percentages of post positions at Aqueduct for the main track, turf course and inner dirt track for a couple of years. The reason is to avoid the low win percentage post positions over this extended period. thanks in advance.

A number of publications give this to you. I see it in the basic Equibase edition, for each race condition and distance.

[Ocala Mike]

Too early to tell (3 races) of course, but I am seeing a negative outside on the AQU main - 1 turn races.

Remember in doing your analysis that "past history is no guarantee of future performance." Better to try and come up with the existence of a bias, if one exists, on your own through observation rather than rely on past data that is available to everyone. The earlier you come up with it, the better.