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View Full Version : Top Horse Analytics: 11/02/2015 BEL,CD,DMR,GPW,KEE Weekly Statistics


Augenj
11-02-2015, 10:22 AM
Welcome to a subset of the weekly statistics produced by Top Horse Analytics.

Updated win stats will be posted here weekly for Favorites, Morning Line Favorites, and Top Horse for all of the active tracks we analyze.

The following statistics simulate betting $2.00 to win from the start of the current logical year to the present.

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Weekly Stats For Current Year At BEL *END OF LOGICAL YEAR*
Start Of Logical Year: 04/29/2015
Updated Through: 11/01/2015
Average Field Size: 7.88
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At BEL
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 910
Number Of Wins: 326
Win Per Cent: 35.82
Dollars In: 1820.00
Dollars Out: 1543.40
High Payoff: 9.80
Profit: -276.60
ROI: 0.8480

M/L Favorites At BEL
Occurs Per Cent: 98.02
Number Of Races: 892 *
Number Of Wins: 295
Win Per Cent: 33.07
Dollars In: 1784.00
Dollars Out: 1479.70
High Payoff: 20.80
Profit: -304.30
ROI: 0.8294
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At BEL
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 910
Number Of Wins: 307
Win Per Cent: 33.74
Dollars In: 1820.00
Dollars Out: 1742.50
High Payoff: 22.00
Profit: -77.50
ROI: 0.9574

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Weekly Stats For Current Year At CD
Start Of Logical Year: 04/25/2015
Updated Through: 11/01/2015
Average Field Size: 7.91
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 487
Number Of Wins: 167
Win Per Cent: 34.29
Dollars In: 974.00
Dollars Out: 790.60
High Payoff: 10.00
Profit: -183.40
ROI: 0.8117

M/L Favorites At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 95.69
Number Of Races: 466 *
Number Of Wins: 146
Win Per Cent: 31.33
Dollars In: 932.00
Dollars Out: 738.80
High Payoff: 12.20
Profit: -193.20
ROI: 0.7927
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At CD
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 487
Number Of Wins: 126
Win Per Cent: 25.87
Dollars In: 974.00
Dollars Out: 685.80
High Payoff: 21.00
Profit: -288.20
ROI: 0.7041

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Weekly Stats For Current Year At DMR
Start Of Logical Year: 07/16/2015
Updated Through: 11/01/2015
Average Field Size: 8.66
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 388
Number Of Wins: 123
Win Per Cent: 31.70
Dollars In: 776.00
Dollars Out: 625.20
High Payoff: 10.80
Profit: -150.80
ROI: 0.8057

M/L Favorites At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 388 *
Number Of Wins: 114
Win Per Cent: 29.38
Dollars In: 776.00
Dollars Out: 605.20
High Payoff: 13.20
Profit: -170.80
ROI: 0.7799
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At DMR
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 388
Number Of Wins: 104
Win Per Cent: 26.80
Dollars In: 776.00
Dollars Out: 654.80
High Payoff: 29.40
Profit: -121.20
ROI: 0.8438

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Weekly Stats For Current Year At GPW
Start Of Logical Year: 10/07/2015
Updated Through: 11/01/2015
Average Field Size: 8.17
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 207
Number Of Wins: 66
Win Per Cent: 31.88
Dollars In: 414.00
Dollars Out: 317.60
High Payoff: 8.40
Profit: -96.40
ROI: 0.7671

M/L Favorites At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 207 *
Number Of Wins: 61
Win Per Cent: 29.47
Dollars In: 414.00
Dollars Out: 302.60
High Payoff: 9.40
Profit: -111.40
ROI: 0.7309
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At GPW
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 207
Number Of Wins: 58
Win Per Cent: 28.02
Dollars In: 414.00
Dollars Out: 320.20
High Payoff: 20.80
Profit: -93.80
ROI: 0.7734

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Weekly Stats For Current Year At KEE *END OF LOGICAL YEAR*
Start Of Logical Year: 04/03/2015
Updated Through: 10/31/2015
Average Field Size: 8.50
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At KEE
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 329
Number Of Wins: 124
Win Per Cent: 37.69
Dollars In: 658.00
Dollars Out: 589.00
High Payoff: 12.00
Profit: -69.00
ROI: 0.8951

M/L Favorites At KEE
Occurs Per Cent: 94.83
Number Of Races: 312 *
Number Of Wins: 119
Win Per Cent: 38.14
Dollars In: 624.00
Dollars Out: 626.20
High Payoff: 14.60
Profit: 2.20
ROI: 1.0035
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Top Horse At KEE
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 329
Number Of Wins: 116
Win Per Cent: 35.26
Dollars In: 658.00
Dollars Out: 668.60
High Payoff: 31.80
Profit: 10.60
ROI: 1.0161

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ultracapper
11-02-2015, 04:02 PM
You're out performing every track, except that pesky Churchill Downs. Good job.

ultracapper
11-02-2015, 04:05 PM
I think it's interesting also how the public corrects the morning line maker at all of them but Keeneland. The crowd is tough to beat, but you're doing it pretty regularly.

Augenj
11-02-2015, 11:42 PM
You're out performing every track, except that pesky Churchill Downs. Good job.
Thanks. Someday my tired old computer will figure CD out. In the mean time, it's just another reason not to bet there with the increase in takeout. ;)

Augenj
11-02-2015, 11:49 PM
I think it's interesting also how the public corrects the morning line maker at all of them but Keeneland. The crowd is tough to beat, but you're doing it pretty regularly.Yes, we have a lower win per cent than the favorite but the ROI is what counts in the end. You can also squeeze profit out of this thing by being selective about which races to bet and that, of course, is a trade secret. (if I ever find it) :D

ReplayRandall
11-02-2015, 11:59 PM
Yes, we have a lower win per cent than the favorite but the ROI is what counts in the end. You can also squeeze profit out of this thing by being selective about which races to bet and that, of course, is a trade secret. (if I ever find it) :D

Ancient Chinese secret like Calgon? :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjNRXfRXnoc

Augenj
11-03-2015, 12:08 AM
Ancient Chinese secret like Calgon? :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjNRXfRXnoc
Randall, how do you remember old commercials like that? Yes, as you know, Calgon is the secret ingredient to Top Horse Analytics. :D

MJC922
11-03-2015, 07:05 AM
Good stuff Augenj. I was taking a look at studying my own class rankings 'Deltalover-style'. Delta sometimes likes to use the post time favorite to evaluate how significant a number is. See results attached. To summarize, when the computer agrees with the public's own choice the favorite wins 42.1% of the time with a -10% ROI and when the computer disagrees strongly with the public (and let's define strongly as the favorite ranks worse than third on class) we see 27.9% wins and a -31% ROI. The win% 'delta' is significant -14% on these favorites. So I'm looking at things like this to create a more robust 'entry point' into races in order to somewhat mitigate against odds volatility. IMO it may be best in today's game to find the weak favorite first and let that be the entry point for deeper analysis into a race, rather than finding something you like about a specific horse from the get-go.

Augenj
11-03-2015, 08:48 AM
Good stuff Augenj. I was taking a look at studying my own class rankings 'Deltalover-style'. Delta sometimes likes to use the post time favorite to evaluate how significant a number is. See results attached. To summarize, when the computer agrees with the public's own choice the favorite wins 42.1% of the time with a -10% ROI and when the computer disagrees strongly with the public (and let's define strongly as the favorite ranks worse than third on class) we see 27.9% wins and a -31% ROI. The win% 'delta' is significant -14% on these favorites. So I'm looking at things like this to create a more robust 'entry point' into races in order to somewhat mitigate against odds volatility. IMO it may be best in today's game to find the weak favorite first and let that be the entry point for deeper analysis into a race, rather than finding something you like about a specific horse from the get-go.
It seems like our numbers line up pretty well at Belmont when the computer agrees with the public (42.1% of the time). I may start publishing these figures again every week like I used to. You have some good points that need to be checked out. If only I had time to do it all. :)

Weekly Stats For Current Year At BEL
Start Of Logical Year: 04/29/2015
Updated Through: 11/01/2015
Average Field Size: 7.88
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At BEL
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 910
Number Of Wins: 326
Win Per Cent: 35.82
Dollars In: 1820.00
Dollars Out: 1543.40
High Payoff: 9.80
Profit: -276.60
ROI: 0.8480

Top Horse When Favorite At BEL
Occurs Per Cent: 58.13
Number Of Races: 529
Number Of Wins: 223
Win Per Cent: 42.16
Dollars In: 1058.00
Dollars Out: 989.70
High Payoff: 8.80
Profit: -68.30
ROI: 0.9354