My look at the Saturday BC races

[PaceAdvantage]

Going to split this up into three posts in this thread...I list my horses in contender order and provide a value line...I don't claim to be a great handicapper, but doing things this way on the big days has proven quite rewarding, as anyone who has followed me has figured out by now...with that said, this could be the year we give some of it back... :lol:

And yes, there will be what appears to be some really funky picks/lines...sorry...that's just the way it goes...you are free to take it or leave it, but please, don't bother asking me if it's a joke...I assure you, it isn't...

BC Juvenile Fillies
:10: Songbird 3/2
:7: Nickname 9/2
:1: Land Over Sea 13/1

I don't see any reason to play this race. Songbird is probably my lock of the day and there won't be much, if any, value...

BC Turf Sprint
:3: Undrafted 5/1
:5: Lady Shipman 5/1
:8: Something Extra 7/1
:1: Pure Sensation 10/1
:6: Joe Franklin 11/1

Going by the morning line, not much value in here either until you get down to my third and fifth choice. I'll take flyers with the :6: & :8: and hope to get lucky. These two are the speediest early on, so that's not such a bad thing to have in a 5.5 furlong turf sprint...sometimes...maybe? :lol:

BC F&M Sprint
:4: La Verdad 3/1
:9: Sweet Whiskey 7/1
:8: Stonetastic 9/1
:6: Super Majesty 10/1
:5: Artemis Agrotera 10/1
:3: Taris 11/1

Do you get the idea that I kind of like speed horses? :lol: Here's another one I rate highly who is something like 30-1 morning line...that would be Sweet Whiskey. I can see why some people think I'm nuts when I have horses like this rated as my second choice...nevertheless, :9: , :5: & :4: appear to be the value plays in this race.

I'll be back with some more races in a bit...I know you guys are sitting on pins and needles... :lol:

[johnhannibalsmith]

...

I'll be back with some more races in a bit...I know you guys are sitting on pins and needles... :lol:

Honestly I've read enough of your write-ups for these big days and I've fared poorly enough at the BC the last half-dozen years to start thinking seriously about figuring out how to take your selections and merely worry myself with the how-to-bet them part. Then do what I do best. Kick back and enjoy the show. Not sure my ego can take it though. This HAS to be the year I see it all perfectly. :lol:

[rastajenk]

I'd be satisfied to see one or two of them perfectly. :cool:

[HuggingTheRail]

$5 WIN on Pins and Needles

[PaceAdvantage]

BC F&M Turf
:8: Dacita 5/1
:2: Sentiero Italia 6/1
:11: Stephanie's Kitten 9/1
:4: Sharla Rae 11/1
:12: Secret Gesture 12/1
:7: Watsdachances 12/1

Two biggest value plays based on morning line are :4: & :2: . :7: & :8: may prove interesting as well depending on how the live odds look tomorrow.

BC Sprint
:13: Private Zone 3/1
:5: Runhappy 7/2
:14: Favorite Tale 7/1
:9: Masochistic 12/1
:6: Ivan Fallunovalot 15/1

This race isn't offering a heck of a lot of value compared to some others, so I may just sit this one out. I like Private Zone personally and hope he wins, but he won't be worth betting. My gut tells me this race is going to be won from off the pace, and I'm thinking I may put a little something on :6: to test that theory.

BC Mile
:8: Obviously 7/2
:7: Tepin 6/1
:4: Mondialiste 7/1
:1: Grand Arch 13/1
:3: Make Believe 14/1

Yeah, I'll make the bet that Obviously can go out there winging and maybe hold on at 15-1...let's also throw a big time closer/plodder into this too...Mondialiste...so I have a big time speed and a big time closer in a mile turf race...what could go wrong? :8: , :4: and possibly the :7: for me in the turf mile.

Last three races to come in a little bit...

[NorCalGreg]

CJ's write-up about BC Pace melt-downs was great (not that you or me or anyone else can't have their own opinion). He makes a good case to toss Obviously as being a now 7 yr old nightmare for any other speed horses--leaving the closers to pick up the awards. Definitely like Modialiste here.

[PaceAdvantage]

BC Juvenile
:13: Nyquist 3/1
:7: Brody's Cause 4/1
:2: Riker 8/1
:6: Rated R Superstar 9/1
:5: Cocked and Loaded 17/1

I really like Nyquist in this race, and he should offer at least a little value if he goes off near his morning line...I don't think anyone else in this race is worth betting, even though there might technically be some value in :2: & :6: . Any value there might be isn't all that much, plus, neither Riker or Rated R Superstar are much good as closers...and this race will likely be fast up front, and I already have the fastest in Nyquist, so why look elsewhere? If the odds are really out of whack for those other two, I might take a shot with one of them as well, but likely ol' Nyquist will be my one bet in this race.

BC Turf
:3: Big John B 5/1
:11: Red Rifle 5/1
:1: Golden Horn 5/1
:7: Big Blue Kitten 7/1
:4: Slumber 11/1
:6: Twilight Eclipse 16/1

Yeah, yeah, Golden Horn tied for top choice (but listed third) with a 5/1 value line....yeah, tell me something I don't know (which is "a lot," I know you're dying to tell me). With that out of the way, let's focus on the likely big gazoomba in this race...the mamma deedle of all value...BIG (freakin) JOHN B. Yeah yeah, I know...I'm nuts...this is crazy...this horse doesn't like softer turf...he got beat pretty nicely last year in the BC Turf, (although if you go by beaten lengths, it wasn't all that sad). He's coming into the 2015 edition racing better than he did going into 2014. And if Golden Horn isn't the big who-ha everyone says he is...if he doesn't feel like running, maybe my out-of-the-clouds BIG (freakin) JOHN B has a shot late...at 30-1, I'm on for the ride. It's just another race..it's not the end of the world. Red Rifle is another very nice closer who deserves some money because that one is going to be some value as well. :3: & :11: for me in this one.

BC Classic
:9: Honor Code 5/1
:4: American Pharoah 5/1
:1: Tonalist 6/1
:2: Keen Ice 7/1
:3: Frosted 9/1

This is a pretty evenly matched race, other than American Pharoah's (once again) extreme on-paper early pace advantage. Will that materialize or not is another question. He usually looks like he should be isolated up front, but that hasn't happened very often this year...with Beholder out though, I think AP has a better than usual shot of being loose on the lead. I guess it all depends on what Baffert tells Espinoza to do. Regardless, I won't be betting this horse, so why do I even care? :lol:

Where's the value PA? Oh, ok, I'll tell you my opinion. Yours may vary. The value most obviously lies with Keen Ice and Frosted. After that, slim pickings. Maybe Honor Code will offer a sliver of value, but I doubt it. :2: & :3: for me to close out 2015.

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE, WHETHER YOU AGREE WITH ME OR NOT! :p

[ebcorde]

He has almost a 20% win in Breeder's cup races. about the same as his stakes win % which I thought was quite impressive. He's quickly becoming the best stakes race trainer in the US.

Just saying. top trainers, top owners take the bulk of these races.

[Grits]

He has almost a 20% win in Breeder's cup races. about the same as his stakes win % which I thought was quite impressive. He's quickly becoming the best stakes race trainer in the US.

Just saying. top trainers, top owners take the bulk of these races.

He won three of last year's races.

Oh, and PA, thank you for sharing your picks. So often, you come through. I used the 4 and the 3 in the last. ;)

[cj]

CJ's write-up about BC Pace melt-downs was great (not that you or me or anyone else can't have their own opinion). He makes a good case to toss Obviously as being a now 7 yr old nightmare for any other speed horses--leaving the closers to pick up the awards. Definitely like Modialiste here.

Meltdowns 2-2 so far with the Mile to go, though I didn't think the 4 would be one to benefit in the Distaff.

[ultracapper]

$5 WIN on Pins and Needles

I don't see the value in that pick

[kingfin66]

BC F&M Turf
:8: Dacita 5/1
:2: Sentiero Italia 6/1
:11: Stephanie's Kitten 9/1
:4: Sharla Rae 11/1
:12: Secret Gesture 12/1
:7: Watsdachances 12/1

Two biggest value plays based on morning line are :4: & :2: . :7: & :8: may prove interesting as well depending on how the live odds look tomorrow.


Getting a big price on the :2: I am going for it.

[Rookies]

You had some whacky choices there PA, but I ginned them up with my own and some of CJ's take on the action.

Took the collar on Friday.

And was stilled blanked, until the little chalky Exactor and then...

Red Board Alert...

BC Mile
Obviously 7/2
Tepin 6/1
Mondialiste 7/1
Grand Arch 13/1
Make Believe 14/1

Yeah, I'll make the bet that Obviously can go out there winging and maybe hold on at 15-1...let's also throw a big time closer/plodder into this too...Mondialiste...so I have a big time speed and a big time closer in a mile turf race...what could go wrong? , and possibly the for me in the turf mile.

Took Modialiste over three in Exactors and then watched the suspicious drop on Casse's horse. So, bet him as well and flipped my same three below the :7: . Pretty good Exactor as the :4: bounced outside from the clouds to get up second! :ThmbUp:

However..that was it! :lol: q