SHOCKER-Keeneland Track Bias

[EMD4ME]

SHOCKER-looks like (after thursday's card that Keeneland) the track super worked on the track to make sure speed was more effective.

5 out of 9 wired
3 out of 9 were very UP CLOSE to wire
1 off pace to wire

Chee, I wonder who they are trying to benefit :eek:

Why don't they just make sure gate 4 gets a 3 second head start while they are it. :D :D :D

[depalma113]

Liam's Map

[AlBundy33]

Private Zone

[andtheyreoff]

Need I point out that the biggest price of the day was $12.20? Is it possible that these were the best horses anyway, and it's not some grand pro-American Pharoah conspiracy?

[EMD4ME]

Need I point out that the biggest price of the day was $12.20? Is it possible that these were the best horses anyway, and it's not some grand pro-American Pharoah conspiracy?

You're only adding to the point, thanks. If the track was pro off the pace, more prices would have won.

[PaceAdvantage]

SHOCKER-looks like (after thursday's card that Keeneland) the track super worked on the track to make sure speed was more effective.

5 out of 9 wired
3 out of 9 were very UP CLOSE to wire
1 off pace to wire

Chee, I wonder who they are trying to benefit :eek:

Why don't they just make sure gate 4 gets a 3 second head start while they are it. :D :D :DYour sample size is entirely too small to make any sort of informed judgement...especially when talking about one of the most subjective subjects in handicapping.

[EMD4ME]

Your sample size is entirely too small to make any sort of informed judgement...especially when talking about one of the most subjective subjects in handicapping.

All I heard this month is how the track is not pro speed and how the track is pro off the lead.

For the meet stalkers and closers won 61% of the time in sprints and 57% in routes.

Now we get 11% winners from off the pace as American Pharoah comes to town?

What a koinky dinky :lol: :lol: :lol:

I hear your point, let's see what the stat is come 5:35 on Saturday. We'll have a few more races to get the sample size up.

[PaceAdvantage]

Look, you take whatever info you think is important and you bet that way. Don't complain. Take the new info you have and adjust.

Are you really that emotionally attached to an AP win or loss? I'm not. I'd actually be quite happy if he won...and if he lost and I cashed a ticket, I'd be equally as happy.

I don't really care if they soup up the track to try and help him...that's fine with me...that's been going on since I got into this game...I remember them working on the track ALL NIGHT LONG and ALL DAY LONG so Easy Goer could win the Belmont Stakes after it had rained so much the night before, it was the only time I can remember my parent's basement taking on water (I lived less than 10 min from Belmont)...I was a little pissed at that, but I grew older and wiser and know there isn't much that can be done about things like this...you notice it and adjust...and you turn the page to the next race when it's over...

You need more Zen in your game... :lol:

[Tom]

Zayat paid them off? :D

[EMD4ME]

Look, you take whatever info you think is important and you bet that way. Don't complain. Take the new info you have and adjust.

Are you really that emotionally attached to an AP win or loss? I'm not. I'd actually be quite happy if he won...and if he lost and I cashed a ticket, I'd be equally as happy.

I don't really care if they soup up the track to try and help him...that's fine with me...that's been going on since I got into this game...I remember them working on the track ALL NIGHT LONG and ALL DAY LONG so Easy Goer could win the Belmont Stakes after it had rained so much the night before, it was the only time I can remember my parent's basement taking on water (I lived less than 10 min from Belmont)...I was a little pissed at that, but I grew older and wiser and know there isn't much that can be done about things like this...you notice it and adjust...and you turn the page to the next race when it's over...

You need more Zen in your game... :lol:

You're talking to a guy who picks up on race bias BEFORE the 1st race by walking down to the track and looking to see how deep the rail is that day compared to yesterday WHO then bets accordingly. And...who studies when the turf is cut down to pick up on trends before others do.

Trust me, I have a ton of Zen and creativity in my game :lol:

If this over rated average horse wins Saturday, it will be a tragedy. Despite the coincidental defections, souped up track, being lone speed, etc. I hope the racing gods help him lose as this was supposed to be the TEST for him but unfortunately it's turning into a positively dressed up effort.

[EMD4ME]

Zayat paid them off? :D

In this case no need, the track wants memorable wins and experiences that way people come back.

[Valuist]

SHOCKER-looks like (after thursday's card that Keeneland) the track super worked on the track to make sure speed was more effective.

5 out of 9 wired
3 out of 9 were very UP CLOSE to wire
1 off pace to wire

Chee, I wonder who they are trying to benefit :eek:

Why don't they just make sure gate 4 gets a 3 second head start while they are it. :D :D :D

First off, 4 out of 9 wired. Falling Sky in race 8 had the lead at the first call, but dropped back and actually was 2 lengths behind before re-rallying. Here's the odds of the 4 wire to wire winners:

19-10
13-10
1-1
11-10

These were all expected results. Like PA said, way too small of a sample size, and the results were not unexpected. The track now is nothing like the pre-2006 days. Not even remotely close. Not only was the surface changed, but the track configuration was changed.

[castaway01]

The pathetic part of your hundreds of selective memory AP posts is that he already won the Triple Crown. If he finishes last tomorrow, you can't take that away. It's like saying Michael Jordan sucked with the Wizards---he already had six rings and his legacy was established.

Similarly, your handicapping acumen concerning this horse, or lack of same, can't be changed by whatever happens tomorrow. You already lost that war.

[PaceAdvantage]

If this over rated average horse wins Saturday, it will be a tragedy. Despite the coincidental defections, souped up track, being lone speed, etc. I hope the racing gods help him lose as this was supposed to be the TEST for him but unfortunately it's turning into a positively dressed up effort.You need to read what you write sometimes... :lol:

[EMD4ME]

You need to read what you write sometimes... :lol:

Au contraire mon frere, people who read what I write need to see the forest through the trees :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Stillriledup]

Need I point out that the biggest price of the day was $12.20? Is it possible that these were the best horses anyway, and it's not some grand pro-American Pharoah conspiracy?

Biases can be sniffed out by how all the runners race, there's a certain 'look' to the races on pro speed/inside days. If the best horses and favorites were all getting to the lead and winning due to their superiority on a track that was favoring closers or an 'even' bias, you would be able to tell this by how the race 'looked'.

Also, if you watch the races at tracks with dead rails, you'll see the jocks way off the rail, how jocks ride lets you know if the inside is good or not, the jocks know, especially the smart ones. You can pick up bias notes by how the collective jockey colony rides.

There was a race a few days ago at 'Calder' where Edgar Prado rode one of the main contenders on the turf, the horse figured to be well placed due to his major contender status but Prado had the horse far back and wide. Not only was he far back and wide, but visually the pace was slow, he seemed out of position, I was like 'what is this guy doing' but he knew best, his horse swept up and got beat a nose and he was beat by a horse behind him and more wide! The top 2 finishers were far back and very wide approaching the top of the lane and in what seemed like a blink of an eye, they went from last to first in a matter of moments.

As far as a conspiracy goes, listen carefully to what EMD says about 'creating memories'. These people are running a business and in business the goal is to make as much as you can, companies are not in the 'chips land where they may' business, they're in the 'lets figure out a way to put ourselves in the best possible position to maximize revenue' business.

It doesn't mean they're breaking any rules or laws, what they're doing is a legit business practice, they are entertainers, they're trying to create memories for YOU, be happy they're looking out for your long term memory, they don't want you to reflect sadly that Hard Aces paid 103.80 to win sweeping past a staggering field, they want you to reflect FONDLY.

[EMD4ME]

The pathetic part of your hundreds of selective memory AP posts is that he already won the Triple Crown. If he finishes last tomorrow, you can't take that away. It's like saying Michael Jordan sucked with the Wizards---he already had six rings and his legacy was established.

Similarly, your handicapping acumen concerning this horse, or lack of same, can't be changed by whatever happens tomorrow. You already lost that war.

1) Excuse me? You couldn't be more wrong. Guess Andy Beyer, Andy Serling and EMD4ME are all complete morons when it comes to horseracing.

2) Don't even try and compare MJ to AP. MJ carried his teams and was a superstar. He overcame and did things that were near impossible. This horse was never a superstar. Never close to a superstar. Never overcame an OUNCE of difficulty in ONE SINGULAR RACE.

Biggest problem betting in 2015 is, not enough uneducated money in the pools.

Listening to all these AP homers all year, gives me hope that there is still a ton of uneducated money in the pools.

3) Lost the war? All summer, after the Belmont, people were clamoring for this horse to show how great he is vs. older. He ducked them in the JCGC or the Awesome Again. I'm telling you right now, Smooth Roller would've went right by AP like he was standing still if AP was in the Awesome Again.

AP's connections shielded him from older to ensure this over hyped horse kept his bullcrap legacy intact. They said we'll beat them in the classic.

Well here we are and what happens?

The only speed that would've put his sorry ass away on the far turn, somehow chose a purse that is 80% less than the BCC.....

Then.....the only other pace companion and 2nd choice was taken care of.

The track profile changed yesterday. NOT ANTI SPEED.

If AP wins, it will be a tragedy.

Why? Because I've never seen such a dressed up horse get so many accolades in my life. It's a crying shame the BCC didn't have all horses healthy and in there.

If he would've went out and beat a field of Liam's Maps, Beholders, Tonalists, HC's etc. then he would have left no doubt that he was awesome as he retired.

He would've shut people, like ME, TLG and Andy Beyer, up.

4) I lost the war???

If he runs dead last in the BCC or loses by a blonde strand of hair on the wire, it will only prove that what I was saying all year, was 100% CORRECT.

He'll find a way to lose. He's just not that great.

[dogkatcher]

END4ME, AP may not be the greatest of all time, but he beat one of the toughest fields to be assembled in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, then beat them again after they had taken naps to rebuild their strength for the Belmont.

You have do be a damn Liberal Democrat who thinks Hillary can do no wrong.
Enjoy your misery and hoping all your tickets get crushed when AP wins. of course it will only be because of the BIAS.

[AndyC]

There is nothing like a preemptive strike to ensure that your opinion can be upheld in your own eyes. If AP wins, it's the track, if he loses you can pound your chest and say you told us so.

[PaceAdvantage]

Proof that love or hate of a horse can seriously cloud an otherwise pretty sound handicapper's mind...that's what we've got here tonight with EMD4ME...which is the way he wants it...well....he gets it...

I don't like it, any more than you do...

[PaceAdvantage]

There is nothing like a preemptive strike to ensure that your opinion can be upheld in your own eyes. If AP wins, it's the track, if he loses you can pound your chest and say you told us so.Yup...he's covering all his bases...

Don't forget Liam's Map not showing up...and now Beholder dropping out...he's got all his bases covered and there is NO RESULT on Saturday that will make him eat crow...

Well played EMD...we concede whatever result happens on Saturday to you...

[ebcorde]

SHOCKER-looks like (after thursday's card that Keeneland) the track super worked on the track to make sure speed was more effective.

5 out of 9 wired
3 out of 9 were very UP CLOSE to wire
1 off pace to wire

Chee, I wonder who they are trying to benefit :eek:

Why don't they just make sure gate 4 gets a 3 second head start while they are it. :D :D :D


Steve byk had the keeneland clocker on his radio show about 3 days ago. he said "I'd just make a left turn and head for home on this track"

huh? then i saw yesterday's races.

[EMD4ME]

Yup...he's covering all his bases...

Don't forget Liam's Map not showing up...and now Beholder dropping out...he's got all his bases covered and there is NO RESULT on Saturday that will make him eat crow...

Well played EMD...we concede whatever result happens on Saturday to you...

Well played???

You guys have lost your minds and are thinking with your hearts 100%.

Don't blame me for stating things as they are. I am only the messenger.

But it looks like people don't like the truth so they blame the messenger.

I'm wasting my breath on here.

[EMD4ME]

Steve byk had the keeneland clocker on his radio show about 3 days ago. he said "I'd just make a left turn and head for home on this track"

huh? then i saw yesterday's races.

Stop!!! No logic allowed here. Must be an AP fan and tout his praises no matter what.

[biggestal99]

END4ME, AP may not be the greatest of all time, but he beat one of the toughest fields to be assembled in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, then beat them again after they had taken naps to rebuild their strength for the Belmont.

You have do be a damn Liberal Democrat who thinks Hillary can do no wrong.
Enjoy your misery and hoping all your tickets get crushed when AP wins. of course it will only be because of the BIAS.

Wasn't hard for me to bet against ap in the travers, wont be hard for me to bet against ap in the classic, its all about price, he'll be way overbet again, if he beats me,hebeats me.

Its horseracing betting 101, beatthe overlaid chalkie, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesnt.

Allan

[cj]

You're only adding to the point, thanks. If the track was pro off the pace, more prices would have won.

When are dirt tracks pro "off the pace"? Not very often.

The track received a lot of moisture the past few days. It is hardly surprising it would be more kind to speed than it has been the rest of the meet.

That said, yesterday's track won't get a bias notation from TimeformUS. It wasn't even really close to even getting pink (speed favoring), let alone red (highly speed favoring).

[dnlgfnk]

[QUOTE=EMD4ME]1) Excuse me? You couldn't be more wrong. Guess Andy Beyer, Andy Serling and EMD4ME are all complete morons when it comes to horseracing.

Although Beyer never recommended becoming one's own personal agronomist...

https://books.google.com/books?id=0ulkXLmBB6MC&pg=PA120&lpg=PA120&dq=picking+winners+agronomist&source=bl&ots=ZhuoN7vAzC&sig=HF9IIluG1lPVG_CmIel5KMn0otM&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAGoVChMI6f2U_bXqyAIVVM1jCh0XxAL4#v=on epage&q=picking%20winners%20agronomist&f=false

As for me, after three decades (roughly 1980 to later last decade) of compiling my own mental database (I made a visual chart of thousands of races, plotting positions at the calls and noting why the horses didn't run to their public odds, in terms of pace), I noticed the universal tendency, not the strict rule, that outside horses out broke their inner favored rivals and were able to begin in "neutral", as the inner horses expended energy to get position. Contrarily, inner horses who didn't overtly suffer on the backstretch tended to capitalize from the mathematical advantage of saving ground on the turns, whether in the lead or rallying nearer the rail on the turn.

I have concluded that adding to the complexity of racing outcomes is the fact, for me, that the straightaways inherently and subtly favor the outside, while of course the innermost path on the turn is mathematically optimal, i.e., two tracks in one. What it does in the overall, is affect pace and prestretch energy expended.

How to approach it? I gradually disowned the efforts to project specific race development projections, and moved comfortably into speculating (another Beyer insight for your consideration)...

https://books.google.com/books?id=UJTSqbt0Fj0C&pg=PA132&dq=andrew+beyer+gerald+loeb+speculation&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CDAQ6AEwAGoVChMIiO2RqbvqyAIVBNhjCh1-tQCs#v=onepage&q=andrew%20beyer%20gerald%20loeb%20speculation&f=false

on who will benefit (or not) from the potential pace/"bias" scenario, in the pursuit of overlays. Isn't that the goal, instead of developing a "passion" over individual horses and their overall greatness or lack thereof?

[PaceAdvantage]

Well played???

You guys have lost your minds and are thinking with your hearts 100%.

Don't blame me for stating things as they are. I am only the messenger.

But it looks like people don't like the truth so they blame the messenger.

I'm wasting my breath on here.There you go again.

I just finished writing I don't care if AP wins or loses...either way I'll be happy (as long as I cash against him). So where does this "thinking with my heart" come into play, exactly?

You are so far over the top I can't take you seriously any longer on the issue of AP. Your opinion is not to be trusted. Talk about thinking with your heart on this one...there is NOTHING this horse can do that can impress you...except of course the Haskell... :rolleyes:

I was so SHOCKED that you were impressed by his Haskell...it made ZERO SENSE to me...so you've made ZERO sense to me this whole time concerning this horse.

[EMD4ME]

There you go again.

I just finished writing I don't care if AP wins or loses...either way I'll be happy (as long as I cash against him). So where does this "thinking with my heart" come into play, exactly?

You are so far over the top I can't take you seriously any longer on the issue of AP. Your opinion is not to be trusted. Talk about thinking with your heart on this one...there is NOTHING this horse can do that can impress you...except of course the Haskell... :rolleyes:

I was so SHOCKED that you were impressed by his Haskell...it made ZERO SENSE to me...so you've made ZERO sense to me this whole time concerning this horse.

The Haskell was his best race of his life. What was I supposed to do? Be biased and think with my heart and say he wasn't impressive?

I call it like it is. That simple.

P.S. Maybe people can't fathom a guy thinking logically and calling it like it is?

[EMD4ME]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage]There you go again.

I just finished writing I don't care if AP wins or loses...either way I'll be happy (as long as I cash against him). So where does this "thinking with my heart" come into play, exactly?


I wasn't referring to you. It's the other AP homers I was referring to.

[EMD4ME]

When are dirt tracks pro "off the pace"? Not very often.

The track received a lot of moisture the past few days. It is hardly surprising it would be more kind to speed than it has been the rest of the meet.

That said, yesterday's track won't get a bias notation from TimeformUS. It wasn't even really close to even getting pink (speed favoring), let alone red (highly speed favoring).

CJ,

I wasn't saying it was a speed bias. I was just pointing out the beginning of a new possible trend that is the opposite of what the track played like the rest of the meet.

The track wasn't pro off the pace, that was my point.

[EMD4ME]

There is nothing like a preemptive strike to ensure that your opinion can be upheld in your own eyes. If AP wins, it's the track, if he loses you can pound your chest and say you told us so.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126835&page=2

I am one way on this AndyC.

See attached.

Justice will be served tomorrow at 5:37.

[PaceAdvantage]

The Haskell was his best race of his life. What was I supposed to do? Be biased and think with my heart and say he wasn't impressive?We see things very differently. How you can say it was the best race of his life, yet totally discount his Belmont Stakes victory, is BEYOND me...

Maybe that's it...maybe you are just such a better visionary in this game that I can't comprehend your greatness...it's possible. I've never claimed to be any good at this game, in case you haven't noticed...so you could be just so much better than me, it's like an ant trying to comprehend the nature of the human foot about to come crashing down upon his head...

[cj]

CJ,

I wasn't saying it was a speed bias. I was just pointing out the beginning of a new possible trend that is the opposite of what the track played like the rest of the meet.

The track wasn't pro off the pace, that was my point.

Isn't the most likely reason RAIN, not some conspiracy theory?

[cbp]

Well played EMD...we concede whatever result happens on Saturday to you...

All his other bs aside, doesn't he need Tonalist
to win? Do we then really need to concede anything?

[Secondbest]

:ThmbUp:Liam's Map

[EMD4ME]

Isn't the most likely reason RAIN, not some conspiracy theory?

Same way it only rained on the inside paths after race 7 on Travers day?

[cj]

Same way it only rained on the inside paths after race 7 on Travers day?

You think the rail was the place to be that day? I don't buy that for a second.

[EMD4ME]

All his other bs aside, doesn't he need Tonalist
to win? Do we then really need to concede anything?

I posted this elsewhere in another thread:

Priority #1 for me: I hit the race. Meaning pick 6, pick 4, pick 3, verticals.

Priority#2: AP loses the race

Priority #3: Tonalist wins. If AP loses and I cash, I don't mind whatsoever if Tonalist loses.

I don't bet with my heart. Bet with my spock brain.

Beholder was a B for me. Had Tonalist as the sole A. Beholder and Keen Ice as B's and Smooth Roller Frosted as C's.

Now with the scratch of Beholder. That will change. I need to contemplate how I will bet the Classic.

[EMD4ME]

You think the rail was the place to be that day? I don't buy that for a second.

Rail WAS BAD for races 1-7. Track changed after race 7.

[EMD4ME]

You think the rail was the place to be that day? I don't buy that for a second.

Runhappy didn't mind the rail from 7/16 on. (Isn't that where AP was?)

The runner up didn't mind the rail for most of the backstretch (till Runhappy took the RAIL from him inside the 7/16's).


https://www.nyra.com/saratoga/videos/race-replay/STD/2015/20150829/8/headon/

P.S. Watershed, who was MASSACRED at the start, FLEW HOME UP THE RAIL in the same race (4 horse).

Yes many times horses overcome but not like that....

[EMD4ME]

You know what guys, you're all right and I'm a jackass. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

That Keeneland track doesn't look to be speed biased at all today.

Those first two races were complete closer's tracks. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Haven't made 1 wager at KEE in the 1st two races as I smelled the bias going into it.

Don't think I'll make a wager today until much later in the card.

[PaceAdvantage]

You know what guys, you're all right and I'm a jackass. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

That Keeneland track doesn't look to be speed biased at all today.

Those first two races were complete closer's tracks. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Haven't made 1 wager at KEE in the 1st two races as I smelled the bias going into it.

Don't think I'll make a wager today until much later in the card.Let the unraveling begin.

PS. Nobody said you were a jackass. I just said your opinion can't be trusted when it comes to AP...you're too emotional about this horse...too invested...

You are as irrational about this horse as you accuse the AP lovers of being, only in the opposite direction.

[depalma113]

You know what guys, you're all right and I'm a jackass. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

That Keeneland track doesn't look to be speed biased at all today.

Those first two races were complete closer's tracks. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Haven't made 1 wager at KEE in the 1st two races as I smelled the bias going into it.

Don't think I'll make a wager today until much later in the card.

Imagine how much money you could have made if your weren't carrying such a grudge.

[cj]

Those first two races were complete closer's tracks. :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

And then the third happened...usually it is the horses dictating results, not the track.

[EMD4ME]

And then the third happened...usually it is the horses dictating results, not the track.

I don't know about that. I bet a small win bet on the 8 and 10, solely because I thought 1 of them would get the lead. Kicking myself for not betting more but I wasn't right, I was just stupid lucky as the 8 sat 1 length back 3 wide and won.

It's obviously not a tiring surface so far as the closer's couldn't get past the 8.

At the 5/16, I felt I had no CHANCE as it looked like the closers would run 123.

That tells me speed is carrying very well, regardless of path.

[EMD4ME]

Let the unraveling begin.

PS. Nobody said you were a jackass. I just said your opinion can't be trusted when it comes to AP...you're too emotional about this horse...too invested...

You are as irrational about this horse as you accuse the AP lovers of being, only in the opposite direction.

That's where I totally, respectfully and calmly disagree.

I am not anti-AP because I hate him or wish him harm.

I am judging him off his races, nothing else. The horse is over hyped and is not that good.

For christ sakes, we had the track maintenance crew alter the track during Travers week to ensure he gets the best of the bias.

Do we not remember a DEAD rail for days prior to Travers week?????

And when speed and the rail wasn't golded ON travers day, what happened?

They doctored the track up after race 7. All of a sudden, the rail was fine, Runhappy ran 3 LENGTHS FASTER than Private Zone (WHILE RUNHAPPY WAS ON A DEAD RAIL?????, NO WAY, of course the rail was fine after race 7)

Now, I could, for 1 singular second understand someone thinking I'm biased IF only I said this.

HOWEVER, we have people on track who noticed the water trucks only water and harrow the INSIDE after race 7.....

THAT, my friends, should make you hesitate before you think I'm nuts and make up conspiracy theories.

I call it like I see it PERIOD. No bias, no anti AP feelings causing my thoughts.

[PaceAdvantage]

That's where I totally, respectfully and calmly disagree.

I am not anti-AP because I hate him or wish him harm.

I am judging him off his races, nothing else. The horse is over hyped and is not that good.

For christ sakes, we had the track maintenance crew alter the track during Travers week to ensure he gets the best of the bias.

Do we not remember a DEAD rail for days prior to Travers week?????

And when speed and the rail wasn't golded ON travers day, what happened?

They doctored the track up after race 7. All of a sudden, the rail was fine, Runhappy ran 3 LENGTHS FASTER than Private Zone (WHILE RUNHAPPY WAS ON A DEAD RAIL?????, NO WAY, of course the rail was fine after race 7)

Now, I could, for 1 singular second understand someone thinking I'm biased IF only I said this.

HOWEVER, we have people on track who noticed the water trucks only water and harrow the INSIDE after race 7.....

THAT, my friends, should make you hesitate before you think I'm nuts and make up conspiracy theories.

I call it like I see it PERIOD. No bias, no anti AP feelings causing my thoughts.I just finished telling you this kind of thing has gone on for decades...Easy Goer's Belmont was one of the GREATEST EXAMPLES OF ALL TIME. And that was what? 26 years ago!! (HOLY SHIT HAS IT BEEN THAT LONG?)

Do you take Easy Goer's Belmont away from him like you are taking all of APs wins away from him for various reasons?

It's so painfully obvious to any outside observer that you are thinking with more than your head in this case. You are so emotionally and egotistically invested against this horse, it isn't funny.

I should know. I was the same way with Zenyatta...but at least in that case, she really deserved it... :lol:

[classhandicapper]

In recent years Beyer figures have been running about 6 points slower at the top of the scale than they were just a handful of years ago. Maybe it's the lack of steroids. Maybe it's better testing. It doesn't matter. Add 6 points to each of AP's figures and that will give you a better feel for where he fits relative to some of the other top 3yos in the pre-shrinkage era. Either that or become a competent class handicapper and you'll already know that this is a good crop of 3yos. ;)

[iceknight]

SHOCKER-looks like (after thursday's card that Keeneland) the track super worked on the track to make sure speed was more effective.

5 out of 9 wired
3 out of 9 were very UP CLOSE to wire
1 off pace to wire

Chee, I wonder who they are trying to benefit :eek:

Why don't they just make sure gate 4 gets a 3 second head start while they are it. :D :D :D The Gates open at the SAME TIME for ALL the horses. They are welcome to begin running from the get go instead of hoping for some pace collapse. Or. if you have a monster kick - you can start slow and still close well - champion horses don't complain.

[EMD4ME]

I just finished telling you this kind of thing has gone on for decades...Easy Goer's Belmont was one of the GREATEST EXAMPLES OF ALL TIME. And that was what? 26 years ago!! (HOLY SHIT HAS IT BEEN THAT LONG?)

Do you take Easy Goer's Belmont away from him like you are taking all of APs wins away from him for various reasons?

It's so painfully obvious to any outside observer that you are thinking with more than your head in this case. You are so emotionally and egotistically invested against this horse, it isn't funny.

I should know. I was the same way with Zenyatta...but at least in that case, she really deserved it... :lol:


Sadly it has been 26 years. I hate father time :(

I'm not complaining that the Travers card was impacted by the maintenance crew. It's our job to assess what's going on to be better handicappers. I'm just speaking about it because it's part of the handicapping process. Not because I'm trying to find a way to hate this horse.

[PhantomOnTour]

Bias or not, I think Commissioner is best in the Fayette and can wire this field.
Will not take him at less than 9-2 odds

[EMD4ME]

In recent years Beyer figures have been running about 6 points slower at the top of the scale than they were just a handful of years ago. Maybe it's the lack of steroids. Maybe it's better testing. It doesn't matter. Add 6 points to each of AP's figures and that will give you a better feel for where he fits relative to some of the other top 3yos in the pre-shrinkage era. Either that or become a competent class handicapper and you'll already know that this is a good crop of 3yos. ;)

I do agree. (on the beyer shrinkage).

I would also say these 3 year olds are not that bad. They are in fact pretty good.

How many of them has AP had to deal with?

Please don't tell me he beat any of them in the Preakness. He didn't.

Please don't tell me he beat any of them in the Derby. The Derby (due to the accordion after the start, became a 3 speed number) only had him beat the Amazing Firing Line in an AAALLLLLLLLLL out drive (with a perfect 3 wide stalk), a bump at the 1/8 pole and 32 whips.

Please don't tell me he was amazing in the Boatmont. Jogging for 8 furlongs while everyone else took a nap till the far turn was not impressive.

Which leaves us with what the Haskell and Travers?

Who did he actually run down in the Haskell (his greatest race in my eyes). Competitive Edge....Enough said on that one. I don't really count Keen Ice because that was a track that gave any closer no shot, especially at 9F (vs. 10F but they don't run 10F at MTH).

Which amazing 3 year old did he beat in the Travers? He finally had someone breath on him and he barely won a mid race battle by a length or so. WOW, how impressive :rolleyes: Yeah, he was really showing guts coming home in 27 seconds. :rolleyes:

So it leads to my next question. If a 3 year old who is running 105's is really running 111's (WHICH, seriously, I totally agree the beyer scale has shrunk) what does it say for older horses who are running 110's?

They are really running 116's, which still makes the older good horses 3 lengths faster than AP.

Give AP any kind of a taxing trip and he's not running no 111's. He's running 100-104 at best.

Give Tonalist a tough trip, he's still running 107's.

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't listen to those who say AP is one of the greatest of all time (there aren't many of those people out there). They can't possibly know this. He's one of the best 3yos of all time, but he's not one of the GREATEST 3yos of all time. There is a difference.

We have no idea how good AP is in terms of comparing him to historical "greatness." Nobody really thought much of Seattle Slew (relatively) after he won the Triple Crown (or so I've heard...he was a bit before my time). And look at how he turned out...

It's equally stupid on both fronts to put this horse on the highest pedestal, or toss him in the garbage dump...at this point in time.

You are firmly in the latter group...and if you're not, then you're not communicating effectively.

I say this with peace and love. I hope you make a killing today and tomorrow on the BC races...

[EMD4ME]

Don't listen to those who say AP is one of the greatest of all time (there aren't many of those people out there). They can't possibly know this. He's one of the best 3yos of all time, but he's not one of the GREATEST 3yos of all time. There is a difference.

We have no idea how good AP is in terms of comparing him to historical "greatness." Nobody really thought much of Seattle Slew (relatively) after he won the Triple Crown (or so I've heard...he was a bit before my time). And look at how he turned out...

It's equally stupid on both fronts to put this horse on the highest pedestal, or toss him in the garbage dump...at this point in time.

You are firmly in the latter group...and if you're not, then you're not communicating effectively.

I say this with peace and love. I hope you make a killing today and tomorrow on the BC races...

You too PA! And I hope everyone else on here makes a killing as well :ThmbUp:

And, I hope they share their success stories afterwards.

Maybe I am not communicating as clear as I should. To wrap this up, I am responding to those who think he is amazing and one of the best horses ever.

I am not throwing him in a garbage can, he is a good horse. However, I don't see him near anything close to great.

He is one of the most over hyped, right place/right time horses I have seen in a long time.

And I'm not kidding when I say there are conspiracies involved, I'm not crazy and it doesn't take a genius to see just how possible it is for all that I am hinting to be true, to get their $20-$40 Million.

[classhandicapper]

Race Day was another horse that spent a lot of time on the rail on Travers day. There's almost no question the inside was not the place to be that day even though a few horses ran OK in there.

[Simple Syrup]

Bias or not, I think Commissioner is best in the Fayette and can wire this field.
Will not take him at less than 9-2 odds


Commissioner is who I was looking at too, and I probably would have taken 4:1.

[PhantomOnTour]

Commissioner is who I was looking at too, and I probably would have taken 4:1.
I did not envision that trip - 4 wide thru most of the first turn usually equals doom. :ThmbDown:
Winner got a dream trip

[classhandicapper]

end4me

You admit this is a good crop. He won the Triple Crown and Haskell against them, but somehow he's ordinary. :lol:

Good older horses are SUPPOSED to be running faster than good 3yos until late in the year. He demonstrated that he was improving in the Haskell when he put up a 109 (115) while being eased through the stretch. The Travers was a lot to ask, a tough trip, and now more than ever I think he was on the inferior path. Race Day just came off that path to win a stake at KEE.

[Tom]

Same way it only rained on the inside paths after race 7 on Travers day?

Yup.
Scattered showers.

[Tom]

end4me

You admit this is a good crop. He won the Triple Crown and Haskell against them, but somehow he's ordinary. :lol:



Before any of the races are run, I will say AP is HOY no matters what happens.
no matter wh0 wins.

No one has impacted racing this year more than AP has.
He broke a 37 year drought.
Honor Code wins, it would make it close.
But AP did what has not been done since the 70's. I was wearing bell bottoms!

[cj]

But AP did what has not been done since the 70's. I was wearing bell bottoms!

I was wearing tube socks with three big stripes at the top.

[cbp]

I don't concede that this is a particularly good 3 year old crop nor that AP stacks up favorably against most recent triple crown winners. In fact, any number of non triple crown winners were better, IMO. He's in a good spot tomorrow but that doesn't really prove much more.

[whodoyoulike]

You know what guys, you're all right and I'm a jackass. ...

I may have been wrong about you. It takes a certain type of character to admit this on a forum, unless you really are.

[EMD4ME]

I'm HAPPY I was wrong about the track today. Although close ups and speed has done well overall, I'm at least happy today hasn't been a speed brigade.

I want a fair track for tomorrow.

[Rookies]

But AP did what has not been done since the 70's. I was wearing bell bottoms!

:lol:

Embarrassing indeed Tommy. But, we've all got pix like that to come out of our closets! :rolleyes:

[Kash$]

Track in concrete

[Valuist]

You think the rail was the place to be that day? I don't buy that for a second.

Absolutely. Rail was NOT the place to be on Travers day at Saratoga.