kingfin66
06-12-2004, 04:02 PM
Track: Hollywood Date: 06-12-2004
Race: 1 Selection: ML:
Analysis: Not going to try to beat a good-looking favorite. PASS.
Race: 2 Selection: 4 ML: 8/1
Analysis: 8.5F, C16000. F is #5, pace is pressured. The fav #9 has a +5 PPF and EP running style. My choice has +2 PPF and a better running style (P) for the race (is also more a closer visually). Main competition is the #5 and #9.
Race: 3 Selection: 10 ML: 8/1
Analysis: A very contentious turf route with a neutral running style. There are also 2 foreign shippers running in the US for the 1st or 2nd time. PASS? I think not. I will go with the top PPF horse. The horse is also in good recent form. Has a real shot if the pace is truly neutral. There are also some nice exotics poss.
Race: 4 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A 5 horse field with little value. PASS.
Race: 5 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A n1x Allowance, turf route. The pace is neutral and the top 2 horses are S types. Not a good fit and I really don’t like n1 races. PASS.
Race: 6 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A MSW sprint with 5 first timers. Another good one to PASS.
Race: 7 Selection: ML:
Analysis: Another turf route. There is a nice big gapped horse with a +9 PPF. He only backs it up with +2s. Doing some what if handicapping and dropping that lines results in ratings for the contenders of +3, +3, +3, +2, +2. No separation, 3 VTRs. PASS.
Race: 8 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A n2l race disguised as an AOC c25000. These are not my forte. PASS.
Race: 9 Selection: 8 ML: 5/1
Analysis: Here we go. A route with Heavy Pressure. Where are those closers? The P & S horses have the top ratings, while the E/P horses have the lower ratings. The trick, then, is to structure a winning play. My choice is #8. He has a Pressing style, the top PPF, a decent PBS. He will lay just off the leader. For those of you who know Reversal Protocol, he lost to the favorite on 5/8/04.
Race: 10 Selection: 13 ML: 7/2
Analysis: This race actually looks fairly easy. The race is a 7F MSW with a neutral pace scenario. #13 has a 9-gap PPF advantage, a good PBS, is a lone VTR, and has a good odds line balance. He looks like a very solid favorite, but will likely be bet way, way down.
Today’s Hollywood card is full of nice races. Some of these races will be better to watch than to bet, but hey, that’s racing for you. Good luck to all.
Race: 1 Selection: ML:
Analysis: Not going to try to beat a good-looking favorite. PASS.
Race: 2 Selection: 4 ML: 8/1
Analysis: 8.5F, C16000. F is #5, pace is pressured. The fav #9 has a +5 PPF and EP running style. My choice has +2 PPF and a better running style (P) for the race (is also more a closer visually). Main competition is the #5 and #9.
Race: 3 Selection: 10 ML: 8/1
Analysis: A very contentious turf route with a neutral running style. There are also 2 foreign shippers running in the US for the 1st or 2nd time. PASS? I think not. I will go with the top PPF horse. The horse is also in good recent form. Has a real shot if the pace is truly neutral. There are also some nice exotics poss.
Race: 4 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A 5 horse field with little value. PASS.
Race: 5 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A n1x Allowance, turf route. The pace is neutral and the top 2 horses are S types. Not a good fit and I really don’t like n1 races. PASS.
Race: 6 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A MSW sprint with 5 first timers. Another good one to PASS.
Race: 7 Selection: ML:
Analysis: Another turf route. There is a nice big gapped horse with a +9 PPF. He only backs it up with +2s. Doing some what if handicapping and dropping that lines results in ratings for the contenders of +3, +3, +3, +2, +2. No separation, 3 VTRs. PASS.
Race: 8 Selection: ML:
Analysis: A n2l race disguised as an AOC c25000. These are not my forte. PASS.
Race: 9 Selection: 8 ML: 5/1
Analysis: Here we go. A route with Heavy Pressure. Where are those closers? The P & S horses have the top ratings, while the E/P horses have the lower ratings. The trick, then, is to structure a winning play. My choice is #8. He has a Pressing style, the top PPF, a decent PBS. He will lay just off the leader. For those of you who know Reversal Protocol, he lost to the favorite on 5/8/04.
Race: 10 Selection: 13 ML: 7/2
Analysis: This race actually looks fairly easy. The race is a 7F MSW with a neutral pace scenario. #13 has a 9-gap PPF advantage, a good PBS, is a lone VTR, and has a good odds line balance. He looks like a very solid favorite, but will likely be bet way, way down.
Today’s Hollywood card is full of nice races. Some of these races will be better to watch than to bet, but hey, that’s racing for you. Good luck to all.