Breeders Cup 2x2x2 thread ( Mortal locks , Tosses, Longshots )

[Si2see]

Let's see how everyone does for breeders cup weekend.

What are you best

2 Lock plays for the win spot

2 Toss outs regardless of odds ( horses that will not make it on your tickets )

2 Best longshot plays of the weekend

Should be fun to see public picks from those that dare to post !!! :lol:

[Mc990]

Not sure if I'd classify them as locks but my 2 most confident plays will be on
Artemis Agrotera
Tonalist

Tosses will be-
Liam's Map (very peculiar and troublesome that this one isn't taking a shot in the classic. May not be 100% healthy)
Private Zone (wont make the lead and potential ground loss a concern)

Longshots-
Grand Arch (has multiple figures that make him a winner if he can save ground. Dead rail in last)
Mongolian Saturday (if he can clear from the outside, he's as good as any in here).

[PhantomOnTour]

I have no mortal locks, but I'm looking at two longshots from the Filly & Mare Turf:
Sentiero Italia (15-1)
Secret Gesture (10-1)

There's literally no speed in this race and one or both of these gals can hang in there a long time up front & maybe win it.

I will toss Beholder from the top two slots on my Classic ticket. :eek:
By my humble numbers (my HumNums) she simply isn't fast enough, period, end of story for me.

[Si2see]

2 locks
- :7: Tepin. Saturday race 8. I typically don't like speed horses on the turf , however I think this horse will be able to rate and have a good early position, and I physically saw the horse win the First Lady in her last start. She came out of the race in great shape and her performance was visually stunning
- :3: Taris. Saturday Race 5. Sure this horse hasn't proven to be the same horse since transferring barns, but I am willing to risk my money because she loved this track and was absolutely astonishing here last October. I think if she can run a race like that she would win this race pretty easily. At double digit odds I am willing to take that chance.

2 tosses
- :7: Nickname. Saturday race 3. I don't like this horse chasing songbird and think if someone beats songbird it will be from off the pace.
- :13: Nyquist Saturday race 9. Although there are a few red flags in my opinion with those horse... I think he is outposted and will prove to be outclassed. Look at his rival swipe, does this horse look like a breeders cup caliber horse in your eyes? He doesn't to me however I would be more prone to take him rather than nyquist because the price will be more than 5 times nyquist

2 long shots
- :11: Eagle. Friday race 5. I loved this horses last race. I am not sure if this horse is good enoug, or if it's running style is ideal but the horse liked the track last time out
- :6: Twilight Eclipse. Race 10 Saturday. I have never been this horse's biggest fan but it ran a great great last time out, should've won with any luck. Not saying the horse can beat golden horn but I will be using in all underneath slots and on top on a few wagers

[Track Phantom]

LOCKS
#1 GOLDEN HORN (4-5) BC Turf: Only the other Euro, Found, has any possible chance to make this a race. You've got Golden Horn (top horse in the world), Found (a few lengths off of Golden Horn) and a very suspect field afterwards. No chance Golden Horn gets beat unless the inside part of the turf is not to his liking.

#3 LIAM'S MAP (1-1) BC Dirt Mile: I mean, c'mon. He's the controlling speed, the class and game as hell. It would take something unforseen for him to lose in this field. Lea is not the same runner as he was when he won the Donn. The others are nice but not nearly as talented.


BET AGAINST
#13 NYQUIST (9-2) BC Juvenile: Undefeated in So. Cal. but who did he face? 3rd place finisher in the Del Mar Futurity, Blameitonthelaw, who I thought was going to be something, came back and was drilled in the 71k Speakeasy. He draws post 13. No thanks.

#5 GLENEAGLES (20-1) BC Classic: I know some people are calling him a viable price play. He's never raced in the U. S., never raced on dirt ,never been over a mile. He's a top quality runner but think this is just too tough of a Classic this year to take him seriously.


LONGSHOTS
#12 CAMELOT KITTEN (12-1) BC Juvenile Turf: How about this pedigree for a Breeders' Cup turf race: He's a half to Bobby's Kitten (won 1.3M) who was 3rd in the '13 BC Juvenile Turf and won the '14 BC Turf Sprint. 2nd dam was unraced but she is a half to Paradise Creek (won 3.4M) who was 2nd in the '92 BC Mile, 3rd in the '94 BC Turf and won 4 other G1 races on grass. The 2nd dam is also a half to Forbidden Apple (won 1.4M) who was 2nd in the '01 BC Mile and 3rd in the '02 Arlington Million. 2nd dam was also a half to Wild Event (won 1M) who won the '99 G1 Early Times Turf Classic at CD. Finally, the 3rd dam is a half to the great Theatrical (won 3M) who was 2nd in the '86 BC Turf and won the '87 BC Turf. He also won 5 additional G1's on turf. This runner is trained by Chad Brown, won this race twice and was 2nd in this race twice in the last 5 years. He made a huge move in the Bourbon despite getting in tight at the top of the lane.

#4 UNBRIDLED OUTLAW (15-1) BC Juvenile: There are a lot of price runners you can consider in this spot. This one was bet down to 3-2 odds in the debut for a trainer who doesn't normally take a ton of action first time out in MSW at a main track sprinting on the dirt. In fact, this horse went off lower than any other of Romans 1sters under those conditions. He then was off slow and shuffled most of the way. He was green and didn't change leads until late. He was 2-5 in a MSW at ELP and ducked right to the rail and hit the rail. He was then gathered up and hand-ridden to a win over R Rated Superstar, a future G1 placed runner who is in this race. He was then sitting nicely on the rail in the Iroquois, moved up mid-race like he was going to blow the doors off that field, was checked and steadied so badly it looked like would fade to last and somehow came back on and finished with serious run. He was clearly best in that race. Gets a massive rider move from a very good Lanerie, to a living legend in Mike Smith.

[arw629]

2 locks
1. Golden Horn - Out classes this field and in top form
2A. Rachel ' s Valentina - The legend of Rach Alexandra lives on
2.B. Tonalist

2 toss outs
1. The 3 yr Olds in the classic...AP is good but I honestly don't believe he is faster than this bunch ...keen ice is 2 for 11 lifetime and Frosted 3 for 12
2. Sheer Drama

2 long shots
1. Secret Gesture
2. Ivan Fallunovalot

[Kash$]

Locks(Value)

AiroForce
Land Over Sea

Tosses
Runhappy
Tepin

Longshots
Barbados
Frosted

[MutuelClerk]

Locks: Harmonize
Run Happy

Sleepers: Bawina
Unbridled Outlaw

Bad Favorites: Wedding Toast
Lady Shipman

Enjoy. Good luck to all.....

[PICSIX]

2 locks
- :7: Tepin. Saturday race 8. I typically don't like speed horses on the turf , however I think this horse will be able to rate and have a good early position, and I physically saw the horse win the First Lady in her last start. She came out of the race in great shape and her performance was visually stunning
- :3: Taris. Saturday Race 5. Sure this horse hasn't proven to be the same horse since transferring barns, but I am willing to risk my money because she loved this track and was absolutely astonishing here last October. I think if she can run a race like that she would win this race pretty easily. At double digit odds I am willing to take that chance.

2 tosses
- :7: Nickname. Saturday race 3. I don't like this horse chasing songbird and think if someone beats songbird it will be from off the pace.
- :13: Nyquist Saturday race 9. Although there are a few red flags in my opinion with those horse... I think he is outposted and will prove to be outclassed. Look at his rival swipe, does this horse look like a breeders cup caliber horse in your eyes? He doesn't to me however I would be more prone to take him rather than nyquist because the price will be more than 5 times nyquist

2 long shots
- :11: Eagle. Friday race 5. I loved this horses last race. I am not sure if this horse is good enoug, or if it's running style is ideal but the horse liked the track last time out
- :6: Twilight Eclipse. Race 10 Saturday. I have never been this horse's biggest fan but it ran a great great last time out, should've won with any luck. Not saying the horse can beat golden horn but I will be using in all underneath slots and on top on a few wagers

Great analysis....way to go!!!! :ThmbUp:

[Grits]

Nice work Si2see!! :)

[Si2see]

:13: nyquist jinx me :rolleyes:

[ultracapper]

My oldest son takes a shot now and then, maybe makes 3 or 4 bets a month. Had $10WP on Swipe. I told him ignorance is bliss. Thought he might get there.

[Si2see]

Had the swipe / found / ap p3, would've been sweet. I still don't like nyquist and if he keeps winning I will lose every time.

[NorCalGreg]

Not sure if I'd classify them as locks but my 2 most confident plays will be on
Artemis Agrotera
Tonalist

Tosses will be-
Liam's Map (very peculiar and troublesome that this one isn't taking a shot in the classic. May not be 100% healthy)
Private Zone (wont make the lead and potential ground loss a concern)

Longshots-
Grand Arch (has multiple figures that make him a winner if he can save ground. Dead rail in last)
Mongolian Saturday (if he can clear from the outside, he's as good as any in here).

Mongolian Saturday Nice Mc990 $33.80 $13.60 $7.80
Hope that pick made your weekend :ThmbUp: