BC Turf Mile

[ten2oneormore]

Can someone help me make sense of this race? I feel like all 12 horses have around the same chance to win.

[Tom]

I'm looking at the :4: and the :11: pretty closely.
Good odds, best closers.

[Rex Phinney]

I'll bet this one like I do all the other BC turf races.

Pick every Euro in the field, exacta box.

Done. LOL

[NorCalGreg]

I'm looking at the :4: and the :11: pretty closely.
Good odds, best closers.


Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t :lol: . I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Top_3_Most_Likely_Breeders_Cup_Pace_Meltdowns_123

[Spalding No!]

If the Euro form holds Make Believe will win. Reportedly likes it soft and there is rain in the forecast at Keeneland all week.

He dominated the French 2000 Guineas winning wire to wire, pulling throughout. New Bay came back to win the French Derby and the Prix Neil before running third to Golden Horn in the Arc. Highland Reel went globetrotting and took down the Secretariat at Arlington before running third in the prestigious Cox Plate in Australia. Muhaarar has won 4 straight Group 1s sprinting since the race.

Andre Fabre reportedly was only going to enter the mare in the race, but this horse showed up when post positions were drawn.

[letswastemoney]

Tepin won on this course by seven lengths. That is fairly significant for a turf race, even though it was against females.

I like her to win.

Impassable and Karakontie my other two.

[NorCalGreg]

Tepin won on this course by seven lengths. That is fairly significant for a turf race, even though it was against females.

I like her to win.

Impassable and Karakontie my other two.

Using strictly class ratings, picked Mondialiste in that big Woodbine Mile Stakes Race that Wise Dan owned until recently --I'll try to go 2 for 2 w/Mon' again.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Using strictly class ratings, picked Mondialiste in that big Woodbine Mile Stakes Race that Wise Dan owned until recently --I'll try to go 2 for 2 w/Mon' again.

Yep.

Mondialiste was a 2nd/3rd tier turfer on the Euro scene, but was able to win as easily as a 1/2 length winner of a G1 at Woodbine last out with a somewhat troubled trip.

Esoterique and Make Believe will get solid action, but Time Test may well be the value of the race.

I'll play with Obviously or Tourist on the front end that may be able to steal it.

[ebcorde]

he comes with two top Horses. Maybe 1-2. Racingpost RPR rates the Horses within several points apart. But I'm hearing talk that the track favors the Americans , Horses that ran well on the surface. Tepin on paper NO WAY. Tepin with a track bias in his favor different story.

I'll probably stick with Fabre, and the 5. Make Believe ran great. Would love to hear what the Euro's think of the course. if anyone knows their opinion I hope they reply

Time test 2 lengths behind Golden Horn
The #4 took Lea out.

I surprised by the amount of quality Euro's that showed up. My guess is they like the track and they think the Americans are weak or


picks: 5,3,9.

[ebcorde]

I'll bet this one like I do all the other BC turf races.

Pick every Euro in the field, exacta box.

Done. LOL
me too. :D

[ebcorde]

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12851424&category=0

[ebcorde]

http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=301&r_date=2015-10-31&tab=sc_

Golden Horn RPR highest by 10 points over the field.

[Grits]

If the Euro form holds Make Believe will win. Reportedly likes it soft and there is rain in the forecast at Keeneland all week.

He dominated the French 2000 Guineas winning wire to wire, pulling throughout. New Bay came back to win the French Derby and the Prix Neil before running third to Golden Horn in the Arc. Highland Reel went globetrotting and took down the Secretariat at Arlington before running third in the prestigious Cox Plate in Australia. Muhaarar has won 4 straight Group 1s sprinting since the race.

Andre Fabre reportedly was only going to enter the mare in the race, but this horse showed up when post positions were drawn.

Spalding, in looking at DRF, TFUS, and Bris, could it not be possible that Fabre's 3, Make Believe, is in the race for the benefit of his 9, Esoterique, the mare? Neither get lasix, but this is only the 3--the colt's, 2nd time facing older. The 9 with 16 starts has 5 this year, ITM with 2-2-1. Also, Esoterique is out of a mare by Dancing Brave. The other Euros look of lesser class. While our runners always do better on firm turf which they're not likely to get on Saturday, will the front end serve those on the lead well should the turf be yielding or soft? Hhhmm. Make Believe appears to be an on or near the lead type.

Flaxman's 11, Karakontie who won this race last year is coming in 3rd off layoff, could he not run back to his figure of last year? He and the 4, Mshawish (this one could be the sleeper with Dettori) have the two highest late speeds, 113 and 129, respectively.

[Grits]

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t :lol: . I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Top_3_Most_Likely_Breeders_Cup_Pace_Meltdowns_123

I never write my handicapping thoughts on here. I don't bother. I've done so, and now I see this. Hell, I'm scared to read it. Matter of fact, I won't. :blush:

[Tom]

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t :lol: . I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Top_3_Most_Likely_Breeders_Cup_Pace_Meltdowns_123

Thanks for the link. Good article. I have the Condensed figs and this race came up as interesting. I haven't done the numbers analysis yet, but the CSP and running styles are a good way to did the races to drill deep in.

[ebcorde]

The Cox Plate was run last Friday night. I listened to the Aussie compare Brit runners to Aussie runners, they remarked that the Brits love to wait while the Aussie use their speed earlier.

The Brits compensate by sending Horse overseas who run closer to the pace. Make Believe near the front of the pack, (hand ridden ). Golden Horn near the front in the Arc. Esoterique near the front. When they get beat in the US it's because they(Jocks, Horses) are not used to Traffic, tight configuration, and whens the time to cut loose. They have to get their horses going much earlier on the last turn. That's their weak spot.

Goldikova would have won 4 straight but got stuck on the rail.
if we took the same Horse in the Breeder's ran them at Ascot. The Euros would sweep all the trifectas.


I think the Euro's will take all the turf races

R6 MISS FRANCE,LEGATISSIMO
R8 MAKE BELIEVE, ESOTERIQUE
R10 Golden Horn ( no way the only Horse in the Arc Mrs. head was afraid of will lose in America) would e the shock of the year.

[cj]

Was just now reading CJ's-write up about probable BC pace melt-downs in Horse Racing Nation. He specifically mentions that Turf Mile. I've never read anything of his--I didn't know he was all smart and sh*t :lol: . I thought his best work was taking down SRU a few pegs.
....am considering ordering that BC Pkg of theirs, and I never order anything. I'm certainly not ashamed to say I can use some help.
here's the link to the article:
http://www.horseracingnation.com/news/Top_3_Most_Likely_Breeders_Cup_Pace_Meltdowns_123

Thanks...ummm...I think.

[EMD4ME]

Thanks...ummm...I think.

:lol: :lol:

I'm sure it was a compliment CJ.

[Grits]

Thanks for the link. Good article. I have the Condensed figs and this race came up as interesting. I haven't done the numbers analysis yet, but the CSP and running styles are a good way to did the races to drill deep in.

Said I wasn't gonna read it. Slept on it. Curiosity got to me. :faint: Tom, we've understood condensed figures a long time. Think like he does before we even know what he's written. Man, that's bad! I got 2 out of 3.:lol:


Turf racing in general is less speed-favoring than dirt racing, and when the pace is expected to be fast, horses racing towards the front of the pack face a daunting task. Of all the races on the card, this one is the most likely to have a fast pace. The reason---Obviously. In 14 starts at one mile on the turf, he has led after six furlongs by a length or more in---you guessed it---14 of them. These 14 starts include the last three editions of this race. The Pace Projector, not surprisingly, thinks Obviously will have a clear lead early while going fast.


While the early pace isn’t likely to be strongly contested, due to Obviously's superior early speed, it will be fast, and that takes a toll on those in closest pursuit. The top two finishers in 2014 were running 10th and 12th early in a 14-horse field. In 2013, Wise Dan won from sixth early while longshot Za Approval rallied from 8th to complete the exacta. It was a 10-horse field. A fast pace doesn’t always aid closers if the pace setter is a top class horse, but Obviously hasn’t been that kind of horse so far in his career, and it is unlikely he is now, at the age of seven. What he is, though, is a nightmare for other speed horses, and that is why this race should be won from off the pace.


Top late threats: Karakontie (11), Mondialiste (4), Esoterique (9)

[Tom]

:D I miss our old discussions.
I'm drawing in the "underlines" on the pages right now!

[depalma113]

Goldikova would have won 4 straight but got stuck on the rail.
if we took the same Horse in the Breeder's ran them at Ascot. The Euros would sweep all the trifectas.

She had no shot at Churchill that day. She was nowhere near the horse she was in her three previous tries. Her kick was gone.

[lansdale]

I used to do pretty well with this race when it was mostly Americans, but stopped playing due the confusion factor of the increased Euro presence. Those Euro horses don't seem quite as daunting this year as in others, but I still agree with those leaning toward Fabre's horses and think that the #9 is the one to beat. Also, agree with Grits on the #11 and #10 as the next best closers. Maybe worth noting that the #9 beat the #11 last year's BC winner, decisively, in August.

Surprised that cj was so high on the #8, a horse that's never been able to rate - think he'll be shadowed closely by the #1, who should blow by him just past the 1/4 pole. The #1 has three wins and three places in six turf races at the track - the horse for the course.

Re the post subject - I'm wondering about the relative weight of average purse value in these races, especially has a way of getting a handle on the foreign horses. I've always found this to be an effective factor in U.S. stakes races, especially those with confusion factors or large fields - and often counterintuitive. I've been told that they're an equally good measure of Euro horses, but I haven't checked this out with any thoroughness. If anybody has any insight into this, would be interested in hearing about it. FWIW, I have the #11 as the top APV horse (mostly based on last year) with a gap to the #10 and the #1, and another gap to the two Fabre horses. Then a small gap to the rest of the field. A horse in the top five wins about 80% of the time in the U.S., but not entirely sure in this context.

Any feedback appreciated.

[cj]

Surprised that cj was so high on the #8, a horse that's never been able to rate - think he'll be shadowed closely by the #1, who should blow by him just past the 1/4 pole. The #1 has three wins and three places in six turf races at the track - the horse for the course.

Where did I say I was high on the 8? I think he has no chance at all. I just think he ensures a fast pace and is trouble for the others that like to be on or near the lead.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think Obviously has a chance...along with two or three others at 12 to 15/1 on the morning line...

[cj]

I think Obviously has a chance...along with two or three others at 12 to 15/1 on the morning line...

He couldn't do it at 4, 5, or 6, no way I'm trying him at 7. But he'll almost assuredly be leading with a furlong to go like he always is...there are worse places to be.

[lansdale]

Where did I say I was high on the 8? I think he has no chance at all. I just think he ensures a fast pace and is trouble for the others that like to be on or near the lead.

Hi cj,

Have to admit I wrote this late and night and skimmed this part of the article, since this was the race I was checking on. I've never used TFUS before (since I haven't been playing) and was unfamiliar with this format, in which you discuss the likely race shape - which horses will be on the lead, which closing, in an open-ended way. You're not really making picks, per se. Clearly you are throwing out the #8 for the win, so my saying you were 'high' on him was a bad choice of words. However, the overall effect of this style is ambiguous - too me it seems possible that you're implying you think this horse could still hit the board - that the closers might just be edging him at the wire. My comments more about this ambiguous approach more than this specific race.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

I think Obviously has a chance...along with two or three others at 12 to 15/1 on the morning line...

If this horse wins, or even hits the board, you are a handicapping genius ;-).