Breeder's Cup Sprint

[PhantomOnTour]

Appears as though a war may break out up front between three main players in Runhappy, Favorite Tale & Private Zone.
So will this thing meltdown?
Although it may wilt a little from the heat, I say no to a meltdown. IMO the deep closers just aren't good enough to get these guys. I will consider :10: Salutos Amigos for some minor slots though.

The rail belongs to Runhappy with his two main pace foes breaking from the far outside slots...no way they get out & get all the way over in front of him (although his gate antics are a concern, and a bad break may be fatal here). Even Masochistic has enough early lick to keep the outsiders from getting all the way over.
I'm looking to a runner who appears as though he'll get a beautiful inside stalking trip, and can take advantage of a pace that should yield a few casualties... :6: Ivan Fallunovalot.
He's got Borel up so he's almost a sure thing to sit on the rail, and I'm hoping he can follow Runhappy, and take a well timed shot at the speeds when they hit the stretch. It would be nice if Runhappy drifts out again and opens the door for Calvin and Ivan.
But is this guy even good enough to hang with this type? He's a wee smidge below the best on figures, but his finest can get him close, and the race dynamic may be all he needs to get into the exacta or better :eek:

This guy reminds me a little of one of my favorite sprinters, Bet On Sunshine who ran in this race about three times I think and may have gotten 3rd once.

Just another tough BrCup race...who ya' got??

[tanner12oz]

Appears as though a war may break out up front between three main players in Runhappy, Favorite Tale & Private Zone.
So will this thing meltdown?
Although it may wilt a little from the heat, I say no to a meltdown. IMO the deep closers just aren't good enough to get these guys. I will consider :10: Salutos Amigos for some minor slots though.

The rail belongs to Runhappy with his two main pace foes breaking from the far outside slots...no way they get out & get all the way over in front of him (although his gate antics are a concern, and a bad break may be fatal here). Even Masochistic has enough early lick to keep the outsiders from getting all the way over.
I'm looking to a runner who appears as though he'll get a beautiful inside stalking trip, and can take advantage of a pace that should yield a few casualties... :6: Ivan Fallunovalot.
He's got Borel up so he's almost a sure thing to sit on the rail, and I'm hoping he can follow Runhappy, and take a well timed shot at the speeds when they hit the stretch. It would be nice if Runhappy drifts out again and opens the door for Calvin and Ivan.
But is this guy even good enough to hang with this type? He's a wee smidge below the best on figures, but his finest can get him close, and the race dynamic may be all he needs to get into the exacta or better :eek:

This guy reminds me a little of one of my favorite sprinters, Bet On Sunshine who ran in this race about three times I think and may have gotten 3rd once.

Just another tough BrCup race...who ya' got??

this is one of the toughest races on the card

[no breathalyzer]

There's a bad stat floating out there that fits to Runhappy.. i will be tossing this horse out. I gave a long look at :6: Ivan Fallunovalot myself

[Tom]

The first thing I look in sprint races is the break call.
These are Runhappy's break positions posts, and field sizes.
Cause for concern.....

[Track Phantom]

Here's the way I look at the Sprint:

The early fractions are likely going to be something like :21.2, :43.4. Horses that can run this fast while being virtually all-out vs horses like Runhappy who can run this fast while keeping just enough in reserve are what separates horses who can handle the pressure and those who can't and fade away when the serious late running begins.

Runhappy has an acceleration from the 1st quarter to the 2nd quarter that is something that the great front running sprinters of the past possessed. In the King's Bishop, he started flat footed, got into the race in short order thereafter, then ran an incredible :22 flat for the 2nd quarter and did so without appearing to expend valuable energy. He draws inside all other speed except Limousine Liberal. He could be sitting on the rail with a half length on the others in cruise mode despite the fast fractions.

However, and this is extremely important, if he breaks poorly again, he could easily be eliminated in the first 100 yards. He got away with slow breaks in the last two because A: he was on the outside in the Kings and B: the rail remained open in the Phoenix. In this race, horses are going to collapse to the inside and he could be without room once he gets his feet. He would have been much better breaking on the outside again and not having to worry about space.

Here are some examples of 1st and 2nd place finishers in the Sprint that basically hooked up in the first furlong or so:
** '87 Very Subtle/Groovy
** '90 Safely Kept/Dayjur
** '92 Thirty Slews/Meafara
** '95 Desert Stormer/Mr. Greeley

Horses like Very Subtle, Groovy, Safely Kept, Dayjur are all legendary sprinters. The Sprint fields have been somewhat weaker in the 2000's and is not surprising that speed could not typically sustain the pressure.

So, what happens? If Runhappy breaks in stride...race over. Period. If Runhappy misses the break, it very possibly could be race over for him. If he misses the break and gets a clear running path, he'll be there a long way and maybe all the way. It's so hard to say.

[Stillriledup]

RH is a throw out at the price. Missing the first step in a 14 horse field isn't something you want with a middle post, no L and an inexperienced trainer.

[Track Phantom]

RH is a throw out at the price. Missing the first step in a 14 horse field isn't something you want with a middle post, no L and an inexperienced trainer.
This isn't a bad approach. I think there is above a 50% chance that he breaks slow and loses a running lane. Very possible.

The no lasix and inexperienced trainer means little to me at this point.

[Stillriledup]

This isn't a bad approach. I think there is above a 50% chance that he breaks slow and loses a running lane. Very possible.

The no lasix and inexperienced trainer means little to me at this point.

Since there's less likely to be a DQ in a BC race, jocks are going to squeeze off those holes, tough to take a short price on this horse.

[PoloUK6108]

Appears as though a war may break out up front between three main players in Runhappy, Favorite Tale & Private Zone.
So will this thing meltdown?
Although it may wilt a little from the heat, I say no to a meltdown. IMO the deep closers just aren't good enough to get these guys. I will consider :10: Salutos Amigos for some minor slots though.

The rail belongs to Runhappy with his two main pace foes breaking from the far outside slots...no way they get out & get all the way over in front of him (although his gate antics are a concern, and a bad break may be fatal here). Even Masochistic has enough early lick to keep the outsiders from getting all the way over.
I'm looking to a runner who appears as though he'll get a beautiful inside stalking trip, and can take advantage of a pace that should yield a few casualties... :6: Ivan Fallunovalot.
He's got Borel up so he's almost a sure thing to sit on the rail, and I'm hoping he can follow Runhappy, and take a well timed shot at the speeds when they hit the stretch. It would be nice if Runhappy drifts out again and opens the door for Calvin and Ivan.
But is this guy even good enough to hang with this type? He's a wee smidge below the best on figures, but his finest can get him close, and the race dynamic may be all he needs to get into the exacta or better :eek:

This guy reminds me a little of one of my favorite sprinters, Bet On Sunshine who ran in this race about three times I think and may have gotten 3rd once.

Just another tough BrCup race...who ya' got??

It's really cool to see someone talk about ol' Sunshine like that. He was my grandpa's horse and is the reason I love this sport. Gave our family some great memories at the track!

Btw, Bet On Sunshine was 3rd in the Sprint twice, and ran in the Sprint 3 times over a 5 year span. 3rd at Hollywood in 97, 3rd at Churchill in 2000, and finished up the track at Belmont in 2001 which he never got a feel for.

[depalma113]

As of right now, I'm building my tickets around these three horses.

Stallwalkin' Dude - He's ran 14 times this year, so we know he's battle tested, sitting on a big race, draws inside and will get first run when the pace collapses.

Salutos Amigos - Looks like he is finally recovered from the trip to Dubai. If he returns to his pre-Dubai form, he's better than everything in this field.

Big Macher - Long layoff horses seem to do well in the Sprint, well worth the risk.

[no breathalyzer]

RH is a throw out at the price. Missing the first step in a 14 horse field isn't something you want with a middle post, no L and an inexperienced trainer.

27-0-1-2: record of runners w/o Lasix in Breeders' Cup dirt races

[cj]

27-0-1-2: record of runners w/o Lasix in Breeders' Cup dirt races

Don't have to look back far...Rich Tapestry. But to be fair he was a known bleeder that didn't have Lasix for other reasons. I doubt many of the non-Lasix users have looked like Runhappy on paper.

[PhantomOnTour]

Private Zone has not run in a 6f race this year.
Midnight Lute is the only runner to win the BrCup Sprint without having competed in a 6f race during the year.

[RunForTheRoses]

IF Jacobsen can get NY numbers at Keeneland I think he has a good shot at all the marbles with Salutos. We'll see.

[cj]

I'm probably going to put him in the winner's circle with this post, but I don't get the Salutos Amigos love at all, both here and other places.

G1 Vosburgh, 2nd
G1 Forego, 5th
G1 Vanderbilt, 4th
G1 Golden Shaheen, 8th
G1 BC Sprint, 7th
G1 Vosburgh, 4th
G1 King's Bishop, 7th

Obviously his last race is the best of his G1 tries, but I think it was an extremely weak rendition of the Vosburgh. I want no parts of him on Saturday.

[Spalding No!]

I'm probably going to put him in the winner's circle with this post, but I don't get the Salutos Amigos love at all, both here and other places.

Obviously his last race is the best of his G1 tries, but I think it was an extremely weak rendition of the Vosburgh. I want no parts of him on Saturday.
Likewise, the Breeder's Cup Sprint itself looks like an extremely weak rendition. That, a vulnerable first flight, and the highest Beyer figure this year at 6f is probably enough to entice some.

If he wins it will not be a memorable rendition of the race. Aside from Private Zone, I think only Wild Dude has won more than one Grade 1 (and both of his were in 5 horse fields).

[cj]

Likewise, the Breeder's Cup Sprint itself looks like an extremely weak rendition. That, a vulnerable first flight, and the highest Beyer figure this year at 6f is probably enough to entice some.

If he wins it will not be a memorable rendition of the race. Aside from Private Zone, I think only Wild Dude has won more than one Grade 1 (and both of his were in 5 horse fields).

It definitely is not the strongest field we've seen. The fact horses like Salutos Amigos and Stallwalkin' Dude are mentioned as possible winners is plenty proof of that.

[classhandicapper]

The thing that makes this race interesting to me is that I'm not sure how it's going to develop. There are a few speed horses that appear to do their best running on the lead. That could easily turn this into a really hot pace. However, they have also sat off the lead on occasion and ran OK.

This is one of those races where I don't think you want to run with Runhappy (assuming he gets out of the gate well and you could stay with him even if you tried), but you can't let him get away too easily or he'll be gone. It almost has to be hot, but will it be hot enough to collapse a 6F race.

[ReplayRandall]

Here are the best current fixed odds on the BC Sprint runners:

Private Zone = 3-1
Runhappy = 7-2
Masochistic = 10-1
Salutos Amigos = 12-1
Wild Dude = 16-1
Barbados = 20-1
Favorite Tale = 20-1
Stallwalkin Dude = 20-1
Big Macher = 25-1
Kobes Back = 25-1
Ivan Fallunovalot = 25-1
Limousine Liberal = 25-1
Holy Boss = 33-1
Alsvid = 50-1
Gentlemens Bet = 66-1


For all other BC races, navigate the attached link:

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/breeders-cup-sprint/winner

[RunForTheRoses]

I'm probably going to put him in the winner's circle with this post, but I don't get the Salutos Amigos love at all, both here and other places.

G1 Vosburgh, 2nd
G1 Forego, 5th
G1 Vanderbilt, 4th
G1 Golden Shaheen, 8th
G1 BC Sprint, 7th
G1 Vosburgh, 4th
G1 King's Bishop, 7th

Obviously his last race is the best of his G1 tries, but I think it was an extremely weak rendition of the Vosburgh. I want no parts of him on Saturday.

I don't think he's a lock and I haven't really looked over the whole field, but the last race he probably could have won without Cornelio the anchor, plus his best Beyers are up there. Not sure about the change in venue, to me that would be the biggest hindrance.

[Stillriledup]

I don't think he's a lock and I haven't really looked over the whole field, but the last race he probably could have won without Cornelio the anchor, plus his best Beyers are up there. Not sure about the change in venue, to me that would be the biggest hindrance.

This 'anchor off' angle is the way to approach the race.

[fasteddied]

Private Zone showed his true colors in the Vossburgh at Belmont last September when he was collared in the lane by Dads Caps and DUG IN to come back and win and has gotten extremely better since then. It is called Heart and he is at the top of his game. End of story I say bring on the winners circle.

[letswastemoney]

Private Zone has lost both Breeders' Cup tries. I don't trust him, no matter what his form looked like this year.

[Stillriledup]

Private Zone has lost both Breeders' Cup tries. I don't trust him, no matter what his form looked like this year.

According to some in the Runhappy thread, there's no need to worry about mysterious dropoffs in figures it's all due to 'pace pressure' and 'class'
It was the 'pressure' apparently that made PZ run an 81 Beyer in the 2013 BC, when he normally runs 105s and 110s.

[Spalding No!]

According to some in the Runhappy thread, there's no need to worry about mysterious dropoffs in figures it's all due to 'pace pressure' and 'class'
It was the 'pressure' apparently that made PZ run an 81 Beyer in the 2013 BC, when he normally runs 105s and 110s.
Seeing how he came right back to place in the Cigar Mile, it probably did have everything to do with pace pressure. In previous and subsequent races where the half was :44 or faster, Private Zone is winless.

And he wasn't normally running 105s and 110s at the time of the '13 BC. He was averaging about 101 in his previous 6 starts with BSF.

Also, from a class standpoint, note that none of the 4 horses from the Vosburgh (the race PV won prior to the BC) hit the board that day in the BC Sprint.

Go figure.

[Stillriledup]

Seeing how he came right back to place in the Cigar Mile, it probably did have everything to do with pace pressure. In previous and subsequent races where the half was :44 or faster, Private Zone is winless.

And he wasn't normally running 105s and 110s at the time of the '13 BC. He was averaging about 101 in his previous 6 starts with BSF.

Also, from a class standpoint, note that none of the 4 horses from the Vosburgh (the race PV won prior to the BC) hit the board that day in the BC Sprint.

Go figure.

Yep, just another coincidence I'm sure.

[Stillriledup]

Seeing how he came right back to place in the Cigar Mile, it probably did have everything to do with pace pressure. In previous and subsequent races where the half was :44 or faster, Private Zone is winless.

And he wasn't normally running 105s and 110s at the time of the '13 BC. He was averaging about 101 in his previous 6 starts with BSF.

Also, from a class standpoint, note that none of the 4 horses from the Vosburgh (the race PV won prior to the BC) hit the board that day in the BC Sprint.

Go figure.

His BC in 13 and 14 were sandwiched by his Vos and his Cigar, which in both years were almost identical performances, so just on that he was just as good a horse heading into both BCs.

I think putting PZ and Lost in the Fog aside for a minute, the question is really this. Are the prerace security and the prerace medication rules for the BC the same as any other race that's run.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95537/breeders-cup-enhances-security-testing

[castaway01]

I honestly think we'll get an upset here, and I honestly don't know which of the longshots will do it.

[andtheyreoff]

His BC in 13 and 14 were sandwiched by his Vos and his Cigar, which in both years were almost identical performances, so just on that he was just as good a horse heading into both BCs.

I think putting PZ and Lost in the Fog aside for a minute, the question is really this. Are the prerace security and the prerace medication rules for the BC the same as any other race that's run.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95537/breeders-cup-enhances-security-testing

You really are the best at totally missing the point.

As for the race itself: I got Stallwalkin Dude to upset. The race sets up for him.

[Valuist]

Appears as though a war may break out up front between three main players in Runhappy, Favorite Tale & Private Zone.
So will this thing meltdown?
Although it may wilt a little from the heat, I say no to a meltdown. IMO the deep closers just aren't good enough to get these guys. I will consider :10: Salutos Amigos for some minor slots though.

The rail belongs to Runhappy with his two main pace foes breaking from the far outside slots...no way they get out & get all the way over in front of him (although his gate antics are a concern, and a bad break may be fatal here). Even Masochistic has enough early lick to keep the outsiders from getting all the way over.
I'm looking to a runner who appears as though he'll get a beautiful inside stalking trip, and can take advantage of a pace that should yield a few casualties... :6: Ivan Fallunovalot.
He's got Borel up so he's almost a sure thing to sit on the rail, and I'm hoping he can follow Runhappy, and take a well timed shot at the speeds when they hit the stretch. It would be nice if Runhappy drifts out again and opens the door for Calvin and Ivan.
But is this guy even good enough to hang with this type? He's a wee smidge below the best on figures, but his finest can get him close, and the race dynamic may be all he needs to get into the exacta or better :eek:

This guy reminds me a little of one of my favorite sprinters, Bet On Sunshine who ran in this race about three times I think and may have gotten 3rd once.

Just another tough BrCup race...who ya' got??

I think you and I both liked Work All Week last year, and I have to agree that Ivan Fallinovalot may be the bomb to include on tickets. 11 for 18 on dirt. Doesn't have to have the lead but will be just off the leaders. Midwest based horses often overlooked. Probably should be closer to 15-1 than 30-1.

[Stillriledup]

You really are the best at totally missing the point.

As for the race itself: I got Stallwalkin Dude to upset. The race sets up for him.

It's called difference of opinion. I have my own, it works pretty well.

[Spalding No!]

His BC in 13 and 14 were sandwiched by his Vos and his Cigar, which in both years were almost identical performances, so just on that he was just as good a horse heading into both BCs.

I think putting PZ and Lost in the Fog aside for a minute, the question is really this. Are the prerace security and the prerace medication rules for the BC the same as any other race that's run.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95537/breeders-cup-enhances-security-testing
Now I see what you are getting at.

However, to me, if you're going to analyze the races in that way, you need to take the question you pose one level further.

Forget whether the prerace security and med rules are the same for the BC as any other race.

Now ask yourself: Are the prerace security and med rules the same for BC Friday races as they are for BC Saturday races?

Only this would explain how the O'Neill barn could send out Goldencents for his emphatic romp in the Dirt Mile and then watch Private Zone flounder after a half-mile in the Sprint in 2013.

The two day framework of the Breeders Cup World Championships just got a little bit more interesting...

[Stillriledup]

Now I see what you are getting at.

However, to me, if you're going to analyze the races in that way, you need to take the question you pose one level further.

Forget whether the prerace security and med rules are the same for the BC as any other race.

Now ask yourself: Are the prerace security and med rules the same for BC Friday races as they are for BC Saturday races?

Only this would explain how the O'Neill barn could send out Goldencents for his emphatic romp in the Dirt Mile and then watch Private Zone flounder after a half-mile in the Sprint in 2013.

The two day framework of the Breeders Cup World Championships just got a little bit more interesting...

Or, maybe the rules for both days are exactly the same but the different prerace rules (vs what theyre used to) affect different horses in different ways.

[cj]

Or, maybe the rules for both days are exactly the same but the different prerace rules (vs what theyre used to) affect different horses in different ways.

Also, maybe the moon was in a weird phase and there was a meteor shower one night and not the other.

[Hard2Like]

The sun came up this morning and its making me more than a little suspicious,that's for sure.

[Stillriledup]

The sun came up this morning and its making me more than a little suspicious,that's for sure.

If CJ only had a 'like' button. :D

[Valuist]

Ivan Fallinovalot reminds me a lot of Work All Week last year. I see he opened up at 12-1. The 30-1 morning line was a terrible line.

[cj]

Ivan Fallinovalot reminds me a lot of Work All Week last year. I see he opened up at 12-1. The 30-1 morning line was a terrible line.

The difference is Work All Week won a big race just before the BC. Ivan failed in his lone graded stakes, a G3 no less, and has beaten basically nothing at all in two starts since the layoff at Remington.

I think he has a chance, but the 12-1 is a bit too far IMO.

[PhantomOnTour]

Ivan beat Candip in his last start and that guy ran a mediocre race in the opener yesterday.
He needs a few breaks but should trip well and can get some.

[Tor Ekman]

take a shot on an upset, $5 W on each of :2: :6: :14:

[Tom]

Private Zone has lost both Breeders' Cup tries. I don't trust him, no matter what his form looked like this year.

Good call.

Runhappy is for real.

[davew]

Good call.

Runhappy is for real.

what a horse for a beginning trainer to have