View Full Version : Keeneland Track Bias
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:33 PM
Hello everyone,
Looking to create a thread to help eachother with 2015 fall meet bias notes.
Runhappy seems to have run on a day where only he went wire to wire.
Off charts, the rail was NOT the place to be.
Who agrees? Disagrees?
Oct 2nd is the date.
I also see that Dothraki Queen ran awesome on the rail that day, overcoming visible layers of slop against no flow. Using her as well in the filly juvenile because of that.
Thoughts for the meet on specific days?
We code race days (dirt or synthetic only) as follows:
Red: Speed much better than expected
Pink: Speed better than expected
White: Neutral
Light Blue: Speed did worse than expected
Blue: Speed did much worse than expected
For the fall meet, these are the days that received a color code:
KEE 10/02/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/03/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/04/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/11/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/23/2015 Pink
You won't find many tracks that play this anti-speed.
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:38 PM
We code race days (dirt or synthetic only) as follows:
Red: Speed much better than expected
Pink: Speed better than expected
White: Neutral
Light Blue: Speed did worse than expected
Blue: Speed did much worse than expected
For the fall meet, these are the days that received a color code:
KEE 10/02/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/03/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/04/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/11/2015 Lt Blue
KEE 10/23/2015 Pink
You won't find many tracks that play this anti-speed.
You're slowly winning over CJ (as an ulimited formulator user for 9 years)....
Keep it up and I'll be PM ing for a discount soon :)
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:40 PM
You won't find many tracks that play this anti-speed.
You're mouth to the racing god's ears.....
But watch, come race 11 (or whatever the classic is) track maintenance will make it a super speed biased track :bang: :bang: :bang:
You're slowly winning over CJ (as an ulimited formulator user for 9 years)....
Keep it up and I'll be PM ing for a discount soon :)
LOL, thanks.
These are strictly numerical and don't consider inside/outside, that data simply isn't available in a reliable format yet. I always suggest consulting the charts to see if you agree, but if white (which is about 3/4 of the race days), you are pretty safe in assuming there wan't a speed/closer bias.
Stillriledup
10-26-2015, 06:45 PM
[/B]
You're mouth to the racing god's ears.....
But watch, come race 11 (or whatever the classic is) track maintenance will make it a super speed biased track :bang: :bang: :bang:
One thing for sure is you'll know about the bias before you bet your tonsils on Tonalist.
no breathalyzer
10-26-2015, 06:50 PM
[/B]
You're mouth to the racing god's ears.....
But watch, come race 11 (or whatever the classic is) track maintenance will make it a super speed biased track :bang: :bang: :bang:
The tractor always seems to put in extra work days before these ''big'' days
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:52 PM
The tractor always seems to put in extra work days before these ''big'' days
and the water truck...but only on the inside paths...
Like right after race 7 at the spa on Travers day....
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:56 PM
One thing for sure is you'll know about the bias before you bet your tonsils on Tonalist.
In picks, I will be all in (in the P6, P4 and P3's) based upon early race bias thoughts.
Track could be a closer's haven for 10 races but you never know, they might harrow and pack down lane #4 from the 1/4 to 1/8 pole right after race 10. I put nothing past anyone.
For the record, looks like Tonalist A, Beholder and Keen Ice B's and Frosted/Smooth Roller C's in PICK 4's PICK 6's.
Might make a gametime decision to throw in HC as a C if the track is anti speed and toss Smooth Roller out.
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 06:57 PM
LOL, thanks.
These are strictly numerical and don't consider inside/outside, that data simply isn't available in a reliable format yet. I always suggest consulting the charts to see if you agree, but if white (which is about 3/4 of the race days), you are pretty safe in assuming there wan't a speed/closer bias.
No, I totally understand, it's too subjective. An overall idea is good and important though.
Stillriledup
10-26-2015, 06:58 PM
and the water truck...but only on the inside paths...
Like right after race 7 at the spa on Travers day....
Which is better off for racing, the BC and Keeneland.
1) AP and B battle tooth and nail to the wire in an epic memorable BC finish
OR
2) the race completely collapses and two non contenders on the odds board sweep by and finish 1-2.
Or
3) 'racing' the BC and Kee don't really care because there's no added benefit for the sport if the brand name horses put on a show for the ages.
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 07:01 PM
Which is better off for racing, the BC and Keeneland.
1) AP and B battle tooth and nail to the wire in an epic memorable BC finish
OR
2) the race completely collapses and two non contenders on the odds board sweep by and finish 1-2.
Or
3) 'racing' the BC and Kee don't really care because there's no added benefit for the sport if the brand name horses put on a show for the ages.
Obviously A then A then A and then A again.
no breathalyzer
10-26-2015, 07:46 PM
and the water truck...but only on the inside paths...
Like right after race 7 at the spa on Travers day....
:) YUP
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 07:50 PM
:) YUP
But yeah I know, I'm psycho for repeating WHAT OTHERS (WHO WERE ON TRACK) said about the watering and tractor situation on Travers day...
:bang: :bang: :bang:
How you like Tonalist on the rail?
EMD4ME
10-26-2015, 08:39 PM
How you like Tonalist on the rail?
Not in love with it to be frank. He broke from the rail in the Westchester and did not break well.
However his 2nd career start was from the rail going 9F at GP (2 turns) and he didn't break bad.
The bad thing is he has been a slower breaker in his 4 year old year.
Regarless, barring a terrible break, he should beat HC, Hard Aces and Gleneagles into the clubhouse turn.
If they decide to throw the Blinkers on, which last I checked is being discussed, he might even surprise a few and sit close, especially if AP is jogging to the lead in the 1st quarter.
3) 'racing' the BC and Kee don't really care because there's no added benefit for the sport if the brand name horses put on a show for the ages.
The BC gets the $$$.
That is ALL they care about.
If you are on track, drinking that $25 beer and eating that $30 hot dog, think about what really matters. :lol:
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