How to handle a losing streak

[dav4463]

I am 0 for my last 17 bets. How do I handle this ? My solution is to download tomorrow's pp's and just keep going knowing (hoping) that the losing streak ends. How do you other guys out there handle those inevitable losing streaks ?

[Dick Schmidt]

Dav,

Keep records. When you lose 17, or 30 or whatever in a row, look back and see how many times this has happened in the past. Look and see how it worked out for the month. Streaks are a phenomena that happen in any gambling activity, both win and loss. If you can look back at all the bets you've made in the past two years and see that time after time the streaks ended and things worked out, then they won't much bother you.

Of course, I'm assuming you're a winning player. If not, there is no salvation for you. Quit playing until you are showing a consistent paper profit. Without records, we have no course to steer by.

Dick


"No wife can endure a gambling husband, unless he is a steady winner." ~Thomas Robert Dewar

[cj]

Hey,

That quote looks familiar!

;)

Craig

Who notices when other people use the same quote he does.

[Zman179]

0 for 17?!?!? HAHAHAHAHA, that's not a losing streak, that's just a hiccup. I've gone periods of two weeks and more without cashing a single ticket.

Best thing to do is to take a break for 4 or 5 days and come back. Take care of some errands that you've been putting off, go to the beach for a day, take your "significant other" out an extra time or two, anything other than ponies. And when you do come back, sharply cut back your betting amounts (about half of what you usually play) until you feel yourself warming up and your confidence returns. Or do what I do and go to the racetrack and stick to the live races and forget the simulcasts. That tends to break me out of a streak.

Good luck on breaking out. And when you get back on a winning streak, put aside a deuce for me;)

[eclecticapper]

One thing I recommend is reviewing charts and/or replays for each and every race you bet, rather than just adding up wins and losses. Was the race run the way you expected? If your 6-1 shot gets beat by the 6-5 favorite, I don't think that's cause for concern. Anyone who uses a value approach will likely find periods where the overlays just plain get beat by underlays. If your selections stay in the rear half of the field all the way around the track on a regular basis, then you have a problem.

[headhawg]

dav4463,

Been there.

I posted a similar topic a couple of months ago so do a search. There was some good advice in that thread as there is in this one.

I would be concerned if you are a "chalk" player. Whatever you are doing needs to be changed, or you should take a break, and reevaluate your method(s). If you are looking for longer priced horses then 0/17 is no big deal!

The advice given to me was that if I am confident in what I'm doing then I should just play through it and not play "scared". I use to back off when I got cold, and then, of course, the inevitable would happen -- the price horses that I would have played would win and I wouldn't have a nickel on them. NO MORE! I keep playing and you know what? That is working for me.

So.. be smart, make good bets, and I'll see you in the short line.

HH

[Valuist]

Get more selective and make no more than 3 wagers your next day of betting horses. Go to a track or OTB, place your bets and leave without watching the races. Do NOT bet online. The temptation to make too many plays is too easy online. Don't look at the results until the day of racing is over. I find the temptation to "get out" for a day is pretty strong but I never try to get back a previous days losses. Hope this helps.

Unless you're playing a lot of favorites, I don't think 17 in a row is that uncommon. Just check newspaper handicappers. There's plenty of times they'll go winless 2 days in a row.

[levinmpa]

I remember walking into a racebook one day and asking the "regulars" how they were doing. One guy says I've lost 26 straight photos. My reply to him was, "and you're still playing?"

I think that different people handle negative streaks differently. If it were me, whether it was a bad streak of losing photos or 20 consecutive losing races, I would take a step back. Take a day or 2 off and do something that will take your mind off the situation. Perhaps you're someone that has handled losing streaks well and can get through it doing your normal routine. What you can't do is "reach" for winners, making wagers that you normally wouldn't make, just to end the streak. This is a path that has ruined many a good horseplayer. Be very careful. You know yourself better than anyone. Remember that things tend to even out over the long term.

Good luck.

[timtam]

I've been reading how some guys lose 17-25 bets in a row. How do you handle this by way of wagering. If you flat bet even $10 to win your down $270 and would have to hit quite a few just to get that back. I always thought the only way to wager is the old due column wagering. One hit and your in the black but I've been told countless times on this board that due column is suicidal. So when your in a long losing streak how do you recoup your losses and play again. A walk on the beach is fine but your still down $270 when you come back. I really have no answer but its a question that has been bothering me for the 20+ years I've been playing.

[Valuist]

You always hear how the "money due" works in theory but it doesn't take human psychology into account. Imagine doubling up after every loss, or even going 1.5 times higher after every loss. You never know when the streak ends; the amount risked can get to be staggering. Its not worth it.

Exotic wagering is a better way to get out of a slump. You can risk small amounts and a nice hit will get you out.

[pmd62ndst]

Since Tuesday, been on a 1-38 slump. Made up for a spectacular weekend where I went 16-83 (19.3%).

It all just seems to work out in the end. I just try to grind through the rough times because I think about all the lucky streaks that I could be missing.

PMD

[dav4463]

Thanks for all the advice. I do keep records, but this particular losing streak really got me. Last night, I wasn't even close ! Horses that looked great to me didn't even hit the board or even run a decent race ! Three or four days in a row like that starts to shake the confidence ! I used to change my handicapping style every time I had a losing day...at least I don't do that anymore !

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Go to a track or OTB, place your bets and leave without watching the races.

:confused: :confused:

[JackS]

I believe it was Cramer or Meadows who ran probilities on 2/1 favorites. 18 losses in a row are an eventual probility. This is of course over hundreds of runs using a computer to prove out this theory. 17 losses in a row with horses at various odds averaging something above 2/1 sounds like this may be a very normal, although rare occurance.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Since you did not say how you cap or bet, I looked at some of your old posts.
Within the last week, what track, race, and # of horse did you bet? what did you like in the horse's recoed?
Maybe you throw oujt horses based on too few factors.
Try writing unser the purse what price you think the horse is a contender, and how fast it has to run the first 6f to win the current race. Then you can see if the record, competition, and post position gives it a real shot.
If that does not work, check BM for a very small field and bet every horse in the race. LOL.

[Valuist]

Pylons-

I don't understand why you used the puzzled emoticon. You bet and get out. That way you cannot chase.

[Dick Schmidt]

CJ,

Of course that quote looks familiar. It's a quote. I don't make this stuff up, I steal it!

Dick

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." -Robert Heinlein

[The Skeptic]

I'll re-affirm Dick Schmidts comment and the other comment as a "hiccup".

At the risk of sounding arrogant which is not the intent...by the shear fact you asked the question confirms you're not a winning player. Sorry as you never said you were in the first place. If you can admit this to yourself we can build upon that.

Why do I say this is proof? You need to understand loosing streaks. I'm not going to get my probability software out or my math text book but lets use simple logic here.

Public Handicappers win approx 30%. How often do you see them go 0 for 10. Happens all the time. I've seen them go 2 or 3 days yet they still get 30%.

Flip a Coin. 50% How often will you say get 4 or 5 heads in row if you flip it 100 times. It'll happen but not unusual. Wouldn't surprise me if you had 6,7 or 8 or 8 in a row. You'll still end up at 50% over time.

Pro Football against the line...I believe what 65% (60%) if you're good...70% if awesome...(I could be wrong as I don't bet football). How often will a guy loose 4, 5 or 6 in a row? It'll happen but 65% should be around the number in the end?

The point to these numbers...your 17 races is not unreasonable at all when you're playing a game that max is in the 30 some percent range. It's a mild hiccup.

I don't want to brag on what my loosing streak is but lets put it into context. My winning selections hit about 17% of the time. I should expect 20,30,40,50,60+ loosing streaks...with the 20-30 being the norm when it in fact is a streak at all.

[Valuist]

FWIW, sports bettors shoot for 55-60%. Over the long haul NOBODY will top 60% over 1000 plays. Yeah guys may go 40-20 or 35-15 but over 1000 plays they won't win over 600.

[shots]

Track your picks that lost and give them an extra close look the next time out. You might just bet him a race early, and the next one is the that gets the cash. You have to learn something from each lost. Make a short check list of factors for you picks. You might find a weak spot that is having a dominating effect on your handicapping or selections

[timtam]

I keep hearing about guys having huge losing streaks and then come out and win X% in the next few days. But how did you wager to continue betting with a depleted bankroll. I'm sure somebody either decreases or increases their wagers while they are having a long losing streak. Did you stop betting and then miracuously have a winning streak and find money to start betting again. How did you bet to maintain capital while your going thru these 17 and 18 race losing streaks? Does someone really keep betting thru these streaks or are these paper wagers like some of the books I've read??

[penguinfan]

Tinman, I can add this, I am currently in the midst of an odds defying streak and yes I am continuing to bet, I have had to reduce my base wager a couple times and am now to the point where if I reduce it again it will take me forever to get back in the black for the year. That brings up an interesting point as I will have to catch a nice streak to make up for the losses considering I am now wagering less per bet. Next step will be to stop and reload, that will be the only choice as a smaller wager than I am at now will just be useless. I started with a bankroll and tried to manage it the best I could, but the best management won't help much when you just are not cashing tickets. I am not saying I am personally broke, just that I may have to reload my wagering bankroll, I don't think anyone can play out of their everyday checking account and expect to do well over the long haul. I will take a break before reloading though.

Penguinfan

[headhawg]

Hmmm... I think that if anyone is in danger of tapping out his/her starting bankroll was too small (% of bankroll bet per race too aggressive), and you might need to rethink your money management strategy.

[JimG]

Originally posted by penguinfan
Tinman, I can add this, I am currently in the midst of an odds defying streak and yes I am continuing to bet, I have had to reduce my base wager a couple times and am now to the point where if I reduce it again it will take me forever to get back in the black for the year. That brings up an interesting point as I will have to catch a nice streak to make up for the losses considering I am now wagering less per bet. Next step will be to stop and reload, that will be the only choice as a smaller wager than I am at now will just be useless. I started with a bankroll and tried to manage it the best I could, but the best management won't help much when you just are not cashing tickets. I am not saying I am personally broke, just that I may have to reload my wagering bankroll, I don't think anyone can play out of their everyday checking account and expect to do well over the long haul. I will take a break before reloading though.

Penguinfan

Penguinfan,

Sorry to hear about your run of losers. As they say, "Been there, done that, got the T-shirt".

My advice is to really study the wagers you have made over this period and take a break from playing. Are you playing differently than when things were going well? Different tracks? Different types of wagers? What types of races are you "in the ballpark"?

I think if you take the time to honestly study your losing streak, it will serve you well. If the problem is too many losers in a row, then your money management needs review. Likely you are playing too much per playable race or the streak would not concern you.

Whatever the case, I am sure it will turn around and wish you much success.

Jim

[JackS]

Penguinfan- If your confident in your methods, things will eventually change for the better. Depending on your type of play, i.e- high risk, high profit exotics, losing streaks are to be expected. The main thing to do now is to get your confidence back by playing less money and hopefull cashing small tickets. Bet size can increase at a later time. Don't chase lost money, this is what keeps Vegas in business. Small action bets are now preffered over bets for big profits.

[timtam]

Penguinfan,

I appreciate your honesty and the fact that you did reduce your wager size while you're in this hopefully soon defunct losing streak. That was what I was hoping to hear from some of these other guys who are mired in a slump. Do they drop down so low that it will take a long time just to get back into the black? Do they change from maybe a 4 horse box to a 3 horse box or maybe backing a key with 3 horses as opposed to 4?? I wish the guys who had the 17 or 18+ losing streaks would tell us exactly what they do to get back into the "game'' and into the black. I now know you have reduced your bets and once again hope your losing streak ends now. Thanks again..

[Jeff P]

timtam posted:
But how did you wager to continue betting with a depleted bankroll. I'm sure somebody either decreases or increases their wagers while they are having a long losing streak.

I use a percentage of bankroll approach, generally betting agout 2 percent of bankroll to win on each play. I sometimes recalculate the bankroll size several times during the day- I try to keep it rounded to the nearest $100.00 increment. Doing this results in two things: 1. During a losing streak your bankroll will shrink, and during extended streaks, it shrinks to the point where it becomes (to the mind's eye anyway) almost trivial when compared to its last high point. When this happens, don't get discouraged. Because 2. During a winning streak it will grow, and during a really hot streak, it can grow to the point where the size of it becomes (again to the mind's eye) gargantuan when compared to its last low point. If you can somehow remove the human element of worrying about it, and if you really are making profitable plays, the streak will eventually end and you will begin regressing back to your own mean.

[pmd62ndst]

I think this thread has jinxed me. I am now currently going through one of my worst dry spells ever. Yesterday, I went 0 for 30 which puts the 4 day total at 1-68.

My wager strategy calls for me to wager from 5-1 to 18-1 odds. Looking back, chalk has had a hell of week with an unusually high hit rate on the races I wager on.

My bankroll is incredible low right now along with my attitude. Maybe it's time to take a break.

PMD

[The Skeptic]

I learned long ago when using a method that produces a low percentage of winners NOT to use a percentage of bankroll. It's the kiss of death. I will say each wager is roughly 1%...but generally it's never adjusted. "Kelly" will not work if you loose alot of races in a row. "Kelly" has promise if you don't endure long loosing streaks. A quick example...how will you capitilize when you suddenly get hot and you're wager is still just 1% of your now depleted bankroll? This is why "Kelly" has no promise when wagering something that wins 15%.

Someone asked how do you get you money back after loosing 20 or 40 races? It could be just be a few days...as my play produces alot of plays. Secondly and to the point....let's say I just lost 50 races in a row and I was hypothetically wagering $2 a race. I just lost $100 right? 2 $50 horses suddenly makes me even. It's really that simple.

Back to my example in the first paragraph: If I just endured a 50 race loosing streak and assuming $2 was my original 1% of bankroll.....I just lost $100. Now my bank roll is down to $100. If I believed in the power of "Kelly" my wagers would now be adjusted down to $1 each. So now I hit my 2 $50 horses and instead of getting my $100 back I only get $50. It's going to be that much more difficult to get into the "profitable zone" again. This again is why "Kelly" is so dangerous. "Kelly" would be ideal for Sports Wagering where succesful hits are far more frequent and long loosing streak less prevalent.

Honestly here: When I finally became a winner was when I learned how to loose. How did I learn how to loose? I learned by understanding the mathematics behind potential loosing streaks. They're par for the territory.

Note: I'm using "Kelly" and "Percentage of Bankroll" interchangeably.

PMD - if you want to email me privately I have a suggestion?

[penguinfan]

Thanks for the well wishes guys.
JimG I actually only play 2 tracks on a daily basis and it has really been a case of near misses coupled with some bad plays, but who among us has not bet on a horse that limped home last. I have had some unbelievable beats at the wire and I could direct you to replay via TSNBET of a race I still think I won with a 12-1 horse that somehow got second, but to answer your question I am still in most of the races I bet, running 2nd and 3rd alot an I know this stuff evens out eventually, but it is very disheartening when you are mired in the middle of it.

Tinman- I really only play win tickets with the occasional all/1 to back it up and kinda use a % of bankroll but I maybe wait too long to adjust it down and I know I wait too long to adjust it upwards so I wasn't taking full advantage of the times when I was ahead and now playing catch up is difficult with smaller than normal wagers so I will have to rethink my money management strategy for sure, but it did serve me well the previous 2 years as I did make a profit in 02 and 03, nothing you could live on but it payed for my hobbby and a little drinking money, this year is another story so far, but I got 6 months to make good on this, we'll see.

Penguinfan

[trying2win]

Very interesting thread!

First of all, some of the PA members have mentioned they have been on a "loosing" streak, or they've been discussing about when they "loose" at the races. Spelling tip...It should be losing streak, or lose at the races.

It's refreshing to see some members being candid about some of the losing streaks they go through. That's a change from all the bragging about some of the big-priced winners, that we have a tendency to talk about at this forum....not that there's anything wrong with that. I guess it's human nature. We like to talk about our winners, but not about our losers.

There's the emotional component to losing streaks as well. These losing skids sure can be frustrating, aggravating, anxiety-producing, and confidence-sapping to name a few. Been there, done that as well.

I'm not doing that great at the througbred races either this week. Been doing more researching at my past results and doing a bit of fine tuning.

I like to lower my bets during a losing streak. Sometimes I just make some small place bets for a few days. This is to increase the chance to cash a few tickets, in order to help get my confidence back. I'm not the kind to take a week off from betting the races. Certain days of the week are quiet for betting, like Monday or Tuesday. On those days I may have very few if any bets, whether I'm in a winning or losing streak.


T2W

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Pylons-

I don't understand why you used the puzzled emoticon. You bet and get out. That way you cannot chase.

How can anybody suggest betting without having a reasonable idea of price? Not knowing the most important thing needed to make a wager is nonsense. A chaser shouldn't be betting the races under any circumstances.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
How can anybody suggest betting without having a reasonable idea of price? Not knowing the most important thing needed to make a wager is nonsense. A chaser shouldn't be betting the races under any circumstances. The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

:rolleyes:

Yes, I could handicap Smarty Jones would be 1-5 in the Belmont.

Find me a 12 horse field at Churchill with 3 ? droppers, 3 ? layoff horses, and 3 ? contending shippers and you are going to tell me how the betting will go? You are a moron!

How many times have most people said....."I can't believe he was that price" or "I can't believe they made that horse the odds-on favorite".

Not one winning player I know (and I know many) that makes a very good living solely from betting races would ever bet before they knew the prices except in a rare rare occurrence, (we call it betting blind) usually with a BM.

I can't tell you how many times I've looked at a race I thought I was going to pass because I liked 3 horses pretty much equal all thinking they would be between 5-2 and 4-1 and then 2 minutes to post they are 6-5, 2-1, and 8-1. Well needless to say, I went from passing to making the largest bet feasible into the race.

[Jeff P]

learned long ago when using a method that produces a low percentage of winners NOT to use a percentage of bankroll. It's the kiss of death. I will say each wager is roughly 1%...but generally it's never adjusted.

Different strokes for different folks...

I tend to look at things from a long term perspective. Over the course of an extended period I have found that a percentage of bankroll approach works best for me. I never know in advance whether I'll be hot or whether I'll be cold in the short term. For me, consistently betting a percentage of bankroll over an extended period is my chance to put the law of large numbers to work for me and get into the long run. Theoretically, every bet I make has some positive expectation. The percentage of bankroll that I use in relation to my hit rate and average win mutuel along with recalculating bankroll size up or down each time a new $100.00 increment is reached kind of insures that I have very little real chance of ever tapping out. So it kind of mechanically forces me into playing for the long run. Over any extended time period (generally measured in months) I will have several highs and lows. But, at the end of an extended time period (at least it's worked this way for me over the past several years) the ending bankroll is just about always several times higher than the starting bankroll.

I also find it interesting that many of us on this board are posting in this thread this week. It's been a losing week for me as well. A lot of what I bet might be described as speed at long odds. There hasn't been much of that in the winner's circle in the past week. It's as if my horses all across the country are hitting the wall at the sixteenth pole this week.

The one thing I do know about losing streaks from experience is that they DO end.

[freeneasy]

your betting to many longshots. i dont subscribe to limiting myself to certain types of long odd or short odds horses. when i see a winner then all i want to know is whats the best way to amke money with this horse. win place ex. tri pk3,4 doesnt matter. is there money to be made with this horse. anything else other then a win bet then the risk escalates. get a good horse. i dont care if he's 10-1 or 1-10. get your winner first. not some overlay horse that you give 3-1 on and hes on the board at 15-1 tho they certainly have their place, if your line is right. get your winner first. if hes not your top handicap pick then hes not your winner. sorry. then if you make that top pick 3-1 and hes 6-1 all the better. bet it. and what if hes 2-1. what? your going to go to your next highest pick?
well how often does your top pk win? how often does your top 2 win? top 3? top 4? top 5?
how often does your top pk win in a field of 5? in a field of 6. field of 7,8,9,10 and on up
how often does your top 2 win in a field of 5,6,7 and on up?
how often does your top 3 win in a field of 5,6,7 and on up?
how well does your top pick do in 2yo races only?
2yo races for fillies only?
2yo races for fillies at 5f?
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5?
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 6? ect

how well does your top 2 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5? field of 6? ect

how well does your top 3 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5f in a field of 5? field of 6? ect

how well does your top pk do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

how well does your top 2 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

how well does your top 3 picks do in
2yo races for fillies at 5 1/2f in a field of 5? 6? ect

that horse you gave a line of 3-1 to? could be the reason you didnt bet him is because he should have been 4-5 on your board and you didnt realize it and now hes sitting on the board at an overlaid price of 2-1 but to you he looks like an underlay when he crosses the wire first, so you put your money elsewhere without realizing he was your bet. result 68 straight losers cause you probably passed over a few legitimate winners during the whole of it all. but iam a believer that once you catch hold of the right nitch? you aint never going to see no 68 straight losers. suddenly i can hear an old fight song in the background, you know, the one you never forgot, here it comes, ahh now i hear it, cheer, cheer for old notre:D

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The price can often be predicted well enough in advance, depending on the type of horse you normally key on. If we can handicap what the horses are likely to do, why can't we handicap what the public is likely to do? (I ask because this is not the first time you've scoffed at such an idea.) In truth, predicting how the public will bet is much easier than predicting how the horses will run...

Just a little interesting story concerning this nonsense from about 3 or 4 weeks ago. My friend calls me about 30 minutes to first post at a track that he keys on. He is very sharp and also thinks he can grasp at what the "public" will bet on. He gets a little lazy sometimes and will pre-pass races he thinks will have no value. I have told him a million times that you never really know. He and I both have the race narrowed down to 6 contenders, in effect, what appears to be ABCDEF. He decided that he couldn't make any money in the race and was going to skip the race and go get a rack of ribs instead of a burger or tacos and be back in time for it. Well needless to say, the "public" made a mistake and overbet (what I thought would be B) a horse down to 4-5 and somehow skipped over D, who was a non-win type but ultra consistent while usually hitting the number somewhere, who was hovering at 29-1 with 2 minutes to post. I aimed for the center of the green with my first bets, keying him to be somewhere in the number with the other 5 contenders. My extra presses were keying him underneath with the 4-5 shot on top only(somewhat respecting the action on this ? horse (win or out type)) and then keying him 1st and 2nd with the other 4 contenders throwing out the 4-5 shot completely. He ended up running 2nd with the 4-5 shot and the second favorite nowhere while being surrounded by the longer price contenders. What looked initially like a pass, turned out to be just over a 30K win. About ten minutes after the race was official, the phone rings and my friend, in a sick voice, said "can you believe what that paid?". My reply was that it would have paid a lot more if I had gone to get ribs too!

After a few minutes of whining and crying, he conservatively estimated that the rack of ribs cost him about 12K-15K. He has done this before and he'll do it again. He just doesn't learn.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Just a little interesting story concerning this nonsense from about 3 or 4 weeks ago. My friend calls me about 30 minutes to first post at a track that he keys on. He is very sharp and also thinks he can grasp at what the "public" will bet on. He gets a little lazy sometimes and will pre-pass races he thinks will have no value. I have told him a million times that you never really know. He and I both have the race narrowed down to 6 contenders, in effect, what appears to be ABCDEF. He decided that he couldn't make any money in the race and was going to skip the race and go get a rack of ribs instead of a burger or tacos and be back in time for it. Well needless to say, the "public" made a mistake and overbet (what I thought would be B) a horse down to 4-5 and somehow skipped over D, who was a non-win type but ultra consistent while usually hitting the number somewhere, who was hovering at 29-1 with 2 minutes to post. I aimed for the center of the green with my first bets, keying him to be somewhere in the number with the other 5 contenders. My extra presses were keying him underneath with the 4-5 shot on top only(somewhat respecting the action on this ? horse (win or out type)) and then keying him 1st and 2nd with the other 4 contenders throwing out the 4-5 shot completely. He ended up running 2nd with the 4-5 shot and the second favorite nowhere while being surrounded by the longer price contenders. What looked initially like a pass, turned out to be just over a 30K win. About ten minutes after the race was official, the phone rings and my friend, in a sick voice, said "can you believe what that paid?". My reply was that it would have paid a lot more if I had gone to get ribs too!

After a few minutes of whining and crying, he conservatively estimated that the rack of ribs cost him about 12K-15K. He has done this before and he'll do it again. He just doesn't learn. Your story illustrates that you may miss some opportunities if you try to predict the odds in advance. True enough, but not really relevant. I also said it "depends on what type of horse you tend to key on". It can work for some people well enough to make a decent profit is my point. Will you be right about every race? Of course not. But it is certainly possible to be right often enough to still make money with the right kind of plays (generally "spot play" type situations).

And if you want to get sophisticated about it, you can. I've been saving real-time tote board pool information for years -- you can not only predict what the likely odds are going to be, but you can predict very accurate probability distributions of the odds and be able to know just how likely it is for any specific given odds to occur (based on the usual handicapping information we know about the horse along with the morning line, etc). Once you know that, you can allocate your bets accordingly just like you would allocate an investment in the stock market. If you invest in a company, do you know exactly what the rate of return is going to be? No? I guess it is impossible to make money in the stock market because you have to make an educated guess on the price, huh? It also shouldn't be lost on you that even if you are watching the tote board, the prices can and will change after you bet, even if you bet 5 seconds before the cut-off. So you STILL have to guess the price, albeit with a smaller likelihood of a gross error. So even in that case, if I think the price is going to go up or down after the late money comes in, I'll adjust accordingly. The basic process is essentially unchanged if you bet at 1 minute to post or 6 hours to post. Only the time frame has changed, which increases the possibility of larger errors. But as long as you know that, then you can account for it.

The benefit of betting this way is, of course, that you can make all your bets in 10 minutes and be done for the day. You'll miss some opportunities, yes, but maybe having all that free time available is worth something to some people, eh? Maybe you could be doing something even more profitable (personally or financially) with that time?

You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

[dav4463]

I understand losing streaks and I ....."was"... a winning player. That was last year ! This year has not been profitable. It's not just the losing streak of 0 for 18, it is more the way some of them went. Either totally out of the race with no chance, or steward's inquiry, jockey objection, etc. that looks like a no-brainer on the replay......"NEVER going my way !!!! " At least it feels like that when you are losing. But, on the bright side, that 0 for 68 makes my streak seem like nothing !

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
The benefit of betting this way is, of course, that you can make all your bets in 10 minutes and be done for the day. You'll miss some opportunities, yes, but maybe having all that free time available is worth something to some people, eh? Maybe you could be doing something even more profitable (personally or financially) with that time?


You have a point. You usually get out of something what you put into something. Since I have switched in the last three years to making betting my strength instead of handicapping, I would love to cut the time I waste betting from 100 hours a week to 1 hour. One problem though, I can't live on the $5000 a year that work load would figure to return to me.

Originally posted by GameTheory
You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

You are right again. I apologize for thinking that it is a must to take into account the odds of horses before you make your wager. I was wrong. I was sure it was a big piece of the puzzle when trying to extract money from races, but after thinking about it again, I am the moron for not realizing that odds don't mean anything, the public never makes mistakes, and I am the only one here that can't project accurate closing odds for each horse.

I am once again very sorry about my mistake.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory

You seem to think that anyone that disagrees with you or doesn't act just as your "winning friends" do is a moron. Which tells me that you are... well, a moron. Why do so many people seem to think their way is the only way? It's just absurd.

Most all of my "winning friends", were once my "losing friends" until I taught them how to attack races with my wagering methods. Don't worry, I was called much worse than moron by them when I was explaining how to extract money from their opinions.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
You have a point. You usually get out of something what you put into something. Since I have switched in the last three years to making betting my strength instead of handicapping, I would love to cut the time I waste betting from 100 hours a week to 1 hour. One problem though, I can't live on the $5000 a year that work load would figure to return to me.I'm talking about betting too, or at least handicapping the public as well as the horses, which I see as part of the process. Maybe in another 3 years you'll be doing the same. I agree with you about emphasizing the importance of wagering technique. But this is wagering technique I'm talking about. And I'm certainly not saying anyone must or should do this. Only that some people *CAN* and still make money. There are lots of people that would be quite glad to make an extra $5000 a year without spending much time to do it (that assumes they've got some quick automated way to handicap as well) and still have all day to do their normal job or whatever.


You are right again. I apologize for thinking that it is a must to take into account the odds of horses before you make your wager. I was wrong. I was sure it was a big piece of the puzzle when trying to extract money from races, but after thinking about it again, I am the moron for not realizing that odds don't mean anything, the public never makes mistakes, and I am the only one here that can't project accurate closing odds for each horse.

I am once again very sorry about my mistake. Please find me the part when I said you don't account for the odds of the horse. Please find me the part where I said the odds don't mean anything. Please find me the part where I said the public never makes mistakes. We live off their mistakes. I'm saying that many of their mistakes are predictable, and you can often predict the very meaningful odds in advance close enough to know if something is going to be a decent overlay or not. Of course you account for the odds of the horse -- that's what we're talking about. You can use an estimate that is made at 1 minute to post (still only an estimate), or you can use an estimate that is made sometime before that.

If we had a contest where we took a hundred races and you picked a horse in each race to win, and I picked a horse in each race to be the betting favorite, who do you think would be right more often? (Assume you can look at the tote board when making your selections, and I can't.) Is it easier to predict who the favorite will be, or who the winner will be? I would say picking the favorite is much much easier.

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Most all of my "winning friends", were once my "losing friends" until I taught them how to attack races with my wagering methods. Don't worry, I was called much worse than moron by them when I was explaining how to extract money from their opinions. I'm not worried, and if you offered some useful method instead of spending your time calling people names and acting superior then you wouldn't get called moron or anything worse.

[ponyplayer]

Good thread. Now let me start off by saying I am a recreational player, I don't do this for a living, I just love the game.

I think we all have been playing long enough to know that losing streaks are just that, a streak. Winning streaks are streaks too. We just have to have the mental tenacity (and the bank roll) to weather out the losing streak.

When I get cold, I take a step back, maybe read a new handicapping book, read all these long posts on player forums, and try to regain my confidence with spot wagers...eventually you get on a winning streak again and we're all smiles.

For me it's a game, I do it for the enjoyment, If I win, that's gravey. Some people spend a lot of money on bass boats, or other such extra-curricular activities, I play the ponies....same-same for me. ;)

[Exactaman]

It has been nine weeks now of almost unbroken losing. Was feeling kind of bad about it today, and was talking about it with my 9 year old daughter. She assured me that it's impossible to lose EVERY time.

[freeneasy]

just goes to show that, from the mouth of babes comes the truth made so completely and understandably simple even if you cant understand it, who can denie it. "hey dad, you cant lose every time" kids got faith. :D

[Valuist]

Pylons-

Any time you bet a Pic 3 you are betting the last 2 legs blind, as well as the L3 legs of a Pic 4. I'll look for fuller fields and races where I am not at a disadvantage to the folks on the backstetch (too many first timers and or layoff horses). The two biggest scores of my life came from "betting blind".

[pmd62ndst]

To cheer me up, someone gave me an article from a recent Sports Illustrated where they talk about Derek Jeter's recent slump.

Here's a great comparison:

Derek Jeter: 0-32 slump, career batting: .314
PMD62ndst: 1-68 slump, career win bets: .143

You always have to put things in perspectice.

PMD

[BillW]

Originally posted by pmd62ndst
To cheer me up, someone gave me an article from a recent Sports Illustrated where they talk about Derek Jeter's recent slump.

Here's a great comparison:

Derek Jeter: 0-32 slump, career batting: .314
PMD62ndst: 1-68 slump, career win bets: .143

You always have to put things in perspectice.

PMD

What's about ROI? :eek: :D

[JackS]

I't has to be remembered that at times perfectly handicapped races can result in losses that should'nt have occured. I more often than not attempt to beat the favorite even though I realize that the favorite is the legitimate horse to win. I probably won't change from this stratagy but modifications to the tickets one buys can. An example in the last race yesterday at Calder, a short field with the 9 as odds on. To my mind, there was only one possible horse who could possibly upset him and that was the 5 returning from a layoff. The second favorite in this race was the 1 horse and an easy toss due to the very slow adjusted final time. The 2 horse was an obvious "hit the board" type, but not apt to beat the 9. the two remaining horses (8,10) could only be considered in relationship to the 2nd favorite (1). My bet- two trifecta bets 5/9/2,8,10 and 5/9/2,10. The result was 9/2/5/10. And the point here is that since the superfecta was available, a bite of the bullet with the 9 on top of 2,5/2,5/8,10 resulted in a $400+ payoff. I didn't make a dime.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
Pylons-

Any time you bet a Pic 3 you are betting the last 2 legs blind, as well as the L3 legs of a Pic 4. I'll look for fuller fields and races where I am not at a disadvantage to the folks on the backstetch (too many first timers and or layoff horses). The two biggest scores of my life came from "betting blind".

Another ridiculous reply! :eek:

Everybody is on a level playing field in regards to betting blind when betting P-3 and P-4 wagers. It has no relation to the fact that a person who makes bet early without knowing the price is at a complete disadvantage to the player who has all that information.

Try betting some superfectas throwing out the 2 or 3 chalks and you'll probably have some scores similar to the biggest of your life. It's pretty funny trying to compare P-4 scores to individual race scores when you have no idea how to bet individual races.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by GameTheory
I'm talking about betting too, or at least handicapping the public as well as the horses, which I see as part of the process.

Why would I waste my time handicapping what the public is going to do when at 2 MTP, I can see what they have done?

I bet 40-60 races a day and spend no more than 5-10 minutes handicapping. Why would I want to figure out what the odds "might" be?

Originally posted by GameTheory
Maybe in another 3 years you'll be doing the same.

I don't want to regress back to the stone ages for myself.

Originally posted by GameTheory
If we had a contest where we took a hundred races and you picked a horse in each race to win, and I picked a horse in each race to be the betting favorite, who do you think would be right more often? (Assume you can look at the tote board when making your selections, and I can't.) Is it easier to predict who the favorite will be, or who the winner will be? I would say picking the favorite is much much easier.

Are you now saying you can only predict the favorite easily? Can you predict which medium priced horse will be a double overlay? Can you predict which medium priced horse will be a double underlay? Can you tell me which first-timer, layoff horse, or big dropper will be heavily bet or cold on the board? Are you kidding me? I print on average about 15-18 forms/programs a day during the summer (TB's, Harness, and QH's). The one thing I have learned with 100% certainty is that you will be surprised how the betting goes in many races.

I equate betting without knowing the prices to playing blackjack without taking into consideration the dealer's up card. I think that is a fair analysis. I want to bet more when I have a advantage (overlay=doubling-down) and I want to bet less (or nothing) when I have a disadvantage (underlay=surrender/bad-count).

Try betting 6 to 7 figures for multiple years with your "I don't need to see the odds, I can predict the odds" nonsense and when it works, you can change your name to "Proven Theory".

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Where did thelyingthief's post go? He had some excellent observations.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Exactaman
It has been nine weeks now of almost unbroken losing. Was feeling kind of bad about it today, and was talking about it with my 9 year old daughter. She assured me that it's impossible to lose EVERY time.

I find that Balmoral and the Meadowlands get tougher during the summer. Balmoral seems to have lower payoffs, lack of field depth with chances, and speed favoring results which makes driving strategy much more prevalent during the summer. This makes players like myself, and yourself I believe, who look for value, more likely to have a stretch of bad results during this period. I have better tracks come up during these times so I tend to drop them from my schedule. But I'll be back at the start of winter.

[Valuist]

You referred to Game Theory as a moron and you called my reply ridiculous and you bet 40-60 races a day including harness and quarterhorses? You've fully exposed yourself as an idiot; no intelligent player bets all three. I've done the majority of my wagering over the past 15 years without seeing odds; just scratches and track condition, and its worked just fine. I have TVG and Brisbet accounts now so if I choose, I can watch. I'll get far more out of going thru charts and tape replays than you'll get out of your observations made 2 minutes before post. Any decent experienced player should be able to ANTICIPATE what the public will do.

40-60 races a day....and you NEVER chase, do you??

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by JackS
I't has to be remembered that at times perfectly handicapped races can result in losses that should'nt have occured. I more often than not attempt to beat the favorite even though I realize that the favorite is the legitimate horse to win. I probably won't change from this stratagy but modifications to the tickets one buys can. An example in the last race yesterday at Calder, a short field with the 9 as odds on. To my mind, there was only one possible horse who could possibly upset him and that was the 5 returning from a layoff. The second favorite in this race was the 1 horse and an easy toss due to the very slow adjusted final time. The 2 horse was an obvious "hit the board" type, but not apt to beat the 9. the two remaining horses (8,10) could only be considered in relationship to the 2nd favorite (1). My bet- two trifecta bets 5/9/2,8,10 and 5/9/2,10. The result was 9/2/5/10. And the point here is that since the superfecta was available, a bite of the bullet with the 9 on top of 2,5/2,5/8,10 resulted in a $400+ payoff. I didn't make a dime.

Good example.

Since you thought 5 and 9 were the only two who could win, your first bet should have been both of them on top, especially since the others you liked underneath obviously had some value. You could either stand pat with that bet and root for the 5 to beat the 9 or press the 5 over 9 combinations just because that is where the value is. You should never whiff in a race where your opinion is right and you have a chance at good value (5 beating 9 and prices underneath).

A lot of people I know now bet, or once bet to where they needed a dozen things to go right in a race for them to make any money. Needless to say, they all were losers playing like this. Keep it simple and once you have a good opinion on a race, try to make as few limiting decisions as possible.

[chickenhead]

My Pylon,
I find it quite amazing that you can make an odds line on a full race spending 30 seconds per horse that is accurate enough to require real time odds in the first place. Hats off to you.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by Valuist
you bet 40-60 races a day including harness and quarterhorses? You've fully exposed yourself as an idiot; no intelligent player bets all three.

Well let's see. Quarter Horses is by far the easiest form of racing to beat. Harness is a distant second. They race at night. Tb's race during the day and even though they aren't as easy, I can bet more per race and even though my results aren't as good, because I can bet more, my profit results are comparable. Would you suggest I just play QH's and twiddle my thumbs all day instead of making an equal amout of money on them?

Originally posted by Valuist
I'll get far more out of going thru charts and tape replays than you'll get out of your observations made 2 minutes before post.

Correct! But some us have found out that having a average opinion and spending more time wagering is much more profitable than spending our time developing a sharp opinion on less races.

Originally posted by Valuist
Any decent experienced player should be able to ANTICIPATE what the public will do.


Moronic! That is like saying that any decent experienced market analyst should be able to anticipate what the market will do.

QUOTE]Originally posted by Valuist
40-60 races a day....and you NEVER chase, do you?? [/QUOTE]

Chasing for me could be catastrophic. I couldn't chase if I wanted to. The last 10 or so races I bet a day, I already bet the maximum amount per pool I can. I have losing streaks that would make people vomit. I have winning streaks that would make people faint. Overall, it just boils down to an hourly rate.

[Holy Bull]

I think its possible to win without looking at the tote board at all if you are a tremendoes researcher/data modeler. I could say the same about not looking at pace at all or not looking at trainer at all. However by not looking at the tote at all, you are denying yourself a very key piece of information and can't imagine it would be an advisable strategy in general.
As for chasing, if you can't discipline yourself enough to not bet races without an edge, nothing is going to save you.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by chickenhead
My Pylon,
I find it quite amazing that you can make an odds line on a full race spending 30 seconds per horse that is accurate enough to require real time odds in the first place. Hats off to you.

Never have or never will make an odds line. Complete waste of time. I look at the race, initially throw out the horses I think have no chance or don't like, look for vulnerabilities in the favorites and try to throw them out if possible, look for value in the other areas of the race, and wager in full attack mode.

Let me add that I am very liberal with my line outs. If I don't like something, they are gone. Only after I've done my initial line outs, do I look at the odds (usually 5 minutes or less to post). It amazes me at how many low price horses (usually big question mark horses) I will line out on initial process.

[chickenhead]

isn't the idea of value/overlay/underlay predicated on your perceived odds vs the public? You may not write it down, but you certainly make one.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
Where did thelyingthief's post go? He had some excellent observations.

Mr thief requested via e-mail that I delete his post. Maybe he thought he was giving away the store?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Mr thief requested via e-mail that I delete his post. Maybe he thought he was giving away the store?

I can understand that.

I probably should follow his example even though I have tried my best not to. :(

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by chickenhead
isn't the idea of value/overlay/underlay predicated on your perceived odds vs the public? You may not write it down, but you certainly make one.

Correct!

I don't make one, but when looking at the prices on the board, I will make mental notations that this horse is either too high, too low, or just about right. Usually when the favorite is overbet, It make the race much easier to play because it automatically creates value on every other horse. As I noted in a earlier post about how I came to play a race that seemed unplayable, you will see how I look at the races and bet accordingly.

[chickenhead]

I take your main point to be even with a fast and loose style as to odds, you can more than overcome that defect because the public wagering is so inefficient, relative even to their own opinion, much less yours. You don't need to be a much better handicapper than the public to begin with.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by InsideThePylons-MW
I can understand that.

I probably should follow his example even though I have tried my best not to. :(

Yeah, why would Mr. Thief want to help anyone out? :rolleyes:

Believe me, if you think something you post on here is going to affect your pari-mutuel payoffs down the road, I would have to say that you are deluding yourself in two areas:

1) the importance of this board (which when looked at in the grand scheme of things, doesn't attract a whole hell of a lot of people)

2) the importance of what you might have to say, and the number of people who will actually put what you have to say into CONSISTENT action.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by chickenhead
I take your main point to be even with a fast and loose style as to odds, you can more than overcome that defect because the public wagering is so inefficient, relative even to their own opinion, much less yours. You don't need to be a much better handicapper than the public to begin with.

Correct!

As I said, I have found that it is much more profitable to have a decent opinion with my wagering ability than to have a sharp opinion (which would take up the vast majority of my time) on much fewer races. I could easily pick my spots, bet 100K this year, and have a ROI of .50. It would make my life easier, but I would still have to work hard to sharpen my opinion. I have 2 or 3 tracks (for 20 years, my bread+butter home tracks) that I play where I definitely am one of the sharpest that play those circuits, but I could still be much sharper.

There are many people that have a great opinion. Very few of them know how to bet so as to maximize the return on it, though.

99% of players try to bet on horses. I like to bet on races.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
Believe me, if you think something you post on here is going to affect your pari-mutuel payoffs down the road, I would have to say that you are deluding yourself in two areas:

1) the importance of this board (which when looked at in the grand scheme of things, doesn't attract a whole hell of a lot of people)

2) the importance of what you might have to say, and the number of people who will actually put what you have to say into CONSISTENT action.

I definitely agree to a point. There are a couple of things I focus on in certain situations that if (big IF) a couple of people started doing (it becomes addictive to some), it could definitely affect me somewhere down the road as it wins half or all of the pool an awful lot of the time.

Even though I am somewhat harsh, that is just how I am when arguing, I am still trying to help people that don't seem to want to be helped. I don't think after reading my posts anybody could consider my points to be moronic. I sometimes think I would be better received if I talked about the picking numbers out of a hat system or the box the gray horse system.

[JackS]

All the "rules" are in print. Implementing or in just as many cases, ignoring the rules is an art form not science. Methods that predict winners exist but, very experimental when applied to all tracks, in all conditons by just anyone trying to apply them. They may work for the "inventor"(emphisis on MAY), but I don't believe anyone can write anything even close to a System and have any consistant winning results. The knowledge on this board could easily wrte a method that would equal anything that could be bought yet, would do no better than the $100 "How To" systems on the market. I'ts an evolution and the younger you start, the sooner you will realise that anything that has the potential to make money will not come easy. Using Pace Advantage Forums can speed up the lerning process but no one here has the ability to turn losing players into winners overnight. The old timers still have a lot to learn and the beginners have a mountain to climb. I'm still learning and expect that a year from now ,I will know even more.

[ranchwest]

Originally posted by BillW
What's about ROI? :eek: :D

Jeter's ROI is very high.

[Valuist]

Pylons-

The whole original question was how to get out of a slump. I believe selectivity is the key. When you are going good, then its time to wager more freely. But when going bad, I prefer to back horses I've been waiting for to run back.