my prediciton: Southern Image is horse of the year

[playintheponies]

my prediciton: Southern Image is horse of the year

When I watched SI winning the Pimlico Special I am thinking of Mineshaft doing the same thing last year on his way to being horse of the year. I thing SI stalks Peace Rules and puts him away in the Foster and afterwards continues his winning ways. His trainer is doing a *superb* job with him.

playintheponies

[OTM Al]

It will come down to the BC Classic now. The three real contenders will be Pleasently Perfect, Southern Image and Smarty barring implosions by all 3 of course. Whoever of the 3 who does the best in that race will be the winner.

[playintheponies]

imho, the older horse beats the younger one

[Valuist]

I'm not so sure the older horse will win. But it all depends on whether or not the TC races wreck Smarty or not. If they don't, I think he'll handle either Southern Image or PP. Any 3YO who's speed figures are even in the ballpark w/the older horse usually will beat them, since their numbers tend to increase throughout the year while the older horses have likely peaked. And Smarty is much farther along than 3YOs like Concern (in 94), Proud Truth (in 85) and the 100-1 shot Bailey rode to win the BC Classic in 1993. The biggest myth at the track is that 3YOs can't beat older horses.

[OTM Al]

There is only one exception to that Valuist. It is when 3yos are the high weight against older. Then they do not win.

Sure would have liked to see Medaglia D'Oro at BC time too. Guess Dubai did him in after all. I hope if Smarty is running next year they don't try that one. One last race in Dubai as a 5yo would be okay if he is still racing then (doubtful), but I don't want to see that happen to him as a 4yo.

[Valuist]

I read they are thinking of going that route.

True about the 3YOs and weight but you don't see many 3YOs giving weight to older horses. I also notice that 3YOs may have a little bit more trouble beating older horses on turf but they whip their elders on the main track. I think its a matter of soundness; grass racing isn't as stressful so the older horses stay sounder longer when they are racing primarily on grass.

[OTM Al]

It certainly is rare, but if Smarty had finished 2 lengths further down the track saturday, he may have been made one of those exceptions.

As for turf, I think it is a combination of breeding and training. The horse has to be trained to go against his natural instinct and hold back until that last cavalry charge. Older horse = more training. But then again I stink with turf racing, so that opinion may be just as bad as my handicapping on the green.

Speaking of the turf and younger horses, have you seen Icy Atlantic's first couple turf efforts in NY & NJ? I liked the look of this guy when he debuted at Aqueduct but he just didn't fire on the dirt. He looks to be a nice young runner on the turf.

[Valuist]

Al-

I didn't see the Jersey Derby but I did see his Allowance win. I thought that was a strong NW1X field and would be a key race. I think Rayon ran around 7th in there and he came back and won. Private Scandal came back to run 2nd. Quassapaug came back and ran either 2nd or 3rd last weekend.

[OTM Al]

I lost more than my share on him waiting for him to break his maiden, but I kept after him every time. He just looked that good. Guess the inner at Aqueduct was just not to his liking

[Tom]

I'm thinking Midway Road is going to be the next "big horse."
I think tomorrow will be his notice to the handiap division that it just got klicked up a notch.
We shall see, but I'm banking a super effort from MW in the Foster Saturday.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Tom
I'm thinking Midway Road is going to be the next "big horse."
I think tomorrow will be his notice to the handiap division that it just got klicked up a notch.
We shall see, but I'm banking a super effort from MW in the Foster Saturday.

My opinion on MW is based on:
KEE 3-3-0-0
PIM 2-0-2-0
Everywhere else 7-1-0-2

But, Tom, we both know that differences of opinion are what makes this game great.

[Tom]

I hope to get 7-2 on him....that will be sweet.

[playintheponies]

wow, getting nosed out sure hurts, especially by a 60:1 shot when you had it one way but didn't turn it around

[freehouse2002]

Thats exactly what I did. I mean c'mon, I liked the 6, but not to win!! Cost me the exacta and tri, but hey thats racing and I will live to play another day.




freehouse2002

[PaceAdvantage]

Haven't we all learned by now that they all get beat??? LOL

[Tom]

It's what they get beat BY that makes you go Hmmmmmm?