NFL....Week 6

[thaskalos]

All the sports talk is about baseball...but...business is business :)

Hou. +1
Ten. -1.5
Car. +7
S.D. +10.5
Bal. -2
NYG +4

(10-6-2 YTD)

[bks]

Can you expand on your SD pick, Thask? I'm in a mid-5-figure survivor pool that's down to a handful of players. I'm one of only 3 players with GB still to use, and SD coming across half the country off a deflating last-play loss on Monday Night seemed to me to be a recipe for a less-than-great effort from them.I have GB teed up, but I have other options, just none as seemingly strong.

Just curious if you think an upset is a real possibility (say 35% or more) or if you are thinking it's a touchdown game with too big a spread.

[thaskalos]

Can you expand on your SD pick, Thask? I'm in a mid-5-figure survivor pool that's down to a handful of players. I'm one of only 3 players with GB still to use, and SD coming across half the country off a deflating last-play loss on Monday Night seemed to me to be a recipe for a less-than-great effort from them.I have GB teed up, but I have other options, just none as seemingly strong.

Just curious if you think an upset is a real possibility (say 35% or more) or if you are thinking it's a touchdown game with too big a spread.
My line-making process depends rather heavily on certain offensive and defensive matchups...and these matchups indicate that this has the makings for a much closer game than the Las Vegas line suggests. I have the Packers favored by 4.

[magwell]

Minn -4 Mia +1- SF +2..........Now 9-9-1

[Valuist]

1-0 last week, 5-9 YTD

Buffalo +3
Jacksonville -1
Chicago +3
Indy +9
NYG/Philly Under 49 1/2

[Valuist]

Can you expand on your SD pick, Thask? I'm in a mid-5-figure survivor pool that's down to a handful of players. I'm one of only 3 players with GB still to use, and SD coming across half the country off a deflating last-play loss on Monday Night seemed to me to be a recipe for a less-than-great effort from them.I have GB teed up, but I have other options, just none as seemingly strong.

Just curious if you think an upset is a real possibility (say 35% or more) or if you are thinking it's a touchdown game with too big a spread.

Yes, I'm sure you will advance with GB. But the question is....is there another better spot in the not too distant future? Detroit won 11 games last year but is a very bad football team right now. The Packers host the Lions in week 10. Always want to save the two trump cards (NE & GB) but of course, that's no good if you don't advance.

[Marshall Bennett]

Broncos -4
Jaguars -1
Bears +3
Steelers +4
Titans -1
Giants +5

Year: 11-12

[NJ Stinks]

I guess I can't wait forever for NJ to get sports betting. :)

Broncos -4

Redskins +6.5

[thaskalos]

All the sports talk is about baseball...but...business is business :)

Hou. +1
Ten. -1.5
Car. +7
S.D. +10.5
Bal. -2
NYG +4

(10-6-2 YTD)

Chi. +3.5

[bks]

Yes, I'm sure you will advance with GB. But the question is....is there another better spot in the not too distant future? Detroit won 11 games last year but is a very bad football team right now. The Packers host the Lions in week 10. Always want to save the two trump cards (NE & GB) but of course, that's no good if you don't advance.

Appreciate the thoughts. I considered saving them for the Detroit game. But it's a divisional game, however, and while the Lions are weaker than SD the divisional angle is a powerful one to avoid where possible. Further, both the Ravens and Bengals will likely be good picks that week. I have both currently available.

[taxicab]

Baltimore Ravens -2

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Threatening to poke my nose above the Mendoza line, which probably means a bad week in the offing:

Sides:
*****
KC +3.5 over Minny
Chicago +3.5 over Detroit
Pittsburgh +4 over Arizona
Tenn -2 over Miami (Da Fish)
Indy +9.5 over New England

Totals:
*****
Arizona/Pittsburgh UNDER 45
Seattle/Carolina OVER 40.5

Season: Sides 11-14, totals: 7-3 (-0.7 units)

[bks]

Changed survivor pick to NE. On closer inspection I see some worrying circumstances affecting GB. Rivers is the best QB they've faced all year. SD's desperation may play to their advantage. Pack will perhaps be looking toward their bye week and has key injuries to skill players. Rodgers' sub-par game last week (for him) was probably attributable to the Rams D more than anything else, but it could also mean he's in a mild form dip (maybe a slight injury) that, if it persists, could help keep the game close. GB hasn't had the monster offensive home games they usually do two times in a row now.

SD's injuries to the offensive line are significant but I can see a motivated Rivers milking the playclock down to 1 every play a la the win they had against Denver on the road a couple years back, and shortening the game to a one-possession affair. Barring turnovers of course.

I still think GB manages to pull the game out, but risk seems greater than risk to NE. Thx to all for feedback.

[_______]

Dipping my toe in the water this week with a couple of money line bets:

DET -190
CAR +250

I was actually looking for DET -3 but the line at Bovada is 3.5 this morning so after a cup of coffee I decided to lay odds on a Matthew Stafford led offense.

And no. It was just coffee. No alcohol. I think the Bears are that bad.

[BetHorses!]

GB OVER 50.5

NE OVER 53.5

[NJ Stinks]

I guess I can't wait forever for NJ to get sports betting. :)

Broncos -4

Redskins +6.5

WHEW! And to think I could be living in Nevada.... :blush:


0-2 YTD

[thaskalos]

No roughing the punter against G.B.?

[NJ Stinks]

No roughing the punter against G.B.?

Supposedly, he was blocked into the punter. I didn't see it that way either.

[magwell]

Minn -4 Mia +1- SF +2..........Now 9-9-1Last week 0-4 this week 3-0 now12-9-1

[_______]

Dipping my toe in the water this week with a couple of money line bets:

DET -190
CAR +250

I was actually looking for DET -3 but the line at Bovada is 3.5 this morning so after a cup of coffee I decided to lay odds on a Matthew Stafford led offense.

And no. It was just coffee. No alcohol. I think the Bears are that bad.

Blind Squirrel gratefully acknowledges the nut he fell over with Detroit line move.

Then tears off xs squirrel shirt and pounds tiny squirrel chest with tiny squirrel fists over massive Carolina call.

Does embarrassing squirrel moon walk.

[bks]

Nice week so far, Thask. And thanks for the insight on GB. I my have to sweat the NE game late, but getting off GB was the right thing to do. They easily could have lost.

[thaskalos]

Nice week so far, Thask. And thanks for the insight on GB. I my have to sweat the NE game late, but getting off GB was the right thing to do. They easily could have lost.
Thanks. I am sitting here wondering what the heck I am doing betting the horses. :)

[proximity]

terrible officiating tonight on the onside kick that moncrief clearly recovered. :mad:

then pagano hands new England the rest of the game with that ridiculous illegal fake punt call. :mad: :mad:

wtf?? :confused:

[thaskalos]

4-3 for the week...(14-9-2 YTD)

[Marshall Bennett]

Broncos -4
Jaguars -1
Bears +3
Steelers +4
Titans -1
Giants +5

Year: 13-16