kingfin66
06-10-2004, 09:13 PM
I will be watching a little EmD this evening since TVG will show all the races in their entirety.
1) Pass, n2l - I hate these. If pressed, I like #1
2) I will try to beat the favorite with #5. The fav has the best ratings, but was in a contentious race last out. I like this as a vulnerable favorite angle. #5 is 2nd off a layoff and was chasing a pretty fast pace last time. 5 also has the second best numbers and the value, but maybe not quite the price I would like to see.
3) #4. This is a Heavy Pressure race. #4 has a good balance of VT odds to contention line odds, a good running style for the race, good numbers, and is 2nd off the layoff. There may not be great price.
4) A very evenly matched Pressured maiden sprint. I don't care to play pressured maiden races, preferring to rate off of PBS whenever possible in maiden races. That said, look for #1 to nail this field at low odds.
5) Pass. The cheapest claimer there is at EmD. The top choice is an S in style, but the race is neutral. Once you get past the top rated horse you run into close ratings and lots of question marks.
6) A cheap maiden claimer. I had #10, Double Diamond Norma, in her last race. She almost won. It was a contentious race and I look for her to regress a little. I will go with #5 instead. #5 has the second best PPF (using PPF in this race due to adjustment issues and the fact that many of the contenders have a P running style - I think PPF is a better fit even with the neutral pace scenario). Again, maybe not much price here, but a little bit of value.
7) A Heavy Pressure sprint. My selection, #3, is tied for the top PPF (although a lower PBS) with the likely favorite. He has a good style for the race (S), a good number, value and price. That's what I like.
8) n2l - pass
1) Pass, n2l - I hate these. If pressed, I like #1
2) I will try to beat the favorite with #5. The fav has the best ratings, but was in a contentious race last out. I like this as a vulnerable favorite angle. #5 is 2nd off a layoff and was chasing a pretty fast pace last time. 5 also has the second best numbers and the value, but maybe not quite the price I would like to see.
3) #4. This is a Heavy Pressure race. #4 has a good balance of VT odds to contention line odds, a good running style for the race, good numbers, and is 2nd off the layoff. There may not be great price.
4) A very evenly matched Pressured maiden sprint. I don't care to play pressured maiden races, preferring to rate off of PBS whenever possible in maiden races. That said, look for #1 to nail this field at low odds.
5) Pass. The cheapest claimer there is at EmD. The top choice is an S in style, but the race is neutral. Once you get past the top rated horse you run into close ratings and lots of question marks.
6) A cheap maiden claimer. I had #10, Double Diamond Norma, in her last race. She almost won. It was a contentious race and I look for her to regress a little. I will go with #5 instead. #5 has the second best PPF (using PPF in this race due to adjustment issues and the fact that many of the contenders have a P running style - I think PPF is a better fit even with the neutral pace scenario). Again, maybe not much price here, but a little bit of value.
7) A Heavy Pressure sprint. My selection, #3, is tied for the top PPF (although a lower PBS) with the likely favorite. He has a good style for the race (S), a good number, value and price. That's what I like.
8) n2l - pass