Breeders Cup Classic

[letswastemoney]

It should come down to American Pharoah and Beholder, although they will both be overbet on name recognition.

AP needs no explanation. He's a 3-year-old, so any argument of average speed figures does not bother me. Beholder is as good as American Pharoah if she duplicates the Pacific Classic. I see no reason why not. Her two races where she shipped are good.

I don't trust Honor Code. There are 2 major strikes against him: unknown at 10F and dependent on pace collapsing. His Kelso effort was fine though, so if you liked him before, it shouldn't be a deterrent.

Keen Ice and Smooth Ruler are closers with much better value. I'd rather use them.

[horses4courses]

I don't trust Honor Code. There are 2 major strikes against him: unknown at 10F and dependent on pace collapsing. His Kelso effort was fine though, so if you liked him before, it shouldn't be a deterrent.

I liked Honor Code before the Kelso.
I don't like him as much now, though, and it has little to do with the Kelso.
Liam's Map opting for the Dirt Mile changes the pace scenario.

He could still win, or go close, but Liam's Map would have helped his chances.

[Appy]

I tend to expect AP has a better shot at a clean trip while Beholder will likely have to deal with more traffic. Hard to see how that is advantageous for a lone female in a race like this one figures to be.

[Stillriledup]

I tend to expect AP has a better shot at a clean trip while Beholder will likely have to deal with more traffic. Hard to see how that is advantageous for a lone female in a race like this one figures to be.

It's going to be a tough grind for all involved, the winner Is going to earn it, no freebies.

[letswastemoney]

I tend to expect AP has a better shot at a clean trip while Beholder will likely have to deal with more traffic. Hard to see how that is advantageous for a lone female in a race like this one figures to be.Beholder has plenty of early speed to stay out of trouble. The field is no bigger than the Pacific Classic. I think she'll get her trip, whether she's good enough or not.

[ronsmac]

If the field stays the way it looks now and if American Pharoah has bounced back from his hard campaign, then I hate the projected trip for Beholder. She looks to get the old Bill Quirin watchdog trip. Probably the first to move against a strong front runner. She won't be on my exacta tickets.

[NY BRED]

ARE THE WEIGHTS EVEN?

I'M THINKING BEHOLDER GETS A WEIGHT DROP.

UNCERAIN IF THAT'S THE CASE WITH AP AS A THREE YEAR OLD

:confused:

[Saratoga_Mike]

AP off the board. If he were back to his "A" game, there would have been one more prep race.

[Tom]

He will retire 10/26-10/28.

[classhandicapper]

AP off the board. If he were back to his "A" game, there would have been one more prep race.

After the Haskell, Baffert said the race knocked him out. Then they went to the Travers anyway.

He recently said the Travers knocked him out and even suggested the long hard campaign was catching up with him.

Baffert kept him off the track for longer this time than after his previous races. So it seems Baffert was/is trying to recharge his batteries while also getting him ready for the Classic.

IMO where he is in his form cycle is the most important question for this race. As a relatively lightly raced 3yo, he is eligible to run a lifetime top in the Classic if fresh and ready. But if the long hard campaign is catching up with him and the Travers loss was the first sign of that, then he's highly vulnerable to a dud race.

I know some people think he ran his race in the Travers, but I don't agree. He ran very well to put away Frosted and hang tough. But he's a MUCH faster horse than Frosted when he's right and he had a lot of trouble just getting away from him. Either he was not 100% or the rail was not the best path (right on the rail). After watching the races that day and looking at all the replays multiple times, I thought I could make a reasonable case the rail was not dead, but not ideal either. The subsequent evidence hasn't supported that conclusion. It's a tough call to figure out what to expect from him.

[PaceAdvantage]

AP off the board. If he were back to his "A" game, there would have been one more prep race.My gut disagrees. In fact, my gut says AP will bring his best race ever to the BCC...

[Cratos]

My gut disagrees. In fact, my gut says AP will bring his best race ever to the BCC...
I agree; this horse is better than I thought and his Travers supports that contention.

[OTM Al]

ARE THE WEIGHTS EVEN?

I'M THINKING BEHOLDER GETS A WEIGHT DROP.

UNCERAIN IF THAT'S THE CASE WITH AP AS A THREE YEAR OLD

:confused:
Memory says 126 for males, 123 for females, but memory is not always correct. There has to be an allowance though.

[classhandicapper]

Memory says 126 for males, 123 for females, but memory is not always correct. There has to be an allowance though.

You are correct. It's 123 for the females.

[no breathalyzer]

He will retire 10/26-10/28.

I see this as a real possibility as well

[cbp]

Comes down to Victor. AP beats these horses, WITH an INTELLIGENT ride, whether 100% fit or close enough to it.
Tired of the focus in the Travers being on his, putatively, less than 100% fitness; rather than on how Victor used him incorrectly and got him abused. The idea is to conserve, not win like a champion. Keen Ice, who was stumbling and bumbling entiring the stretch, beating AP was just about a flat out crime

[no breathalyzer]

Comes down to Victor. AP beats these horses, WITH an INTELLIGENT ride, whether 100% fit or close enough to it.
Tired of the focus in the Travers being on his, putatively, less than 100% fitness; rather than on how Victor used him incorrectly and got him abused. The idea is to conserve, not win like a champion. Keen Ice, who was stumbling and bumbling entiring the stretch, beating AP was just about a flat out crime

Ok i'l bite the bait. why was Keen Ice 's win garbage. where was the crime? AP finally didn't get a cake walk early . Ran a huge race just wasn't good enough that day

[cj]

Memory says 126 for males, 123 for females, but memory is not always correct. There has to be an allowance though.

...and 122 for 3yo males, 119 for the rare 3yo filly.

[completebill]

All research shows that these sort of weight variations are completely inconsequential. Just plain meaningless.
Weight may be a (minor) factor if a horse is carrying a weight he's never before carried, by several pounds, at least, and it's significantly more than the rest of the field, but in a race like the Classic, it's a NON-Handicapping factor.

[SandyW]

I see Beholder off the board as American Pharaoh romps in his best race of his career.

[Cratos]

All research shows that these sort of weight variations are completely inconsequential. Just plain meaningless.
Weight may be a (minor) factor if a horse is carrying a weight he's never before carried, by several pounds, at least, and it's significantly more than the rest of the field, but in a race like the Classic, it's a NON-Handicapping factor.
Weight is an impact to a horse's velocity performance and there are two predictive models that I know of which are very good for determining such impact. One is the "Oxygen Model" and the other is the "Force Model."

However what both models verify is that one pound does not equal 1/5 second or one beaten length.

[Grits]

For anyone with access to FB, Twin Spires has posted a fine video of Beholder with Mandella, Stevens, et al. (Of particular interest...amazing when two of your barn staff, combined, have been with you for 50 years!)

It may be common knowledge, though it wasn't to me as I've not been paying as much attention. Mandella states in the video that he will be shipping her to Kentucky early rather than his usual habit of shipping in week of the race. He indicated extra schooling for her, etc.

Class has noted a lot to consider in his post about Pharoah. Maybe everyone doesn't feel it, but Baffert seems uncharacteristically quiet in these days leading up to the big race.

I don't see Beholder off the board, not at all.

[thaskalos]

My gut disagrees. In fact, my gut says AP will bring his best race ever to the BCC...

He better...

[cj]

All research shows that these sort of weight variations are completely inconsequential. Just plain meaningless.
Weight may be a (minor) factor if a horse is carrying a weight he's never before carried, by several pounds, at least, and it's significantly more than the rest of the field, but in a race like the Classic, it's a NON-Handicapping factor.

Can't say all research. There is plenty, including mine, that shows weight matters.

[cj]

However what both models verify is that one pound does not equal 1/5 second or one beaten length.

Has anyone ever claimed this?

[highnote]

I like a trainer angle... Shug in KY.

[Cratos]

Has anyone ever claimed this?
Not anyone, but handicapping books when I came into this game always said one pound per 1/5 sec/length.

However what is your understanding on weight toted difference between horses?

[Cratos]

I like a trainer angle... Shug in KY.
I am a big Shug fan, but aren't you curious why he didn't run Honor Code with his breeding in JCGC?

[Tom]

I am a big Shug fan, but aren't you curious why he didn't run Honor Code with his breeding in JCGC?
No, because he told us why he didn't.

[letswastemoney]

Maybe Shug wanted to pick up 1 more graded stakes victory, and save the unknown of 10 furlongs for Honor Code's final race (if it is).

[cj]

Not anyone, but handicapping books when I came into this game always said one pound per 1/5 sec/length.

However what is your understanding on weight toted difference between horses?

I just asked because the stuff I have read, more than a few different sources, were all in the ballpark of 5 pounds equaling a length or a fifth of a second. (not that they are the same thing of course)

[Saratoga_Mike]

My gut disagrees. In fact, my gut says AP will bring his best race ever to the BCC...

Keep in mind, I'm a horrible handicapper, so you may be onto something.

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95102/american-pharoah-speedy-in-santa-anita-drill

[classhandicapper]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95102/american-pharoah-speedy-in-santa-anita-drill


:eek: :ThmbUp:

I guess he's OK

[PaceAdvantage]

He better...People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.

[cbp]

If he wasn't 100% fit (needed a race) going into the Travers, then I'd agree. If he was struggling to hold his form after a hard campaign, then the Travers would accelerate his decline.

[Saratoga_Mike]

People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.

I think that's a big IF.

[Maximillion]

If he wasn't 100% fit (needed a race) going into the Travers, then I'd agree. If he was struggling to hold his form after a hard campaign, then the Travers would accelerate his decline.

I think another possibility is that Frosted may be a better horse than a lot of people think.

[Secondbest]

I was just going to post that AP needed a fast 7f With a nice gallop out to a mile.Well we got it. If the next Work is Sharp the rest of the field better have their running shoes on If They want to try to beat him..

[cj]

People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.

I think more than anything the inside draw was his downfall. He is good on the lead, but he is better stalking. In either case, he ran as well at Saratoga as he had in other races by my numbers.

[cbp]

I think another possibility is that Frosted may be a better horse than a lot of people think.
You mean the horse that got a once-in-a- career setup in the Belmont and couldn't get it done? Kidding, right?

Edit: make that once every 100 years setup. It was that good and he bombed.

[cj]

You mean the horse that got a once-in-a- career setup in the Belmont and couldn't get it done? Kidding, right?

Edit: make that once every 100 years setup. It was that good and he bombed.


Chasing a fast horse on a lone lead is a once in a 100 year set up? Really?

[Maximillion]

You mean the horse that got a once-in-a- career setup in the Belmont and couldn't get it done? Kidding, right?

Edit: make that once every 100 years setup. It was that good and he bombed.


Is it not possible he may be better now? that was over 3 months ago.

[Cratos]

People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.
Again, I agree with you. AP made three significant moves in the Travers: the move from the gate, the move to recapture the lead from Frosted, and the move to hold off Keen Ice (which he didn’t do) at the wire.

The big plus for me about AP this year has been his ability to travel from track to track and maintain his form regardless of track configuration, surface, or distance.

I realize that he did it against 3yos, but still that was an arduous undertaking.

[Cratos]

I just asked because the stuff I have read, more than a few different sources, were all in the ballpark of 5 pounds equaling a length or a fifth of a second. (not that they are the same thing of course)
Not saying that the 5 pound reference wasn’t published, but it would be a difficult metric if not impossible metric to determine because you are attempting to determine the slope of the vector with respect to time by using distance.

What I like about the “Force Model” is that you rearrange the equation to determine acceleration and since mass (weight) is now in the denominator as you increase mass, acceleration will decrease; ultimately decreasing time. The “Oxygen Model” is much harder to prove because it revolves around the horse’s breathing efficiency.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

What is the story with Coach Inge?

Is he injured? Not pointed to the BC?

[ronsmac]

I think more than anything the inside draw was his downfall. He is good on the lead, but he is better stalking. In either case, he ran as well at Saratoga as he had in other races by my numbers.
Numbers aside, he looked done at that 5/8ths pole to me. My buddy called it even before that, probably at the 6f pole. If he runs that race again, he won't be in the top 3.

[cj]

Numbers aside, he looked done at that 5/8ths pole to me. My buddy called it even before that, probably at the 6f pole. If he runs that race again, he won't be in the top 3.

The numbers don't agree and neither do I...we'll see in a few weeks. How Will we know if he runs "that race again"?

[Cratos]

Numbers aside, he looked done at that 5/8ths pole to me. My buddy called it even before that, probably at the 6f pole. If he runs that race again, he won't be in the top 3.
OK, AP didn't look good and yet it took a sub-2:02 effort for a 1-1/4m race to beat him by 3/4 length.

For full disclosure I came to the AP camp late; betting against him in the Derby and the Belmont and loss a hefty sum in doing so.

Therefore in the BCC I am skeptical about Tonalist winning away from Belmont, Honor Code getting a winning 1-1/4m, and Beholder being good enough to beat the "boys" in a route.

Am I looking through rose-colored glasses?

[ronsmac]

The numbers don't agree and neither do I...we'll see in a few weeks. How Will we know if he runs "that race again"?Make that the 3 1/2 not the 5/8ths. I have to give credit to a buddy who called him a loser at the 3/4 pole, and he had no betting interests. I'm on the fence B.C. day with this horse. He looks like lone speed, especially with the way they've been rating Beholder lately. I'm not sure he can bounce back, but he does have Bob Baffert who's the master in these big races.

[ronsmac]

OK, AP didn't look good and yet it took a sub-2:02 effort for a 1-1/4m race to beat him by 3/4 length.

For full disclosure I came to the AP camp late; betting against him in the Derby and the Belmont and loss a hefty sum in doing so.

Therefore in the BCC I am skeptical about Tonalist winning away from Belmont, Honor Code getting a winning 1-1/4m, and Beholder being good enough to beat the "boys" in a route.

Am I looking through rose-colored glasses?I don't disagree with any of your analysis.

[ronsmac]

The numbers don't agree and neither do I...we'll see in a few weeks. How Will we know if he runs "that race again"?That's true. Your numbers may be spot on.

[menifee]

Anybody concerned that AP might not run his best at a mile and a quarter?

[depalma113]

You mean the horse that got a once-in-a- career setup in the Belmont and couldn't get it done? Kidding, right?

Edit: make that once every 100 years setup. It was that good and he bombed.

Once in a 100 years?

He ran into a dual Classic winner that was lone speed. He had absolutely no shot to win.

[cbp]

Once in a 100 years?

He ran into a dual Classic winner that was lone speed. He had absolutely no shot to win.
You didn't watch the race?

[castaway01]

You didn't watch the race?

You thought you had a funny line and got called out on it and can't defend it?

[cbp]

You thought you had a funny line and got called out on it and can't defend it?
Watch the replay. What do I need to defend? If it's not obvious in the replay, he/you lack the requisite skill.

[classhandicapper]

On speed figures AP ran a similar race in the Travers as he's been running all along when you consider the relative trips. That's the consensus view because it's very obvious and logical. He was under a lot of pressure from Frosted (who is quite good IMO) so of course it took a little out of him.

The problem I had with that race is not the speed figure or that he got beat. It's that I am close to 100% certain that AP is a LOT faster than Frosted in terms of pure brilliance when he's at his best. Yet when challenged by Frosted, he couldn't shake him.

Why couldn't a very brilliant speed horse shake a horse that is more of a closer relatively early in the race when he's also the better horse to begin with?

If he shook him, got a little tired from the effort, ran a similar figure and got beat, I'd say he ran his race and got beat. But that fact that he couldn't shake him even though he has dusted faster horses without even hitting his top gear makes me think he was not at his best or something else was going on.

That was one of several reasons I initially suspected that the rail path may not have been the best path that day (not a major negative but kind of dead). Some riders were avoiding the rail on the backstretch and the turn that day. Why? A couple may have cut the corner and raced inside through the stretch, but some were staying WAY out on the track in the backstretch and purposely moving off the rail into more of the 2 path on the turn. Why?

I am tracking every single horse that raced inside that day for a significant portion of the race to see how they do next out. The subsequent evidence is not conclusive. A few horses jumped way up, but a few that I expected to run well actually regressed. It's not unusual to get mixed results like that, but you usually get a preponderance of evidence either supporting or refuting the initial observation. So far there is no preponderance, but there are more horses to come this week.

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95131/beholder-beautiful-in-final-socal-breeze

[cj]

Watch the replay. What do I need to defend? If it's not obvious in the replay, he/you lack the requisite skill.

You need to stop being a troll ASAP.

[ronsmac]

On speed figures AP ran a similar race in the Travers as he's been running all along when you consider the relative trips. That's the consensus view because it's very obvious and logical. He was under a lot of pressure from Frosted (who is quite good IMO) so of course it took a little out of him.

The problem I had with that race is not the speed figure or that he got beat. It's that I am close to 100% certain that AP is a LOT faster than Frosted in terms of pure brilliance when he's at his best. Yet when challenged by Frosted, he couldn't shake him.

Why couldn't a very brilliant speed horse shake a horse that is more of a closer relatively early in the race when he's also the better horse to begin with?

If he shook him, got a little tired from the effort, ran a similar figure and got beat, I'd say he ran his race and got beat. But that fact that he couldn't shake him even though he has dusted faster horses without even hitting his top gear makes me think he was not at his best or something else was going on.

That was one of several reasons I initially suspected that the rail path may not have been the best path that day (not a major negative but kind of dead). Some riders were avoiding the rail on the backstretch and the turn that day. Why? A couple may have cut the corner and raced inside through the stretch, but some were staying WAY out on the track in the backstretch and purposely moving off the rail into more of the 2 path on the turn. Why?

I am tracking every single horse that raced inside that day for a significant portion of the race to see how they do next out. The subsequent evidence is not conclusive. A few horses jumped way up, but a few that I expected to run well actually regressed. It's not unusual to get mixed results like that, but you usually get a preponderance of evidence either supporting or refuting the initial observation. So far there is no preponderance, but there are more horses to come this week.Figure making is such an imprecise science/ art. That's why5 different sources often rate the same horse differently. Sometimes by a number of lengths. Ap probably should've received an incomplete or inconclusive number for the Preakness. Rapidly changing conditions at a rarely run distance with 35mph winds. Of course when selling a service, whether beyer,brown,ragozin,tf etc..customers would rather have something than nothing.

[cj]

Figure making is such an imprecise science/ art. That's why5 different sources often rate the same horse differently. Sometimes by a number of lengths. Ap probably should've received an incomplete or inconclusive number for the Preakness. Rapidly changing conditions at a rarely run distance with 35mph winds. Of course when selling a service, whether beyer,brown,ragozin,tf etc..customers would rather have something than nothing.

We actually do tell people when figures are shaky.

http://timeformusblog.com/2015/06/03/transparency-in-timeformus-speed-figures-question-marks-introduced-for-suspect-numbers/

However, the Preakness was not one of those and it was my call. The race and the one after lined up perfectly and both have held up very well in future races also.

[PhantomOnTour]

> this race will come down to American Pharoah and Tonalist*

> Beholder looks like she'll have to play watchdog to AP...she's a strong middle mover but I think he turns her away and she will be very vulnerable to the late runners...I am tossing her completely from my bets as of now

*only possible fly in the ointment is Smooth Roller, who ran a huge fig last time out and is obviously improving rapidly. He stalked an ordinary pace and ran away from the field...he will have to keep up with a faster clip this time. His price will determine if I use him, and honestly, he may represent the only value in this race.

I will play the Classic in multi race wagers, but may end up passing on the race itself.

[cbp]

You need to stop being a troll ASAP.
Not wanting to discuss trip with people who don't understand them is trolling?

[cj]

Not wanting to discuss trip with people who don't understand them is trolling?

If you are going to make comments like you did you should be willing to discuss it...other wise keep it to yourself. Yes, you have been doing what is considered trolling.

[cbp]

If you are going to make comments like you did you should be willing to discuss it...other wise keep it to yourself. Yes, you have been doing what is considered trolling.
If you watch the replay, the horse is sitting a perfect inside trip, while the others are going after AP. When they enter, he has dead aim and figures to easily go by, given his relatively easy trip to that point. He was never asked to that point. (He got stopped when he tried and then just sat.) But he doesn't. He spits it out.
There you go

[ronsmac]

We actually do tell people when figures are shaky.

http://timeformusblog.com/2015/06/03/transparency-in-timeformus-speed-figures-question-marks-introduced-for-suspect-numbers/

However, the Preakness was not one of those and it was my call. The race and the one after lined up perfectly and both have held up very well in future races also.I hear you, it's atill educated guesstimation imo, especially when the 1st race went from dry to slop and wind that nearly blew the tents over , to the 2nd having considerably less wind and rain. It really doesn't matter though, I didnt make figures for the race , so I'm a little ignorant about the number.

[tanner12oz]

Are we doing a contest here at pa again like previous years?

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95261/american-pharoah-wows-in-santa-anita-work

Pharoah just keeps on rolling... and really fast.

A video will likely follow, somewhere today.

[classhandicapper]

Just a couple of notes on the Travers day rail.

Sarah Sis spent a lot of time on the rail in the Ballerina on Travers day. She ran poorly in her next start at CT. She bounced back with a win in the Raven Run at 17-1 this weekend running what was probably her best race. Not sure if you want to correlate that winning race to the Ballerina because there was a bad race in between, but it doesn't hurt the case that she had also run better than it looks in the Ballerina.

Earlier in the week, Watershed won for fun at KEE in a NW1 ALW. He was 2/5 and figured to win under any circumstances. But he also spent a lot of time on the rail Travers day. Again, not sure how much evidence that is for thinking the rail may not have been the best path Travers day, but it doesn't hurt the case and he looked great last week.

[ronsmac]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95261/american-pharoah-wows-in-santa-anita-work

Pharoah just keeps on rolling... and really fast.

A video will likely follow, somewhere today.It's hard to say what that workout means. His final 2 works before the Travers were described as incredible and pwrfect. We all know what happened that day. With no Liam's map and Beholder spiking a fever, it does appear as if American Pharoah may coast on a pretty easy lead. It looks like only two scenarios, AP all the way on the lead, or the horse laying 3rd or 4th who makes the 2nd move

[cbp]

Just a couple of notes on the Travers day rail.

Sarah Sis spent a lot of time on the rail in the Ballerina on Travers day. She ran poorly in her next start at CT. She bounced back with a win in the Raven Run at 17-1 this weekend running what was probably her best race. Not sure if you want to correlate that winning race to the Ballerina because there was a bad race in between, but it doesn't hurt the case that she had also run better than it looks in the Ballerina.

Earlier in the week, Watershed won for fun at KEE in a NW1 ALW. He was 2/5 and figured to win under any circumstances. But he also spent a lot of time on the rail Travers day. Again, not sure how much evidence that is for thinking the rail may not have been the best path Travers day, but it doesn't hurt the case and he looked great last week.


What's your next task: finally realizing that Bernardino moved too soon in the Classic?

[EMD4ME]

Just a couple of notes on the Travers day rail.

Sarah Sis spent a lot of time on the rail in the Ballerina on Travers day. She ran poorly in her next start at CT. She bounced back with a win in the Raven Run at 17-1 this weekend running what was probably her best race. Not sure if you want to correlate that winning race to the Ballerina because there was a bad race in between, but it doesn't hurt the case that she had also run better than it looks in the Ballerina.

Earlier in the week, Watershed won for fun at KEE in a NW1 ALW. He was 2/5 and figured to win under any circumstances. But he also spent a lot of time on the rail Travers day. Again, not sure how much evidence that is for thinking the rail may not have been the best path Travers day, but it doesn't hurt the case and he looked great last week.

Thanks Class. This is exactly the type of work that yields important nuggets. Much appreciate stuff like this. :ThmbUp:

My feedback, if I may, I have the rail much better after race 7 and a BAD rail for 1-7. Watershed was massacred at the gate in race 9 and I too expected him to crush in his next start of his poor start, not his running path. Sarah Sis ran in the 4 path on the backstretch, 3 path for the early part of the far turn and finally to the rail mid far turn. Her win 2 after doesn't tell me much as she didn't run on the rail till the 3/8's.

Anyway, fun analyzing this stuff and appreciate your work on this.

[classhandicapper]

What's your next task: finally realizing that Bernardino moved too soon in the Classic?

Bernadini was an excellent horse that may have moved a bit too soon in the Classic, but imo the "moved too soon" angle is overrated by some people when it comes to dirt racing (imo it means more on turf)

If moving too soon was such a problem on dirt, we wouldn't see so many wire to wire winners on dirt despite speed horses moving WAY sooner and WAY faster than a mildly premature move on the turn by a closer. It's not the same on turf.

Bernandini moved first, but the cheaper speeds had used themselves up and were starting to slow down at that point. They went the first half in 46 3/5 while he was well off the pace. Then they went in around 50 while he was gaining ground and taking the lead. So he did a lot better than 50, but he wasn't smoking. Part of it was an optical illusion.

The inside paths were also better that day and both he and Invasor gave up ground including Invasor rallying out in the middle of the track. So no, I haven't changed my view on that race very much almost 10 years later. I didn't cash.

[cj]

What's your next task: finally realizing that Bernardino moved too soon in the Classic?

Dude, seriously, you need to chill. No more of these kinds of remarks.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks Class. This is exactly the type of work that yields important nuggets. Much appreciate stuff like this. :ThmbUp:

My feedback, if I may, I have the rail much better after race 7 and a BAD rail for 1-7. Watershed was massacred at the gate in race 9 and I too expected him to crush in his next start of his poor start, not his running path. Sarah Sis ran in the 4 path on the backstretch, 3 path for the early part of the far turn and finally to the rail mid far turn. Her win 2 after doesn't tell me much as she didn't run on the rail till the 3/8's.

Anyway, fun analyzing this stuff and appreciate your work on this.

Thanks.

Yeah, I agree. Those 2 horses are not exactly the best examples for making the case that the rail was "suspect". I'm tracking them all. The evidence is still mixed, but I feel there might be enough to think it wasn't the best path like I thought during the live racing. It wasn't death or even bad, just not optimal. I'd rather have been outside than inside, especially not battling inside.

I had some thoughts that it might have changed during the day, but when I start trying to take it to that level (absent rain or a drying out track etc..) I start working with such small samples it's tough to be confident of anything.

[classhandicapper]

So, he, finally, understood the trip? And he's now obfuscating biases?

Oopps :lol:

Dude, I don't know what you are talking about.

IMO Bernadini moving sooner than Invasor was not a huge factor in that race, especially given that Invasor was not even all out late. It was probably a small negative, but not huge. I said it back then and I just said the same thing now.
There was more going on than just the timing of the move.

Feel free to disagree.

[cj]

Dude, I don't know what you are talking about.

IMO Bernadini moving sooner than Invasor was not a huge factor in that race, especially given that Invasor was not even all out late. It was probably a small negative, but not huge. I said it back then and I just said the same thing now.
There was more going on than just the timing of the move.

Feel free to disagree.

Maybe you should consult the fat charts? :)

[cbp]

Maybe you should consult the fat charts? :)

Aren't you also on record that the move was premature? I mean, outside of C, is there anyone who doesn't think the move was premature?

[cj]

Aren't you also on record that the move was premature? I mean, outside of C, is there anyone who doesn't think the move was premature?

What was that, a decade ago? I can barely remember who won last year's BC Classic.

[EMD4ME]

Dude, I don't know what you are talking about.

IMO Bernadini moving sooner than Invasor was not a huge factor in that race, especially given that Invasor was not even all out late. It was probably a small negative, but not huge. I said it back then and I just said the same thing now.
There was more going on than just the timing of the move.

Feel free to disagree.

I can't quote what CPB said. Please see Class's quote......

CPB, who were you referring to? Me or CJ? or both?

CJ,

was CPB's comment deleted? I don't see it anywhere.

[Grits]

Just a couple of notes on the Travers day rail.

Sarah Sis spent a lot of time on the rail in the Ballerina on Travers day. She ran poorly in her next start at CT. She bounced back with a win in the Raven Run at 17-1 this weekend running what was probably her best race. Not sure if you want to correlate that winning race to the Ballerina because there was a bad race in between, but it doesn't hurt the case that she had also run better than it looks in the Ballerina.

Earlier in the week, Watershed won for fun at KEE in a NW1 ALW. He was 2/5 and figured to win under any circumstances. But he also spent a lot of time on the rail Travers day. Again, not sure how much evidence that is for thinking the rail may not have been the best path Travers day, but it doesn't hurt the case and he looked great last week.

Class, thanks for the further review. :ThmbUp:

[burnsy]

What's your next task: finally realizing that Bernardino moved too soon in the Classic?

Seriously, or are you kidding? Invasor made his usual wide run and won that race for fun. At the time no one could out kick that horse, he lost once. The price he paid in the BCC was a laugher....all the way to the bank. If they had TRAKUS back then I bet he ran a number of feet further than Bernardini that day too just because of the turn he took outside the quitters. I have a hard time believing that Bernardini could beat Invasor at 10 furlongs, that race was too easy.

That was one of those, when I saw the odds.....I started to physically drool..... :)

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by cbp
So, he, finally, understood the trip? And he's now obfuscating biases?

Oopps :lol:

After further review, your obviously taking a shot at me.

Can't say much about you as you don't say much on here except for your attacks.

CJ was 100% right, you are the epitome of a TROLL.

You couldn't hold my jock strap when it comes to proper assessment of a bias or the proper assessment of a trip.

I'm embarrassed that I've ever driven over the bridge you troll under.

Go find a new home and enjoy your time with Gargamel, you Troll.

[classhandicapper]

Aren't you also on record that the move was premature? I mean, outside of C, is there anyone who doesn't think the move was premature?

Dude, you really need to learn to move on.

I'll tell you exactly what happened in that conversation years ago.

People were discussing the best horses of that period. I was pointing out the the virtues of Invasor who I thought, and still think, was an underrated horse still on the upside of his career when it ended. I was countered with the fact that Bernadini moved prematurely in the Classic and was better than Invasor that day.

I had no problem with the suggestion that Bernadini moved too soon.

What I am saying is that imo you are overrating the impact of a mildly premature move like that on dirt and that the move itself was partially an optical illusion. I also noted even back then that the inside paths were better that day and Invasor was well out on the track in his late rally.

So then, and even now, I don't think it's perfectly clear who was better that day. But I do know who won and I still think Invasor is underrated because he didn't put up a lot of fast figures early in his development and due to a few trouble trips.

You don't have to agree with that analysis. The game is about questions exactly like that. Anyone can see Bernadini moved early. It's how much it cost him relative to the winning margin, ease of victory, ground loss, and inside track condition that imo is a closer call.

What's next?

Are we going to argue Dr. Fager's trip against Successor?

Move on dude. We know you are good trip handicapper. Be a positive on the board instead of a negative. Give us some insights from 2015.

[Cratos]

On speed figures AP ran a similar race in the Travers as he's been running all along when you consider the relative trips. That's the consensus view because it's very obvious and logical. He was under a lot of pressure from Frosted (who is quite good IMO) so of course it took a little out of him.

The problem I had with that race is not the speed figure or that he got beat. It's that I am close to 100% certain that AP is a LOT faster than Frosted in terms of pure brilliance when he's at his best. Yet when challenged by Frosted, he couldn't shake him.

Why couldn't a very brilliant speed horse shake a horse that is more of a closer relatively early in the race when he's also the better horse to begin with?

If he shook him, got a little tired from the effort, ran a similar figure and got beat, I'd say he ran his race and got beat. But that fact that he couldn't shake him even though he has dusted faster horses without even hitting his top gear makes me think he was not at his best or something else was going on.

That was one of several reasons I initially suspected that the rail path may not have been the best path that day (not a major negative but kind of dead). Some riders were avoiding the rail on the backstretch and the turn that day. Why? A couple may have cut the corner and raced inside through the stretch, but some were staying WAY out on the track in the backstretch and purposely moving off the rail into more of the 2 path on the turn. Why?

I am tracking every single horse that raced inside that day for a significant portion of the race to see how they do next out. The subsequent evidence is not conclusive. A few horses jumped way up, but a few that I expected to run well actually regressed. It's not unusual to get mixed results like that, but you usually get a preponderance of evidence either supporting or refuting the initial observation. So far there is no preponderance, but there are more horses to come this week.
You made a colorful argument about AP's Travers defeat, but I am not buying it because AP took on a dual challenge in the stretch and that is what caused him to just miss by 3/4 of a length.

Also didn't Keen Ice win from the inside?

AP might not be as fast as Affirmed, but he have the same tenacity when he is challenged.

[EMD4ME]

You made a colorful argument about AP's Travers defeat, but I am not buying it because AP took on a dual challenge in the stretch and that is what caused him to just miss by 3/4 of a length.

Also didn't Keen Ice win from the inside?

AP might not be as fast as Affirmed, but he have the same tenacity when he is challenged.

Keen Ice was 3-4 wide under the stands, herded out 4 wide in the early part of the clubhouse turn, tucked under the herding horse to the 2 path for all of the backstretch, split horses at the 1/2 mile pole, was 2-3 wide from the 1/2 to the wire. Never ever ran on the rail....

[classhandicapper]

You made a colorful argument about AP's Travers defeat, but I am not buying it because AP took on a dual challenge in the stretch and that is what caused him to just miss by 3/4 of a length.

Also didn't Keen Ice win from the inside?

AP might not be as fast as Affirmed, but he have the same tenacity when he is challenged.

I agree that he was clearly best and would have won if he wasn't used hard putting away Frosted. I am arguing something else. I am arguing that if that rail path was not best (which IMO is a possibility) he would have won on a honest track despite putting away Frosted and was actually even better than many trip handicappers currently think. The "rail" is the question I am still asking.

Keen Ice was outside.

[classhandicapper]

Keen Ice was 3-4 wide under the stands, herded out 4 wide in the early part of the clubhouse turn, tucked under the herding horse to the 2 path for all of the backstretch, split horses at the 1/2 mile pole, was 2-3 wide from the 1/2 to the wire. Never ever ran on the rail....

You have some great notes.

How much time do you spend on a card? :lol:

I spend a lot of time on "some races", but my notes never get that detailed. I stick with the things I consider really relevant to the performance or I'd never get done.

[EMD4ME]

You have some great notes.

How much time do you spend on a card? :lol:

I spend a lot of time on "some races", but my notes never get that detailed. I stick with the things I consider really relevant to the performance or I'd never get done.

Seriously, if I was doing a race fresh, it takes me 2-3 hours for 1 race.

Thankfully, most of the work is done live.

Thanks Class.

[Cratos]

I agree that he was clearly best and would have won if he wasn't used hard putting away Frosted. I am arguing something else. I am arguing that if that rail path was not best (which IMO is a possibility) he would have won on a honest track despite putting away Frosted and was actually even better than many trip handicappers currently think. The "rail" is the question I am still asking.

Keen Ice was outside.
I wasn't sure about Keen Ice's stretch position from memory and thanks for giving the correct information.

However the problem with the "dead rail" hypothesis is twofold: first the race was run only .54 seconds off of a track record tying effort and secondly what is the trade off between the longer distance and the allegedly "dead rail."

AP if entered in the BCC this year might not win , but this is a horse coming off 6 consecutive G1 stake route races where he won 5 and came in second at 6 different racetracks of different surfaces and different configurations.

Therefore show me any other NA horse who can compare with the aforementioned.

[EMD4ME]

I wasn't sure about Keen Ice's stretch position from memory and thanks for giving the correct information.

However the problem with the "dead rail" is twofold: first the race was run only .54 seconds off of a track record tying effort and secondly what is the trade off between the longer distance and the allegedly "dead rail."

AP if entered in the BCC this year might not win , but this is a horse coming off 6 consecutive G1 stake route races where he won 5 and came in second at 6 different racetracks of different surfaces and different configurations.

Therefore show me any other NA horse who can compare with the aforementioned.

I thought the stakes and track was record was 2:00? :confused:

[Cratos]

I thought the stakes and track was record was 2:00? :confused:
You are correct; I should have posted "1.54" seconds.

[taxicab]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95261/american-pharoah-wows-in-santa-anita-work

Pharoah just keeps on rolling... and really fast.

A video will likely follow, somewhere today.

Indeed he does.......really,really fast.
I'll call your AP with a Shug star,and raise with Gary Stevens raving about Beholder after the PC......I really liked the part where he talked about her when she changed leads
I still don't know which one of these three monsters to go with.
Race of the century come Halloween don't ya know.

Honor Code: Wow!
By David Grening

Posted : 1hr 21mins ago

HONOR CODE, prepping for the Breeders' Cup Classic, just put in a brilliantly fast workout, going a half-mile -- on my watch -- in 46.14 seconds, out five-furlongs in 58.16, six furlongs in 1:11.07 and seven furlongs in 1:24.50. I took him from the half-mile pole. Colleague Mike Vesce took him from the five-furlong pole and said he went his first eighth in 13 seconds. So, if you factor that eighth in he went a mile in 1:37.50.


Stevens:
https://youtu.be/vBWqz2D3hJw

[Grits]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95285/beholder-alert-back-in-the-game

Taxicab, and the mare is taking it all in stride, this one, and the one at Keeneland. She's back to herself.

Fun times. ;)

[EMD4ME]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95285/beholder-alert-back-in-the-game

Taxicab, and the mare is taking it all in stride, this one, and the one at Keeneland. She's back to herself.

Fun times. ;)

I certainly hope she's 100%. For her and the race.

God, I wish Pletcher would shock us and say Liam's Map will now go in the BCC as well. The more the better.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

One of my biggest questions heading into this BC (as with any BC) is how the track is playing.

Santa Anita was nothing more than a paved highway the last 3 years.

Keeneland has been death for front end speed this entire meet thus far. There have been some dawdling paces in which even big time chalk on the front end has failed to close the deal. Will that continue, or will the track change/be changed for the BC?

Thursday and early Friday races next week will certainly be interesting to watch.

[Stillriledup]

One of my biggest questions heading into this BC (as with any BC) is how the track is playing.

Santa Anita was nothing more than a paved highway the last 3 years.

Keeneland has been death for front end speed this entire meet thus far. There have been some dawdling paces in which even big time chalk on the front end has failed to close the deal. Will that continue, or will the track change/be changed for the BC?

Thursday and early Friday races next week will certainly be interesting to watch.

Wasnt there a day at a recent BC in SA where the track was so speed favoring on Friday that they changed the track overnight and it was a little less speed favoring the next day? Peter miller won with a 200 dollar horse who went a million miles an hour on the front end and kept going, I think it might have been race 2 on the Friday card?

[thaskalos]

People are down on AP after the Travers as much as they were up on him after the Haskell.

I see the Travers as a better race BY FAR in terms of setting him up for the BC Classic.

In fact, I will go on record as saying that was exactly the type of race AP needed.

He may not win the BC Classic...but if he's physically sound, the Travers should help him PLENTY...and anyone who has been watching this game for any amount of time should feel the same way.
I don't quite understand what you mean here. WHY was the Travers "exactly the type of race AP needed", at this stage of his campaign? Was he a horse who was "rounding into form", and in need of a tough race to get him into razor-sharp condition...or was he an already super-sharp horse, who had to endure an already arduous 3-year-old campaign? Why wouldn't a romping victory in the Travers have been an even BETTER race for the Pharoah as he aims for the BC Classic?

Here is what I think:

Because the Pharoah has been remarkably consistent during his racing career...he has never had to prove how well he can rebound off a surprising loss. When an ultra-consistent horse like the Pharoah suffers the only surprising loss of his career, then there must at least be the suspicion that something is amiss with him, and we cannot automatically assume that this loss will "benefit" him going forward...especially when we take into account the circumstances surrounding the horse's racing campaign...and the dynamics of the race in which he was defeated. As I said before...a grueling race like the Travers might have been just the race needed by a horse who was gradually rounding into form...but the Pharoah was the ANTITHESIS of such a horse. The Pharoah was ALREADY a razor-sharp horse...who had already been asked to endure a grueling 3-year-old campaign. There must be a reason why these Triple Crown winners appear as infrequently as they do.

Of course...some posters might object and say that the Travers was NOT an atypical race for the Pharoah...and that he gave just as strong a performance in that race as he did in his prior starts. These posters have already commented on the lightening-quick middle fractions of the Travers...and on how courageous the Pharoah was in turning back Frosted's challenge down the stretch.

But I saw the race a little differently:

I saw Frosted and the Pharoah battling neck-in-neck the entire way, with Frosted taking the worst of it on the outside...and with only two lengths ultimately separating the two horses at the wire. And, IMO...beating Frosted by only two lengths while you have him racing outside of you in a speed duel the entire way is hardly a "Pharoah-like" performance.

I will be looking to bet AGAINST the Pharoah in the BC Classic.

[PaceAdvantage]

Easy races don't set horses up for tougher tasks down the road. Another romp ala the Haskell would have been counter-productive in my opinion.

That's all.

I'm not saying he's going to win the BCC. And as usual, I will likely bet against him as I have done all year long. However, to think the Travers was some indication that this horse is tailing off drastically or isn't as good as we all thought would be a mistake, in my opinion.

[thaskalos]

Easy races don't set horses up for tougher tasks down the road. Another romp ala the Haskell would have been counter-productive in my opinion.

That's all.

I'm not saying he's going to win the BCC. And as usual, I will likely bet against him as I have done all year long. However, to think the Travers was some indication that this horse is tailing off drastically or isn't as good as we all thought would be a mistake, in my opinion.

As I said...I disagree. As I survey the evidence before me...I see no reason to believe that his race in the Travers could be a benefit to the Pharoah as he heads to the Classic. I predict further decline...and, perhaps...an out-of-the-money finish.

[surfdog89]

I Agree with you Pace........AP will likely bring his A Game to the Classic

[cbp]

But I saw the race a little differently:

I saw Frosted and the Pharoah battling neck-in-neck the entire way, with Frosted taking the worst of it on the outside...and with only two lengths ultimately separating the two horses at the wire. And, IMO...beating Frosted by only two lengths while you have him racing outside of you in a speed duel the entire way is hardly a "Pharoah-like" performance.

I will be looking to bet AGAINST the Pharoah in the BC Classic.

On the dirt, typically, when you engage a pacesetter, it's on the outside. No real advantage either way. But I agree with you, and I've written earlier, that a tough race benefits a horse that needs something more to get fit; not a horse that has had a hard campaign. Espinosa needlessly abused AP in the Travers. The race hurt rather than helped him for the BC. He should've won the Travers and done so without getting gutted. He needs a much smarter ride in the BC. This is not a super horse and shouldn't be ridden that way.

[thaskalos]

On the dirt, typically, when you engage a pacesetter, it's on the outside. No real advantage either way. But I agree with you, and I've written earlier, that a tough race benefits a horse that needs something more to get fit; not a horse that has had a hard campaign. Espinosa needlessly abused AP in the Travers. The race hurt rather than helped him for the BC. He should've won the Travers and done so without getting gutted. He needs a much smarter ride in the BC. This is not a super horse and shouldn't be ridden that way.
I disagree...and I'll gladly tell you why:

We are not talking about two horses of equal quality here. If the two horses are of equal ability...then, yes, the outside trip does not figure to be such a noticeable obstruction. But we are talking here about two horses with a great deal of difference between them, ability-wise. Plus...the Pharoah BELONGED on the lead...whereas Frosted was taken out of his element in order to engage the Pharoah at such an early stage in the race. If the torrid middle fractions caused the Pharoah to get "gutted"...then, what effect could these lightening-quick fractions be expected to have on a horse who was unaccustomed to being as close to the early pace as he found himself in the Travers?

Would such a horse still be only two lengths behind the vastly superior Pharoah at the wire...if the Pharoah gave his customary performance in that race?

[cbp]

Frosted was primed for the race. Clearly, this wasn't the same horse that fell on its face in the Belmont. I'm not buying that the different running style worked against him, however. Frosted got a comparable trip to AP: he just wasn't good enough.

I also think the early fractions weren't what gutted AP, as all the horses in the race had to ensure them. What did AP in, IMO, was going after Frosted too soon. Espinosa panicked, thinking Frosted was the horse to beat, went after him all out entering the stretch and had nothing for the suckup Keen Ice. If he lets Frosted do his thing and goes after him past midstretch, he not only blows by him and takes Keen Ice out of the equation, he also uses his horse less. A lot easier to recover from an intelligent trip.

[thaskalos]

Frosted was primed for the race. Clearly, this wasn't the same horse that fell on its face in the Belmont. I'm not buying that the different running style worked against him, however. Frosted got a comparable trip to AP: he just wasn't good enough.

I also think the early fractions weren't what gutted AP, as all the horses in the race had to ensure them. What did AP in, IMO, was going after Frosted too soon. Espinosa panicked, thinking Frosted was the horse to beat, went after him all out entering the stretch and had nothing for the suckup Keen Ice. If he lets Frosted do his thing and goes after him past midstretch, he not only blows by him and takes Keen Ice out of the equation, he also uses his horse less.
I will not belabor the point...because it's clear that there is a great philosophical divide between us. I'll just say that Frosted was not SUPPOSED to get a "comparable trip to AP" in that race. Frosted runs best when he is allowed to settle off the pace...and an early push like the one exhibited by Frosted was more detrimental to him than it was to a horse like AP...who customarily runs on or close to the early pace.

And another thing:

It's one thing to endure the torrid fractions while battling on the lead...and another thing altogether to endure them while you are somewhere in the back of the pack. All the horses in that race did NOT endure those fractions in the same way.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

As I said...I disagree. As I survey the evidence before me...I see no reason to believe that his race in the Travers could be a benefit to the Pharoah as he heads to the Classic. I predict further decline...and, perhaps...an out-of-the-money finish.

Thask, couldn't agree more. I certainly hope AP stays healthy and runs a good race, but history tells us he would be a horrible bet. By my count, 1990 was the last time the Derby winner won the BC Classic (Unbridled), and only a handful of Classic winners (all Belmont Stakes) have won the BC Classic since 1994.

AP is a nice horse, but he's not the only nice horse entered in the race, and....he ain't no Unbridled.

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted has had some poor finishes, but he is one of the toughest horses around in the part of the race where they dueled.

American Pharoah seems to be a horse whose brilliance is dulled a lot after duel. All horses are, but it's a sharp contrast.

The campaign and the training regimen are great signs IMO. I think Baffert legitimately feels that this is one of the best that he's handled. Plenty of incentive and opportunity to have retired earlier. I expect AP to be AP, with no significant decline.

I don't think it's worth quibbling over the Haskel's place as a form-marker. This horse is mechanically about as perfect as can be, and he's in a fresh new form cycle by now. It was a reality check for sure, for people like Baffert who think of such things, but I don't see it as any kind of obvious significance.

If he gets a patient ride and lets others do the dirty work, he should run as brilliantly as most others, and have a head start on most others. I can't tell anything about the race without studying the actual field, but you'd have to guess that something like a crazy premature duel with someone like Smooth Roller or Frosted(not really supposed to be nearly as involved early as in the Haskel) would be his main danger of not hitting the board.

[cj]

....he ain't no Unbridled.

Wow, just wow. Now he isn't even comparable to Unbridled? Seriously?

I like to pick apart favorites as much as anyone, but saying he isn't comparable to a horse that won 8-24 lifetime with half his wins coming around one turn is a bit much in my opinion.

[cbp]

I will not belabor the point...because it's clear that there is a great philosophical divide between us. I'll just say that Frosted was not SUPPOSED to get a "comparable trip to AP" in that race. Frosted runs best when he is allowed to settle off the pace...and an early push like the one exhibited by Frosted was more detrimental to him than it was to a horse like AP...who customarily runs on or close to the early pace.

And another thing:

It's one thing to endure the torrid fractions while battling on the lead...and another thing altogether to endure them while you are somewhere in the back of the pack. All the horses in that race did NOT endure those fractions in the same way.


Frosted got the garden off the pace setup in the BEL and fell on his face. They sent him; he ran better. Wasted enough text on him.

As for the pace taking its toll: only 3 horses were around at the wire and I believe they came home in 26+ (from memory). So, the ONLY horse capable of passing/gaining ground in a 26+ split, that was in that race, is Keen Ice? This sort of indicates that the earlier splits took their toll.

[Cratos]

What am I missing in this debate about American Pharoah’s not being prepared to run in the BCC?

There is simply nothing because he is an animal and not a machine. Secretariat loss to Onion in the Whitney and came back in the Marlboro Cup and ran a world record time for the 1-1/8m distance. Affirmed loss 5 straight between the end of his 3yo season and the start of his 4yo campaign; yet by the end of his 4yo season he was en route to HOTY.

I will not bet American Pharoah in this year’s BCC because his odds will be too low for me, but if the “racing gods” allow the betting public to be foolish and allow him to go off at odds of 3-1 or better I will have more than a few wooden nickels on him.

I am not going to argue the Travers anymore because everyone is entitled to their interpretation of that race and mine is that it helped him more than it hurt him.

[Maximillion]

We are not talking about two horses of equal quality here. But we are talking here about two horses with a great deal ofas difference between them, ability-wise.

Would such a horse still be only two lengths behind the vastly superior Pharoah at the wire...if the Pharoah gave his customary performance in that race?

This seems to be the popular opinion,and this is what I thought prior to the Travers....but I have changed my mind.

I dont think there was anything "wrong" with AP in the Travers, other than the weird way that race played out.Frosted left me with the impression that he was much better (or had gotten better) than I had thought previously.

I disagree that there is a huge gap in the talent between them at this point-but i could easily be wrong.

[ronsmac]

What am I missing in this debate about American Pharoah’s not being prepared to run in the BCC?

There is simply nothing because he is an animal and not a machine. Secretariat loss to Onion in the Whitney and came back in the Marlboro Cup and ran a world record time for the 1-1/8m distance. Affirmed loss 5 straight between the end of his 3yo season and the start of his 4yo campaign; yet by the end of his 4yo season he was en route to HOTY.

I will not bet American Pharoah in this year’s BCC because his odds will be too low for me, but if the “racing gods” allow the betting public to be foolish and allow him to go off at odds of 3-1 or better I will have more than a few wooden nickels on him.

I am not going to argue the Travers anymore because everyone is entitled to their interpretation of that race and mine is that it helped him more than it hurt him.
If AP somehow went of at 3-1, he would have no chance to win.

[classhandicapper]

If you look at the internal fractions, the horses that were running quickest in the middle of the race were AP, Frosted, and Keen Ice. However, in watching the race, there may have been a period between calls when Frosted and AP drew off by a little more than reflected in the official chart. So it may have been a little hotter for them than it looks.

Honestly though, I think the whole inside/outside and pace debate is moot if the rail path (where AP was on the turn and into the stretch) was mildly inferior to the 2 and 3 path as I suspect. Dueling on an inferior path is clearly way tougher than anything anyone else in that race did. It's a question of the degree of confidence you have in evaluating the rail on that day. Some people think the rail was fine. Some think it changed after some midday track maintenance. It's not totally clear, but I have some evidence that the rail was not ideal that day even though it was not death. So I am going to have a really tough time tossing AP at any price. I'm going to have to at least use him with whoever I determine is good value.

[thaskalos]

The subjective nature of the handicapping process is the best thing about it...IMO. Without it...there would be no great bets...and no stimulating conversations.

[Cratos]

If you look at the internal fractions, the horses that were running quickest in the middle of the race were AP, Frosted, and Keen Ice. However, in watching the race, there may have been a period between calls when Frosted and AP drew off by a little more than reflected in the official chart. So it may have been a little hotter for them than it looks.

Honestly though, I think the whole inside/outside and pace debate is moot if the rail path (where AP was on the turn and into the stretch) was mildly inferior to the 2 and 3 path as I suspect. Dueling on an inferior path is clearly way tougher than anything anyone else in that race did. It's a question of the degree of confidence you have in evaluating the rail on that day. Some people think the rail was fine. Some think it changed after some midday track maintenance. It's not totally clear, but I have some evidence that the rail was not ideal that day even though it was not death. So I am going to have a really tough time tossing AP at any price. I'm going to have to at least use him with whoever I determine is good value.

Check the air density and the humidity was above average on August 29, the day that the Travers was run.

Therefore it would be good to check the air drag coefficient.

[raybo]

If AP somehow went of at 3-1, he would have no chance to win.

So, I assume you are saying that those who are betting big, are going to be betting on horses other than AP, because he has no chance of winning, for some reason or other that I can't imagine (it is unfathomable for me to think that he has "no" chance of winning the race, because every horse in the race has "some" chance of winning)? Or, could the 3/1 odds be the result of people betting big on other horses in order to elevate AP's odds (who they truly think has the best chance of winning)? Don't forget that the Classic is a huge betting race, which includes lots of "dumb" money being thrown around, which would make it possible for AP to go off at higher odds than expected by the general public (and obviously by you). Doubtful, but IMO, possible. There should be lots of money on AP just because he has the name and the Triple Crown under his belt. But, just because his odds are 3/1 does not necessarily mean he is "dead on the board" due to the "smart" bettors ignoring him. Of course, if he is even or below, he'll not get any win money from me, but I'll surely have him on top of at least one or more of my superfecta tickets, regardless of his gate odds.

[Cratos]

If AP somehow went of at 3-1, he would have no chance to win.
You could be right, but if that "3-1" should appear as closing odds I will depart with more than a few "Benjamins"

I had the opportunity to live such experience when Honor Code went off at 7-2 odds in the Whitney this year at Saratoga after his Met win; sometimes you get lucky.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Check the air density and the humidity was above average on August 29, the day that the Travers was run.

Therefore it would be good to check the air drag coefficient.

Damn right. Temperature, humidity, wind, and air drag coefficient will be the deciding factors in this year's Breeders Cup Classic.

Hell with class, ability, training, track variant, pace, trainers, jockeys, owners, past performances, record against others in the race, distance opportunity or limitations, pedigree, and a myriad of other "earthy" factors..., the air should, and will be our deciding factor above all.

[ronsmac]

You could be right, but if that "3-1" should appear as closing odds I will depart with more than a few "Benjamins"

I had the opportunity to live such experience when Honor Code went off at 7-2 odds in the Whitney this year at Saratoga after his Met win; sometimes you get lucky.Some disagree, but with a horse who's a tc winner is lone speed and still goes at 3-1, that would mean the barn, their friends and family, all the whales were avoiding him. I consider that a bad sign. Luckily you won't have to worry, he probably goes off at 6/5.

[Cratos]

Damn right. Temperature, humidity, wind, and air drag coefficient will be the deciding factors in this year's Breeders Cup Classic.

Hell with class, ability, training, track variant, pace, trainers, jockeys, owners, past performances, record against others in the race, distance opportunity or limitations, pedigree, and a myriad of other "earthy" factors..., the air should, and will be our deciding factor above all.
If you believe that, it is okay, but you I think you should make a distinction between the variables which are non-parametric and the ones which are parametric in your analytics before wagering.

However we all should arrive at our own wagering decisions.

[EMD4ME]

The subjective nature of the handicapping process is the best thing about it...IMO. Without it...there would be no great bets...and no stimulating conversations.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

That's why I love this game.

[EMD4ME]

Pre Entries are out. 10 horse field in Classic. Without looking at PPS yet, looks like ZERO speed in race.

AP 8/5 early.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95287/200-horses-pre-entered-for-32nd-breeders-cup

[Spalding No!]

Plus...the Pharoah BELONGED on the lead...whereas Frosted was taken out of his element in order to engage the Pharoah at such an early stage in the race. If the torrid middle fractions caused the Pharoah to get "gutted"...then, what effect could these lightening-quick fractions be expected to have on a horse who was unaccustomed to being as close to the early pace as he found himself in the Travers?
Was Frosted that unaccustomed to the front end? Certainly seemed handy early at Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

[Spalding No!]

What am I missing in this debate about American Pharoah’s not being prepared to run in the BCC?
Comparison to horses that raced 40 years ago aside, the fact that he hasn't run since late August is one piece of the puzzle.

[EMD4ME]

After looking at the pre entries, seeing Liam's Map leave for "curious reasons" AND Beholder having a fever for a day, I see the writing on the wall.

AP wires in 25 50 115 1393 203 3/5 and uninformed "fans" across the world say he's awesome, he's amazing, while I puke in the Aqueduct stands, knowing in my heart that he's an over rated lucky horse, in the right place, in the right time, with super circumstantial luck.

With that said, I'm betting Tonalist and not looking back. In Pick 6's and Pick 4's, Beholder and Keen Ice are the B's. I'll know more when the offical pp's are out, track trends are obvious.

[EMD4ME]

Was Frosted that unaccustomed to the front end? Certainly seemed handy early at Aqueduct and Gulfstream.

I'll never forget his race at GP. He had an AWESOME middle half and of course floundered in the stretch. He also had surgery after the race........I truly hope he guns to the lead in an attempt to steal it.......

That way AP and Beholder make mid race moves and set up Tonalist.

[Tall One]

I dont think there was anything "wrong" with AP in the Travers, other than the weird way that race played out.Frosted left me with the impression that he was much better (or had gotten better) than I had thought previously.

I disagree that there is a huge gap in the talent between them at this point-but i could easily be wrong.


I think both are where the connections want them to be. Imo, AP was pretty keyed up that day, noticeable at the gate, and the camera angle on the CH turn. Regarding Frosted, I think he got just as much out of the race as AP and his win in Philly could support it.

I like what Cratos noted about considering the humidity Travers Day. I know a few of you were there, was it a warmer day? That said, we're enjoying the "Indian Summer" right now, but it's supposed to turn this weekend. We'll see.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Wow, just wow. Now he isn't even comparable to Unbridled? Seriously?

I like to pick apart favorites as much as anyone, but saying he isn't comparable to a horse that won 8-24 lifetime with half his wins coming around one turn is a bit much in my opinion.

There's more to judging a horse than lifetime records and speed figures.

IMHO, Unbridled represents the last of G1 horses that could compete in the Classics and turn around and be a force to reckon with in the fall - like Ferdinand, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Easy Goer. Unbridled was a definite "In and Outer" and a deep closer, but when he showed up he was a G1 horse - no doubt about it. His Derby win is as visually impressive as any horse in the last 75 years, with the exceptions of Secretariat and Whirlaway. Again, IMHO.

Since 1990 there have been horses that have put together decent Triple Crown campaigns, and horses that have put together decent performances in the G1 routes for older horses, including the Breeder's Cup Classic. And very that have done both - Curlin being the only one I can think of off the top of my head.

AP does get points for his Triple Crown and his consistency. But racing against the likes of G2 horses like Frosted (who may be a late bloomer) and Keen Ice (another possible late bloomer) doesn't impress me that much, and I have not been "blown away" by any of his wins. We'll see what he's made of in 10 days. Based on recent history of Triple Crown runners, a two month layoff going into a 10 furlong race on dirt, and his Beyers compared to other entrants, a mid-pack finish is more likely than not.

If, OTH, AP crushes the field with ease, then I'll man up and admit I was wrong. It won't be the first time.....

[cj]

There's more to judging a horse than lifetime records and speed figures.

IMHO, Unbridled represents the last of G1 horses that could compete in the Classics and turn around and be a force to reckon with in the fall - like Ferdinand, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Easy Goer. Unbridled was a definite "In and Outer" and a deep closer, but when he showed up he was a G1 horse - no doubt about it. His Derby win is as visually impressive as any horse in the last 75 years, with the exceptions of Secretariat and Whirlaway. Again, IMHO.

Since 1990 there have been horses that have put together decent Triple Crown campaigns, and horses that have put together decent performances in the G1 routes for older horses, including the Breeder's Cup Classic. And very that have done both - Curlin being the only one I can think of off the top of my head.

AP does get points for his Triple Crown and his consistency. But racing against the likes of G2 horses like Frosted (who may be a late bloomer) and Keen Ice (another possible late bloomer) doesn't impress me that much, and I have not been "blown away" by any of his wins. We'll see what he's made of in 10 days. Based on recent history of Triple Crown runners, a two month layoff going into a 10 furlong race on dirt, and his Beyers compared to other entrants, a mid-pack finish is more likely than not.

If, OTH, AP crushes the field with ease, then I'll man up and admit I was wrong. It won't be the first time.....

I understand your point, but using Unbridled is going to far for me. Didn't he lose the Super Derby to some G3 type horse? Who won his Belmont, Go and Go? At least AP was beating G2 horses as you call them, not losing to G3 horses like that. Unbridled won the Classic. Wow. He beat Rhythm and Ibn Bey...come on. That is far from impressive to me.

It's all just opinion though, ours just differ in this case.

[taxicab]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/95261/american-pharoah-wows-in-santa-anita-work

Pharoah just keeps on rolling... and really fast.

A video will likely follow, somewhere today.
This horse covers ground so effortlessly:

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/american-pharoah-wows-in-breeders-cup-workout/?VideoCategoryId=0

[taxicab]

AP's entire work from 10/20:

https://youtu.be/cqV6Bc26QqI

[depalma113]

Thask, couldn't agree more. I certainly hope AP stays healthy and runs a good race, but history tells us he would be a horrible bet. By my count, 1990 was the last time the Derby winner won the BC Classic (Unbridled), and only a handful of Classic winners (all Belmont Stakes) have won the BC Classic since 1994.

Curlin didn't win the Belmont.

[menifee]

Regardless of your opinions of the horses, you have to admit that Beholder and AP will be underlays in this race. They both have devoted fan groups that will pound them at the windows and no horse should be less than 3-1 in the Classic.

Beholder: Major questions regarding her ability to ship, her ability to get the distance against these type of horses and she has never faced horses of this quality. Yes, she dominated the Pacific Classic, but that was an extremely, extremely weak rendition of that race. GIII quality field.

AP: I may be in the minority, but I thought the defection of Liam's Map actually hurt this horse. He seems to be able to relax when he has a target. But if he is inside of horses and another quality horse challenges him early on the lead (like Frosted in the Travers) he does not run his best race. If you look at this horse's pps, he has either won with easy leads (Belmont, Preakness, Rebel) or won tracking on the outside of speed (Haskell, Derby, Arkansas). Finally, I have no doubt that a mile and a quarter is this horse's worst distance. He flattened out in the Travers. I can understand that was a result of pace But he actually flattened out in the Derby as well. His final quarter was 26.52. If he has to run any form of legitimate fraction in a race longer than a mile and an eighth, he's just not as effective. There is a big chasm between a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter.

The race sets up for Tonalist - I'm just concerned his jockey will have him 20 lengths back again.

[Track Phantom]

Unfortunately for me, the Classic this year is almost unbettable.

There is NO speed in the race that will keep American Pharoah honest. NONE.

Beholder has been trained to sit just off the speed ever since the BC Distaff of 2013. If you watch most of her races recently, they are doing everything they can to restrain her early. I would be very surprised if Mandella/Stevens decides to roll right up with AP early unless they feel they have to change their tactics to win the race (which they might just conclude). I actually think they'll sit just behind him and wait for the far turn and that will again allow AP to be very comfortable for most of the race.

Frosted already tried taking the starch out of AP. They won't do it again.

Smooth Roller showed some tracking speed in the Awesome Again but it is highly likely the connections will rate and take their chance in the later stages.

Everyone else will be a stone-cold closer. How does AP lose in this scenario? From a betting standpoint, at least for me, this sucks. AP has had absolute DREAM trips in so many of his races. With Liam's Map in the Classic, it was a two-fisted betting orgy against AP. Now, it really, really feels like a merry-go-round.

It would take someone to decide to go after AP early enough to keep him honest. Does anyone think there is such a horse? Does it come down to Beholder moving early on him? Could they try and outrun him for the lead?

Convincing myself of these things just feels like grasping at straws in order to beat a 7-5 favorite.

[Stillriledup]

Unfortunately for me, the Classic this year is almost unbettable.

There is NO speed in the race that will keep American Pharoah honest. NONE.

Beholder has been trained to sit just off the speed ever since the BC Distaff of 2013. If you watch most of her races recently, they are doing everything they can to restrain her early. I would be very surprised if Mandella/Stevens decides to roll right up with AP early unless they feel they have to change their tactics to win the race (which they might just conclude). I actually think they'll sit just behind him and wait for the far turn and that will again allow AP to be very comfortable for most of the race.

Frosted already tried taking the starch out of AP. They won't do it again.

Smooth Roller showed some tracking speed in the Awesome Again but it is highly likely the connections will rate and take their chance in the later stages.

Everyone else will be a stone-cold closer. How does AP lose in this scenario? From a betting standpoint, at least for me, this sucks. AP has had absolute DREAM trips in so many of his races. With Liam's Map in the Classic, it was a two-fisted betting orgy against AP. Now, it really, really feels like a merry-go-round.

It would take someone to decide to go after AP early enough to keep him honest. Does anyone think there is such a horse? Does it come down to Beholder moving early on him? Could they try and outrun him for the lead?

Convincing myself of these things just feels like grasping at straws in order to beat a 7-5 favorite.

This could be a problem. Nobody has considered a rabbit? Is the purse not big enough?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Curlin didn't win the Belmont.

My bad. He won the Preakness, and was second in the Belmont. I always get that confused. Toss in his third in the Derby, and Curlin is the exception to the rule for horses that ran well in the Triple Crown, and then won the Breeder's Cup - since 1990.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I understand your point, but using Unbridled is going to far for me. Didn't he lose the Super Derby to some G3 type horse? Who won his Belmont, Go and Go? At least AP was beating G2 horses as you call them, not losing to G3 horses like that. Unbridled won the Classic. Wow. He beat Rhythm and Ibn Bey...come on. That is far from impressive to me.

It's all just opinion though, ours just differ in this case.

Unbridled lost to Home at Last in the Super Derby. Evidence he didn't always fire his best shot every race. But along the way to establishing himself as a decent sire who ran 3rd in the Breeders Cup Classic as a four year old, he also beat Summer Squall, Pleasant Tap, and Housebuster, which were G1 horses. Rhythm, IIRC was a two year old champ. Ibn Bey may not have been much on paper outside of his Breeders Cup run, but I liked him enough to bet him that day - with a saver Q with Unbridled, the only horse I thought could beat 'em.

Perhaps our difference of opinion centers around a horse's total career. I give more credit to horses who can perform well early as 3 YOs, and later in the fall and at four. It's kind of like an athlete who seems great in high school, then college and then the pros. We'll find out now if AP can make the jump to the Pros, and if he can repeat the accomplishments of Curlin - or Unbridled....or, if he's a Tim Tebow....

[EMD4ME]

Unfortunately for me, the Classic this year is almost unbettable.

There is NO speed in the race that will keep American Pharoah honest. NONE.

Beholder has been trained to sit just off the speed ever since the BC Distaff of 2013. If you watch most of her races recently, they are doing everything they can to restrain her early. I would be very surprised if Mandella/Stevens decides to roll right up with AP early unless they feel they have to change their tactics to win the race (which they might just conclude). I actually think they'll sit just behind him and wait for the far turn and that will again allow AP to be very comfortable for most of the race.

Frosted already tried taking the starch out of AP. They won't do it again.

Smooth Roller showed some tracking speed in the Awesome Again but it is highly likely the connections will rate and take their chance in the later stages.

Everyone else will be a stone-cold closer. How does AP lose in this scenario? From a betting standpoint, at least for me, this sucks. AP has had absolute DREAM trips in so many of his races. With Liam's Map in the Classic, it was a two-fisted betting orgy against AP. Now, it really, really feels like a merry-go-round.

It would take someone to decide to go after AP early enough to keep him honest. Does anyone think there is such a horse? Does it come down to Beholder moving early on him? Could they try and outrun him for the lead?

Convincing myself of these things just feels like grasping at straws in order to beat a 7-5 favorite.

I concur 100%

My belief is that Tonalist will continue to show his tactical Q2 natural speed (except for the Whitney where JV totally fell asleep & allowed HC the rail and better position early) which will allow him to be close (maybe 5 back after a 1/2).

What I don't want to happen is a slow 1st quarter and then a very good 2nd quarter in this race. That will cause another poorly timed ride by JV as I see him pumping and wasting energy in the 2nd quarter and playing chase the leader the rest of the way.


If I'm in Tonalist's camp, put the Blinkers On, ignore the rest of the field, run your race and don't worry what the other guys do. Yes, JV will need to make some game time decisions right after the break but I truly believe he can stalk a slow AP pace and run him down fair and square in the lane AND hold off HC.

Regardless, so much can go wrong when you have a lone speed to catch. Which is annoying beyond belief when it comes to a $5,000,000 race. Not one of the connections thought about this as entries came about?

There wasn't overflow here. There's not 1 speed horse in someone's stable that is BC eligible to be used as a rabbit?

Maybe the connections of the other horses don't fear AP being loose?

[cj]

Wasnt there a day at a recent BC in SA where the track was so speed favoring on Friday that they changed the track overnight and it was a little less speed favoring the next day? Peter miller won with a 200 dollar horse who went a million miles an hour on the front end and kept going, I think it might have been race 2 on the Friday card?

It was really bad on Friday, and Saturday wasn't just less speed favoring, I'd argue it favored closers.

[Robert Fischer]

Smooth Roller showed some tracking speed in the Awesome Again but it is highly likely the connections will rate and take their chance in the later stages.

Smooth Roller's connections and jockey should absolutely love the idea of sitting 2nd or 3rd pony on the merry-go-round and trying to get a 'smooth' trip to finish in the top 4 for a share of the purse.

However, there is a bit of an 'over-hype' regarding Smooth Roller. It is not impossible that if the horse is in fact capable, that we will see a bid at some point before the far turn, assuming that AP is setting a moderate/leisurely pace.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean much.

[classhandicapper]

It was really bad on Friday, and Saturday wasn't just less speed favoring, I'd argue it favored closers.


I think what happened on Saturday was that everyone was talking about the speed favoring track on Friday and the riders got way more aggressive on Saturday when it wasn't carrying speed as well.

[classhandicapper]

People were conceding the Travers to AP because there wasn't much speed in the race and he wound up getting used so hard he lost. He's faster than any of these other horses in the Classic. So going after him hard early would probably be foolish, but IMO there's no way he walks on the lead. He's going to have to repulse multiple serious challenges from solid Grade 1 horses to win.

Last year was a little different. Some people didn't think Bayern could go that far, one of the speeds got eliminated at the start, and another major contender got roughed up and was probably further behind that usual. So the race was less competitive than it might have been. That's not normal for a race of this quality with horses like Beholder in the race.

[cj]

I think what happened on Saturday was that everyone was talking about the speed favoring track on Friday and the riders got way more aggressive on Saturday when it wasn't carrying speed as well.

I'm sure that was part of it.

[cj]

I think what happened on Saturday was that everyone was talking about the speed favoring track on Friday and the riders got way more aggressive on Saturday when it wasn't carrying speed as well.

Some are just trying to come up with ready made excuses in case he wins.

[classhandicapper]

Some are just trying to come up with ready made excuses in case he wins.

Yeah, I was beginning to sense that also. :lol:

It's still a great race and he's going to have to run really well to win. Besides, even if there was more speed in the race, he has already demonstrated he can sit off it and win.

I'm trying to figure out how I can use him at the very short price (which I don't want to do) and still have good value on my ticket.

[cj]

Yeah, I was beginning to sense that also. :lol:

It's still a great race and he's going to have to run really well to win. Besides, even if there was more speed in the race, he has already demonstrated he can sit off it and win.

I'm trying to figure out how I can use him at the very short price (which I don't want to do) and still have good value on my ticket.

Right, exactly. People act like he is some need the lead horse. I think his Travers loss was largely because he drew inside and was basically forced to lead and be pressured. If he draws outside I think he wins.

[cbp]

Right, exactly. People act like he is some need the lead horse. I think his Travers loss was largely because he drew inside and was basically forced to lead and be pressured. If he draws outside I think he wins.
Not all people. Say he draws outside. At this point, he figures to be the speed. If so, he'll need to get inside at some point. If some horse guns from the gate, AP sits a trip. More likely, AP defaults to the lead, then some horse tests him to his outside. If I had a horse in the race, I have AP lead early, then run at him entering the backstretch. Hard to believe this horse can't relax inside of a horse

[cj]

Not all people. Say he draws outside. At this point, he figures to be the speed. If so, he'll need to get inside at some point. If some horse guns from the gate, AP sits a trip. More likely, AP defaults to the lead, then some horse tests him to his outside. If I had a horse in the race, I have AP lead early, then run at him entering the backstretch. Hard to believe this horse can't relax inside of a horse

All I'm saying is outside was better, it almost always is for a horse with speed. What would have happened in that case is anyone's guess. I have mine, you have yours. We'll never know.

[thaskalos]

Some are just trying to come up with ready made excuses in case he wins.
Just as some others have been busy coming up with excuses for why he lost.

[classhandicapper]

Just as some others have been busy coming up with excuses for why he lost.

In my case I am trying to figure out how well he actually ran in the Travers so I know what the appropriate odds are for the Classic. I am WAY less concerned about the race development in the Classic because imo it won't be extreme and he'll be able to handle any mild variations around neutral.

[cj]

Just as some others have been busy coming up with excuses for why he lost.

I think he was beaten fair and square. I just don't think it was the tragic loss some made it out to be and suddenly want to declare he is like a G2/G3 kind of horse. I think he ran well. Keen Ice is being underrated IMO, and I said so before the Travers.

[classhandicapper]

I think he was beaten fair and square. I just don't think it was the tragic loss some made it out to be and suddenly want to declare he is like a G2/G3 kind of horse. I think he ran well. Keen Ice is being underrated IMO, and I said so before the Travers.

IMO, the whole 3yo division is being underrated.

It wouldn't shock me in the least if they had a decent to good showing in the Classic without a peak Dortmund and Firing Line even being in the race.

[thaskalos]

I think he was beaten fair and square. I just don't think it was the tragic loss some made it out to be and suddenly want to declare he is like a G2/G3 kind of horse. I think he ran well. Keen Ice is being underrated IMO, and I said so before the Travers.
I agree...he lost fair and square. But I keep reading here that Espinoza's error in judgement was to blame...or that the rail might not have been the place to be in that race.

The Pharoah wasn't good enough in that race...and he lost. Espinoza rode him as if he were the superstar horse that he was widely considered to be at that time...and, who could blame him? The horse was being mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat, for heaven's sake...and, when you are riding a truly elite horse...it's unlikely that you will consider a horse like Frosted to be a serious threat to your chances of winning.

Will the Phoroah win the Classic? I say, No...but I find that I am wrong about 70% of the time. One thing is certain, though. If I am indeed wrong...then you will never see me complain that the Pharoah won the race simply because he "stole it", due to the lack of other quality early speed in that race. With a horse like Beholder closely tracking you...you don't win a mile and a quarter race unless you EARN that victory.

This is a great race coming up...and lame excuses don't do it justice, IMO.

[cbp]

Most races aren't won fair and square. I don't think the best horse won the Travers. The horse with the easiest trip of the top 3 won the Travers. I have nothing personal invested with any of these horses. I just objectively watch races and try to determine how the results might've been different. A more Dominguez like ride on AP wins the Travers. This isn't an excuse for AP and it doesn't mean that Espinosa understands or can put into effect, that type of ride. When a horse can win a race with a different ride, it's of note to me. Simple as that

[classhandicapper]

I agree...he lost fair and square. But I keep reading here that Espinoza's error in judgement was to blame...or that the rail might not have been the place to be in that race.

The Pharoah wasn't good enough in that race...and he lost. Espinoza rode him as if he were the superstar horse that he was widely considered to be at that time...and, who could blame him? The horse was being mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat, for heaven's sake...and, when you are riding a truly elite horse...it's unlikely that you will consider a horse like Frosted to be a serious threat to your chances of winning.

Will the Phoroah win the Classic? I say, No...but I find that I am wrong about 70% of the time. One thing is certain, though. If I am indeed wrong...then you will never see me complain that the Pharoah won the race simply because he "stole it", due to the lack of other quality early speed in that race. With a horse like Beholder closely tracking you...you don't win a mile and a quarter race unless you EARN that victory.

This is a great race coming up...and lame excuses don't do it justice, IMO.

Did he get beat fair and square?

Of course!

But what's being discussed here is how well he ran relative to the rest of that Travers group and ultimately how that stacks up against the Classic field.

The idea is to figure out how well he ran that day. In order to do that, you HAVE TO consider all aspects of his trip. That includes how much pressure he was under, which paths were best, which path he raced on etc... and how that compares to the other horses and what might be considered a more neutral trip.

That's not making an excuse for the horse because you are a fan.

That's saying that he was better than the winner that day and perhaps a lot better than the winner that day if the rail path was indeed a bit off. He was used hard putting away Frosted and may have been on an inferior path while doing it. So you should consider that in your appraisal of his fair odds in the Classic where a trip like that is not as likely given that he is rateable and we can assume an honest racetrack until we see otherwise.

[thaskalos]

Most races aren't won fair and square. I don't think the best horse won the Travers. The horse with the easiest trip of the top 3 won the Travers. I have nothing personal invested with any of these horses. I just objectively watch races and try to determine how the results might've been different. A more Dominguez like ride on AP wins the Travers. This isn't an excuse for AP and it doesn't mean that Espinosa understands or can put into effect, that type of ride. When a horse can win a race with a different ride, it's of note to me. Simple as that
Espinoza thought that he was on a superstar horse...which is what the Pharoah was considered to be at that time. Superstar horses are sometimes riden aggressively...just as Secretariat was...when he -- a confirmed stretch runner -- was asked to go wire-to-wire in the Belmont Stakes. The Pharoah went to the lead in the Travers...and traveled a leisurely half mile. Was Espinoza supposed to then allow Frosted to open up a clear lead on him...as you suggested in a prior post? How was Espinoza to know that a horse like Frosted would be capable of running American Pharoah into the ground...after such mild opening fractions? How often do you see pace setters relinquish an easy early lead...in order to make another push for the lead in the latter stages of the race?

It's one thing to say that Lezcano sacrificed his chances for a higher spot by riding Frosted the way he did...but to blame Espinoza for his reaction is unfair, IMO.

[thaskalos]

Did he get beat fair and square?

Of course!

But what's being discussed here is how well he ran relative to the rest of that Travers group and ultimately how that stacks up against the Classic field.

The idea is to figure out how well he ran that day. In order to do that, you HAVE TO consider all aspects of his trip. That includes how much pressure he was under, which paths were best, which path he raced on etc... and how that compares to the other horses and what might be considered a more neutral trip.

That's not making an excuse for the horse because you are a fan.

That's saying that he was better than the winner that day and perhaps a lot better than the winner that day if the rail path was indeed a bit off. He was used hard putting away Frosted and may have been on an inferior path while doing it. So you should consider that in your appraisal of his fair odds in the Classic where a trip like that is not as likely given that he is rateable and we can assume an honest racetrack until we see otherwise.
I must have missed your proof that the rail path was not the place to be in that race.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for cleaning up this thread cj. That's what we're going to do from now on. Earn our money as mods...just delete crap on site.

If they don't like it, this place will have zero people in it soon enough and then we can rest easy... :lol: :lol: :lol:

[thaskalos]

Thanks for cleaning up this thread cj. That's what we're going to do from now on. Earn our money as mods...just delete crap on site.

If they don't like it, this place will have zero people in it soon enough and then we can rest easy... :lol: :lol: :lol:
Sure...there you go, thinking only of yourself. YOU will rest easy once people stop posting on this site. But what about us...who have gotten used to arguing about these things?

[cj]

Sure...there you go, thinking only of yourself. YOU will rest easy once people stop posting on this site. But what about us...who have gotten used to arguing about these things?

The stuff that was deleted was juvenile at best and had nothing to do with the thread. We all get sucked into it sometimes, but oh well, it happens. It isn't tough to clean up.

[cj]

This is a great race coming up...and lame excuses don't do it justice, IMO.

I agree. One thing I'd add is that Keeneland is not your Dad's Keeneland. It is not speed friendly at all. If you win on the front, it is earned.

[thaskalos]

The stuff that was deleted was juvenile at best and had nothing to do with the thread. We all get sucked into it sometimes, but oh well, it happens. It isn't tough to clean up.
Just kidding with Pa, Cj...I agree with you. There is plenty of juvenile stuff that we all get involved in...even though we all know better. I am still trying to figure out why... :)

[classhandicapper]

I must have missed your proof that the rail path was not the place to be in that race.

The evidence for biases is rarely conclusive except for the most extreme days. That day was far from extreme.

Even if I posted my spreadsheet for the day, it would not be proof. You might not agree with my assessment of some of the horses I felt disappointed or the subsequent performances of the horses I expected to improve next out. I have a different view on biases than the prevailing wisdom. So then we'd be arguing those races and ideas. :lol:

I'm throwing it out there because it's my handicapping opinion that the preponderance of evidence so far suggests AP would have been better off if he had Frosted's outside trip or was further out on the track if inside him.

[thaskalos]

The evidence for biases is rarely conclusive except for the most extreme days. That day was far from extreme.

Even if I posted my spreadsheet for the day, it would not be proof. You might not agree with my assessment of some of the horses I felt disappointed or the subsequent performances of the horses I expected to improve next out. I have a different view on biases than the prevailing wisdom. So then we'd be arguing those races and ideas. :lol:

I'm throwing it out there because it's my handicapping opinion that the preponderance of evidence so far suggests AP would have been better off if he had Frosted's outside trip or was further out on the track if inside him.
You are a serious guy, and, if this is your opinion, then I am obligated to respect it...and I will no longer belabor the topic. :ThmbUp: :)

[cbp]

Espinoza thought that he was on a superstar horse...which is what the Pharoah was considered to be at that time. Superstar horses are sometimes riden aggressively...just as Secretariat was...when he -- a confirmed stretch runner -- was asked to go wire-to-wire in the Belmont Stakes. The Pharoah went to the lead in the Travers...and traveled a leisurely half mile. Was Espinoza supposed to then allow Frosted to open up a clear lead on him...as you suggested in a prior post? How was Espinoza to know that a horse like Frosted would be capable of running American Pharoah into the ground...after such mild opening fractions? How often do you see pace setters relinquish an easy early lead...in order to make another push for the lead in the latter stages of the race?

It's one thing to say that Lezcano sacrificed his chances for a higher spot by riding Frosted the way he did...but to blame Espinoza for his reaction is unfair, IMO.


You're repeating much of my content. Espinosa gave Frosted too much credit and wanted to win like a super horse would. If he believes he can get Frosted whenever he wants in the stretch, he doesn't beat the shit out of AP and set it up for KI. Some jocks get this ride done, some don't. Some conserve their horses and don't senselessly punish them. Espinosa in NOT one of those jocks. He got the horse beat, IMO. The point is that even after getting worked over by Frosted/the pace, this horse was still good enough to get it done with a good ride. He got something significantly less than that.

You're fixated on Frosted getting a worse trip. They got comparable trips and Frosted spit it out.

Tired of repeating myself on my phone keyboard. Either you get it or you don't

[thaskalos]

You're repeating much of my content. Espinosa gave Frosted too much credit and wanted to win like a super horse would. If he believes he can get Frosted whenever he wants in the stretch, he doesn't beat the shit out of AP and set it up for KI. Some jocks get this ride done, some don't. Some conserve their horses and don't senselessly punish them. Espinosa in NOT one of those jocks. He got the horse beat, IMO. The point is that even after getting worked over by Frosted/the pace, this horse was still good enough to get it done with a good ride. He got something significantly less than that.

You're fixated on Frosted getting a worse trip. They got comparable trips and Frosted spit it out.

Tired of repeating myself on my phone keyboard. Either you get it or you don't

I still don't get it...

[nijinski]

Read the other day something Bill Mott said . There are 1000 ways a a horse can lose a race , Dayjur was 1001 . Almost there in the 90 Sprint but for that shadow. Looking back , we lost some fine horses running for the Cup . Even in that race. Let's hope those who show up are happy and healthy and and we see clean safe racing . For me win or lose AP is still the 3 yo champ . I'd like to see him win but if he gets beat he's still that champ for me . we have a very exciting day coming up , once again.

[classhandicapper]

You are a serious guy, and, if this is your opinion, then I am obligated to respect it...and I will no longer belabor the topic. :ThmbUp: :)


By the way, I'm not a big Stopchargingmaria fan, but she had a somewhat similar trip to AP going shorter and we'll get to see her run back before AP. If she runs an improved effort (not necessarily winning), I would mark that down as more evidence. If she's bad next out, not so much.

[Tall One]

Just briefly off topic..company I work for is handling all the printing for the BC and I'm getting ready to ship out the betting challenge signage to:

SA, DMR, BEL, and GP. If you see them up, you know who got them there.

Carry on.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

You're repeating much of my content. Espinosa gave Frosted too much credit and wanted to win like a super horse would. If he believes he can get Frosted whenever he wants in the stretch, he doesn't beat the shit out of AP and set it up for KI. Some jocks get this ride done, some don't. Some conserve their horses and don't senselessly punish them. Espinosa in NOT one of those jocks. He got the horse beat, IMO. The point is that even after getting worked over by Frosted/the pace, this horse was still good enough to get it done with a good ride. He got something significantly less than that.

You're fixated on Frosted getting a worse trip. They got comparable trips and Frosted spit it out.

Tired of repeating myself on my phone keyboard. Either you get it or you don't

This reminds me of myself trying to argue that Easy Goer got beat in the Preakness and Classic 'cause Pat Day didn't get him out of the gate cleanly. If a horse is great, he'll overcome a crappy ride. So this tells me AP ain't great, yet.

Since it's been 25 years since the Derby winner took down the Classic, I'll be looking elsewhere. Perhaps at the 3YO Euro, Gleneagles, who shows up with a similar lifetime record as AP and was the winner of the "English Derby" this past spring, who's probably been facing better horses, and who will be a better price....

[whodoyoulike]

Espinoza thought that he was on a superstar horse...which is what the Pharoah was considered to be at that time. Superstar horses are sometimes riden aggressively...just as Secretariat was...when he -- a confirmed stretch runner -- was asked to go wire-to-wire in the Belmont Stakes. The Pharoah went to the lead in the Travers...and traveled a leisurely half mile. Was Espinoza supposed to then allow Frosted to open up a clear lead on him...as you suggested in a prior post? How was Espinoza to know that a horse like Frosted would be capable of running American Pharoah into the ground...after such mild opening fractions? How often do you see pace setters relinquish an easy early lead...in order to make another push for the lead in the latter stages of the race?

It's one thing to say that Lezcano sacrificed his chances for a higher spot by riding Frosted the way he did...but to blame Espinoza for his reaction is unfair, IMO.

I don't think Secretariat was ridden aggressively in the Belmont that was all him.

And, the Travers fractions to the 1/2 were okay not mild (unless you want to let us in on what you consider is okay for a 10f race). Espinoza's split decision to go with Frosted was a mistake. He should have pressed him not the other way around, IMO. He underestimated Frosted's speed and how long he was capable of maintaining it.

[ronsmac]

This reminds me of myself trying to argue that Easy Goer got beat in the Preakness and Classic 'cause Pat Day didn't get him out of the gate cleanly. If a horse is great, he'll overcome a crappy ride. So this tells me AP ain't great, yet.

Since it's been 25 years since the Derby winner took down the Classic, I'll be looking elsewhere. Perhaps at the 3YO Euro, Gleneagles, who shows up with a similar lifetime record as AP and was the winner of the "English Derby" this past spring, who's probably been facing better horses, and who will be a better price....Cigar received a couple of crappy rides by Bailey and couldn't overcome them either. Some think he was great some just very good.

[thaskalos]

Espinoza's split decision to go with Frosted was a mistake. He should have pressed him not the other way around, IMO. He underestimated Frosted's speed and how long he was capable of maintaining it.

You might be right. After all...Frosted WAS widely considered to be the "other" early speed in the race.

[cbp]

This reminds me of myself trying to argue that Easy Goer got beat in the Preakness and Classic 'cause Pat Day didn't get him out of the gate cleanly. If a horse is great, he'll overcome a crappy ride. So this tells me AP ain't great, yet.



Easy Goer definitely got the worst of it tripwise - twice.
Great horses typically overcome crappy rides when the setup goes their way. They lose otherwise. That's the point, all these horses depend on trips. AP is not great. But he wins with a better ride. Of course, this applies to a ton of other losers.

[whodoyoulike]

You might be right. After all...Frosted WAS widely considered to be the "other" early speed in the race.

I'm not criticizing Espinoza's ride either because we've all been in situations where you have to make and live with your decisions (and I see these jockeys making them all the time). He's a great rider even though someone earlier inferred otherwise.

[raybo]

Espinosa fully expected AP to perform like he had been performing, and that's the way he rode him. He got a comfortable early lead, then Frosted started pressing, and Espinosa, thinking he had the same AP under him that he had had in previous races, expected AP to respond with that patented quick spurt to clear Frosted. That didn't happen, and Espinosa, I'm sure, knew right then that AP was not the same horse he had ridden in previous races. I will go my grave believing that AP did not have his A game that day, maybe not even his B game. And, that's the reason he couldn't hold off the winner in the stretch. He just didn't have anything left at the end. And the argument that he can't run 1 1/4m is bogus, he wouldn't have won that race if it was 1 1/8m either. He just didn't have it that day.

[Stillriledup]

Espinosa fully expected AP to perform like he had been performing, and that's the way he rode him. He got a comfortable early lead, then Frosted started pressing, and Espinosa, thinking he had the same AP under him that he had had in previous races, expected AP to respond with that patented quick spurt to clear Frosted. That didn't happen, and Espinosa, I'm sure, knew right then that AP was not the same horse he had ridden in previous races. I will go my grave believing that AP did not have his A game that day, maybe not even his B game. And, that's the reason he couldn't hold off the winner in the stretch. He just didn't have anything left at the end. And the argument that he can't run 1 1/4m is bogus, he wouldn't have won that race if it was 1 1/8m either. He just didn't have it that day.

Any thoughts on why he didnt have his A game? I don't remember hearing in the days leading up to the race that he was training poorly or was off form, this is a great horse so there's really no reason to not fire his A game shot, especially since he was 'training great' according to everyone who commented on his training.

[thaskalos]

Any thoughts on why he didnt have his A game? I don't remember hearing in the days leading up to the race that he was training poorly or was off form, this is a great horse so there's really no reason to not fire his A game shot, especially since he was 'training great' according to everyone who commented on his training.
So...according to you...there is no good reason for the best horse to ever lose a race?

They are not machines, SRU.

[Stillriledup]

So...according to you...there is no good reason for the best horse to ever lose a race?

They are not machines, SRU.

I'm looking for a reason. If he wasnt a machine wouldn't we have seen that mortality in his morning training?

[Stillriledup]

Btw, the smooth rollerball thread was locked, a horse he beat by a nose just ran with cement shoes and was an embarrassing 2nd. Maybe Ike Walker is headed to the Classic?? :D

[thaskalos]

I'm looking for a reason. If he wasnt a machine wouldn't we have seen that mortality in his morning training?
If the horse could talk...then it would give you a reason for losing the race.

[Stillriledup]

If the horse could talk...then it would give you a reason for losing the race.

I know some horses clunk without warning, but I wouldn't be doing my due diligence if I didnt dig as hard as I could for a reason.

[EMD4ME]

Espinosa fully expected AP to perform like he had been performing, and that's the way he rode him. He got a comfortable early lead, then Frosted started pressing, and Espinosa, thinking he had the same AP under him that he had had in previous races, expected AP to respond with that patented quick spurt to clear Frosted. That didn't happen, and Espinosa, I'm sure, knew right then that AP was not the same horse he had ridden in previous races. I will go my grave believing that AP did not have his A game that day, maybe not even his B game. And, that's the reason he couldn't hold off the winner in the stretch. He just didn't have anything left at the end. And the argument that he can't run 1 1/4m is bogus, he wouldn't have won that race if it was 1 1/8m either. He just didn't have it that day.

Raybo, like many others on here, I extremly respect your thoughts. Not setting up a but. However, I don't buy that he didn't have it that day.

Maybe Espinoza was also fooled like many others and actually believed the superstar efforts vs. inferior foes AND the truth came out when he couldn't shake Frosted. I shouldn't say maybe, more like, the truth DID come out when he couldn't shake him.

He's been stressed twice in his racing career (I'm not counting his debut).

Derby and Preakness. IMHO, he did run his A race on Travers day. He's just not that good. He probably developed earlier than his 3YO counterparts AND he had super dream trips in ALL TC RACES against foes who were either A) Inferior or B) compromised.

He looked awesome again in the Haskell. What did Competitive Edge come back to do? Upstart was obviously on the way down. The weak competition made him look good.

IMO, the only way this horse wins 10/31 is: he is left alone and wires in a cupcake trip & Beholder, the only pace company on paper turns out to have a medical issue/couldn't ship.

What infuriates me most about AP is the following: I am completely convinced this horse can not win a challenge (a real challenge, not Mr. Z pressing in a Hurricane or pressing Firing Line-Mr. Sunland) vs. real horses AND win a race.

However, despite the aformentioned thoughts, I am petrified of him getting a loose lead in the BCC, all jocks choking like NYRA jocks, he is chased at the 5/16 for the 1st time, him holding on and people saying he is a superhorse.

IT HAPPENED IN THE BOATMONT, I mean Belmont.

He is NOT a superhorse. The only way I would be impressed in the BCC is if he wins authoritatively (without a speed bias). (Not setting up an excuse if he wins............., it's just the simple truth)

If he wires the field, it better be like a runaway freight train in the lane.

If he sets a joke of a pace and holds on all out by a desperate margin, I don't want to hear crap from anyone that he is a superhorse. He would just be another lucky horse, like Bayern.

Nevertheless, it won't happen. I see him loose. I see him losing. And when he does, I don't want to hear, he was gutsy. People have long clamored for this amazing marvel of a superstar, they put all their eggs into 1 race vs. older. If he loses by a nose, I don't want to hear he was valiant or some other crap. He avoided older in the JCGC/Awesome Again and said my legacy will be decided in the BCC.

Let's keep the Travers very simple. Lone speed. Fastest horse by A LOT. No dead rail (Runhappy proved that 90 minutes prior). Jogged for 5/8, couldn't put away a foe who he supposedly was monstrously better than and hold off another inferior foe in harness time (5th quarter).

He looks like a "trap" to me on Halloween.

[cj]

Derby and Preakness. IMHO, he did run his A race on Travers day. He's just not that good. He probably developed earlier than his 3YO counterparts AND he had super dream trips in ALL TC RACES against foes who were either A) Inferior or B) compromised.

He looked awesome again in the Haskell. What did Competitive Edge come back to do? Upstart was obviously on the way down. The weak competition made him look good.

IMO, the only way this horse wins 10/31 is: he is left alone and wires in a cupcake trip & Beholder, the only pace company on paper turns out to have a medical issue/couldn't ship.

What infuriates me most about AP is the following: I am completely convinced this horse can not win a challenge (a real challenge, not Mr. Z pressing in a Hurricane or pressing Firing Line-Mr. Sunland) vs. real horses AND win a race.

However, despite the aformentioned thoughts, I am petrified of him getting a loose lead in the BCC, all jocks choking like NYRA jocks, he is chased at the 5/16 for the 1st time, him holding on and people saying he is a superhorse.

IT HAPPENED IN THE BOATMONT, I mean Belmont.

He is NOT a superhorse. The only way I would be impressed in the BCC is if he wins authoritatively (without a speed bias). (Not setting up an excuse if he wins............., it's just the simple truth)

If he wires the field, it better be like a runaway freight train in the lane.

If he sets a joke of a pace and holds on all out by a desperate margin, I don't want to hear crap from anyone that he is a superhorse. He would just be another lucky horse, like Bayern.

Nevertheless, it won't happen. I see him loose. I see him losing. And when he does, I don't want to hear, he was gutsy. People have long clamored for this amazing marvel of a superstar, they put all their eggs into 1 race vs. older. If he loses by a nose, I don't want to hear he was valiant or some other crap. He avoided older in the JCGC/Awesome Again and said my legacy will be decided in the BCC.

Let's keep the Travers very simple. Lone speed. Fastest horse by A LOT. No dead rail (Runhappy proved that 90 minutes prior). Jogged for 5/8, couldn't put away a foe who he supposedly was monstrously better than and hold off another inferior foe in harness time (5th quarter).

He looks like a "trap" to me on Halloween.

Dream trip in the Derby is ludicrous as is calling Firing Line Mr. Sunland, like he hadn't run very well before that.

What will it mean if Keen Ice wins the Classic?

[raybo]

Any thoughts on why he didnt have his A game? I don't remember hearing in the days leading up to the race that he was training poorly or was off form, this is a great horse so there's really no reason to not fire his A game shot, especially since he was 'training great' according to everyone who commented on his training.

Nope, but then there doesn't have to be a reason for less than optimum performances. Living, breathing animals (and humans) can just be "off", for no known reason. Good horses, supposedly in excellent condition, perform below what they should, every day, and sometimes more than one per race. That's part of the reason we can't pick more winners than we do.

[EMD4ME]

Dream trip in the Derby is ludicrous as is calling Firing Line Mr. Sunland, like he hadn't run very well before that.

What will it mean if Keen Ice wins the Classic?

We're going to base AP's "key running" lines off of firing line? The firing line? The drunk as a skunk in the 5th quarter of the Derby firing line? (Despite having another great trip in the Derby stalking 2 wide). What Derby that you remember ran 321 around the track in a 18, 19 or 20 horse field?

I like Keen Ice. I do. No buts. I too think he was a bit under rated for awhile. I feel his Travers is better than people give him credit for. He did work AS WELL in the 3rd/4th Q of that race AND he finished a smidgen faster than AP/Frosted.

He is obviously improved and could win. Tonalist is my sole A, Beholder and Keen Ice are my 2 B's in picks.

To answer your question CJ, if Keen Ice wins the BCC, AP's legacy will still leave him as a very average TC winner in the right place at the right time, with amazing circumstantial benefits (10 horses accordioned out of the race in the Derby-race flow in his ultimate favor in the Derby-321 finish. Preakness with 1 Entrymate taken out of his way and the only other contender drowining in a hurricane. Boatmont-No one going near him for the good of the game).

His connections put all the eggs (of his legacy) in 1 basket. Not me. If Keen Ice wins, it means AP lost the 1 race that he put his legacy basket in.

To answer your question. IMHO: Already bogus Legacy gets tarnished further.

[raybo]

Raybo, like many others on here, I extremly respect your thoughts. Not setting up a but. However, I don't buy that he didn't have it that day.

Maybe Espinoza was also fooled like many others and actually believed the superstar efforts vs. inferior foes AND the truth came out when he couldn't shake Frosted. I shouldn't say maybe, more like, the truth DID come out when he couldn't shake him.

He's been stressed twice in his racing career (I'm not counting his debut).

Derby and Preakness. IMHO, he did run his A race on Travers day. He's just not that good. He probably developed earlier than his 3YO counterparts AND he had super dream trips in ALL TC RACES against foes who were either A) Inferior or B) compromised.

He looked awesome again in the Haskell. What did Competitive Edge come back to do? Upstart was obviously on the way down. The weak competition made him look good.

IMO, the only way this horse wins 10/31 is: he is left alone and wires in a cupcake trip & Beholder, the only pace company on paper turns out to have a medical issue/couldn't ship.

What infuriates me most about AP is the following: I am completely convinced this horse can not win a challenge (a real challenge, not Mr. Z pressing in a Hurricane or pressing Firing Line-Mr. Sunland) vs. real horses AND win a race.

However, despite the aformentioned thoughts, I am petrified of him getting a loose lead in the BCC, all jocks choking like NYRA jocks, he is chased at the 5/16 for the 1st time, him holding on and people saying he is a superhorse.

IT HAPPENED IN THE BOATMONT, I mean Belmont.

He is NOT a superhorse. The only way I would be impressed in the BCC is if he wins authoritatively (without a speed bias). (Not setting up an excuse if he wins............., it's just the simple truth)

If he wires the field, it better be like a runaway freight train in the lane.

If he sets a joke of a pace and holds on all out by a desperate margin, I don't want to hear crap from anyone that he is a superhorse. He would just be another lucky horse, like Bayern.

Nevertheless, it won't happen. I see him loose. I see him losing. And when he does, I don't want to hear, he was gutsy. People have long clamored for this amazing marvel of a superstar, they put all their eggs into 1 race vs. older. If he loses by a nose, I don't want to hear he was valiant or some other crap. He avoided older in the JCGC/Awesome Again and said my legacy will be decided in the BCC.

Let's keep the Travers very simple. Lone speed. Fastest horse by A LOT. No dead rail (Runhappy proved that 90 minutes prior). Jogged for 5/8, couldn't put away a foe who he supposedly was monstrously better than and hold off another inferior foe in harness time (5th quarter).

He looks like a "trap" to me on Halloween.

I've never said he was a "superhorse", and only recall a couple who have. You're welcome to your opinion, that's cool. But, you've made the same kinds of arguments about that race more than once here, and many people still say he just wasn't himself that day. So, who's right, and who's wrong? Maybe both. There could be another reason, or combination of reasons why he failed that day. But, I can almost guarantee, he didn't lose that race while running as well as he could, that's pretty evident. He lost by running an inferior race to what he could have run.

[EMD4ME]

I've never said he was a "superhorse", and only recall a couple who have. You're welcome to your opinion, that's cool. But, you've made the same kinds of arguments about that race more than once here, and many people still say he just wasn't himself that day. So, who's right, and who's wrong? Maybe both. There could be another reason, or combination of reasons why he failed that day. But, I can almost guarantee, he didn't lose that race while running as well as he could, that's pretty evident. He lost by running an inferior race to what he could have run.

I respect everyone's opinion (except the attackers/haters). I could be completely wrong! LOL. As a fan, it's a great race. I love to root against the favorite, lone speed, class of the race etc. If he wins, I will be the first to congratulate the AP believers, just like I did seconds after the Belmont.

I'll give AP this: his run has created debate and that is good for the game. Good luck on the BC Raybo.

[Tall One]

Any thoughts on why he didnt have his A game? I don't remember hearing in the days leading up to the race that he was training poorly or was off form, this is a great horse so there's really no reason to not fire his A game shot, especially since he was 'training great' according to everyone who commented on his training.


We'd never know, but something was definitely bothering him that day. He was wringing wet from the paddock to the track. Same before loading into the gate, and from the camera angle on the clubhouse turn it showed a large amount of lather on him...more than anybody else at that juncture it seemed.

Again, how humid was it that day in Saratoga?

[Stillriledup]

We'd never know, but something was definitely bothering him that day. He was wringing wet from the paddock to the track. Same before loading into the gate, and from the camera angle on the clubhouse turn it showed a large amount of lather on him...more than anybody else at that juncture it seemed.

Again, how humid was it that day in Saratoga?

Great post. This might be why he wasnt as sharp.

[Cratos]

We're going to base AP's "key running" lines off of firing line? The firing line? The drunk as a skunk in the 5th quarter of the Derby firing line? (Despite having another great trip in the Derby stalking 2 wide). What Derby that you remember ran 321 around the track in a 18, 19 or 20 horse field?

I like Keen Ice. I do. No buts. I too think he was a bit under rated for awhile. I feel his Travers is better than people give him credit for. He did work AS WELL in the 3rd/4th Q of that race AND he finished a smidgen faster than AP/Frosted.

He is obviously improved and could win. Tonalist is my sole A, Beholder and Keen Ice are my 2 B's in picks.

To answer your question CJ, if Keen Ice wins the BCC, AP's legacy will still leave him as a very average TC winner in the right place at the right time, with amazing circumstantial benefits (10 horses accordioned out of the race in the Derby-race flow in his ultimate favor in the Derby-321 finish. Preakness with 1 Entrymate taken out of his way and the only other contender drowining in a hurricane. Boatmont-No one going near him for the good of the game).

His connections put all the eggs (of his legacy) in 1 basket. Not me. If Keen Ice wins, it means AP lost the 1 race that he put his legacy basket in.

To answer your question. IMHO: Already bogus Legacy gets tarnished further.
EMD4ME in all due respect you probably need another sabbatical.

Having said that, any horse that wins the TC is beyond "average" and his Travers performance was a damn good performance no matter how you or anyone else characterize his effort.

By the way your "Tonalist" appear to have a great case of "Belmontitis" and yet no comment from you about that. Don't get me wrong, me and my associates have picked up a few "Benjamins" from Tonalist wins.

[classhandicapper]

Again, how humid was it that day in Saratoga?

It was not uncomfortable.

[taxicab]

To answer your question SRU:
His campaign caught up with him.
It's very difficult to run in all of the high profile races without a break from the action.
Starting with his two races @ OP and then galloping through the TC/Haskell.......just brutal
Not only did he compete in those races,he dominated in them.
How could he not wear down ?
I'll probably go to Beholder or Honor Code wagering wise in the Classic because I think AP's grueling Spring/Summer tour may have taken it's toll on him,but where AP finishes in the Classic is irrelevant in my book.
He's already proven to be a Superhorse.

[EMD4ME]

EMD4ME in all due respect you probably need another sabbatical.

Having said that, any horse that wins the TC is beyond "average" and his Travers performance was a damn good performance no matter how you or anyone else characterize his effort.

By the way your "Tonalist" appear to have a great case of "Belmontitis" and yet no comment from you about that. Don't get me wrong, me and my associates have picked up a few "Benjamins" from Tonalist wins.

We can agree to disagree but please don't say I didn't make a comment about him not being 14/14.

Please see:

Post # 72 please.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126573&page=5&pp=15

[joeyp]

I THINK AP PULLS IT OFF HE WONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FRONT BATTLING THIS TIME BUT HE SIT 3RD OR 4TH , LETTING OTHERS BATTLE AND THEN AT TOP OF STRETCH START MOVING HARD AT THE LEADERS AND BRING HOME THE BACON. IM GOING TO KENTUCKY FOR 4 DAYS AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT I GOT ALL HIS UNCASHED WIN TICKETS, PROGRAMS, PINS AND BUTTONS ALL FRAMED ON MY WALL ITS MY TRIPLE CROWN SHRINE OF 2015 I WWILL BE ADDING THE BREEDERS CUP TICKET AND STUFF TO MY WALL WHEN I GET BACK.
ANY BODY HERE FROM PACE GOING? MAYBE WE CAN HOOK UP FOR A BEER

GOOD LUCK GUYS

[EMD4ME]

I THINK AP PULLS IT OFF HE WONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FRONT BATTLING THIS TIME BUT HE SIT 3RD OR 4TH , LETTING OTHERS BATTLE AND THEN AT TOP OF STRETCH START MOVING HARD AT THE LEADERS AND BRING HOME THE BACON. IM GOING TO KENTUCKY FOR 4 DAYS AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT I GOT ALL HIS UNCASHED WIN TICKETS, PROGRAMS, PINS AND BUTTONS ALL FRAMED ON MY WALL ITS MY TRIPLE CROWN SHRINE OF 2015 I WWILL BE ADDING THE BREEDERS CUP TICKET AND STUFF TO MY WALL WHEN I GET BACK.
ANY BODY HERE FROM PACE GOING? MAYBE WE CAN HOOK UP FOR A BEER

GOOD LUCK GUYS


I respect your love. It's awesome when you love a horse.

Question: When he sits 3rd or 4th, who will be 1st, 2nd and 3rd/4th?

[Tall One]

It was not uncomfortable.


Thanks, class. You read about horses that do wash out and still run like champs, but I don't think we've seen the colt react to the task at hand and the crowd like that before. He may have put away Frosted, who again, I think ran an honest race, but I don't know if Keen Ice would've been denied. Says a lot about AP's race...JMO.

And right on cue, local CBS station runs a commercial advertising Pioneerof the Nile... A for sure sign the BC is in town.

[Stillriledup]

I THINK AP PULLS IT OFF HE WONT GET CAUGHT UP IN THE FRONT BATTLING THIS TIME BUT HE SIT 3RD OR 4TH , LETTING OTHERS BATTLE AND THEN AT TOP OF STRETCH START MOVING HARD AT THE LEADERS AND BRING HOME THE BACON. IM GOING TO KENTUCKY FOR 4 DAYS AND I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT I GOT ALL HIS UNCASHED WIN TICKETS, PROGRAMS, PINS AND BUTTONS ALL FRAMED ON MY WALL ITS MY TRIPLE CROWN SHRINE OF 2015 I WWILL BE ADDING THE BREEDERS CUP TICKET AND STUFF TO MY WALL WHEN I GET BACK.
ANY BODY HERE FROM PACE GOING? MAYBE WE CAN HOOK UP FOR A BEER

GOOD LUCK GUYS

Bring a sign that says EMD4ME LOVES AP!!! :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

Bring a sign that says EMD4ME LOVES AP!!! :ThmbUp:

This......



IS a POST OF THE YEAR NOMINATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Cratos]

It was not uncomfortable.
Uncomfortable for whom?

The humidity was slightly above average and I believe horses react more detrimental to humidity than humans.

Additionally it should be pointed out that a 1100 pound animal toting 126 pounds and traveling at 35+ mph and going 1-1/4m will probably suffer a much different effect from the humidity than humans.

[EMD4ME]

Bring a sign that says EMD4ME LOVES AP!!! :ThmbUp:

I'm still laughing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Minutes later !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Stillriledup]

I'm still laughing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Minutes later !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:

It's a great sign you have to admit :D

[EMD4ME]

It's a great sign you have to admit :D

I do admit, I did admit it right away. No ego here SRU. Life can be hard but we have to laugh when we can :lol: :lol: :lol:

[nijinski]

I do admit, I did admit it right away. No ego here SRU. Life can be hard but we have to laugh when we can :lol: :lol: :lol:

And you say this as your're wearing your American Pharoah T Shirt ...We know you are. :lol:

[EMD4ME]

And you say this as your're wearing your American Pharoah T Shirt ...We know you are. :lol:

Alright, I admit it...... :eek:

I'm Caught!

Keep it coming, I'll be the one laughing as he chokes away to 5th in deep stretch :cool:

[EMD4ME]

I'm not a cali follower but do watch major stakes there.

However, after finally getting the BC PP's today (thanks Lonnie from DRF for helping me out, a GREAT ASSET TO DRF), I am looking at Smooth Roller for the 1st time (besides his last win where I made no bet but told everyone with ears to bet against the done Bayern while at the BIG A)

An interesting possibility as a C to me in picks. I've heard you guys discuss him but never looked till the pp's came out.

He was bum rushed by two different pocket trippers 3 back and resurged back up in a 6 1/5 last 1/16th. Then throw his race out 2 back for being fractious and having a bad stumble backwards.

Yes, he ran by a retired horse in his last but the closing time was pretty darn good.

Not saying I love him but he is definately a horse to look at as a C in picks or a B.

Might throw Frosted in as a C as well. PP draw will be huge. I hope AP draws inside and Beholder draws to his outside.

[cj]

We're going to base AP's "key running" lines off of firing line? The firing line? The drunk as a skunk in the 5th quarter of the Derby firing line? (Despite having another great trip in the Derby stalking 2 wide). What Derby that you remember ran 321 around the track in a 18, 19 or 20 horse field?



Firing Line was a very good horse coming in and ran very well to be second in the Derby. I prefer to look at the race as a whole, and certainly won't bury a horse because he was tired first time going 10f as a young 3yo.

Did it ever occur to you the top 3 finished that way because they were just a lot better than the others?

Frosted is decent and couldn't get there and while he has ran well later in the year, he certainly isn't as good as American Pharoah now just like he wasn't then. Keen Ice was improving but nowhere near the league of the top 3 back then. What other horses were there that were going to make a run? I don't think any have done squat since the Derby.

Usually even then you get some bomb clunk up and steal a share, but this group was just too good for that to happen. The pace wasn't slow for 1m 1/4, it just wasn't your typical Derby pace. With sprinters all but eliminated from the Derby with the new points system it is folly to compare older ones to the new versions.

[EMD4ME]

Firing Line was a very good horse coming in and ran very well to be second in the Derby. I prefer to look at the race as a whole, and certainly won't bury a horse because he was tired first time going 10f as a young 3yo.

Did it ever occur to you the top 3 finished that way because they were just a lot better than the others?

Frosted is decent and couldn't get there and while he has ran well later in the year, he certainly isn't as good as American Pharoah now just like he wasn't then. Keen Ice was improving but nowhere near the league of the top 3 back then. What other horses were there that were going to make a run? I don't think any have done squat since the Derby.

Usually even then you get some bomb clunk up and steal a share, but this group was just too good for that to happen. The pace wasn't slow for 1m 1/4, it just wasn't your typical Derby pace. With sprinters all but eliminated from the Derby with the new points system it is folly to compare older ones to the new versions.

Firing Line's claim to fame is winning the Sunland Derby.

2nd place finisher, Where's the moon ran 2nd with a 71B next out after that race.
3rd place finisher, Pain and Misery lost with a 93B

The rest couldn't crack a 70 in their next starts.

As a 2YO, Firing Line was in a 3 horse all out blanket finish with Dortmund and the legendary Mr.Z.......Mr. Z is NOT impressive.

Firing Line's other 3 yo races were defined by running with Dortmund.

I was not impressed by Dortmund.

There's no proof that Firing Line is a racehorse.

10, I repeat 10 horses out of 18 were accordioned to trip death in the opening furlong of the derby.

AP, sat off 2 weak need the leaders with an easy 3 wide trip. I'm sorry, I don't want to hear any trakus talk of 3 wide trips behind 2 speeds being some sort of death trip.

Ask most real championship horses (if they could speak LOL), a 3 wide stalk off 2 speeds is a good stress free trip.

I heard all summer how his 3 wide trip was brutal.

Then I hear his rail trip cost him in the Travers.

Come on people. People act like this horse deserves to be left alone jogging along with a 1 1/2 path trip and if he doesn't receive a stress free cupcake trip, it's some sort of tragedy or amazing accomplishment to overcome.

We've all been around a long time. We know gutsy, classy, amazing, great when we see it.

I have not seen 1 race that this horse ran that made me say WOW.

One came close, the Haskell. But after re looking at Competitive Edge and Upstart, it wasn't amazing at all.

Average MDSPWT horses look amazing when they face weak overmatched maiden claimers.

Same here, except the disparity in talent came in high profile races where this horse had amazing circumstances work in his favor.

More power to him.

If I I'm wrong, I lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands and people will spend all of 2016 mocking me.

Oh well, it's a parimutuel game and I respectfully have zero problem seeing something TOTALLY (I almost typed Tonalist :lol: ) different than others.

[EMD4ME]

EMD4ME in all due respect you probably need another sabbatical.

Having said that, any horse that wins the TC is beyond "average" and his Travers performance was a damn good performance no matter how you or anyone else characterize his effort.

By the way your "Tonalist" appear to have a great case of "Belmontitis" and yet no comment from you about that. Don't get me wrong, me and my associates have picked up a few "Benjamins" from Tonalist wins.

Cratos, I like you man but maybe you need a sabbatical (I say that in jest :) ) after missing my 34000 character post of Tonalist's 7 starts outside of Belmont ;)

No hard feelings. Knock em dead on BC Friday and Saturday.

[thaskalos]

If I I'm wrong, I lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands and people will spend all of 2016 mocking me.



I hope you are not dipping into the bank vault...

[Cratos]

Cratos, I like you man but maybe you need a sabbatical (I say that in jest :) ) after missing my 34000 character post of Tonalist's 7 starts outside of Belmont ;)

No hard feelings. Knock em dead on BC Friday and Saturday.
No hard feelings, I enjoy reading your posts and I particularly enjoy your anti-AP quips.

[EMD4ME]

I hope you are not dipping into the bank vault...

Heavens no, don't even kid around like that please. My soul could never ever do that. Besides, at my level, there is no access to money.

Yes, I could lose thousands out of my pocket next week and I'm ok with that. You put your chips down when you have cards, especially when the price is right.

Songbird and AP are both bet againsts for me. Should be a fun day!

[joeyp]

4 more days and im off to lexington i hope i have a wheel barrel to carry out my winnings lol or maybe bring my harmonica and play for change lol

[EMD4ME]

4 more days and im off to lexington i hope i have a wheel barrel to carry out my winnings lol or maybe bring my harmonica and play for change lol

Nice :) Good luck joeyp. Will you keep us abreast of the happenings, like Burnsy did?

[Kash$]

Beholder has run 1 race fast enough in 2 years to win this race..

Can she win who knows she wont get a dime of my money.Underlay

[classhandicapper]

EMD4ME,

Two things.

1. I respect your opinion a lot based on your commentary here, but I think the debates have made you dig in so hard on your negative position you aren't seeing this crop or AP in an unbiased way anymore.

2. When they switch over to Aqueduct would you like to hang out some Saturday and talk races?

[Mc990]

Been lurking here for a while and figured I'd jump in with my 2 cents on the Classic. In my opinion, this is one of those rare occasions in this difficult game where there is a huge advantage to be leveraged. To me, Tonalist lays over this field and he won't be the favorite (not even close). I know some will say he is just a Belmont horse for course but his figures/sheet argue strongly against that. He shows up every time and runs huge. Clement appears to have been pointing towards this race since the start of the year and I trust his horses to run their race on BC day.

As others have pointed out, he lost all chance in last year's Classic when he caught a speed favoring surface. For my money, I'd be surprised if we see that this year at Keeneland.

Beholder, AP, KI and HC all have a race or 2 that would put them in the mix but I have to question whether or not any are going to throw their best next Saturday. KI is the one I'd be most concerned with but he looks primed to bounce and even if he runs back to his last, he's no sure thing. HC does not look like a horse who will relish 10F. Beholder has been recently treated with antibiotics and is a toss based on likely odds anyways. AP could contend if he gets back to his top with a 1W trip but lets be honest, after the grueling triple crown crown campaign, it should be no surprise if this one spits it out at the top of the stretch.

At off odds of likely 3x his true odds in this race, Tonalist will be the key to my day. Pick 4 and pick 6 single.

Good luck to everyone next weekend! Best 2 sporting days of the year IMO.

On a side note, I'm having a heck of a time getting past the Euros in the Turf and Mile. The Americans just look a bit under par this year and the Euros seem like the strongest bunch we've seen in quite some time. Would love to hear from anyone who follows European racing regularly.

[Vinnie]

Espinosa fully expected AP to perform like he had been performing, and that's the way he rode him. He got a comfortable early lead, then Frosted started pressing, and Espinosa, thinking he had the same AP under him that he had had in previous races, expected AP to respond with that patented quick spurt to clear Frosted. That didn't happen, and Espinosa, I'm sure, knew right then that AP was not the same horse he had ridden in previous races. I will go my grave believing that AP did not have his A game that day, maybe not even his B game. And, that's the reason he couldn't hold off the winner in the stretch. He just didn't have anything left at the end. And the argument that he can't run 1 1/4m is bogus, he wouldn't have won that race if it was 1 1/8m either. He just didn't have it that day.

100% agree with your assessment Raybo.... :) Was Secretariat probably at 100% when he lost to Onion? More than likely, it is safe to assume that he was not even close. He (AP) is a horse. He is a living and breathing entity. He is not a machine, and therefore, he will not always run like it at all times. Here is a horse that has no problem literally cruising along at 43 and 109 or so for 6 furlongs, essentially cruising, then, all of a sudden he is seemingly "under pressure" at a pedestrian 48 or so for the half. Quite simply, it just doesn't make any sense. He is a wonderful/terrific horse, but, no horse can feel at his or her best virtually all of the time. You are correct, he just simply wasn't on his "A" Game that day.

[overthehill]

I dont agree about that pacific classic field not being grade 1 caliber. I think that Beholder is an amazing mare. Going into this race I would have to include her among the top 5 mares that I have ever seen on a racetrack. Of the horses i have seen the only comparable to me is Spectacular Bid. He had tractable speed , was a push button horse and could win at almost any distance.

Right now despite being a triple crown winner, I would not rate AP in my top 25 horses
I think he beat up on a group of mediocre horses and on top of that I think 1 1/4 is a stretch for him. I suspect that if Beholder runs her race, the outcome isnt going to be close. I make her 6/5 to win the race.

I would say the other horse i give an upset chance to is honor code, who i think is a superb miler, but i could be wrong and perhaps he goes long ok.

[cbp]

What Espinosa expected and what he got were quite different. His comments after the race were that AP was not himself and he knew this early in the race. Yet some would still claim that riding him as usual was acceptable.

And, for the last time, Secretariat was on a DEAD RAIL in the Whitney

[Stillriledup]

What Espinosa expected and what he got were quite different. His comments after the race were that AP was not himself and he knew this early in the race. Yet some would still claim that riding him as usual was acceptable.

And, for the last time, Secretariat was on a DEAD RAIL in the Whitney

I always question jocks who blame the horse after a loss, of course he's going to say the horse wasnt himself, it just seems odd when a jock gets beat on a heavy fave in a stakes race it's because the horse wasnt himself (vs being himself and just losing fair n square OR jock error)

Just gotta take these comments w grain of salt.

[thaskalos]

I always question jocks who blame the horse after a loss, of course he's going to say the horse wasnt himself, it just seems odd when a jock gets beat on a heavy fave in a stakes race it's because the horse wasnt himself (vs being himself and just losing fair n square OR jock error)

Just gotta take these comments w grain of salt.
Maybe Espinoza should have said that FROSTED "wasn't himself". :)

[letswastemoney]

Females have done well in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

1992 - Jolypha 3rd
2004 - Azeri 5th
2009 - Zenyatta 1st (synthetic version)
2010 - Zenyatta 2nd
2011 - Havre de Grace 4th

No, they don't win every time, but usually they're competitive. Even Azeri's 5th place finish was solid considering the horses in that 2004 field.

Beholder is as talented as the horses above, if not more. She will do great.

[Stillriledup]

Maybe Espinoza should have said that FROSTED "wasn't himself". :)

That would take a big Leap of faith to assume he knows what you are even talking about.

[depalma113]

Frosted worked :47 flat going the wrong way today.

[cbp]

Maybe Espinoza should have said that FROSTED "wasn't himself". :)
Fixated, are we? Plenty of horses can ruin races for better ones. Very few actually win these races. These appear to be accomplishments for you, however.

[thaskalos]

Fixated, are we? Plenty of horses can ruin races for better ones. Very few actually win these races. These appear to be accomplishments for you, however.
Did I forget to mention that I own a minority share of Frosted?

[thaskalos]

Fixated, are we? Plenty of horses can ruin races for better ones. Very few actually win these races. These appear to be accomplishments for you, however.

In my opinion, Frosted ran a BIG race in the Travers. And the fact that he finished as close to the Pharoah as he did was INDEED an "accomplishment", as far as I am concerned.

Of course, I am not pretending to know as much about this game as YOU do...so, I could easily be mistaken.

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted worked :47 flat going the wrong way today.

Without seeing the work/video (assuming Frosted worked clockwise while going on his left lead on the stretch) wouldn't be that surprising. He's usually a strong horse entering turns from the backstretch.

[Robert Fischer]

Females have done well in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

1992 - Jolypha 3rd
2004 - Azeri 5th
2009 - Zenyatta 1st (synthetic version)
2010 - Zenyatta 2nd
2011 - Havre de Grace 4th

No, they don't win every time, but usually they're competitive. Even Azeri's 5th place finish was solid considering the horses in that 2004 field.

Beholder is as talented as the horses above, if not more. She will do great.

That's an impressive list. Zenyatta 'batting cleanup' helps that lineup a great deal, however.

[cbp]

In my opinion, Frosted ran a BIG race in the Travers. And the fact that he finished as close to the Pharoah as he did was INDEED an "accomplishment", as far as I am concerned.

Of course, I am not pretending to know as much about this game as YOU do...so, I could easily be mistaken.

Chill. Frosted presents an interesting dilemma. He falls on his face, BIGTIME, in the Belmont. Then, runs significantly better in the Travers. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats AP in the Classic. He'll probably get a better trip. All he needs is to keep moving forward in his fitness.

If I play the race, I'll save with him on top in exotics. But I don't expect him to win or finish ahead of AP. His Belmont is so bad.

[cj]

Firing Line's claim to fame is winning the Sunland Derby.

2nd place finisher, Where's the moon ran 2nd with a 71B next out after that race.
3rd place finisher, Pain and Misery lost with a 93B

The rest couldn't crack a 70 in their next starts.

As a 2YO, Firing Line was in a 3 horse all out blanket finish with Dortmund and the legendary Mr.Z.......Mr. Z is NOT impressive.

Firing Line's other 3 yo races were defined by running with Dortmund.

I was not impressed by Dortmund.

There's no proof that Firing Line is a racehorse.

10, I repeat 10 horses out of 18 were accordioned to trip death in the opening furlong of the derby.

AP, sat off 2 weak need the leaders with an easy 3 wide trip. I'm sorry, I don't want to hear any trakus talk of 3 wide trips behind 2 speeds being some sort of death trip.

Ask most real championship horses (if they could speak LOL), a 3 wide stalk off 2 speeds is a good stress free trip.

I heard all summer how his 3 wide trip was brutal.

Then I hear his rail trip cost him in the Travers.

Come on people. People act like this horse deserves to be left alone jogging along with a 1 1/2 path trip and if he doesn't receive a stress free cupcake trip, it's some sort of tragedy or amazing accomplishment to overcome.

We've all been around a long time. We know gutsy, classy, amazing, great when we see it.

I have not seen 1 race that this horse ran that made me say WOW.

One came close, the Haskell. But after re looking at Competitive Edge and Upstart, it wasn't amazing at all.

Average MDSPWT horses look amazing when they face weak overmatched maiden claimers.

Same here, except the disparity in talent came in high profile races where this horse had amazing circumstances work in his favor.

More power to him.

If I I'm wrong, I lose thousands, maybe tens of thousands and people will spend all of 2016 mocking me.

Oh well, it's a parimutuel game and I respectfully have zero problem seeing something TOTALLY (I almost typed Tonalist :lol: ) different than others.

Firing Line's claim to fame is being the runner up in the Derby, not winning the Sunland Derby. That said, you are talking in circles.

Who cares what the horses Firing Line beat have run speed figure wise? What possible difference does it make? He won by like 20 and did it in fast time with a nice speed figure. Should he have won by 30 or 40? He backed it up by running second in the biggest race of the year.

Mr. Z was actually pretty good as a 2yo...more revisionist history. Sure, he didn't really progress much at 3, but that is hardly earth shattering news. It happens all the time. Just because he didn't turn into a good 3yo doesn't mean he stunk at two.

Dortmund was undefeated before the Derby. He won on the lead, off the lead, around one turn and around two. He also showed plenty of gameness and did it while running fast races. I'm not sure what else you want to be impressed.

As for 10 of the horses being eliminated in the Derby, not that I agree, what have they done since if the trip was so bad. The top four were WAY better than anyone else in that field, trip or not, and nothing since that day has changed that one iota. NONE of those have done diddly poo since other than Keen Ice and his trip was hardly brutal in the Derby.

Good luck with Tonalist...he's been a money burner. I find it amazing you find excuses for his losses that don't really carry much weight, but hammer on the one loss by American Pharoah that supposedly makes him average. Tonalist got beaten on the square by Effinex. Even with a mediocre ride he should beat Effinex. I mean really, Effinex? Really good New York bred, hardly a champion.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a bettor just like you are. There is zero chance I'll bet him in the Classic. Most likely I'll be betting Keen Ice. But I'm not going to pretend he isn't a great horse just because I might take a stab against him. He's run fast, he wins a lot, he's versatile, and he is also a money burner...of those that keep betting against him.

[thaskalos]

Chill. Frosted presents an interesting dilemma. He falls on his face, BIGTIME, in the Belmont. Then, runs significantly better in the Travers. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats AP in the Classic. He'll probably get a better trip. All he needs is to keep moving forward in his fitness.

If I play the race, I'll save with him on top in exotics. But I don't expect him to win or finish ahead of AP. His Belmont is so bad.
Let me see if I understand you here:

You say in your first paragraph that you "wouldn't be surprised" if Frosted beat AP in the Classic. But you follow that up by adding that you "don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP"...because "his Belmont is so bad". So...if you don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP...then such an outcome should be unexpected and surprising to you, right? Except that, in your initial paragraph quoted above...you state that such a development would NOT surprise you.

NOW do you see why I get confused by the things that you say?

[cj]

Chill. Frosted presents an interesting dilemma. He falls on his face, BIGTIME, in the Belmont. Then, runs significantly better in the Travers. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats AP in the Classic. He'll probably get a better trip. All he needs is to keep moving forward in his fitness.

If I play the race, I'll save with him on top in exotics. But I don't expect him to win or finish ahead of AP. His Belmont is so bad.

Falls on his face? He ran second while beating the Travers winner. It isn't like he was eased. He ran the fastest race of his life to that point and it wasn't good enough to beat the champion.

Oh the horror, what a disgrace he was that day!

[cj]

Let me see if I understand you here:

You say in your first paragraph that you "wouldn't be surprised" if Frosted beat AP in the Classic. But you follow that up by adding that you "don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP"...because "his Belmont is so bad". So...if you don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP...then such an outcome should be unexpected and surprising to you, right? Except that, in your initial paragraph quoted above...you state that such a development would NOT surprise you.

NOW do you see why I get confused by the things that you say?

There are a lot of contradictory circular references in this thread.

[thaskalos]

Falls on his face? He ran second while beating the Travers winner. It isn't like he was eased. He ran the fastest race of his life to that point and it wasn't good enough to beat the champion.

Oh the horror, what a disgrace he was that day!
The poster cbp is obviously someone who is not easily impressed... :rolleyes:

[Tom]

I am beginning to look forward to betting into this particular pool next week. :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Frosted has always appeared to be extremely talented but flawed.

Supposedly that was explained/cured by the throat/breathing procedure that he had following the race @ GP where he shut down entering the stretch after a big early move.

I'm not 100% sold, in spite of the stylish finish with the dream trip @ Parx.

He's talented (probably a 'B' talentwise compared to the A('s) in the Classic), but he likely needs to be handed the race on a silver platter to really capitalize.

At 10F with even a normal rugged trip I expect Frosted to flatten a bit late.

[cbp]

Let me see if I understand you here:

You say in your first paragraph that you "wouldn't be surprised" if Frosted beat AP in the Classic. But you follow that up by adding that you "don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP"...because "his Belmont is so bad". So...if you don't expect Frosted to finish ahead of AP...then such an outcome should be unexpected and surprising to you, right? Except that, in your initial paragraph quoted above...you state that such a development would NOT surprise you.

NOW do you see why I get confused by the things that you say?

Let me make it simpler. We all use models, of some sort, in our handicapping. We also have opinions that are not model related. These need not be in agreement and the trick is to reconcile them or discard one (or both). I wouldn't be surprised if Frosted won but I don't expect it. I'm giving more weight to the impression left by his Bel.

Is this fuzzy logic? :lol:

[cbp]

Falls on his face? He ran second while beating the Travers winner. It isn't like he was eased. He ran the fastest race of his life to that point and it wasn't good enough to beat the champion.

Oh the horror, what a disgrace he was that day!
He was supposed to win given his trip. Maybe that's why he ran faster. Could his trip have been easier? Surely you consider trips and not numbers solely. The Travers winner was given a gift. Let's see if he can run without a good setup. I would tend to doubt it.

[thaskalos]

Let me make it simpler. We all use models, of some sort, in our handicapping. We also have opinions that are not model related. These need not be in agreement and the trick is to reconcile them or discard one (or both). I wouldn't be surprised if Frosted won but I don't expect it. I'm giving more weight to the impression left by his Bel
You do know that the Belmont is run at an odd distance, right?

What exactly did you find so repulsive about Frosted's performance in the Belmont?

[thaskalos]

He was supposed to win given his trip. Maybe that's why he ran faster. Could his trip have been easier? Surely you consider trips and not numbers solely. The Travers winner was given a gift. Let's see if he can run without a good setup. I would tend to doubt it.
Frosted was "supposed to WIN"...and the second-place finish to a Triple Crown winner was considered to be a DISGRACE by you?

Wow...talk about a "tough crowd"... :rolleyes:

[elhelmete]

There are a lot of contradictory circular references in this thread.

Understatement of the year

[cj]

He was supposed to win given his trip. Maybe that's why he ran faster. Could his trip have been easier? Surely you consider trips and not numbers solely. The Travers winner was given a gift. Let's see if he can run without a good setup. I would tend to doubt it.

He was chasing a champion on a lone lead setting honest but not crazy fractions. I don't call that a dream trip.

I personally see no way Frosted beats American Pharoah unless some other horses do the dirty work and he picks up the pieces. He clearly doesn't have the talent of Pharoah.

[cbp]

Frosted was "supposed to win"...and the second-second-place finish to a Triple Crown winner was considered to be a DISGRACE by you?

Wow...talk about a "tough crowd"... :rolleyes:
You can't be this obtuse. The reference point is AP. The same AP that Frosted worked over in the Travers, according to you. Do you have the ability to sustain an argument? Can you focus?

[thaskalos]

You can't be this obtuse. The reference point is AP. The same AP that Frosted worked over in the Travers, according to you. Do you have the ability to sustain an argument? Can you focus?
Tell me the truth...do you even BET?

[cbp]

He was chasing a champion on a lone lead setting honest but not crazy fractions. I don't call that a dream trip.

I personally see no way Frosted beats American Pharoah unless some other horses do the dirty work and he picks up the pieces. He clearly doesn't have the talent of Pharoah.

I thought others did the dirty work yet he didn't pick up the pieces in the Bel. I strongly agree with your last sentence, however

[cbp]

Tell me the truth...do you even BET?
A lot more than you watch races. And I have much more to base my assumption on.

Gus trying another approach?

[thaskalos]

I thought others did the dirty work yet he didn't pick up the pieces in the Bel
WHO did WHAT "dirty work" in the Belmont?

How old are you, friend?